Data privacy and surveillance constraints

Growing scrutiny of government and commercial data collection is increasing compliance and reputational risk, especially for data brokers, adtech, and cross-border data users. Senators allege ICE buys location and other sensitive data from brokers; efforts to revive the “Fourth Amendment Is Not for Sale Act” could tighten rules.

Manufacturing incentives and localization

India continues industrial policy via PLI-style incentives and strategic missions spanning electronics, textiles, chemicals, and MSMEs. International manufacturers should evaluate local value-add requirements, supplier development, and potential WTO challenges, especially in autos and clean tech.

Shadow-fleet oil trade disruption

Iran’s crude exports rely on a mature “dark fleet” using AIS spoofing, ship-to-ship transfers and transshipment hubs (notably Malaysia) to reach China at discounts. Expanded interdictions and tanker seizures increase freight, insurance, and contract-frustration risks for energy-linked supply chains.

Cross-border corridor and border security

Thailand and Myanmar are exploring a Tachilek–Mae Sai transit corridor to move Thai fruit to China via Myanmar and expand bilateral flows. However, periodic border tensions and security policies can disrupt checkpoints, insurance costs, and delivery reliability for border supply chains.

Nickel governance and reporting gaps

Regulators disclosed a major Chinese-linked nickel smelter failed to submit mandatory investment activity reports, weakening oversight of capital, production, taxes, and environmental compliance. This heightens governance and ESG due-diligence needs for counterparties in Indonesia’s nickel downstreaming ecosystem.

BOJ tightening, yen volatility

Markets now price BOJ hikes toward 1% by mid-2026, while officials signal readiness to curb disorderly FX moves near ¥160/$, raising hedging costs and earnings volatility for exporters, importers, and Japan-based treasury centers managing multi-currency supply chains.

Trade controls and dual-use scrutiny

EU anti-circumvention measures increasingly target third-country re-export routes (e.g., machinery, communications equipment) and add more Russian banks and entities. Firms exporting industrial equipment, electronics, or software face stricter end‑use checks, documentation burdens, and elevated penalties for diversion.

Critical minerals export leverage

China’s export controls and temporary suspensions on metals such as gallium, germanium and antimony highlight near‑monopoly positions (around 99% of primary gallium). Multinationals face procurement shocks, price spikes, and stronger incentives to dual‑source, redesign products, and localize processing.

Business investment drag and policy uncertainty

UK GDP growth was only 0.1% in Q4 2025 and business investment fell nearly 3%, the biggest drop since early 2021, amid budget uncertainty. Multinationals should expect cautious capex, softer demand, and heightened sensitivity to regulatory or political shocks.

US tariffs hit German exports

New US tariff measures are reducing German competitiveness: exports to the US fell 9.3% in 2025 to ~€147bn and the bilateral surplus narrowed to €52.2bn. Firms should reassess pricing, localization and route-to-market for North America.

Government funding shutdown risk

Recurring shutdown episodes and looming DHS funding cliffs inject operational risk into travel, logistics, and federal service delivery. TSA staffing and Coast Guard/FEMA readiness can degrade during lapses, affecting airport throughput, cargo screening, disaster response, and contractor cashflows.

Agua y clima: riesgo transfronterizo

México se comprometió a entregar al menos 350,000 acre‑pies anuales a EE. UU. bajo el Tratado de 1944 y a pagar adeudos previos, tras amenazas arancelarias. Sequías y asignaciones industriales pueden generar paros, conflictos sociales y exposición comercial en agroindustria.

Border infrastructure leverage risk

U.S. threats to restrict the Canada-funded Gordie Howe Detroit–Windsor bridge highlight how critical crossings can become bargaining chips. With Detroit handling about US$126B in truck trade value, any disruption could delay just-in-time supply chains and raise logistics costs.

Governance and anti-corruption tightening

Ahead of IMF review, Pakistan’s governance plan targets high-risk agencies and strengthens AML/CFT, procurement rules and asset-declaration transparency. For multinationals this can improve fair competition over time, but near-term brings more scrutiny on payments, beneficial ownership, and higher documentation burdens in tenders.

Black Sea corridor security costs

Ukraine’s Odesa-area maritime corridor remains open but under intensified port and vessel attacks, mines, and GNSS spoofing. Volumes are volatile (corridor exports reportedly fell ~45% YoY in April 2025), while war-risk insurance and contractual disruption risk shape freight pricing and trade reliability.

Regulatory uncertainty, policy credibility

Even with improving macro indicators (primary surplus ~1.3% of GDP; current-account surplus), business planning is constrained by frequent policy adjustments tied to IMF benchmarks and coalition politics. Expect shifting tax measures, price controls and sectoral directives; robust scenario planning and stabilization clauses are critical.

USMCA review and North America risk

A July 1 USMCA mandatory review, White House criticism of “flaws,” and periodic Canada/Mexico tariff threats elevate uncertainty for deeply integrated auto, agri-food, and industrial supply chains. Companies should stress-test rules-of-origin compliance, nearshoring plans, and contingency sourcing.

Sanctions and “blood oil” compliance

Scrutiny is rising over refined fuel derived from spliced Russian crude, with claims Australia was the largest buyer among sanctioning nations in 2025. Potential rule changes could require origin due diligence and contract flexibility, raising procurement costs and enforcement risk across energy inputs.

Energy Import Dependence and Transition

Energy prices remain a key macro risk; IMF flags shocks like higher energy costs as inflation-extending. At the same time, expanding renewables and nuclear projects reshape industrial power pricing and grid investment. Energy-intensive manufacturers should plan for tariff volatility and decarbonization requirements.

Immigration tightening and talent constraints

Stricter U.S. visa policies are disrupting global talent mobility. H‑1B stamping backlogs in India reportedly extend to 2027, alongside enhanced vetting and a wage-weighted selection rule effective Feb 27, 2026, raising staffing risk for tech, healthcare, and R&D operations.

Foreign-backed infrastructure dealmaking

Mota-Engil is in advanced talks to assume Bahia’s Fiol rail, Porto Sul port, and Caetité mine in a ~R$15bn package, reportedly financed via China-linked capital. This signals renewed concession momentum, but adds geopolitically sensitive financing, governance, and execution considerations.

Logistics upgrades and multimodal corridors

Dedicated Freight Corridors, Gati Shakti cargo terminals, port connectivity and new national waterways aim to reduce transit times and logistics costs. Firms can redesign distribution networks, but should factor land acquisition delays, last-mile bottlenecks, and regulatory fragmentation.

Balochistan security threatens projects

Militant violence in Balochistan is disrupting logistics and deterring FDI, including audits and security redesigns around the $7bn Reko Diq project. Attacks on rail and highways raise insurance, security and schedule costs for mining, energy, and corridor-linked supply chains.

Stricter competition and digital rules

The CMA’s assertive posture and the UK’s digital competition regime increase scrutiny of mergers, platform conduct and data-driven markets. International acquirers should expect longer timelines, expanded remedies, and higher litigation risk, particularly in tech, media, and consumer sectors.

Supply chain realignment and friend-shoring

U.S. economic security doctrine is reinforcing regionalization and ‘friend-shoring,’ influencing sourcing, logistics hubs, and capital flows toward allied jurisdictions. Companies are adopting dual supply chains, higher inventory buffers, and geopolitical risk premiums, raising costs but improving resilience.

Municipal heat-planning deadlines

The rollout of kommunale Wärmeplanung creates a municipality-by-municipality timeline that gates when stricter heating requirements bite. Uneven local plans reshape market access for district heating, heat pumps, and hybrids, complicating nationwide go‑to‑market strategies and project financing.

Tight fiscal headroom and tax risk

Economists warn the Chancellor’s budget headroom has already eroded despite about £26bn in tax rises, raising odds of further revenue measures. Corporate planning must factor potential changes to NI, allowances, subsidies, and public procurement priorities.

Payment constraints and crypto workarounds

With banking restrictions persistent, Iran increasingly relies on alternative settlement channels including stablecoins and local exchanges, complicating compliance and AML controls. Firms face elevated fraud, convertibility, and repatriation risk, plus higher transaction costs and delayed settlement timelines.

Semiconductor-led growth and policy concentration

Exports remain chip-driven, deepening a “K-shaped” economy where semiconductors outperform domestic-demand sectors. For investors and suppliers, this concentrates opportunity and risk in advanced-node ecosystems, while prompting closer alignment with allied export-control and supply-chain security priorities.

Climate and cotton supply vulnerability

Cotton output recovery to about 5m bales still leaves Pakistan importing $2–3bn annually, pressuring FX and textile margins. Heat, erratic rainfall and pests threaten yields. Apparel supply chains face higher input volatility and potential delivery risks in peak seasons.

China tech export-control tightening

Export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI are tightening, raising compliance risk and limiting China revenue. Nvidia’s H200 China sales face strict, non‑negotiable license terms and end‑use monitoring; Applied Materials agreed to a $252M penalty over alleged SMIC-linked exports, signaling tougher BIS enforcement.

Tariff regime and legal uncertainty

Trump-era broad tariffs face Supreme Court and congressional challenges, creating volatile landed costs and contract risk. Average tariffs rose from 2.6% to 13% in 2025; potential refunds could exceed $130B, complicating pricing, sourcing, and inventory strategies.

Labor regulation and strike liability

The “Yellow Envelope” law taking effect March 10 broadens “employer” to include subcontractors and limits damages claims against strikers. Foreign chambers warn reduced predictability and higher labor-dispute exposure, especially for manufacturers and logistics operators using layered contracting models.

Ужесточение контроля судоходства

Запад переходит к физическому пресечению обхода: перехваты и досмотры танкеров, обсуждения ареста судов, давление на «безфлаговые» и переоформление танкеров под российский флаг. Фрахт, страхование и портовые сервисы дорожают, повышая сбои отгрузок.

E-commerce law and platform regulation

Vietnam’s Electronic Commerce Law effective July 2026 will require foreign platforms to establish legal presence, strengthen livestream and affiliate oversight, and mandate at least three years of transaction data retention. Cross-border sellers face higher compliance, tax, and takedown risks.

Secondary sanctions via tariffs

New executive authority threatens ~25% additional tariffs on imports from countries trading with Iran, alongside expanded “shadow fleet” designations. This blurs sanctions and trade policy, raising counterparty screening demands, shipping/insurance costs, and retaliation risk for firms operating across US-linked markets.