Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 18, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The G20 summit in Brazil is overshadowed by two major wars and Donald Trump's recent election victory. Heightened global tensions and uncertainty about an incoming Trump administration have tempered any expectations for a strongly worded statement addressing the conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. Experts instead anticipate a final document focused on social issues like the eradication of hunger — one of Brazil's priorities — even if it aims to include at least a mention of the ongoing wars.

Typhoons in the Philippines have caused tidal surges and displaced massive numbers of people.

Geopolitical tensions simmer as Cop29 heads into its second week in Baku, Azerbaijan. Climate advocates are urging world leaders to commit to a strong finance deal.

Japan and Ukraine have signed a security info-sharing pact to boost cooperation.

Russia-Ukraine War

The Russia-Ukraine war has dragged past its thousandth day, with hundreds of missiles and drones streaking across Kyiv's skies, killing at least two people, leaving a dozen more injured, and damaging the country's already beleaguered energy grid. Russia's relentless aerial bombardment has destroyed half of Ukraine's energy production capacity, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

With the harsh Ukrainian winter fast approaching, the country is already suffering from major energy shortfalls, while its outmanned and outgunned forces have been steadily ceding ground to the Kremlin's troops for weeks. Kyiv has implored its Western allies for help to rebuild its energy grid — a hugely expensive undertaking — and to supply its outgunned forces with more aerial defence weapons.

Many in Ukraine fear that Western help will not be as freely given following the imminent return of Trump to the White House in January. The Republican president-elect has frequently questioned the United States' backing for Ukraine, and campaigned with the promise of cutting a quick deal to end the war.

Joe Biden has authorised Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike hundreds of miles inside Russia for the first time, according to reports. The decision marks a major policy shift and comes after Russia warned that Moscow would see the move to allow the use of US-made missiles as an “escalation.” With Biden leaving office in two months, president-elect Donald Trump has indicated he will limit American support for Ukraine and pledged to end the war quickly once he takes office in January.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has campaigned for months to allow Ukraine’s military to use US weapons to hit Russian military targets far from its border, and retains important allies in both parties in Congress. He said Sunday evening that the strikes, if carried out, would "speak for themselves." But he did not confirm the authorization directly.

The Kremlin has said that if the United States allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike far into Russia, it would lead to a rise in tension and deepen the involvement of the United States in the conflict.

North Korea's Involvement in the Russia-Ukraine War

North Korea may end up sending Putin 100,000 troops for his war, according to people familiar with assessments made by some Group of 20 nations. The analysis is one of several on the evolving partnership between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said the people, speaking on condition of anonymity to talk about private discussions. They stressed that such a move wasn’t imminent and that military support at that scale — if it occurred — would likely happen in batches with troops rotating over time rather than in a single deployment.

Ukraine’s ambassador to South Korea made a similar assessment earlier this month. Dmytro Ponomarenko said in an interview with VOA that Kyiv expected up to 15,000 North Korean troops deployed to fight in Russia’s Kursk region – and possibly in occupied areas of eastern Ukraine – to rotate every few months.

Kim’s decision to send North Korean troops to join Russia’s fight against Ukraine has alarmed Kyiv’s allies, who’ve warned that it risks exacerbating what is already Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. They believe the deepening cooperation between Putin and Kim could also impact the security balance in the Indo-Pacific region, where there’s mounting rivalry between China and the US.

The issue will be raised by several allies at the G-20 Summit in Brazil this week including by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz when he meets Chinese President Xi Jinping, Bloomberg previously reported. Scholz told Putin Friday in a rare phone call that the deployment of North Korean troops was a “grave escalation” of the war against Ukraine.

Scholz will press the Chinese leader at their meeting in Rio on Tuesday to use his influence over Russia and North Korea to avoid further escalation in the war, according to German officials.

The North Korean deployment shows the war is becoming globalized and Scholz and Xi will need to discuss this new dimension of the conflict, the officials said.

Worries were also raised by allies at the APEC gathering in Lima, Peru, this past week, another person said.

Xi has been the biggest benefactor to Putin and Kim in recent years, and sees both leaders as partners in pushing against the US-led world order. But his government has remained silent publicly on the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia — a sign the Chinese president may be unhappy with the arrangement.

The Kim-Putin partnership risks adding economic pressure on China, just as Xi is bracing for potential disruption from tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump when he returns to the White House. It also undermines Beijing’s argument that the US shouldn’t have military alliances in the Indo-Pacific region.

China doesn’t “allow conflict and turmoil to happen on the Korean Peninsula” and it won’t “sit idly by when its strategic security and core interests are under threat,” Xi told US President Joe Biden at talks Saturday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima.

North Korea has so far sent more than 10,000 troops to fight alongside Putin’s army in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces have occupied part of the border territory since a surprise incursion in August. In return, Russia is providing money and helping North Korea increase its capabilities.

South Korea has said there’s a “high chance” that North Korea will seek cutting-edge technology transfers from Russia — including technology related to tactical nuclear weapons, intercontinental ballistic missiles, reconnaissance satellites and ballistic missile submarines.

As well as manpower, North Korea has also sent millions of rounds of artillery ammunition and other weapons to Russia. The Financial Times reported this week, citing Ukrainian intelligence, that Pyongyang has supplied long-range rocket and artillery systems to Russia.

US-China Relations

China’s leader Xi Jinping met for the last time with President Biden on Saturday, but was already looking ahead to President-elect Donald Trump and his "America first" policies, saying Beijing "is ready to work with a new U.S. administration."

During their talks on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru, Xi cautioned that a stable China-U.S. relationship was critical not only to the two nations but to the "future and destiny of humanity."

Without mentioning Trump’s name, Xi appeared to signal his concern that the incoming president’s protectionist rhetoric on the campaign trail could send the U.S.-China relationship into another valley.

"China is ready to work with a new U.S. administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences so as to strive for a steady transition of the China-U.S. relationship for the benefit of the two peoples," Xi said through an interpreter.

Xi, who is firmly entrenched atop China’s political hierarchy, spoke forcefully in his brief remarks before reporters. Biden, who is winding down more than 50 years of public service, talked in broader brushstrokes about where the relationship between the two countries has gone.

He reflected not just on the past four years but on the decades the two have known each other.

"We haven’t always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank. We’ve never kidded one another," Biden said. "These conversations prevent miscalculations, and they ensure the competition between our two countries will not veer into conflict."

Biden urged Xi to dissuade North Korea from further deepening its support for Russia’s war on Ukraine. The leaders, with top aides surrounding them, gathered around a long rectangle of tables in an expansive conference room at a Lima hotel.

They had much to discuss, including China’s indirect support for Russia, human rights issues, technology and Taiwan, the self-ruled democracy that Beijing claims as its own. On artificial intelligence, the two agreed on the need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons and more broadly improve safety and international cooperation of the rapidly expanding technology.

There’s much uncertainty about what lies ahead in the U.S.-China relationship under Trump, who campaigned promising to levy 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.

Already, many American companies, including Nike and eyewear retailer Warby Parker, have been diversifying their sourcing away from China. Shoe brand Steve Madden says it plans to cut imports from China by as much as 45% next year.

In a congratulatory message to Trump after his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, Xi called for the U.S. and China to manage their differences and get along in a new era. In front of cameras Saturday, Xi spoke to Biden — but it was unmistakable that his message was directed at Trump.

"In a major flourishing sci-tech revolution, neither decoupling nor supply chain disruption is a solution," Xi said. "Only mutual, beneficial cooperation can lead to common development. ‘Small yard, high fence’ is not what a major country should pursue."

Biden administration officials have said they would advise the Trump team that managing the intense competition with Beijing will likely be the most significant foreign policy challenge they will face.

On Saturday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden had reinforced to Xi "that these next two months are a time of transition" and that the president would like to pass off the U.S.-China relationship "in stable terms" to the new administration.

Biden has viewed his relationship with Xi as among the most consequential on the international stage and put much effort into cultivating it.

Trump's "America First" Policy

Trump's "America First" policy could shift the Horn of Africa policy and shake up Mideast diplomacy on Iran.

Trump's recent election victory and the imminent return of an America First doctrine may also hamper the diplomatic spirit needed for broad agreement on divisive issues at the G20 summit in Brazil.<co: 11>G20 summit in Brazil.</

Themes around the World:

Trade Policy Confidence and Export Support

Indian businesses report increased confidence in navigating trade policy impacts, with 77% optimistic about recent changes. Government measures including export promotion funds and credit guarantees aim to mitigate tariff effects and enhance competitiveness. This proactive stance supports export resilience and adaptation to evolving global trade regulations.

Economic Sanctions and Diplomatic Isolation

Iran faces persistent economic sanctions led by the US and Europe, significantly impacting its international trade and investment climate. Despite sanctions, Iran leverages diplomatic engagements with BRICS, SCO, and EAEU to mitigate sanctions effects, expand markets, and attract investment. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and anti-Iran resolutions at the IAEA hinder normalization and increase business risks.

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy and Fiscal Stimulus

The Bank of Japan's cautious approach to monetary tightening amid economic contraction contrasts with government plans for fiscal stimulus and tax reforms. This policy mix creates potential friction, influencing interest rates, currency valuation, and investor sentiment, with implications for domestic demand and Japan's economic recovery trajectory.

Financial Market Volatility and Risk Accumulation

Recent market volatility reflects deep-rooted financial risks including high corporate debt, shadow banking, and speculative asset bubbles in AI and cryptocurrencies. These systemic vulnerabilities pose risks to market stability and investor confidence, with potential spillovers into global trade and investment environments.

Trade Deficit Narrowing and Export Expansion

Egypt's trade deficit narrowed by 16% to $26.3 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, driven by a 19% surge in non-oil exports to $40.6 billion. Key export markets include UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Italy, and the US. Growth in building materials, chemicals, food, and engineering sectors underscores Egypt's improving global trade competitiveness.

Stock Market Surge Driven by Retail Investors

Pakistan's KSE-100 index surged 40% in 2025, fueled by retail investors seeking alternatives amid stagnant property prices and low deposit rates. Improved economic indicators, fiscal reforms, and political stability under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir have boosted confidence. However, inflation and geopolitical tensions remain risks, and foreign investors have been net sellers.

U.S. Monetary Policy Divergence

Federal Reserve officials exhibit sharp disagreements over inflation persistence versus weak hiring, complicating interest rate cut prospects. Hawkish rhetoric contrasts with dovish signals, creating market uncertainty. This divergence affects dollar strength, equity valuations, and risk asset flows, with potential spillovers into global liquidity conditions and investment strategies, especially in sensitive sectors like banking and technology.

Taiwan's AI-Driven Economic Boom and Inequality

Taiwan's economy is surging with 7-8% GDP growth driven by AI and semiconductor exports. However, wealth gains are unevenly distributed, with tech sector prosperity contrasting stagnant wages and subdued consumer confidence in traditional sectors. This economic divergence poses challenges for social cohesion and sustainable domestic demand.

Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Oil Markets

Heightened geopolitical risks, including Iran's seizure of a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine, have injected volatility into global oil markets. Iran's actions threaten critical energy chokepoints, potentially disrupting supply chains and elevating oil prices, affecting global energy security and trade flows.

Robust Economic Growth Outlook

India is projected to lead emerging markets with a GDP growth of 7% in 2025, driven by strong domestic demand and resilience amid global uncertainties. This growth underpins investor confidence, supports corporate earnings, and enhances India's attractiveness for foreign direct investment, bolstering its position as a key player in global trade and investment strategies.

Strategic Focus on Green and Digital Transitions

France prioritizes investments in ecological transition, renewable energy, AI, and digital infrastructure, exemplified by projects like large data centers and solar panel factories. These sectors are deemed strategic for future economic resilience, positioning France to capitalize on emerging technologies despite current challenges.

Credit Rating Outlook Upgrade

S&P Global revised Israel's credit outlook from negative to stable, maintaining its A rating. This upgrade signals enhanced fiscal stability and monetary flexibility, reducing borrowing costs and risk premiums. Improved creditworthiness bolsters investor confidence, facilitates capital market access, and supports sustainable public finance management amid geopolitical challenges.

Housing Market Vulnerabilities

Rising high-risk mortgage lending and elevated household debt levels pose significant risks to Australia's banking system. APRA is monitoring these trends closely, considering macroprudential measures such as debt-to-income limits to curb speculative lending, aiming to prevent systemic financial instability linked to the housing sector.

Fiscal Discipline and Post-2026 Challenges

Goldman Sachs warns Brazil faces a fiscal tightening post-2026, requiring a primary surplus above 2.5% of GDP to stabilize debt. This fiscal constraint limits government spending flexibility, affecting infrastructure investment, social programs, and overall economic growth prospects, posing risks for long-term investor confidence.

Geopolitical Risks Impacting Forex and Trade

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in South Asia, the Middle East, and US-China relations introduce volatility in the Indian Rupee and trade flows. Potential conflicts and trade disputes can disrupt supply chains and increase currency risk, necessitating vigilant risk management by traders and businesses to mitigate adverse impacts on investment and operations.

U.S.-Taiwan Trade and Defense Dynamics

U.S. policies under Trump, including tariffs on Taiwanese goods and demands for relocating semiconductor production to the U.S., complicate Taiwan's economic and strategic calculus. Concurrently, increased U.S. arms sales and defense spending pressures aim to bolster Taiwan's military readiness amid rising Chinese threats, intensifying cross-strait tensions and impacting trade relations.

Emergence of Quantitative Finance Sector

Israel is increasingly leveraging its technical talent and AI capabilities to develop quantitative finance technologies, aiming to become a global exporter of advanced investment models and systematic trading strategies. This sector's growth diversifies Israel's economic base, attracts foreign capital, and integrates Israeli innovation into global financial markets.

Vietnam's FDI Surge and Quality Shift

Vietnam attracted $31.5 billion in FDI in the first 10 months of 2025, a 15.6% increase year-on-year, with a focus on manufacturing, electronics, AI, and semiconductors. This shift towards high-tech and quality investments reflects Vietnam's growing appeal amid global production re-positioning and supply chain diversification away from China, enhancing its role in global value chains.

Advancements in Crypto Regulation

Brazil has emerged as a pioneer in Latin American crypto regulation, establishing clear legal frameworks and shared regulatory responsibilities between the Central Bank and Securities Commission. This structured oversight reduces operational uncertainty, attracts global exchanges, and fosters market growth, while addressing AML/CFT concerns and consumer protection, positioning Brazil as a regional fintech hub.

Currency Volatility Risks

In Turkey, currency exchange rate fluctuations are the foremost risk for businesses, causing significant financial strain. With a 73.3% impact on companies, this volatility affects operational costs, investment decisions, and profitability, necessitating robust risk management strategies to mitigate exposure and maintain competitiveness in international trade and investment.

Persistent Weak Korean Won and FX Volatility

The Korean won is expected to remain weak, trading above 1,400 per US dollar, reflecting structural economic challenges and sustained capital outflows. This prolonged currency depreciation no longer boosts export competitiveness due to diversified supply chains and overseas production, instead increasing import costs and domestic inflation pressures, complicating corporate planning and dampening economic growth prospects.

Ukraine's Critical Minerals Strategy

Ukraine is positioning itself as a strategic player in the global lithium and battery metals market, leveraging geological resources and policy reforms. The launch of lithium production sharing agreements aims to integrate Ukraine into Western supply chains, presenting long-term opportunities amid global demand growth for electric vehicles and energy storage, despite sector volatility and operational challenges.

Currency Volatility and Exchange Rate Fluctuations

The South African rand remains volatile despite recent credit rating upgrades and economic optimism. Exchange rate fluctuations affect import costs, export competitiveness, and foreign investment, with the USD/ZAR rate showing downward trends but susceptible to global liquidity and geopolitical tensions.

Government Emergency Investment Plan

President Sheinbaum is collaborating with the private sector, including business magnate Carlos Slim, to launch an emergency investment plan focused on infrastructure, housing, and connectivity. The plan involves new legislation to mobilize private capital for socially beneficial yet profitable projects, aiming to counteract economic slowdown and stimulate growth through public-private partnerships and increased infrastructure spending.

China's Global Lending Shift

China has redirected over 75% of its overseas loans to upper-middle and high-income countries, with the US as the largest recipient receiving $200 billion across 2,500 projects. This shift from developing nations to wealthy economies reflects Beijing's strategic focus on critical infrastructure, minerals, and high-tech sectors, raising concerns about economic leverage and supply chain control.

Shifts in Russian Energy Export Markets

Despite global pressure, China remains Russia's largest energy buyer, followed by India and Turkey, which have increased imports of oil and gas products. The EU's fossil fuel imports from Russia have decreased but persist, highlighting a complex energy trade landscape. These dynamics influence Russia's export revenues and geopolitical leverage, affecting global energy supply chains and investment flows.

Rupiah Redenomination Debate

The Indonesian government's plan to redenominate the rupiah faces criticism from economists who question its economic benefits and highlight potential costs. Concerns include lack of impact on productivity or growth, risks of resource misallocation, and the need to prioritize fundamental economic reforms over symbolic currency changes.

EU’s Tougher China Trade Stance

The EU is preparing a stringent economic security doctrine targeting China’s unfair trade practices and critical mineral dependencies. Germany, previously a moderating voice, now supports tougher measures including export controls and investment screening. This shift could enable the EU to counterbalance China’s industrial overcapacity and protect European strategic industries.

Nuclear Ambitions vs. Domestic Needs

Iran's prioritization of nuclear and military ambitions over addressing critical domestic shortages, including water and energy, highlights governance challenges. This imbalance fuels public discontent and raises questions about regime stability, impacting the investment climate and international diplomatic relations.

Construction Sector Growth and Urbanization

Brazil's construction market is expanding robustly, driven by urbanization, public-private partnerships, and sustainable development initiatives. Residential, commercial, and infrastructure projects are growing despite inflation and high borrowing costs. This sector growth supports economic development, creates investment opportunities, and influences supply chains in materials and labor markets.

Nord Stream Sabotage and Eurasian Energy Reshuffling

The 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosions severed a critical Russian gas supply to Europe, causing energy price spikes and forcing Europe to diversify towards costlier LNG imports. This infrastructure sabotage reshaped Eurasian energy geopolitics, increasing European energy costs and altering trade dependencies, with broad implications for regional economic stability.

Supply Chain and Material Cost Pressures

Taiwan's manufacturing sectors face rising costs due to volatile precious metal prices, including silver spikes affecting passive components and PCBs. These cost pressures prompt widespread price increases across supply chains, potentially impacting global electronics manufacturing and Taiwan's export competitiveness amid geopolitical uncertainties.

Expansion in Iraqi Market and Regional Trade

Iran aims to increase bilateral trade with Iraq to $20 billion within three years, leveraging its capacity to supply consumer goods, food, and industrial materials. Despite bureaucratic and regulatory challenges, Iraq remains a critical export market, underscoring the importance of modernizing trade infrastructure and strategic planning to maintain regional market share.

Geopolitical Risks and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

German policymakers and businesses grapple with the geopolitical risks of overreliance on China, especially amid export controls on rare earths and semiconductors. Supply chain disruptions threaten production continuity in key sectors like automotive and green technology. The government’s cautious 'de-risking' approach faces resistance from firms prioritizing market access, highlighting tensions between economic interests and national security concerns.

Export Contraction and Trade Surplus Narrowing

Indonesia's exports fell 2.31% year-on-year in October 2025 due to weakening demand from China and falling commodity prices, notably in mining shipments. This caused the trade surplus to narrow sharply to $2.4 billion. Despite this, Indonesia has maintained a trade surplus for 66 consecutive months, supported by sustained demand for palm oil, coal, and gold.

Political Volatility and Election Impact

Brazil faces heightened political volatility ahead of the 2026 elections, with right-wing opposition testing new presidential ticket strategies amid ongoing fraud probes involving key political figures. This uncertainty could delay key reforms, affect investor confidence, and influence fiscal discipline, impacting Brazil's macroeconomic stability and foreign investment inflows.