Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 12, 2024
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The global order is shifting as Donald Trump wins a landslide victory in the US and Germany's coalition government collapses. This marks a shift from neoliberalism to economic realism, with national security considerations taking precedence over market interests. Trump's protectionist policies and China's state-directed capitalism are intensifying geopolitical competition, pressuring businesses to make investment decisions through a geopolitical lens. The era of peak globalisation is behind us, and companies face a choice between rival IT infrastructures, markets, and currency systems. Trump's proposed tariffs and trade war threats are causing concern and uncertainty for many countries, especially those with close trade ties to the US and China.
Trump's Return to the White House and the End of the Neoliberal Era
Donald Trump's return to the White House coincides with the collapse of Germany's coalition government, signalling a shift in the global order. The German government coalition fell apart over disagreements regarding the debt brake, with former Finance Minister Christian Lindner advocating for neoliberal staples such as tax relief, deregulation, and fiscal discipline, while Chancellor Scholz pursues "economic realism", acknowledging that market-driven solutions may no longer work in a world disrupted by geo-economic competition.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Europe and Russia have economically decoupled, and while a complete decoupling of Western economies from China remains impossible due to extensive interdependence, the Biden administration has turned to export controls, investment restrictions, and a subsidy-driven industrial policy. China's state-directed capitalism is surging to the technological frontier through heavily subsidised industrial policies, threatening industries worldwide.
Trump's protectionist policies and China's state-directed capitalism are intensifying geopolitical competition, pressuring businesses to make investment decisions through a geopolitical lens. The era of peak globalisation is behind us, and companies face a choice between rival IT infrastructures, markets, and currency systems. Diversification, especially in high-tech sectors, is accelerating, potentially leading to competing economic blocs.
Trump's Tariff Plans and the Potential Impact on Global Trade
Trump's proposed tariffs and trade war threats are causing concern and uncertainty for many countries, especially those with close trade ties to the US and China. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of between 10-20 per cent on all goods coming into the US, and up to 60 per cent on those coming from China, which could trigger global trade wars on a scale we've never seen before.
Indonesia's businesses are concerned that restrictive trade policies from the US will incentivize Chinese producers to divert large quantities of goods to Southeast Asian markets and create barriers for Indonesian exports to the US. Indonesia is China's largest trading partner and the US is the second-largest export market for Indonesian goods, so these policies could significantly impact Indonesia's economy.
Indonesia's government is taking steps to minimize the negative impact of the change of US administration, including pushing for trade deals, diversifying export markets, and improving competitiveness. More regional trade agreements are necessary to navigate the expected wave of protectionism, as such deals would cement a strong foundation for Indonesian businesses to brace for the shift of US policies.
Taiwan's Position in the US-China Trade War
Taiwanese companies with bases in mainland China are in a hurry to relocate back to Taiwan or elsewhere if Donald Trump imposes high tariffs on China. This highlights the delicate position Taiwan finds itself in as it navigates the US-China trade war.
Mexico's Response to Trump's Threats
Mexico is bracing for the challenges ahead as Donald Trump eyes a return to office, with Trump's constant threats on tariffs, massive deportations, and cross-border trade putting the country in a difficult position. Mexico has a new leader, Claudia Sheinbaum, who is more ideological and less pragmatic than the former Mexican president, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador.
Sheinbaum's administration could face particular pressure to address US concerns regarding immigration and drug trafficking, and her recent moves to centralize government power by diminishing independent regulatory bodies could violate US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) terms, giving Trump grounds to push for trade renegotiations, especially regarding the auto industry and supply chain regulations.
Mexico hopes for peaceful trade dynamics, but experts argue that optimism should be tempered by a realistic understanding of Trump's national security-focused policies, which often prioritize economic protectionism.
Further Reading:
Eoin Burke-Kennedy: Ireland’s €54bn exposure to Trump’s tariff plan - The Irish Times
How A Second Trump Term Could Strain U.S.-Mexico Relations To The Breaking Point - Reform Austin
Indonesia’s businesses fear deluge of Chinese goods after Trump takes office - asianews.network
Trump Wins Big, Germany’s Coalition Falls—A New Global Order? - Social Europe
Themes around the World:
Regulatory Environment and Compliance
Evolving regulations on corporate governance, environmental standards, and trade compliance increase operational complexity. Businesses must adapt to maintain market access and avoid penalties, impacting strategic planning.
Infrastructure Investment and Development
Significant government initiatives focus on upgrading transport, digital, and energy infrastructure to boost economic resilience. These investments aim to enhance supply chain connectivity and attract foreign direct investment, though project delays and funding uncertainties pose risks.
Labor Market Constraints and Immigration Policies
Labor shortages in key sectors and evolving immigration policies impact workforce availability and operational scalability. Businesses must adapt recruitment and retention strategies to maintain productivity and support growth.
Foreign Investment and Regulatory Reform
Thailand aims to attract high-quality FDI by streamlining investment approvals and reforming capital market regulations. Structural reforms, especially in digital assets and advanced manufacturing, are crucial to restoring competitiveness and investor confidence amid regional competition.
Digital Transformation and E-commerce Growth
Rapid digital adoption and e-commerce expansion are reshaping Egypt's business landscape. Investments in ICT infrastructure and regulatory reforms promote innovation and new market channels, offering growth prospects for technology-driven enterprises and altering traditional supply chain models.
Supply Chain Diversification Efforts
Global companies are diversifying supply chains to reduce dependence on Taiwan due to geopolitical risks. While Taiwan remains vital, firms are exploring alternative manufacturing hubs, impacting investment patterns and trade volumes related to Taiwan's export sectors.
US-China Trade Tensions
Ongoing trade disputes between the US and China continue to disrupt global supply chains and increase tariffs, impacting multinational companies' cost structures and market access. Businesses face uncertainty in investment planning due to fluctuating trade policies and potential sanctions, necessitating strategic diversification and risk mitigation.
Energy Sector Volatility
Russia's pivotal role as a major energy exporter faces challenges from fluctuating global demand, sanctions targeting oil and gas exports, and shifts towards renewable energy. This volatility affects global energy prices, supply security, and investment flows, influencing multinational energy companies and dependent economies.
Geopolitical Tensions and Security Risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions with neighboring countries, particularly China and Pakistan, pose risks to cross-border trade and investment. These tensions may lead to supply chain disruptions, increased security costs, and cautious investor sentiment, impacting business operations in sensitive regions.
Labor Market and Migration Trends
Labor market dynamics, influenced by migration patterns and demographic shifts, affect workforce availability and wage levels. Migration policies in the US and Mexico impact labor supply in manufacturing hubs, influencing production costs and operational planning for multinational companies.
Trade Policy and Tariff Changes
India's evolving trade policies, including tariff adjustments and import-export regulations, impact cost structures and market access. Businesses must monitor these changes to optimize sourcing, pricing, and compliance strategies.
Trade Relations and Economic Partnerships
Saudi Arabia's trade agreements and partnerships, including those within the Gulf Cooperation Council and with major economies like China and the US, shape market access and investment flows, affecting global business strategies.
Fiscal Expansion and Debt Risks
Germany’s fiscal policy has shifted toward massive state spending, with over €850 billion in new debt planned by 2035. Bond markets are reacting with rising yields and shrinking risk premiums, signaling concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability and potential tax or inflation impacts on business operations.
China's Green Energy Push
China's aggressive investment in renewable energy and electric vehicles reshapes global commodity markets and supply chains. This presents opportunities for investors in green technologies but challenges traditional energy sectors.
Resource Export Dependency
Australia's economy remains heavily reliant on resource exports, particularly iron ore and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Fluctuations in global commodity prices and demand from major partners like China influence investment decisions and trade balances, underscoring vulnerabilities to external shocks and the need for economic diversification.
Labor Market Dynamics and Skills Gap
Vietnam's young workforce offers competitive labor costs, yet skill shortages in high-tech sectors limit productivity. Addressing education and training gaps is critical for sustaining industrial upgrading and attracting advanced manufacturing investments.
Technological Decoupling
Restrictions on technology transfer and collaboration limit Russia's access to advanced technologies, impacting innovation and industrial capabilities. For foreign investors, this decoupling challenges joint ventures and technology-dependent projects, requiring reassessment of long-term investment viability.
Global Tariff Shock and Policy Volatility
Sweeping US tariffs—10% baseline and up to 50% reciprocal duties—have triggered extreme market volatility, with $6.6 trillion lost in two days and subsequent rebounds. This unpredictability complicates international investment and supply chain planning.
Regional Trade and Transit Routes
Iran's strategic location as a transit hub between Asia and Europe offers opportunities for regional trade expansion. However, infrastructural deficits and political risks hinder the full exploitation of these transit corridors, affecting logistics and supply chain efficiency.
Geopolitical Tensions and Security Risks
Ongoing regional conflicts and security concerns in Israel pose significant risks to international trade and investment. Heightened tensions with neighboring countries can disrupt supply chains and deter foreign direct investment, necessitating robust risk mitigation strategies for businesses operating in or with Israel.
Semiconductor Industry Strategic Dominance
Taiwan’s leadership in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, exemplified by TSMC’s 2nm chip mass production, remains critical to global technology supply chains. Geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions pose significant risks to international business operations and AI sector investment strategies.
Energy Infrastructure Expansion
Israel has approved major energy projects, including a 900-megawatt power plant near Jerusalem, to meet rising demand and support future data centers. These developments offer opportunities for foreign investment but are subject to long regulatory timelines and regional risks.
Infrastructure Modernization and Transport Networks
Investments in modernizing France's transport infrastructure, including rail and ports, aim to enhance logistics efficiency. Improved connectivity supports supply chain resilience and attracts foreign investment, facilitating smoother international trade flows.
Labor Market Dynamics and Workforce Skills
Labor reforms and workforce skill development are pivotal in Brazil's business environment. Challenges include labor market rigidities and skill mismatches, impacting productivity and operational costs. Understanding these dynamics is essential for companies relying on local talent and labor-intensive industries.
Migration and Labor Market Effects
The Venezuelan diaspora in the US shapes labor market dynamics and consumer demographics. Migration trends influence workforce availability and create new market opportunities, affecting business strategies in sectors linked to Venezuela.
Environmental Regulations and Green Transition
China's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 is accelerating environmental regulations across industries. Businesses must adapt to stricter emissions standards and invest in sustainable technologies, influencing operational costs and opening opportunities in green sectors.
Labor Market Dynamics
Thailand's labor market is characterized by a skilled yet aging workforce, with implications for productivity and wage trends. Labor regulations and availability influence operational costs and investment decisions, particularly in labor-intensive industries.
Sanctions Intensify Trade Restrictions
Renewed UN and US sanctions have frozen Iranian assets, restricted arms and technology trade, and targeted the ballistic missile program. These measures disrupt supply chains, limit market access, and complicate international payments, directly impacting foreign investment and trade flows.
Geopolitical Risks and Strategic Autonomy
Heightened US-China tensions and US assertiveness in Latin America create uncertainty for Brazil’s trade and investment environment. Brazil’s strategy of balancing relations with both powers, while leveraging its energy and mineral resources, is critical for business resilience.
Trade Policy and International Relations
Brazil's trade policies and diplomatic relations, especially within Mercosur and with major partners like China and the US, play a pivotal role in shaping market access and tariff structures. Shifts in trade agreements or geopolitical tensions can alter supply chain routes and investment flows.
Post-Brexit Trade Adjustments
The United Kingdom continues to navigate complex trade realignments post-Brexit, impacting customs procedures and regulatory standards. These changes affect supply chains, increasing costs and delays for businesses engaged in EU trade, necessitating strategic adjustments in sourcing and distribution to mitigate disruptions and maintain market access.
Labor Market Dynamics and Talent Availability
Israel's highly educated workforce, particularly in STEM fields, supports its competitive advantage in high-tech industries. However, labor market challenges, including skill shortages and wage pressures, may affect operational costs and talent acquisition strategies.
Environmental Regulations and Sustainability
Stringent environmental policies in France drive corporate sustainability initiatives and impact manufacturing costs. Compliance requirements influence investment decisions and supply chain configurations, aligning business practices with global ESG standards.
Aerospace Sector Warns On Taxation
France’s aerospace industry, a key contributor to trade surplus and employment, warns that excessive taxation and supply chain vulnerabilities could undermine competitiveness. The sector’s fiscal and regulatory environment is critical for foreign investors and partners.
Japanese Yen Volatility and Monetary Policy
The yen’s volatility, driven by cautious Bank of Japan tightening and external shocks, impacts trade competitiveness and investment returns. Currency fluctuations and rising bond yields require international firms to hedge exposures and monitor policy signals closely.
Regulatory Environment and Business Reforms
Ongoing regulatory reforms aimed at improving the ease of doing business in Israel enhance investor confidence. Streamlined procedures and improved corporate governance standards positively influence foreign investment and operational efficiency.