Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 11, 2024
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The election of Donald Trump as the next US President has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with markets and businesses bracing for the impact of his policies. Trump's protectionist stance and threat of tariffs on imports from China and Europe have raised concerns about a potential trade war, with Asia and Ireland particularly exposed. Meanwhile, Taiwan welcomed Trump's victory, but analysts warn of potential risks to its relationship with the US and China.
Trump's Tariff Plan and the Global Economy
Donald Trump's election as the next US President has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with markets and businesses bracing for the impact of his policies. Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China and 10-20% on imports from Europe, which could trigger a global trade war. Asia, which contributes the largest share of global growth, is particularly exposed, with production chains closely linked to China and significant investment from Beijing. Ireland, with its large exposure to the US market, is also vulnerable, as 75% of its goods exports to the US are chemical or pharma products produced by US multinationals operating in the country.
Taiwan's Relationship with the US and China
Taiwan has publicly hailed Trump's victory, but analysts warn of potential risks to its relationship with the US and China. Trump has suggested that Taiwan should pay the US for its defence and accused the island of stealing the US semiconductor industry. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te has expressed confidence in continued US support, but analysts say that Trump's policy on Taiwan is highly uncertain. Taiwan could be caught in the middle of a trade war between the US and China, and any miscalculation by the Trump administration could be costly.
Indonesia's Trade Concerns
Indonesia's businesses are concerned about the impact of Trump's protectionist policies on their access to the US market and competition with Chinese producers. Chinese producers may reroute their goods to Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, if they face similar barriers to the US market. Indonesia's exports to the US could also be affected by Trump's policies, as the US is the second-largest export market for Indonesian goods. Indonesia's government is considering actions to minimise the negative impact, including pushing for trade deals, diversifying export markets, and improving competitiveness.
Trump's Approach to the EU and UK
Trump is expected to target the EU over the UK in a potential trade war, as he wants to see a successful Brexit. Trump is likely to give a preferential trade deal to the UK, while tariffs will more greatly affect the EU than the UK. Trump believes in the special relationship between the US and the UK and wants to help with a successful Brexit. The UK chancellor is expected to promote free and open trade between nations as a cornerstone of UK economic policy, calling for continued partnerships with Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and the US.
Further Reading:
Asia, the world's economic engine, prepares for Trump shock - Japan Today
Eoin Burke-Kennedy: Ireland’s €54bn exposure to Trump’s tariff plan - The Irish Times
Indonesia’s businesses fear deluge of Chinese goods after Trump takes office - asianews.network
Turkey Deports 325 Afghan Nationals In 48 Hours - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Themes around the World:
Investment Decisions Face Delays
Business groups and automakers warn that recurring annual reviews and shifting tariff rules are delaying capital commitments. With negotiations potentially extending for months or years, companies face greater difficulty evaluating factory siting, supplier contracts, and medium-term North American expansion plans.
Coalition Government Instability and Reshuffles
DA leader Hill-Lewis forced a GNU cabinet reshuffle, demoting Steenhuisen amid farmer backlash, while provincial coalitions in KwaZulu-Natal wobble. Ahead of November 2026 local elections, fragile coalition dynamics and Phala Phala impeachment risk inject policy uncertainty for business.
Structural Trade Deficit and China Shock
Thailand posted a record $6.8 billion April 2026 trade deficit, driven 41% by fuel, 28% by Chinese imports and 26% by Taiwan inputs. Cheap Chinese dumping is displacing local industries, signaling an eroding export base that threatens manufacturing competitiveness.
Trade diversification gains urgency
Amid continuing US tariff pressure and hostile rhetoric, Ottawa is emphasizing trade diversification and Buy Canadian procurement, especially in defence and infrastructure. For international firms, this may gradually shift procurement preferences, partnership structures, and market-entry strategies toward stronger local content and non-US commercial links.
Inversión enfrenta freno precautorio
La principal amenaza señalada por analistas no es una ruptura inmediata, sino la incertidumbre prolongada. Banamex indicó que la formación bruta de capital fijo cayó 6.3% anual en 2025, reflejando cautela empresarial en manufactura, comercio transfronterizo y proyectos de expansión.
Rare Earth Decoupling Accelerates
U.S. government backing for domestic rare earth capacity is intensifying, including major funding and equity support for MP Materials and USA Rare Earth. Firms should expect higher costs, localization pressure, and prolonged parallel supply chains as strategic decoupling deepens.
EU funding supports defense
Ukraine is pressing European partners to accelerate military and financial support, including a requested €6.6 billion from the European Peace Facility. Separate EU-backed programs include a €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan through 2027, with €3.9 billion already directed to drones and weapons capabilities.
Digital payments integration advances
Progress on linking India’s UPI with Indonesia’s payment system and cross-border QR payments would streamline travel, retail transactions and SME commerce. For international businesses, deeper payment interoperability can reduce transaction costs, support tourism demand and improve digital-market access for smaller suppliers.
AI, Data Centers and Cybersecurity Leadership
Saudi Arabia ranks first globally in the Cybersecurity Index for a third year and is investing billions in AI and cloud hubs via HUMAIN. However, Iranian drone strikes on Gulf data centers highlight rising digital-infrastructure security vulnerabilities.
Foreign Investor Confidence Erosion
Foreign investors remain cautious amid political and regional risk. BBVA estimates foreigners sold up to $35 billion of Turkish assets after the Middle East war and recovered only $10 billion, leaving net outflows of $25 billion and pressuring financing conditions and valuations.
Defense infrastructure gains prominence
Articles highlighted possible use of Finnish airbases covered by U.S.-Finland defense cooperation, with access to 15 military sites. Greater defense activity can stimulate construction, services and technology demand, but may also crowd infrastructure, tighten compliance and elevate local operational sensitivity.
US-China Rare Earth Export Retaliation
Beijing imposed dual-use export controls on 10 US firms including rare-earth miners MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, retaliating against Pentagon blacklisting. The calibrated move targets critical minerals central to US supply-chain independence efforts, threatening defense-tech procurement globally.
Fiscal tightening and debt pressure
France’s debt exceeded €3.5 trillion, or 117.5% of GDP, while the government announced €3 billion in additional savings and cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.7%. Businesses face higher tax, spending-cut and financing-risk uncertainty.
Robust Macroeconomic Growth Momentum
Vietnam grew 8.02% in 2025 and targets double-digit growth for 2026-2030, with GDP near $514-527 billion. Trade-to-GDP approaches 170% and exports exceed $400 billion, positioning Vietnam to overtake Thailand as ASEAN's second-largest economy.
Cambodia Border Dispute Risks
Thailand’s dispute with Cambodia has entered UNCLOS conciliation over a 26,000 sq km overlapping maritime area estimated to hold nearly 12 trillion cubic feet of gas and oil worth about US$300 billion, sustaining border, logistics, and energy-security risks.
China Drives Regional Trade Rewiring
U.S. trade demands are increasingly aimed at blocking Chinese goods from entering through North America, including tighter rules of origin and broader anti-transshipment provisions. This is pushing firms to reassess supplier exposure, compliance systems, and manufacturing footprints across Mexico, Canada, and the United States.
Rising Defense Industry Global Ambitions
Turkish arms exports rose 29.5% to ~$4bn in five months; Ankara targets tenth globally. NATO summit showcases Aselsan, Baykar, and joint ventures with Leonardo and Safran, positioning Turkey as a defense-supply partner for European rearmament.
US Export-Control Enforcement Slowdown
Washington delayed blacklisting DeepSeek, CXMT, and over 100 flagged Chinese firms despite interagency approval, to avoid escalating tensions. The pause since October weakens a key national-security tool, reflecting trade priorities overriding semiconductor and AI containment efforts.
B50 Mandate Reshapes Trade
Indonesia plans to launch B50 biodiesel on 1 July, targeting savings of about Rp157.28 trillion in diesel imports. This supports palm oil demand and energy security, but could alter feedstock pricing, logistics costs and fuel procurement across transport and industry.
Critical Minerals Supply Realignment
US-China rivalry is pushing South Korean firms to redesign sourcing beyond cost efficiency toward security and resilience. Critical-mineral procurement, stockpiling and overseas investment are becoming strategic priorities, with implications for batteries, electronics, advanced manufacturing and long-term capital allocation decisions.
Police Corruption and Crime Crisis
The Madlanga Commission exposed deep criminal infiltration of SAPS, with senior officers arrested and public IDAC-police feuds eroding institutional trust. With 58 murders daily and 56% of police stations unreachable by phone, crime remains a major operating-cost and security risk.
Shipping normalization losing momentum
Recent reopening momentum has weakened: traffic reached 78 vessels on one day, then slowed after new attacks, with analysts saying normalization lost pace. Israeli traders and investors therefore face continued uncertainty over transit timing, inventory buffers, and shipping availability.
Trade Diversification and China Curbs
Mexico imposed 50% tariffs on Asian vehicle imports to curb Chinese expansion, while deepening ties with Brazil (Pemex-Petrobras pact, $18.5B trade). Washington pushes stronger verification to block indirect Chinese goods, reshaping sourcing strategies and supplier networks.
Non-Aligned Foreign Policy Friction
Pretoria's deepening BRICS, China, Russia, and Iran ties—plus its ICJ case against Israel—clash with Washington's demands, risking Western investor confidence and financing. China remains SA's largest trading partner despite a wide bilateral deficit (R440bn imports vs R240bn exports).
Seguridad y logística bajo presión
La agenda comercial con Estados Unidos incorpora seguridad fronteriza, narcotráfico y crimen organizado, elevando riesgos para transporte, almacenes y operaciones regionales. La violencia territorial y mayores controles fronterizos pueden generar interrupciones logísticas, costos de cumplimiento más altos y decisiones más cautas.
Climate Adaptation Costs and Energy
Record heatwaves cut EDF nuclear output 8.7%, forcing reactor shutdowns and highlighting €34bn/year needed for climate adaptation. Water-management disputes complicate agricultural policy, while France advances EPR2 reactors and EV electrification (30% of vehicle sales).
Shrinking US trade surplus
India’s goods trade surplus with the US has narrowed sharply as imports rose faster than exports. Exports reached about USD 87.3 billion, while imports climbed to roughly USD 52.9 billion, driven by energy, machinery, metals and aircraft purchases, reshaping sector opportunities.
CUSMA Not Renewed, Decade of Uncertainty
Washington declined to renew CUSMA on July 1, triggering annual rolling reviews until possible 2036 expiry rather than a 16-year extension. This prolongs uncertainty across the $2.5-trillion trade bloc, chilling investment in integrated supply chains, especially autos.
Green infrastructure partnerships grow
Foreign-backed sustainability projects are advancing, illustrated by a $74 million Japanese-Vietnamese waste-to-energy plant in Bac Ninh processing 500 tons daily and generating 11.6 MW. Such projects indicate growing openings in climate infrastructure, carbon reduction technologies and environmentally compliant industrial development.
Agriculture biosecurity and market access
The foot-and-mouth disease crisis has triggered political fallout, including the agriculture minister’s removal, underscoring biosecurity weaknesses in a major export sector. Continued disruption could affect livestock trade, food-processing supply chains, sanitary compliance costs and broader confidence in agricultural market access management.
Europe Hardens China Defenses
As Chinese exports are redirected from the US toward Europe and Asia, European governments are moving toward tougher trade defenses. Rising imports, including a 16.4% increase to the EU in early 2026, heighten risks of tariffs, subsidy investigations and stricter market access conditions.
US-China tech rivalry persists
Despite a temporary diplomatic floor after the leaders’ summit, reporting from Dalian highlights continued exposure to tariffs, chip controls, AI competition, and investment restrictions. Businesses should expect ongoing policy volatility affecting technology transfers, market access, financing, and long-term capital allocation.
Nordic deterrence coordination deepens
Coverage indicated Finland is coordinating more closely with Nordic peers on deterrence policy, while evaluating wider European nuclear arrangements. For companies, tighter Nordic security integration may support joint infrastructure and defense procurement, but also reinforce regional exposure to Russia-related tensions.
Policy Uncertainty Raises Cost of Capital
Frequent shifts across tariffs, export controls, sanctions, and court rulings are increasing planning risk for cross-border business in the United States. Higher compliance costs, volatile import pricing, and unclear policy durability can delay capital allocation, supplier moves, and expansion strategies.
Energy Security and Power Supply Risks
Rising 10-12% annual power demand strains supply. Coal generation surged to 56% in March 2026 amid Middle East LNG price shocks, undermining net-zero goals. PDP8 requires massive LNG, offshore wind, and possible nuclear investment; a major 500kV project corruption case indicts 47.
Logistics Corridor Competition
Israel’s ambition to position itself as a corridor linking Gulf and South Asian trade to Europe faces execution risk. Conflict, strained fiscal capacity, labor shortages and geopolitical competition from alternative routes through Turkey and Iraq may delay infrastructure-linked trade opportunities.