Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 15, 2024
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The world is witnessing a series of geopolitical and economic events that could have significant implications for businesses and investors. Pakistan and Bangladesh are taking steps to improve their diplomatic relationship, which could open up new business opportunities in the region. Meanwhile, tensions between Israel and other countries are escalating, with airstrikes in Syria and violence at a football match in Amsterdam. In Sudan, the discovery of French weapons systems has raised concerns about a potential violation of a U.N. arms embargo. Additionally, China's hacking of America's telecommunication system and efforts to court G20 nations to circumvent Western sanctions in a potential Taiwan conflict are significant developments that could impact global supply chains and geopolitical alliances.
Pakistan-Bangladesh Relations
The arrival of a Pakistan cargo vessel in Bangladesh marks a historic moment in the diplomatic relationship between the two countries, which has been traditionally complex since the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War. The docking of the vessel in Bangladesh's Chittagong port is the first-ever direct maritime contact between the two countries and signals a warming of ties under the new interim government led by Mohammad Yunus. This shift in relations could have significant implications for businesses and investors, as it opens up new opportunities for bilateral trade and investment. The new route will streamline supply chains, reduce transit time, and create new business opportunities for both countries.
Israel-France Relations
France has stepped up security for the national football team's match against Israel on Thursday to avoid a repeat of the violence in Amsterdam, where five people were hospitalised during a trip to play Ajax. The match is considered high-risk due to the tense geopolitical context and the presence of prominent political figures. Only about 20,000 fans are expected in the 80,000-seat stadium after Israel urged its citizens to avoid attending sporting and cultural events abroad following the violence in Amsterdam. This escalation in tensions could have implications for businesses and investors with interests in the region, as it highlights the need for increased security measures and the potential for further disruptions to public order.
Sudan Civil War
Amnesty International has reported the presence of French weapons systems in Sudan, which likely constitutes a violation of a U.N. arms embargo. The civil war in Sudan has resulted in over 20,000 deaths and 11.6 million people being forcibly displaced. The discovery of French weapons systems raises concerns about the potential violation of international law and the role of foreign governments in the conflict. This development could impact businesses and investors with interests in the region, as it highlights the ongoing instability and the potential for further international involvement.
China-US Relations
China's hacking of America's telecommunication system and efforts to court G20 nations to circumvent Western sanctions in a potential Taiwan conflict are significant developments that could impact global supply chains and geopolitical alliances. The breaches enabled the theft of customer call records data and the compromise of private communications of a limited number of individuals in government or political activity. This cyber espionage campaign could have far-reaching consequences for businesses and investors, as it undermines trust in the security of telecommunications systems and raises concerns about the potential for further cyber attacks.
Conclusion
The global events highlighted in this report demonstrate the complex and interconnected nature of global politics and economics. Businesses and investors should remain vigilant and proactive in managing risks and capitalizing on opportunities in this ever-changing global landscape.
Further Reading:
Biden and Xi will meet in Peru as US-China relations tested again by Trump’s return - Toronto Star
China to court G20 nations amid US-led sanctions over Taiwan: report - South China Morning Post
Facing Trump’s return, South Korea tees up for alliance strains - VOA Asia
France steps up security for Israel match after Amsterdam violence - The Independent
NATO and the EU press China to help stop North Korea’s support for the war on Ukraine - Toronto Star
Türkiye halts trade in strong response to Israel’s attacks on Gaza | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah
Türkiye’s ‘diplomatic excellence’ could help Trump end wars: Economist | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah
Themes around the World:
Strategic Trade Pact Engagements Expand
South Korea is actively seeking entry into the CPTPP and deepening trade ties with Japan and other partners. These efforts aim to secure market access, strengthen supply chain cooperation, and offset risks from bilateral tensions with major economies.
Migration Surges and Border Dynamics
Political turmoil in Venezuela and regional instability are driving increased migration flows through Mexico. This strains border infrastructure, affects labor availability, and complicates regulatory compliance for businesses reliant on cross-border movement of goods and people.
Geopolitical Risk: U.S.-China Rivalry and Canadian Autonomy
Canada’s efforts to balance relations with both the U.S. and China expose businesses to geopolitical risks, including retaliatory tariffs, regulatory shifts, and political pressure. The evolving stance on ‘strategic autonomy’ will shape future trade, investment, and supply chain resilience.
Transport and Logistics Complexity Post-Brexit
UK–EU trade now depends on complex road freight and customs processes, with increased costs and delays. Businesses must invest in advanced logistics planning, compliance, and diversified routes to mitigate disruptions, making transport strategy central to maintaining international trade flows.
Tightening Export Controls and Tech Restrictions
Beijing is intensifying export controls on critical goods, including rare earths and dual-use technologies, to safeguard national security and leverage supply chain influence. These measures impact global technology access and increase compliance risks for international firms.
Stricter Environmental and Import Regulations
New regulations require burn-free certification for feed corn and wheat imports, aligning with global sustainability standards. These rules increase compliance costs for importers and may disrupt agricultural supply chains, especially for animal feed and food processing sectors.
US Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty
Despite 20% US tariffs on Vietnamese exports, trade volumes to the US have reached record highs. However, ongoing tariff threats and negotiations inject volatility into Vietnam’s export-led growth model, compelling businesses to diversify markets and adapt to shifting global trade policies.
Legal Uncertainty Deters Investment
Despite wartime resilience, investors cite unpredictable legal and regulatory frameworks as a greater deterrent than conflict itself. Prolonged legal proceedings and lack of transparency undermine trust, limiting foreign direct investment and complicating contract enforcement.
Geopolitical Tensions and Sanction Risks
US sanctions and new tariffs targeting countries trading with Iran, including Turkey, introduce significant uncertainty for regional trade. These measures could disrupt supply chains, increase compliance risks, and necessitate strategic adjustments for businesses engaged in cross-border operations.
Aggressive Land Reclamation and Regulatory Risk
The government’s plan to reclaim 4–5 million hectares from plantation and mining firms heightens regulatory and asset security risks. This campaign impacts palm oil, forestry, and mining, raising concerns about policy stability, compliance costs, and foreign investor confidence.
Geopolitical Tensions With China Escalate
Japan faces heightened diplomatic and economic tensions with China, including export controls on rare earths and dual-use items. These frictions, triggered by Japan’s pro-Taiwan stance, threaten supply chains for high-tech and automotive sectors, raising operational risks for international businesses.
US Retreats from Global Climate Leadership
The US withdrawal from the UNFCCC and 65 other international bodies marks a strategic shift away from multilateral climate action. This move risks isolating US firms, ceding clean energy leadership to China, and complicating compliance for multinationals operating across jurisdictions.
Inflation and Monetary Policy Uncertainty
US inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with annual CPI at 2.7%. Political interference and delayed data due to government shutdowns complicate monetary policy, increasing uncertainty for investment, borrowing costs, and currency stability.
Labour Market Tensions and Wage Pressures
Persistent high unemployment, wage negotiations, and potential for labour unrest present ongoing risks. While recent data shows slight improvements in employment, structural barriers and the threat of strikes in key sectors like mining and manufacturing remain a concern for supply chain continuity.
Resilient Power and Infrastructure Investment
India’s power sector is set for Rs 4.5 lakh crore ($54 billion) investment by 2032, focusing on grid upgrades, renewable integration, and energy storage. Infrastructure development supports long-term demand, supply-chain reliability, and the green transition.
Green Energy Transition and Overcapacity
China leads in renewable energy, installing over half the world’s new wind and solar capacity. Policy shifts, including cuts to export tax rebates for batteries and solar, aim to curb overcapacity and align with global climate goals, but also reshape trade dynamics and supply chains.
Shifting Geopolitical Alliances
Israel’s aggressive regional posture has led to increased isolation and shifting alliances, with Gulf states and Turkey recalibrating relations. This dynamic affects trade corridors, investment flows, and the predictability of Israel’s external business environment.
Strategic Expansion of Gas Infrastructure
Brazil is investing hundreds of millions of dollars in new pipelines, LNG terminals, and storage to secure domestic gas supply, reduce reliance on imports, and support industrial growth. Projects like TAG, SEAP, and GASOG are critical for energy security, especially amid declining Bolivian imports and rising pre-salt production.
Outbound Investment and Global Capital Flows
China’s record trade surplus is fueling outbound private investment, with over $1 trillion flowing into global markets. This trend increases China’s influence in international finance but raises risks of sudden capital reversals and global market volatility.
Regulatory Change and Investment Climate
Major reforms, such as the shift from non-dom to residence-based taxation, are reshaping the UK’s attractiveness for high-net-worth individuals and foreign investors. Policy uncertainty and ongoing reviews could influence capital flows, entrepreneurship, and business location decisions.
Strategic Reset With China
Canada and China have entered a new era of economic partnership, marked by reduced tariffs on electric vehicles and canola, and expanded cooperation in energy, finance, and agriculture. This recalibration aims to diversify Canada’s trade and investment flows, reducing overdependence on the US market.
Strategic US-Taiwan Technology Partnership
The agreement establishes a high-tech strategic partnership, with joint industrial parks and reciprocal investment in semiconductors, AI, defense, and biotech. This deepens bilateral ties and positions Taiwan as a critical partner in US-led technology and innovation ecosystems.
Sanctions, Export Controls, and Geopolitics
The US continues to deploy sanctions and export controls as tools of foreign policy, targeting countries like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. These measures disrupt global energy, technology, and financial flows, increasing compliance risks and operational challenges for international companies.
Nationwide Protests and Legitimacy Crisis
Iran faces its largest protests in decades, driven by economic collapse, inflation exceeding 40%, and a generational rejection of the ruling system. The unrest, spreading to all provinces, threatens regime stability and disrupts business operations.
US Trade Scrutiny and Visa Restrictions
The US has suspended immigrant visa processing for Thai nationals and imposed stricter origin verification on Thai exports. These measures heighten compliance risks, potentially disrupt trade flows, and complicate market access for Thai businesses in the US.
Record Foreign Direct Investment Inflows
Turkey attracted $12.4 billion in FDI in the first 11 months of 2025, a 28% year-on-year increase. The EU accounts for 75% of FDI, with key sectors including wholesale, retail, ICT, and food manufacturing, signaling robust investor confidence and sectoral opportunities.
Geopolitical Tensions and Maritime Risks
US-Russia standoffs over tanker seizures and sanctions enforcement are escalating geopolitical risks in key shipping lanes. Businesses face heightened exposure to asset seizures, legal disputes, and retaliatory measures, impacting global operations and insurance costs.
Persistent Energy and Power Constraints
South Africa continues to face chronic electricity shortages and grid instability, impacting industrial output and investor confidence. Despite some renewable energy progress, reliance on coal and delays in infrastructure upgrades create ongoing risks for manufacturing, mining, and supply chains.
Political Volatility: Snap Election Gamble
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s dissolution of parliament and snap election on February 8 introduces significant policy uncertainty. The outcome will shape Japan’s fiscal, trade, and security strategies, with potential shifts in economic stimulus, tax policy, and regional diplomacy.
Trade Policy Uncertainty and AGOA Extension
The renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) provides temporary relief, but ongoing US-South Africa trade tensions and annual eligibility reviews create uncertainty. Loss of preferential access could significantly impact exports, especially in manufacturing and agriculture, affecting jobs and investment.
Nuclear Energy Debate Reemerges
Calls for nuclear energy to complement renewables are intensifying, driven by concerns over long-term energy security, cost, and reliability. Policy shifts could reshape Australia’s energy mix, influencing investment strategies and industrial competitiveness beyond 2050.
Nile Water Crisis and GERD Dispute
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has intensified Egypt’s existential concerns over Nile water security. Ongoing disputes with Ethiopia threaten agricultural output, food prices, and political stability, while U.S. and Israeli mediation efforts aim to secure binding water-release guarantees critical for Egypt’s future.
Strained Canada–U.S. Trade Relations
Canada’s relationship with the U.S. is under pressure due to repeated U.S. tariff threats, especially in autos, steel, and aluminum. The new Canada–China deal risks U.S. retaliation, particularly as CUSMA renegotiations loom, raising uncertainty for cross-border supply chains and North American manufacturing integration.
Black Sea and Ukraine Security Engagement
Turkey’s leadership in Black Sea naval security and post-war Ukraine reconstruction positions it as a key regional player. This enhances opportunities in defense, infrastructure, and logistics, but also exposes businesses to geopolitical risk from renewed conflict or shifting alliances.
Labor Market Stagnation and Wage Pressure
US job growth slowed sharply in late 2025, with only 50,000 jobs added in December and unemployment at 4.4%. Hiring is concentrated in healthcare and leisure, while other sectors stagnate. Wage growth remains moderate at 3.8% annually, raising concerns about economic dynamism, consumer demand, and future cost structures.
Industrial Policy and Market Intervention
The US is intensifying industrial policy through subsidies and intervention, particularly in energy and manufacturing. While supporting domestic sectors, these measures increase market volatility and complicate international investment decisions.