Fiscal slippage and ratings risk

Rising oil prices and large new programs are pressuring Indonesia’s 3% of GDP deficit ceiling; worst-case scenarios cited up to ~4.06%. Talk of temporarily raising the cap has already prompted more cautious rating outlooks, affecting funding costs and sovereign-linked projects.

Steel sector trade distress

Mexico’s steel industry is under acute strain from U.S. tariffs and Asian overcapacity. Industry groups say exports to the U.S. fell 55% in the last semester, plants run at roughly 50–55% capacity, and Mexico has extended 10%–35% tariffs on 220 Asian steel products.

Tourism Weakness and Service Spillovers

Tourism remains a critical demand engine, yet Thailand could lose up to 3 million visitors and 150 billion baht if Middle East disruption persists. Softer arrivals, especially from Europe and China, are weighing on hotels, aviation, retail and regional service supply chains.

Import Volumes And Logistics Softness

Tariff uncertainty is already suppressing U.S. goods flows. January container imports were 2.08 million TEU, down 6.4% year-on-year, while first-half 2026 volumes are forecast at 12.21 million TEU, 2.5% below 2025, complicating inventory planning, shipping contracts, and port-dependent operations.

Power Rationing Operational Constraints

To manage fuel shortages and summer demand, Egypt is cutting business hours, dimming street lighting, and preparing wider electricity-saving measures. These steps reduce blackout risk but disrupt retail, hospitality, warehousing, and industrial schedules, increasing compliance burdens and complicating staffing, logistics, and service continuity.

Inflation And Tight Financing Conditions

High military spending, weaker revenues, and domestic borrowing are sustaining inflation and tight financial conditions. Elevated rates, a weakening consumer environment, and rising non-payments increase credit, demand, and working-capital risks for exporters, investors, and companies with Russian counterparties or subsidiaries.

Municipal water and service delivery risk

Urban water reliability is deteriorating, creating business-continuity risks. Johannesburg loses about 44% of water to leaks; some metros report non-revenue water up to 50–60%. Drought-stressed regions like Nelson Mandela Bay face outages, staffing gaps, and critical asset failures.

Non-Oil Export Growth Surge

January non-oil exports including re-exports rose 22.1% year on year to SR32.57 billion, led by machinery and electrical equipment. The growth supports diversification, but falling national non-oil exports excluding re-exports shows underlying industrial depth remains uneven for long-term trade planning.

Macro fragility: baht, rates, uneven growth

Bank of Thailand sees below-potential, uneven growth and cut rates to 1.0% amid competitiveness concerns and baht misalignment. War-driven energy inflation risks stagflation, currency volatility, and demand swings; multinationals should strengthen pricing, hedging, and working-capital buffers.

Energy shock and price volatility

Iran conflict disruption risks have lifted oil and gas prices, raising UK inflation outlook and business input costs. Ofgem cap could rise to about £1,801 from July (≈+£160). Low gas storage increases exposure, impacting manufacturing, logistics and consumer demand.

AI chip export controls volatility

Washington is drafting—and then pulling back—new global licensing rules for advanced AI chips, while aggressively enforcing existing controls after major diversion cases. Multinationals face uncertainty in approvals, re-export risk, compliance audits, and data-center procurement timelines.

Trade Diversification and Tariff Exposure

Thailand is accelerating FTAs with the EU, South Korea, Canada and Sri Lanka while preparing responses to US Section 301 scrutiny. February exports rose 9.9% year-on-year, but slower momentum, tariff risk and front-loading distortions complicate trade planning and market access.

Logistics Resilience Improves Selectively

Port and logistics performance shows selective strength, with the Port of London reporting its strongest trade volumes in more than 50 years. Infrastructure and river-transport upgrades support import-export resilience, but benefits remain uneven against broader supply-chain fragility and energy-driven disruption.

US-China Trade Probe Escalation

Beijing opened two six-month investigations into US trade barriers on March 27, targeting restrictions on Chinese goods, high-tech exports and green products. The move raises tariff, retaliation and compliance risks for exporters, manufacturers and investors exposed to US-China supply chains.

Steel protectionism and subsidies

New Steel Strategy targets raising domestic share from ~30% to up to 50%, backed by up to £2.5bn. Import quotas cut 60% and out‑of‑quota steel faces 50% tariffs from July, reshaping sourcing, project costs and localisation decisions.

China Soy Trade Frictions

Brazil is negotiating soybean inspection rules with China after phytosanitary complaints disrupted certifications and slowed shipments. March exports still hover near 16.3 million tons, but tighter inspections, vessel delays and added port costs expose agribusiness supply chains to regulatory friction.

Geopolitical shipping disruption and rerouting

Middle East conflict is suspending Persian Gulf transits, raising war-risk premiums 400–500% and adding US$2,000–4,000 per container; detours add 10–15 days. Thai exports to the region stall, container imbalances worsen, and supply-chain planning must adapt.

Energy Infrastructure Under Fire

Repeated Russian strikes on power, gas and oil facilities are forcing rolling blackouts and industrial power restrictions nationwide. Recent attacks hit multiple regions, while Naftogaz says its infrastructure has been attacked more than 30 times this year, raising operating, insurance and contingency costs.

AI Chip Investment Surge

Samsung plans record spending above 110 trillion won, or roughly $73 billion, to expand AI chip, HBM and foundry capacity. This strengthens Korea’s semiconductor ecosystem, but raises competitive intensity, supplier concentration, and execution risks across global electronics supply chains.

Climate and Food Supply Risks

Flood damage, agricultural volatility and rising food import dependence are increasing operational and inflation risks. Food imports reached $5.5 billion in 7MFY26, while climate-related crop shortfalls have already triggered emergency purchases, exposing agribusiness, consumer sectors and transport-intensive supply chains to instability.

Energy security amid Hormuz shocks

Middle East disruption has taken ~20% of global LNG offline; Japan relies on the region for ~11% of LNG and ~90–95% of crude. JERA seeks incremental LNG; Tokyo urges Australia to raise supply and considers joint U.S. crude stockpiles.

Localization requirements in strategic sectors

Across defense, energy, and large infrastructure, Saudi policy continues to favor local content, in‑kingdom value creation, and technology transfer as conditions for major awards. Multinationals often need joint ventures, local manufacturing or service footprints, and compliance systems to win contracts and sustain margins.

Digital Infrastructure Investment Surge

Thailand is attracting major data-centre and AI-related investment, including a potential $6 billion Bridge Data Centres loan. The sector could grow 27.7% annually through 2031, but tighter licensing, resource consumption concerns and zoning rules may raise compliance costs.

Asian refining and petrochemical shock

Hormuz disruption has cut Middle East crude and naphtha supplies, prompting refineries and steam crackers across Asia to reduce runs and declare force majeure. With over 60% of naphtha sourced from the Middle East, downstream shortages and price spikes can cascade into plastics, chemicals, and manufacturing supply chains.

Industrial policy and green trade instruments

Australia’s “Future Made in Australia” approach is tying capital support to domestic manufacturing, cleaner production, and potential carbon-pricing or border measures. Discussion around “green energy statecraft” and regional carbon border adjustments could change export competitiveness, supplier qualification, and project financing assumptions.

Oil Export Infrastructure Disruptions

Ukrainian strikes, pipeline damage, and tanker seizures have temporarily halted about 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity, roughly 2 million barrels per day. The outages at Primorsk, Ust-Luga, Novorossiysk, and Druzhba raise delivery, insurance, and price risks across energy-linked trade.

Energy revenue rebound amid crises

Geopolitical shocks (e.g., Hormuz disruption) can sharply lift crude prices, narrowing discounts and boosting Russia’s cashflow despite sanctions. Higher realized prices and volumes strengthen fiscal capacity and alter buyer leverage, while raising headline risk for refiners and traders sourcing Russian barrels.

Energy Import Vulnerability Repricing

Taiwan imports about 96% of its energy and remains exposed to maritime disruption and LNG price shocks. Although authorities say gas supply is secured through May, conflict-driven volatility is forcing companies to reassess power resilience, fuel sourcing and operating cost assumptions.

Negotiation Uncertainty And Market Access

Tehran’s hardline conditions on sanctions relief, shipping control and regional security underscore a highly unstable policy environment. For international firms, any ceasefire or diplomatic opening could rapidly alter market access, payment channels, licensing conditions and the near-term viability of commercial re-engagement.

U.S. Tariff Pressure Escalates

Approaching the July 1 CUSMA review, Canada faces continued U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber, plus new Section 301 probes. With 76% of Canadian goods exports historically going south, policy uncertainty is dampening investment, pricing and cross-border supply planning.

Energy Transition Investment Push

Officials say Turkey is accelerating domestic and renewable energy investment to reduce external dependence and improve competitiveness. Over time this may support industrial resilience and infrastructure opportunities, but near-term projects still require imported equipment, foreign currency financing, and regulatory execution discipline.

Enerji fiyatları, cari açık riski

Türkiye’nin enerji ithalat bağımlılığı, Brent’in ~96 $/varil seviyelerine çıkmasıyla maliyet ve enflasyon kanalı üzerinden büyümeyi baskılıyor. Sürmekte olan şokta akaryakıt vergi “kayar ölçek” mekanizması tampon sağlasa da uzun sürerse cari açık ve fiyatlama riski yükselir.

Oil Shock and Baht Volatility

Thailand’s import dependence leaves it highly exposed to the Middle East oil shock. The baht has fallen more than 5% this month, with volatility near 9%, raising import costs, weakening investor sentiment and increasing hedging, logistics and pricing risks for businesses.

Customs facilitation and ACI flexibility

Finance authorities granted exceptional transit‑shipment facilities, waiving Advance Cargo Information (ACI) preregistration for three months to clear stranded cargo and sustain EU–Gulf trade flows. Firms should anticipate temporary procedural variability, documentation changes and compliance risk during disruptions.

SCZone Manufacturing Expansion

The Suez Canal Economic Zone continues attracting large-scale industrial and logistics investment, with Ain Sokhna alone hosting 547 projects worth $33.06 billion. This strengthens Egypt’s role in nearshoring, export manufacturing and regional distribution, especially for textiles, chemicals and transport-linked industries.

Energy Import Exposure Shock

Turkey’s near-total dependence on imported oil and gas leaves trade and production costs highly exposed to Middle East disruption. Brent reportedly climbed from roughly $72 to $96-100 per barrel, worsening inflation, freight, utility, and current-account pressures across manufacturing and logistics.