Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 18, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The G20 summit in Brazil is overshadowed by two major wars and Donald Trump's recent election victory. Heightened global tensions and uncertainty about an incoming Trump administration have tempered any expectations for a strongly worded statement addressing the conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. Experts instead anticipate a final document focused on social issues like the eradication of hunger — one of Brazil's priorities — even if it aims to include at least a mention of the ongoing wars.

Typhoons in the Philippines have caused tidal surges and displaced massive numbers of people.

Geopolitical tensions simmer as Cop29 heads into its second week in Baku, Azerbaijan. Climate advocates are urging world leaders to commit to a strong finance deal.

Japan and Ukraine have signed a security info-sharing pact to boost cooperation.

Russia-Ukraine War

The Russia-Ukraine war has dragged past its thousandth day, with hundreds of missiles and drones streaking across Kyiv's skies, killing at least two people, leaving a dozen more injured, and damaging the country's already beleaguered energy grid. Russia's relentless aerial bombardment has destroyed half of Ukraine's energy production capacity, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

With the harsh Ukrainian winter fast approaching, the country is already suffering from major energy shortfalls, while its outmanned and outgunned forces have been steadily ceding ground to the Kremlin's troops for weeks. Kyiv has implored its Western allies for help to rebuild its energy grid — a hugely expensive undertaking — and to supply its outgunned forces with more aerial defence weapons.

Many in Ukraine fear that Western help will not be as freely given following the imminent return of Trump to the White House in January. The Republican president-elect has frequently questioned the United States' backing for Ukraine, and campaigned with the promise of cutting a quick deal to end the war.

Joe Biden has authorised Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike hundreds of miles inside Russia for the first time, according to reports. The decision marks a major policy shift and comes after Russia warned that Moscow would see the move to allow the use of US-made missiles as an “escalation.” With Biden leaving office in two months, president-elect Donald Trump has indicated he will limit American support for Ukraine and pledged to end the war quickly once he takes office in January.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has campaigned for months to allow Ukraine’s military to use US weapons to hit Russian military targets far from its border, and retains important allies in both parties in Congress. He said Sunday evening that the strikes, if carried out, would "speak for themselves." But he did not confirm the authorization directly.

The Kremlin has said that if the United States allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike far into Russia, it would lead to a rise in tension and deepen the involvement of the United States in the conflict.

North Korea's Involvement in the Russia-Ukraine War

North Korea may end up sending Putin 100,000 troops for his war, according to people familiar with assessments made by some Group of 20 nations. The analysis is one of several on the evolving partnership between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said the people, speaking on condition of anonymity to talk about private discussions. They stressed that such a move wasn’t imminent and that military support at that scale — if it occurred — would likely happen in batches with troops rotating over time rather than in a single deployment.

Ukraine’s ambassador to South Korea made a similar assessment earlier this month. Dmytro Ponomarenko said in an interview with VOA that Kyiv expected up to 15,000 North Korean troops deployed to fight in Russia’s Kursk region – and possibly in occupied areas of eastern Ukraine – to rotate every few months.

Kim’s decision to send North Korean troops to join Russia’s fight against Ukraine has alarmed Kyiv’s allies, who’ve warned that it risks exacerbating what is already Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. They believe the deepening cooperation between Putin and Kim could also impact the security balance in the Indo-Pacific region, where there’s mounting rivalry between China and the US.

The issue will be raised by several allies at the G-20 Summit in Brazil this week including by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz when he meets Chinese President Xi Jinping, Bloomberg previously reported. Scholz told Putin Friday in a rare phone call that the deployment of North Korean troops was a “grave escalation” of the war against Ukraine.

Scholz will press the Chinese leader at their meeting in Rio on Tuesday to use his influence over Russia and North Korea to avoid further escalation in the war, according to German officials.

The North Korean deployment shows the war is becoming globalized and Scholz and Xi will need to discuss this new dimension of the conflict, the officials said.

Worries were also raised by allies at the APEC gathering in Lima, Peru, this past week, another person said.

Xi has been the biggest benefactor to Putin and Kim in recent years, and sees both leaders as partners in pushing against the US-led world order. But his government has remained silent publicly on the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia — a sign the Chinese president may be unhappy with the arrangement.

The Kim-Putin partnership risks adding economic pressure on China, just as Xi is bracing for potential disruption from tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump when he returns to the White House. It also undermines Beijing’s argument that the US shouldn’t have military alliances in the Indo-Pacific region.

China doesn’t “allow conflict and turmoil to happen on the Korean Peninsula” and it won’t “sit idly by when its strategic security and core interests are under threat,” Xi told US President Joe Biden at talks Saturday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima.

North Korea has so far sent more than 10,000 troops to fight alongside Putin’s army in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces have occupied part of the border territory since a surprise incursion in August. In return, Russia is providing money and helping North Korea increase its capabilities.

South Korea has said there’s a “high chance” that North Korea will seek cutting-edge technology transfers from Russia — including technology related to tactical nuclear weapons, intercontinental ballistic missiles, reconnaissance satellites and ballistic missile submarines.

As well as manpower, North Korea has also sent millions of rounds of artillery ammunition and other weapons to Russia. The Financial Times reported this week, citing Ukrainian intelligence, that Pyongyang has supplied long-range rocket and artillery systems to Russia.

US-China Relations

China’s leader Xi Jinping met for the last time with President Biden on Saturday, but was already looking ahead to President-elect Donald Trump and his "America first" policies, saying Beijing "is ready to work with a new U.S. administration."

During their talks on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru, Xi cautioned that a stable China-U.S. relationship was critical not only to the two nations but to the "future and destiny of humanity."

Without mentioning Trump’s name, Xi appeared to signal his concern that the incoming president’s protectionist rhetoric on the campaign trail could send the U.S.-China relationship into another valley.

"China is ready to work with a new U.S. administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences so as to strive for a steady transition of the China-U.S. relationship for the benefit of the two peoples," Xi said through an interpreter.

Xi, who is firmly entrenched atop China’s political hierarchy, spoke forcefully in his brief remarks before reporters. Biden, who is winding down more than 50 years of public service, talked in broader brushstrokes about where the relationship between the two countries has gone.

He reflected not just on the past four years but on the decades the two have known each other.

"We haven’t always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank. We’ve never kidded one another," Biden said. "These conversations prevent miscalculations, and they ensure the competition between our two countries will not veer into conflict."

Biden urged Xi to dissuade North Korea from further deepening its support for Russia’s war on Ukraine. The leaders, with top aides surrounding them, gathered around a long rectangle of tables in an expansive conference room at a Lima hotel.

They had much to discuss, including China’s indirect support for Russia, human rights issues, technology and Taiwan, the self-ruled democracy that Beijing claims as its own. On artificial intelligence, the two agreed on the need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons and more broadly improve safety and international cooperation of the rapidly expanding technology.

There’s much uncertainty about what lies ahead in the U.S.-China relationship under Trump, who campaigned promising to levy 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.

Already, many American companies, including Nike and eyewear retailer Warby Parker, have been diversifying their sourcing away from China. Shoe brand Steve Madden says it plans to cut imports from China by as much as 45% next year.

In a congratulatory message to Trump after his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, Xi called for the U.S. and China to manage their differences and get along in a new era. In front of cameras Saturday, Xi spoke to Biden — but it was unmistakable that his message was directed at Trump.

"In a major flourishing sci-tech revolution, neither decoupling nor supply chain disruption is a solution," Xi said. "Only mutual, beneficial cooperation can lead to common development. ‘Small yard, high fence’ is not what a major country should pursue."

Biden administration officials have said they would advise the Trump team that managing the intense competition with Beijing will likely be the most significant foreign policy challenge they will face.

On Saturday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden had reinforced to Xi "that these next two months are a time of transition" and that the president would like to pass off the U.S.-China relationship "in stable terms" to the new administration.

Biden has viewed his relationship with Xi as among the most consequential on the international stage and put much effort into cultivating it.

Trump's "America First" Policy

Trump's "America First" policy could shift the Horn of Africa policy and shake up Mideast diplomacy on Iran.

Trump's recent election victory and the imminent return of an America First doctrine may also hamper the diplomatic spirit needed for broad agreement on divisive issues at the G20 summit in Brazil.<co: 11>G20 summit in Brazil.</

Themes around the World:

Global Economic Order Shifts and Investment Climate

Australia's investment landscape is shaped by a fracturing global economic order marked by rising geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, and a shift from globalization to strategic economic security. This environment elevates market volatility and government intervention, influencing interest rates, capital flows, and investment priorities, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors.

Labor Reform: Transition to 40-Hour Workweek

Mexico is advancing legislation to reduce the standard workweek from 48 to 40 hours, with phased implementation and sector exemptions. This reform affects labor costs, productivity, and social dynamics, influencing operational planning and competitiveness for domestic and multinational companies.

Mining Sector Investment Incentives

The federal budget introduces mining tax incentives and a $2 billion sovereign wealth fund targeting critical mineral development. These measures aim to attract private and international capital, accelerate mine construction, and strengthen Canada's position in global clean-tech supply chains, fostering long-term industrial growth.

Robust Economic Growth and Resilience

Vietnam's GDP growth exceeded 8% in Q3 2025, with forecasts from HSBC and Standard Chartered raising expectations to 7.5-7.9% for the full year. This growth is driven by strong exports, resilient FDI inflows, and domestic demand recovery, positioning Vietnam as a rare bright spot amid global economic volatility and supply chain disruptions.

Infrastructure Investment Challenges

Australia leads globally in attracting infrastructure capital, particularly in renewables, data centers, and transmission networks. However, investor concerns about regulatory delays, environmental approvals, and high labor costs impede project execution. The government’s efforts to reform environmental legislation aim to balance ecological protection with faster approvals, critical for sustaining momentum in energy transition and economic development.

Regulatory and Bureaucratic Burdens

Excessive regulations, bureaucratic delays, and complex documentation requirements are stifling investment and innovation in Germany. The regulatory cost burden, estimated at €60 billion annually, undermines business efficiency, deters foreign investment, and hampers the modernization of industries, contributing to economic stagnation and competitive disadvantages.

Stock Market Growth and Liquidity

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) showed strong performance with a 16.83% rise in the Composite Stock Price Index through October 2025. Record daily transaction values and increased investor participation, including a surge in retail investors, reflect growing market depth and attractiveness for both domestic and foreign investors.

Deteriorating Public Sentiment and Social Unrest Risk

Economic hardship, inflation, and widening disparities fuel public discontent and increase the likelihood of protests. The government’s inability to alleviate economic pressures risks destabilizing social order, which could disrupt business operations and deter foreign investment due to heightened security concerns.

Challenges in Megaprojects and Gigaprojects

Saudi Arabia’s ambitious megaprojects, including NEOM and Trojena, face delays and budgetary recalibrations amid lower oil revenues and fiscal deficits. These challenges affect timelines for global events and investment flows, prompting a reassessment of spending priorities. The outcome influences supply chain development, infrastructure investment, and the Kingdom’s ability to meet Vision 2030 targets.

Stock Market Volatility and MSCI Index Concerns

Indonesian stocks experienced significant volatility due to MSCI’s proposed changes in free-float calculations, potentially reducing index weightings for key companies. This uncertainty affects foreign investor sentiment and market stability, highlighting governance and transparency challenges in Indonesia’s equity markets, which could influence foreign portfolio investment flows.

TSMC's Resilience to Rare Earth Export Bans

Despite Chinese export bans on rare earth minerals, TSMC asserts minimal impact on advanced semiconductor production due to diversified sourcing and stockpiles. However, indirect effects such as increased costs and supply chain adjustments remain concerns. The broader geopolitical risk of a Chinese invasion poses a far greater threat to Taiwan's chip manufacturing dominance and global tech supply chains.

Surge in Foreign Direct Investment

Thailand's Board of Investment reported a record 94% year-on-year increase in investment applications, reaching approximately US$42 billion in the first nine months of 2025. High-tech sectors such as digital infrastructure, electronics, and automotive parts dominate. This surge reflects growing investor confidence and Thailand's strategic role in global supply chains, especially in advanced manufacturing and green technologies.

Technological and AI Ambitions

Saudi Arabia is aggressively pursuing technological innovation and AI integration, showcased at the FII with deals involving AI firms like Humain. The Kingdom aims to become a regional AI leader, leveraging technology to drive economic diversification, enhance productivity, and attract tech investments, positioning itself competitively in the global digital economy.

Monetary Policy Divergence and Market Impact

Divergent monetary policies among major economies, with the US Federal Reserve cutting rates amid inflation concerns and other central banks pausing, create complex global financial conditions. These dynamics affect capital flows, commodity prices, and investment decisions linked to China and Asia.

US-Korea Trade Deal Spurs Capital Outflow Concerns

The US-Korea trade agreement, involving a $350 billion investment pledge with annual cash outflows capped at $20 billion, raises concerns about liquidity squeeze and won depreciation. South Korea must manage steady capital outflows to the US, balancing tariff reductions with potential currency volatility and maintaining economic stability amid ongoing trade negotiations.

Capital Outflows and Domestic Investment Weakness

South Korea's net foreign assets surged to over $1 trillion, driven by retail and institutional overseas investments. While strengthening external financial soundness, this trend weakens domestic capital markets, pressures the won, and exposes the economy to global risks. Declining domestic productivity and investment may undermine long-term growth prospects, necessitating reforms to boost local investment and productivity.

Geopolitical Strategic Pivot

Pakistan has transitioned from a peripheral player to a strategic balancer in regional geopolitics, becoming a pivotal actor in Middle East Security Architecture and Indo-Gulf corridors. This enhances its geopolitical relevance, attracting significant foreign investments and defense partnerships, but also increases its exposure to regional conflicts and diplomatic complexities impacting trade and investment stability.

Regional Economic Integration and Trade Potential

Cameroon's strategic location and diversified economy, anchored by the Port of Douala, position it as a vital trade hub under AfCFTA. Despite current challenges, opportunities exist for Nigerian fintech and banking firms to expand cross-border payment solutions, leveraging regional integration to enhance trade and investment.

Systemically Important Banking Sector Strength

Egypt's top banks have expanded their asset base and loan portfolios, maintaining strong financial soundness with additional capital buffers. These banks dominate deposits and profits, ensuring systemic stability and supporting credit growth across key sectors like construction, petroleum, and telecommunications.

Regulatory Burdens on Mining and Energy Sectors

Increasing regulatory complexity and environmental constraints are stifling Australia’s mining and energy sectors, including rare earths processing. Lengthy approval processes and opposition from various stakeholders delay projects, undermining Australia’s competitive advantage in resource extraction. This regulatory environment risks deterring investment and slowing the development of strategic minerals essential for technology and defense industries.

US-China Trade Tensions Escalate

The ongoing US-China trade war, marked by tariffs up to 155% and export controls, significantly disrupts global supply chains and investor confidence. Key sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and energy face uncertainty, impacting multinational corporations and global trade flows. These tensions drive market volatility and compel companies to reassess supply chain dependencies and investment strategies.

Stock Market Volatility and Political Influence

The Kospi index experienced sharp fluctuations, reaching record highs then plunging below 4,000 points. Political parties politicize market movements, while retail investors increasingly use leverage, raising systemic risk. Government efforts to boost the stock market contrast with strict real estate regulations, reflecting tensions between asset classes and potential financial instability.

Missile Stockpile Replenishment via Sanctions Loopholes

Iran is importing large quantities of sodium perchlorate from China, a precursor for solid missile propellant, exploiting a sanctions gray area. This replenishment effort signals a significant expansion of Iran's missile capabilities, raising geopolitical tensions and increasing risks for regional security, potentially triggering further sanctions and complicating foreign investment and trade relations.

Stock Market Rally and Investor Sentiment

The Nikkei 225 and Topix indices have surged to record highs, driven by optimism over Takaichi's pro-growth policies and corporate governance reforms. This rally attracts global capital seeking diversification from US and European markets, influencing international investment strategies and signaling renewed confidence in Japan's economic trajectory despite demographic challenges.

Advanced Risk Management in UK Businesses

UK firms lead globally in risk oversight, with high board involvement and dedicated risk departments. Emphasis on cyber security, economic slowdown, and emerging risks like AI and competition enhances corporate resilience. This proactive risk management supports business continuity and investor confidence amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

Strong GDP Growth and Economic Resilience

Vietnam's GDP growth exceeded 8% in Q3 2025, with forecasts raised to 7.5-7.9% for the year by HSBC and Standard Chartered. Growth is fueled by steady trade, robust FDI inflows, and recovering domestic demand. Despite global uncertainties and tariff pressures, Vietnam remains a key player in global value chains, benefiting from macroeconomic stability and improving industrial infrastructure.

Geopolitical Risks and Defense Spending

The new government coalition's alignment facilitates increased defense budgets, benefiting major contractors like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Heightened regional security concerns and US-Japan strategic cooperation underpin this shift. Elevated defense spending influences industrial output, investment priorities, and international trade in defense-related technologies, affecting global security and economic dynamics.

Financial Market Resilience and Equity Rally

South African financial markets show resilience amid global uncertainty, with equities experiencing their longest monthly rally since 2013. Optimism is driven by domestic economic prospects, expectations of global monetary easing, and improved investor sentiment following the greylist exit. Key sectors such as banking, technology, and telecommunications lead gains, signaling renewed appetite for emerging-market assets and potential for sustained capital inflows.

Economic Contraction and Growth Uncertainty

Mexico's economy contracted 0.3% in Q3 2025, the first decline since 2021, amid trade tensions and domestic challenges. This slowdown dampens investor confidence, complicates nearshoring prospects, and pressures employment and household incomes, posing risks to sustained foreign direct investment and economic recovery.

Supply Chain and Infrastructure Challenges

Canada faces structural challenges in supply chain reconfiguration and infrastructure development, with calls for improved port planning and expedited project approvals. Addressing these bottlenecks is essential to support trade diversification, reduce reliance on the U.S. market, and enhance competitiveness in global markets.

Global Monetary Policy Impact on Australian Dollar

Uncertainty around U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions creates volatility in Asian currencies, including the Australian Dollar (AUD). The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious stance amid persistent inflation and slowing growth supports AUD stability. Currency fluctuations affect trade competitiveness, import costs, and investment flows, making monetary policy coordination and market expectations critical for Australia’s economic resilience.

Political Instability and Market Volatility

The rejection of a case against opposition leader Özgür Özel provides temporary market relief but underscores ongoing political instability and authoritarian concerns. Judicial interference and political tensions continue to undermine investor confidence, leading to capital flight and currency depreciation, which complicates Turkey's investment climate and poses risks for foreign investors and market stability.

Political Instability and Government Fragility

France's political landscape is marked by fragmentation and instability, with a fragile minority government facing potential collapse over contentious issues like wealth tax and pension reforms. This uncertainty undermines policymaking, delays budget approvals, and raises the risk of new elections, which could disrupt economic reforms and investor confidence, impacting trade and investment strategies.

Intensified Western Sanctions on Energy Sector

The US, UK, and EU have escalated sanctions targeting Russia’s largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, including asset freezes and trade restrictions. These measures aim to cut off critical revenue streams funding Russia’s military operations. Secondary sanctions threaten foreign entities engaging with these firms, complicating global energy trade and increasing compliance risks for international businesses.

Construction Sector Contraction and Recovery

Mexico's construction industry is contracting in 2025 due to rising input costs, tariff impacts, and reduced remittances. However, government investments in energy and transport infrastructure, including major railway and highway projects, are expected to drive a recovery with a projected 2.6% annual growth rate from 2026 to 2029. This sector's performance is pivotal for economic stimulus and supply chain logistics.

National Champions and Infrastructure Risks

Vietnam's government promotes 'chip-to-ship' conglomerates like Vingroup to lead major infrastructure projects, including a $70 billion high-speed railway. While this boosts private sector involvement, concerns arise over financial risks, high leverage, state guarantees, and potential favoritism. Such concentration risks could impact banking stability and credit ratings, warranting cautious investor scrutiny.