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Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 13, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The global situation is currently dominated by Donald Trump's return to the White House, which has significant implications for global trade and supply chains. Taiwan's tech industry is moving to fortify its supply chain strategy in anticipation of new global tariffs, while Chinese firms are showing increased interest in relocating to Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries to avoid the impact of potential tariffs. Meanwhile, China's leader Xi Jinping is heading to South America for a meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders, overshadowed by fears of renewed global trade tensions. In other news, the US has struck Iranian-backed targets in Syria, and thousands in Serbia are demanding the PM's resignation after a deadly roof collapse.

Trump's Return and Global Trade Tensions

The imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House has prompted Taiwan's tech industry to fortify its supply chain strategy in anticipation of new global tariffs. At a November 12 industry forum, experts outlined a new "two enhancements, two reductions" doctrine to navigate the approaching trade turbulence that could impact manufacturing bases from Mexico to Vietnam. This doctrine involves enhancing integration and control while reducing centralization and dependency.

Sharon Wu, division head at the Industry, Science, and Technology International Strategy Center under the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), warned that Trump's return signals just one aspect of evolving global dynamics. She emphasized that supply chains must become more flexible and resilient to shield against multiple threats, including supply chain disruption risks and the erosion of low-cost manufacturing advantages.

Chinese Firms Relocating to Southeast Asia

Chinese firms are showing increased interest in relocating to Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Vietnam to avoid the impact of potential tariffs. This is driven by Trump's campaign pledge to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods. During his first term, Trump's "America First" policy sparked a trade conflict with China, with tariffs imposed on US$550 billion of Chinese products.

Southeast Asian nations are preparing for more turbulence after Trump announced a blanket tariff regime of 10% on all imports. In Thailand, the WHA Group CEO Jareeporn Jarukornsakul has reported a surge in inquiries from Chinese customers, prompting the company to expand its Chinese-speaking sales force. Similarly, Malaysian real estate sellers are experiencing an uptick in interest in business relocation as Trump's return may bring a surge in Chinese companies looking to move supply chains to Southeast Asia.

US Strikes Iranian-Backed Targets in Syria

The US has struck Iranian-backed targets in Syria, including an Iran-backed military facility and militia targets. This comes amid ongoing tensions between Ukraine and Russia, with explosions in Kyiv as Putin's forces launch a missile attack. The US has also accused Hamas of complicity in Gaza 'genocide', while a UN official has stated that Gaza conditions are unfit for human survival.

Serbia's Deadly Roof Collapse and Political Fallout

Thousands in Serbia are demanding the PM's resignation after a deadly roof collapse at a shopping centre in the city of Kragujevac. The roof collapse killed at least 14 people and injured dozens more. The PM has been accused of negligence and corruption, with protesters calling for his resignation and an end to corruption. The PM has denied any wrongdoing and has vowed to continue his work.

This political turmoil in Serbia could have implications for businesses and investors, particularly those with operations or interests in the country. It is essential to monitor the situation closely and assess any potential risks or opportunities that may arise.


Further Reading:

Amid unease over Trump 2.0, Xi Jinping heads to South America; Peru first stop - Firstpost

Explosions in Kyiv after missile attack – Ukraine war latest - The Independent

Live: US strikes Iran-backed military facility in Syria - The National

Taiwan supply chains brace for Trump's upcoming wave of global tariff - DIGITIMES

Thousands in Serbia demand PM's resignation after deadly roof collapse - Lufkin Daily News

US military strikes Iranian-backed militia targets in Syria - Toronto Star

Ukraine-Russia war latest: 50,000 of Putin’s forces in Kursk, Kyiv says - The Independent

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Explosions in Kyiv as Putin’s forces launch missile attack - The Independent

With Trump’s victory, Malaysia sees more interest from Chinese firms to relocate - This Week In Asia

Themes around the World:

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Sustainability and Regulatory Challenges

The EU-Mercosur deal and global buyers increasingly require traceability and environmental compliance. Brazil’s exporters must adapt to stricter anti-deforestation laws and sustainability standards, which may limit access for non-compliant producers and increase operational costs.

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National Security Strategy and Economic Unilateralism

The 2025 US National Security Strategy prioritizes reindustrialization, energy independence, and technological supremacy. Its mercantilist, interventionist stance increases regulatory barriers, marginalizes allies, and risks global market fragmentation, directly affecting international trade and investment planning.

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Environmental Regulations

Stricter environmental policies impact manufacturing and resource extraction sectors. Compliance costs and sustainability requirements are increasingly important for multinational companies aligning with global ESG standards.

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Record Mexico-US Trade Surplus

Mexico’s exports to the US reached a record $48.5 billion in October 2025, with a 6.7% annual increase and a trade surplus of $18.9 billion. This underscores Mexico’s strategic role in US supply chains, but exposes it to US tariff and regulatory risks amid tense bilateral relations.

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Energy Crisis And Industrial Distress

Chronic electricity shortages and soaring power costs have led to eased antitrust rules, allowing distressed industries to jointly negotiate for cheaper energy. Persistent supply disruptions and Eskom’s R105 billion municipal debt threaten manufacturing viability and investor sentiment.

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Technological Innovation and Digitalization

Japan is advancing in digital transformation and innovation, particularly in AI, robotics, and 5G technologies. These developments enhance competitiveness but require substantial capital investment and adaptation by businesses, influencing international partnerships and technology transfer agreements.

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Canada’s Energy Market Diversification

Canada is accelerating efforts to expand oil and LNG exports to Asia, aiming to reduce dependence on the US. Major pipeline and LNG projects face regulatory, Indigenous, and environmental hurdles, but are critical for future trade resilience and investment strategies.

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Regulatory And Tax Policy Volatility

The government has proposed sharp tax hikes and subsidy reforms to address budget shortfalls. Frequent regulatory changes, opaque enforcement, and unpredictable fiscal policy increase compliance costs and risk for international companies and investors.

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Geopolitical Tensions and Security Risks

Israel's ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly with neighboring countries and non-state actors, pose significant risks to international trade and investment. Heightened security concerns can disrupt supply chains, increase operational costs, and deter foreign direct investment, necessitating robust risk mitigation strategies for businesses operating in or with Israel.

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Multinational Security Guarantees Framework

Ukraine and over 30 allied countries are finalizing robust, legally binding security guarantees, including multinational force deployment and US-led ceasefire monitoring. This framework aims to deter future Russian aggression, stabilize Ukraine, and reassure investors.

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USMCA Trade Dynamics

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) continues to define North American trade relations. Compliance requirements and tariff adjustments affect cross-border supply chains and investment decisions. Companies must adapt to evolving rules of origin and labor standards to optimize operations within the bloc.

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Regulatory Reforms and Ease of Doing Business

Recent regulatory reforms, including simplification of tax codes and labor laws, have improved India's ease of doing business ranking. These changes reduce operational risks and enhance the investment climate, encouraging multinational corporations to establish or expand operations in India.

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Accelerating Food Self-Sufficiency Policies

Indonesia has achieved rice self-sufficiency and halted rice and sugar imports for 2026, with surplus production and plans to export. This shift strengthens food security, impacts global commodity prices, and signals major changes for agribusiness supply chains.

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US-China Tech Rivalry Impact

South Korea faces strategic challenges amid escalating US-China tensions, particularly in semiconductor and technology sectors. This rivalry influences South Korea's export policies, supply chain alignments, and foreign investment flows, compelling firms to navigate complex geopolitical risks and diversify markets to mitigate dependency on either superpower.

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US-China Tech Decoupling

Ongoing US-China tensions have accelerated technology decoupling, with restrictions on semiconductor exports and Chinese access to advanced chips. This disrupts global supply chains, forcing companies to diversify manufacturing and R&D away from China, increasing costs and operational complexity for multinational firms reliant on Chinese tech ecosystems.

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Labor Cost Pressures in Urban Centers

Jakarta faces rising labor unrest over minimum wage levels, with demands to match the high cost of living. Wage disputes and protests may impact business operations, especially in technology, services, and international trade sectors concentrated in the capital.

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Trade Relations and Tariff Policies

South Africa's trade policies and its role in regional trade agreements affect market access. Changes in tariffs or trade barriers influence supply chain strategies and investment flows, especially in manufacturing and agriculture sectors.

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China-Iran Trade And Supply Chain Adaptation

Despite sanctions, Iran sustains trade with China by rerouting oil and goods through third countries. This circumvention supports Iran’s export revenues but exposes supply chains to regulatory, reputational, and compliance risks for global companies operating in or with China.

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Foreign Investment Climate Deteriorates

Sanctions, currency instability, and political unrest have sharply reduced foreign direct investment. The environment is marked by opaque regulations, high corruption, and unpredictable policy shifts, deterring new entrants and expansion.

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Economic Recovery and Growth Prospects

Brazil's economic recovery post-pandemic is marked by moderate GDP growth and inflation control efforts. Economic indicators suggest cautious optimism, affecting investment strategies and market entry decisions. Growth prospects in key sectors like agriculture and manufacturing are pivotal for supply chain planning and trade expansion.

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Technology Sector Expansion And Regulation

Australia’s technology industry is growing rapidly, attracting global investment. However, new regulations on data privacy, cybersecurity, and foreign ownership are emerging, impacting market entry, compliance costs, and strategic partnerships for international businesses.

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Environmental and Sustainability Policies

Saudi Arabia's commitment to sustainability, including renewable energy projects and carbon reduction targets, affects energy sourcing and corporate social responsibility strategies. Businesses must align with these policies to ensure compliance and market acceptance.

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Regulatory Reforms and Investment Climate

The government is pursuing regulatory reforms to attract foreign and domestic investment, including tax incentives and streamlined credit for SMEs. However, inconsistent policies, high production costs, and compliance challenges remain barriers to sustained investment and supply chain integration.

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Supply Chain Resilience Amid Global Disruptions

Ongoing global supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and the COVID-19 aftermath, compel German businesses to diversify suppliers and localize production. This strategic shift aims to reduce dependency on single sources, enhancing resilience but potentially increasing operational costs and affecting international trade dynamics.

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Nuclear Program Escalation And Regional Threats

Iran is recalibrating its nuclear strategy, seeking missile-capable warheads and reportedly developing chemical and biological payloads. These actions heighten regional security risks, provoke international responses, and increase uncertainty for businesses dependent on Middle Eastern stability.

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Energy Sector Expansion and Diversification

Egypt's investments in renewable energy and natural gas production enhance energy security and export potential. The development of the East Mediterranean gas fields positions Egypt as a regional energy hub, impacting global energy markets and attracting energy sector investments.

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Infrastructure Development and Connectivity

Turkey's ongoing investments in infrastructure, including ports, logistics hubs, and transportation networks, enhance its role as a trade corridor. Improved connectivity facilitates supply chain efficiency but requires businesses to monitor project timelines and political support to leverage these advantages fully.

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Japan’s Strategic Response Options

Japan may counter China’s measures by leveraging its dominance in advanced semiconductor materials and equipment. Potential export controls on photoresists could impact China’s chip ambitions, affecting global tech supply chains and investment decisions.

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Regional Trade Shifts And Diversification

Iran is expanding technical, engineering, and preferential trade agreements with countries like Turkey and Indonesia. These efforts aim to offset Western isolation, but supply chain and payment risks persist, requiring careful partner selection and risk management for international firms.

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Regulatory and Governance Reforms

Ongoing reforms aimed at improving transparency and business climate are critical for attracting investment. However, implementation challenges and corruption concerns remain, affecting investor confidence and business operations.

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Rare Earth Export Controls Threaten Industry

Japan’s near-total reliance on Chinese heavy rare earths for EVs and electronics faces disruption, with potential GDP losses up to 0.43% if restrictions persist. This jeopardizes automotive, electronics, and defense sectors, forcing global firms to seek alternative suppliers.

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Energy Export Dependencies

Russia's role as a major energy supplier, particularly natural gas and oil to Europe and Asia, remains critical. Fluctuations in energy exports due to geopolitical tensions or infrastructure constraints directly affect global energy prices and investment flows in energy-dependent industries.

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Infrastructure Development

Ongoing infrastructure projects in Taiwan, including transportation and digital infrastructure, enhance logistics efficiency and connectivity. Improved infrastructure supports supply chain resilience and attracts investment, bolstering Taiwan's role in global trade networks.

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Regulatory Reforms and Business Environment

Recent reforms aimed at improving the ease of doing business, including streamlined licensing and foreign ownership rules, enhance Saudi Arabia's attractiveness for international investors and multinational corporations.

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Security Concerns and Regional Conflicts

Persistent security challenges, including terrorism and border tensions with neighboring countries, elevate operational risks. These factors disrupt supply chains, increase insurance and security costs, and deter foreign direct investment, impacting Pakistan's attractiveness as a trade and manufacturing hub.

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Public Investment Fund Global Expansion

The Public Investment Fund (PIF) led global sovereign wealth fund activity in 2025, investing $36.2 billion, mainly in digital and tech sectors. PIF’s assets now exceed $1.15 trillion, with a strategic pivot toward global investments supporting Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation.