Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 18, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The G20 summit in Brazil is overshadowed by two major wars and Donald Trump's recent election victory. Heightened global tensions and uncertainty about an incoming Trump administration have tempered any expectations for a strongly worded statement addressing the conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. Experts instead anticipate a final document focused on social issues like the eradication of hunger — one of Brazil's priorities — even if it aims to include at least a mention of the ongoing wars.

Typhoons in the Philippines have caused tidal surges and displaced massive numbers of people.

Geopolitical tensions simmer as Cop29 heads into its second week in Baku, Azerbaijan. Climate advocates are urging world leaders to commit to a strong finance deal.

Japan and Ukraine have signed a security info-sharing pact to boost cooperation.

Russia-Ukraine War

The Russia-Ukraine war has dragged past its thousandth day, with hundreds of missiles and drones streaking across Kyiv's skies, killing at least two people, leaving a dozen more injured, and damaging the country's already beleaguered energy grid. Russia's relentless aerial bombardment has destroyed half of Ukraine's energy production capacity, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

With the harsh Ukrainian winter fast approaching, the country is already suffering from major energy shortfalls, while its outmanned and outgunned forces have been steadily ceding ground to the Kremlin's troops for weeks. Kyiv has implored its Western allies for help to rebuild its energy grid — a hugely expensive undertaking — and to supply its outgunned forces with more aerial defence weapons.

Many in Ukraine fear that Western help will not be as freely given following the imminent return of Trump to the White House in January. The Republican president-elect has frequently questioned the United States' backing for Ukraine, and campaigned with the promise of cutting a quick deal to end the war.

Joe Biden has authorised Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike hundreds of miles inside Russia for the first time, according to reports. The decision marks a major policy shift and comes after Russia warned that Moscow would see the move to allow the use of US-made missiles as an “escalation.” With Biden leaving office in two months, president-elect Donald Trump has indicated he will limit American support for Ukraine and pledged to end the war quickly once he takes office in January.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has campaigned for months to allow Ukraine’s military to use US weapons to hit Russian military targets far from its border, and retains important allies in both parties in Congress. He said Sunday evening that the strikes, if carried out, would "speak for themselves." But he did not confirm the authorization directly.

The Kremlin has said that if the United States allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike far into Russia, it would lead to a rise in tension and deepen the involvement of the United States in the conflict.

North Korea's Involvement in the Russia-Ukraine War

North Korea may end up sending Putin 100,000 troops for his war, according to people familiar with assessments made by some Group of 20 nations. The analysis is one of several on the evolving partnership between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said the people, speaking on condition of anonymity to talk about private discussions. They stressed that such a move wasn’t imminent and that military support at that scale — if it occurred — would likely happen in batches with troops rotating over time rather than in a single deployment.

Ukraine’s ambassador to South Korea made a similar assessment earlier this month. Dmytro Ponomarenko said in an interview with VOA that Kyiv expected up to 15,000 North Korean troops deployed to fight in Russia’s Kursk region – and possibly in occupied areas of eastern Ukraine – to rotate every few months.

Kim’s decision to send North Korean troops to join Russia’s fight against Ukraine has alarmed Kyiv’s allies, who’ve warned that it risks exacerbating what is already Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. They believe the deepening cooperation between Putin and Kim could also impact the security balance in the Indo-Pacific region, where there’s mounting rivalry between China and the US.

The issue will be raised by several allies at the G-20 Summit in Brazil this week including by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz when he meets Chinese President Xi Jinping, Bloomberg previously reported. Scholz told Putin Friday in a rare phone call that the deployment of North Korean troops was a “grave escalation” of the war against Ukraine.

Scholz will press the Chinese leader at their meeting in Rio on Tuesday to use his influence over Russia and North Korea to avoid further escalation in the war, according to German officials.

The North Korean deployment shows the war is becoming globalized and Scholz and Xi will need to discuss this new dimension of the conflict, the officials said.

Worries were also raised by allies at the APEC gathering in Lima, Peru, this past week, another person said.

Xi has been the biggest benefactor to Putin and Kim in recent years, and sees both leaders as partners in pushing against the US-led world order. But his government has remained silent publicly on the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia — a sign the Chinese president may be unhappy with the arrangement.

The Kim-Putin partnership risks adding economic pressure on China, just as Xi is bracing for potential disruption from tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump when he returns to the White House. It also undermines Beijing’s argument that the US shouldn’t have military alliances in the Indo-Pacific region.

China doesn’t “allow conflict and turmoil to happen on the Korean Peninsula” and it won’t “sit idly by when its strategic security and core interests are under threat,” Xi told US President Joe Biden at talks Saturday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima.

North Korea has so far sent more than 10,000 troops to fight alongside Putin’s army in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces have occupied part of the border territory since a surprise incursion in August. In return, Russia is providing money and helping North Korea increase its capabilities.

South Korea has said there’s a “high chance” that North Korea will seek cutting-edge technology transfers from Russia — including technology related to tactical nuclear weapons, intercontinental ballistic missiles, reconnaissance satellites and ballistic missile submarines.

As well as manpower, North Korea has also sent millions of rounds of artillery ammunition and other weapons to Russia. The Financial Times reported this week, citing Ukrainian intelligence, that Pyongyang has supplied long-range rocket and artillery systems to Russia.

US-China Relations

China’s leader Xi Jinping met for the last time with President Biden on Saturday, but was already looking ahead to President-elect Donald Trump and his "America first" policies, saying Beijing "is ready to work with a new U.S. administration."

During their talks on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru, Xi cautioned that a stable China-U.S. relationship was critical not only to the two nations but to the "future and destiny of humanity."

Without mentioning Trump’s name, Xi appeared to signal his concern that the incoming president’s protectionist rhetoric on the campaign trail could send the U.S.-China relationship into another valley.

"China is ready to work with a new U.S. administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences so as to strive for a steady transition of the China-U.S. relationship for the benefit of the two peoples," Xi said through an interpreter.

Xi, who is firmly entrenched atop China’s political hierarchy, spoke forcefully in his brief remarks before reporters. Biden, who is winding down more than 50 years of public service, talked in broader brushstrokes about where the relationship between the two countries has gone.

He reflected not just on the past four years but on the decades the two have known each other.

"We haven’t always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank. We’ve never kidded one another," Biden said. "These conversations prevent miscalculations, and they ensure the competition between our two countries will not veer into conflict."

Biden urged Xi to dissuade North Korea from further deepening its support for Russia’s war on Ukraine. The leaders, with top aides surrounding them, gathered around a long rectangle of tables in an expansive conference room at a Lima hotel.

They had much to discuss, including China’s indirect support for Russia, human rights issues, technology and Taiwan, the self-ruled democracy that Beijing claims as its own. On artificial intelligence, the two agreed on the need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons and more broadly improve safety and international cooperation of the rapidly expanding technology.

There’s much uncertainty about what lies ahead in the U.S.-China relationship under Trump, who campaigned promising to levy 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.

Already, many American companies, including Nike and eyewear retailer Warby Parker, have been diversifying their sourcing away from China. Shoe brand Steve Madden says it plans to cut imports from China by as much as 45% next year.

In a congratulatory message to Trump after his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, Xi called for the U.S. and China to manage their differences and get along in a new era. In front of cameras Saturday, Xi spoke to Biden — but it was unmistakable that his message was directed at Trump.

"In a major flourishing sci-tech revolution, neither decoupling nor supply chain disruption is a solution," Xi said. "Only mutual, beneficial cooperation can lead to common development. ‘Small yard, high fence’ is not what a major country should pursue."

Biden administration officials have said they would advise the Trump team that managing the intense competition with Beijing will likely be the most significant foreign policy challenge they will face.

On Saturday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden had reinforced to Xi "that these next two months are a time of transition" and that the president would like to pass off the U.S.-China relationship "in stable terms" to the new administration.

Biden has viewed his relationship with Xi as among the most consequential on the international stage and put much effort into cultivating it.

Trump's "America First" Policy

Trump's "America First" policy could shift the Horn of Africa policy and shake up Mideast diplomacy on Iran.

Trump's recent election victory and the imminent return of an America First doctrine may also hamper the diplomatic spirit needed for broad agreement on divisive issues at the G20 summit in Brazil.<co: 11>G20 summit in Brazil.</

Themes around the World:

Sovereign Credit Downgrades

Major rating agencies have downgraded France's sovereign credit ratings and outlooks due to elevated public debt, fiscal deficits, and political fragmentation. These downgrades increase borrowing costs and signal heightened fiscal risks, impacting investor confidence and potentially raising the cost of capital for businesses operating in France.

Commodity Market Dynamics and Critical Minerals

Australia's role as a major supplier of rare earths and critical minerals is increasingly strategic amid global tech and defense competition. However, market volatility, geopolitical trade disputes, and challenges in processing capacity affect export stability and investment in this sector, impacting global supply chains and technological development.

Impact of US-China Diplomatic Summits

High-level US-China summits play a pivotal role in stabilizing global markets and reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Positive diplomatic engagement can ease trade tensions, foster cooperation in technology and security, and improve investor confidence across traditional and digital asset markets, highlighting the importance of sustained dialogue for global economic stability.

Investment and Job Market Contraction

Over one-third of German companies plan job cuts in 2026, particularly in industry, amid declining investment intentions. The prolonged investment slump and rising insolvencies signal deteriorating business confidence, threatening employment and economic recovery prospects.

US-China Trade Tensions Impact

Escalating US-China trade curbs and sanctions create significant uncertainty for global markets, supply chains, and investment flows. Restrictions on technology exports and investment screening disrupt global tech supply chains, forcing companies to diversify or relocate operations. These tensions elevate geopolitical risks, impacting business confidence and increasing volatility in traditional and digital asset markets.

Foreign Investment Surge and Digital Transformation

Germany has witnessed a dramatic increase in foreign-owned companies, rising over 600% from 2015 to 2025. This influx, led by Luxembourg, the UK, China, and the US, reflects a structural shift towards global integration and digital transformation. Foreign capital is driving growth in sectors like manufacturing, logistics, and cloud infrastructure, reshaping Germany’s economic landscape and investment patterns.

Stock Market Rally and Emerging Market Optimism

South African equities are experiencing their longest monthly rally since 2013, driven by domestic economic optimism, expectations of global monetary easing, and renewed interest in emerging markets. Key sectors like banking, technology, and telecommunications are leading gains, reflecting improved corporate earnings and investor confidence, which supports capital market development and economic diversification.

Western Sanctions and Energy Market Dynamics

Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, combined with Western sanctions, have disrupted Russian refined product exports by about 500,000 barrels per day. This has tightened global fuel supplies, benefiting Western oil majors through increased refining margins. The conflict thus reshapes global energy markets, influencing supply chains and pricing strategies internationally.

Long-Term Domestic Investment Challenges

Despite Korea's growing foreign financial assets exceeding 55% of GDP, domestic investment demand is weakening amid an aging population and capital outflows. This trend threatens long-term productivity and economic growth, highlighting the need for policies that stimulate domestic capital formation and improve corporate governance to attract local investment.

Supporting Industries Development

Vietnam's supporting industries, crucial for manufacturing self-reliance, are expanding with over 40,000 enterprises. Multinationals like Samsung and Intel drive quality upgrades, but many local firms remain small with limited technology and weak management. Government incentives and FTAs aim to boost competitiveness, yet gaps in innovation, R&D, and supplier integration persist, limiting local content in supply chains.

Brazil-U.S. Trade Negotiations

Bilateral tariff talks between Brazil and the U.S. aim to prevent tariff escalations on key Brazilian exports like beef and steel. Stability in trade relations is critical for businesses reliant on North American supply chains, impacting costs, market access, and operational planning for multinational companies and expats.

Labor Market and Talent Shortages

Thailand's labor market is robust with low unemployment, but faces a growing shortage of digital and technology professionals. Government initiatives aim to bridge this gap through cybersecurity training and skills development. Addressing talent shortages is critical for sustaining Thailand’s attractiveness as a high-tech investment destination and supporting digital transformation.

Political Instability Impacting Economy

France's ongoing political crisis is significantly undermining business confidence and manufacturing output. Persistent political turbulence fuels uncertainty, leading to contraction in manufacturing sectors and dampening both domestic and foreign demand. This instability risks deterring investment and complicates fiscal policy implementation, thereby affecting economic growth and international trade dynamics.

France-Africa Relations and Francafrique Legacy

France's historical and ongoing influence in Africa, encapsulated by the concept of Francafrique, continues to shape political, economic, and military ties. This legacy involves complex networks of cooperation and dependency, affecting France's geopolitical strategy, trade relations, and investment opportunities in the African continent, with implications for regional stability and economic integration.

Enhanced Financial Crime Enforcement Powers

Legislative moves to empower Turkey's Financial Crimes Investigation Board (MASAK) with instant bank account freezing capabilities aim to strengthen anti-money laundering and fraud controls. While enhancing financial transparency, these measures raise concerns about potential government overreach and selective enforcement, impacting corporate governance, investor confidence, and the broader business environment.

Foreign Ownership Surge in UK Companies

Foreign investors have dramatically increased ownership of UK companies, rising 177% over a decade, with US, Luxembourg, Germany, and France leading. This trend is driven by Sterling depreciation and Brexit-related trade opportunities, affecting control over key sectors like holding companies, business services, and property development, influencing strategic decisions and international investment flows.

Inflation and Fiscal Policy Pressures

Government proposals for cash handouts to low-income and elderly Danes to mitigate inflation effects risk exacerbating inflationary pressures. The central bank warns that without offsetting fiscal measures, such stimulus could intensify wage demands and price increases, complicating monetary policy and potentially impacting consumer purchasing power and economic growth.

Regulatory Evolution in Crypto Sector

South Korea is considering designating major crypto exchanges as financial conglomerates, signaling a shift towards stricter oversight and integration of digital assets into the mainstream financial system. This regulatory evolution aims to mitigate systemic risks while balancing innovation and investor protection, impacting the crypto market's future trajectory.

Robust Export Growth Amid Challenges

Vietnam's exports surged over 16% year-on-year to $368 billion by mid-October 2025, driven by electronics manufacturing and mining. Despite a recent slowdown due to US tariff hikes and global trade barriers, exports remain on track for double-digit growth. However, rising protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and sustainability requirements pose ongoing risks to trade dynamics and supply chains.

Impact of Western Sanctions on Energy Sector

US and EU sanctions targeting major Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil have sharply reduced Russia's oil and gas revenues by over 20% in 2025. Sanctions disrupt exports, forcing Russia to rely on shadow fleets and discounted sales, while key buyers like India and China reconsider purchases, threatening Moscow’s fiscal resources and global energy supply dynamics.

Geopolitical and Diplomatic Influence via FII

The FII has evolved into a geoeconomic and diplomatic platform where Saudi Arabia positions itself as a mediator in regional conflicts and a bridge between global capital and regional stability. High-level diplomatic engagements and coordination on issues like the two-state solution underscore Riyadh's growing geopolitical influence, impacting investor confidence and regional trade dynamics.

Financial Market and Investment Trends

Taiwan's stock market, buoyed by technology and AI sectors, is reaching historic highs with increased investor interest in high-dividend ETFs. Corporate earnings growth and capital expenditure in AI-related industries support positive market sentiment despite global uncertainties.

Rising Fiscal Pressures and Social Policy Changes

Facing a record budget deficit, the Kremlin plans tax hikes and social benefit cuts, shifting fiscal burdens onto citizens amid economic downturn. Increased VAT and potential scrapping of simplified tax regimes signal tightening domestic conditions. These measures may dampen consumer demand and exacerbate social tensions, affecting market stability and labor dynamics.

Economic Sovereignty and Knowledge Economy

Saudi Arabia is redefining wealth by shifting from oil rents to a knowledge-based economy emphasizing human capital, AI, digital technologies, and renewable energy. The Public Investment Fund plays a central role in this transition, fostering economic sovereignty through strategic investments and fiscal discipline, which underpin sustainable growth and reduce vulnerability to global market volatility.

Global Market Interconnections and Spillover Risks

The UK market remains sensitive to global financial shocks, including potential US stock market corrections and international trade tensions. Defensive sectors and currency depreciation may mitigate some risks, but interconnectedness demands vigilant portfolio diversification and risk management strategies.

Banking Sector External Debt and Stability

Turkish banks hold high short-term external debt, though refinancing risks are easing due to tight monetary policy and improved investor sentiment. Continued access to foreign markets and adequate capital buffers support financial stability, but sensitivity to policy shifts and domestic politics remains, influencing credit availability and foreign investment flows.

Rising Federal Debt Concerns

Canada's federal budget projects a $78.3 billion deficit, a $36 billion increase from prior estimates, raising alarm among investors about fiscal sustainability. The government's accounting methods understate gross debt by including pension assets not available for debt servicing. This distorted debt portrayal risks undermining investor confidence and could increase borrowing costs, impacting trade and investment.

Structural Reforms and Economic Growth

South Africa's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 1.2%, reflecting global and domestic challenges. However, the government is focusing on structural reforms in energy and logistics to boost growth to 1.8% by 2028. These reforms are critical for improving infrastructure, investor confidence, and long-term economic stability.

Impact of Russia Sanctions on French Economy

Sanctions on Russia have a relatively limited direct impact on the French economy, with exposure to Russian gas at about 20%. However, French companies face dilemmas regarding continued operations in Russia amid reputational risks and geopolitical pressures. The situation affects supply chains, corporate strategies, and compliance risks for international investors.

Impact of Consumer Confidence on Business Performance

Weakened consumer confidence, at its highest since 2022, significantly contributes to profit warnings, especially in retail and consumer-facing sectors. This dampens discretionary spending, disrupts demand forecasts, and pressures margins, necessitating adaptive strategies in marketing, supply chain management, and financial planning to mitigate revenue volatility.

Missile Stockpile Replenishment via Sanctions Loopholes

Iran is reportedly importing large quantities of sodium perchlorate from China, a precursor for solid missile propellant, exploiting legal gray areas in UN sanctions. These shipments suggest efforts to rebuild and expand missile capabilities despite international restrictions, raising geopolitical tensions and complicating diplomatic negotiations over Iran's military programs.

US Tariffs Impact on Exports

The imposition of punitive US tariffs, reaching up to 50%, on Indian exports—especially textiles, gems, and leather—poses a significant risk to India's export-oriented sectors. This trade friction disrupts supply chains, reduces competitiveness, and threatens employment in MSMEs, impacting India's trade relations and export revenues, while pharmaceuticals and electronics remain exempt due to strategic importance.

US-Taiwan Trade and Tariff Dynamics

Ongoing US tariffs on Taiwanese exports, excluding semiconductors, continue to impact traditional industries. Taiwan is actively negotiating tariff rollbacks and increasing US investments to mitigate these effects. The evolving US trade policy, including potential new measures, remains a significant factor influencing Taiwan's export performance and investment climate.

China Plus One Manufacturing Strategy

Thailand is a key beneficiary of the 'China plus one' strategy, attracting advanced manufacturing investments in EVs and electronics. Despite rising FDI, challenges such as an aging workforce and low-value assembly risk economic stagnation, highlighting the need for structural reforms to sustain productivity and wage growth for long-term competitiveness.

High-Tech Economy and Regional Role

Israel remains a regional high-tech powerhouse, with the sector contributing about 20% of GDP and over half of exports. Despite recent shocks, strong human capital, R&D intensity, and multinational presence underpin medium-term growth prospects. The tech sector's resilience is vital for Israel's economic diversification and global trade integration.

Economic Growth Amid Challenges

Despite political turmoil, France's economy showed 0.5% growth in Q3 2025, driven by export surges in aeronautics and corporate investment. However, consumer spending remains weak, and growth is fragile. This mixed economic performance suggests cautious optimism but underscores vulnerabilities that could affect supply chains and investment strategies.