Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 11, 2024
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The election of Donald Trump as the next US President has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with markets and businesses bracing for the impact of his policies. Trump's protectionist stance and threat of tariffs on imports from China and Europe have raised concerns about a potential trade war, with Asia and Ireland particularly exposed. Meanwhile, Taiwan welcomed Trump's victory, but analysts warn of potential risks to its relationship with the US and China.
Trump's Tariff Plan and the Global Economy
Donald Trump's election as the next US President has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with markets and businesses bracing for the impact of his policies. Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China and 10-20% on imports from Europe, which could trigger a global trade war. Asia, which contributes the largest share of global growth, is particularly exposed, with production chains closely linked to China and significant investment from Beijing. Ireland, with its large exposure to the US market, is also vulnerable, as 75% of its goods exports to the US are chemical or pharma products produced by US multinationals operating in the country.
Taiwan's Relationship with the US and China
Taiwan has publicly hailed Trump's victory, but analysts warn of potential risks to its relationship with the US and China. Trump has suggested that Taiwan should pay the US for its defence and accused the island of stealing the US semiconductor industry. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te has expressed confidence in continued US support, but analysts say that Trump's policy on Taiwan is highly uncertain. Taiwan could be caught in the middle of a trade war between the US and China, and any miscalculation by the Trump administration could be costly.
Indonesia's Trade Concerns
Indonesia's businesses are concerned about the impact of Trump's protectionist policies on their access to the US market and competition with Chinese producers. Chinese producers may reroute their goods to Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, if they face similar barriers to the US market. Indonesia's exports to the US could also be affected by Trump's policies, as the US is the second-largest export market for Indonesian goods. Indonesia's government is considering actions to minimise the negative impact, including pushing for trade deals, diversifying export markets, and improving competitiveness.
Trump's Approach to the EU and UK
Trump is expected to target the EU over the UK in a potential trade war, as he wants to see a successful Brexit. Trump is likely to give a preferential trade deal to the UK, while tariffs will more greatly affect the EU than the UK. Trump believes in the special relationship between the US and the UK and wants to help with a successful Brexit. The UK chancellor is expected to promote free and open trade between nations as a cornerstone of UK economic policy, calling for continued partnerships with Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and the US.
Further Reading:
Asia, the world's economic engine, prepares for Trump shock - Japan Today
Eoin Burke-Kennedy: Ireland’s €54bn exposure to Trump’s tariff plan - The Irish Times
Indonesia’s businesses fear deluge of Chinese goods after Trump takes office - asianews.network
Turkey Deports 325 Afghan Nationals In 48 Hours - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Themes around the World:
Rhine low water disrupts logistics
Record low Rhine water levels are constraining inland shipping, raising transport costs and threatening deliveries of oil, coal, chemicals and other industrial inputs. German states are easing truck bans in response, but companies still face supply-chain delays, modal shifts, and regional cost inflation.
Black Sea truce diplomacy matters
Kyiv has reportedly proposed a moratorium on attacks against civilian targets in the Black Sea, with Türkiye also advocating restraint. Any progress could materially improve shipping confidence, while failure would prolong blockade conditions, food-price volatility, and operating uncertainty for regional trade networks.
Germany export markets rebalancing
Weakening sales to Germany’s two largest external markets are being partly offset by stronger Central and Eastern European demand. First-half exports fell 12.4% to China and 6.5% to the US, while shipments to Poland rose 9.2% and Czechia 14%.
External financing diversification sought
Pakistan is seeking a possible $10 billion US Exchange Stabilisation Facility while also pursuing longer bilateral maturities and EXIM support. Any progress would strengthen reserves, ease pressure on the rupee and improve payment capacity, affecting importer risk assessments and cross-border financing conditions.
Transshipment scrutiny hits exporters
Washington placed Thailand among countries with deep China-linked supply chains that could facilitate illegal transshipment, prompting Thai shippers to warn of weaker US confidence in Thai exports and greater customs, compliance, and routing risks.
China-plus-one model under scrutiny
Articles note Vietnam benefited from supply-chain diversification out of China, including investment by Chinese-owned factories. However, tighter US enforcement is blurring the line between legitimate manufacturing relocation and tariff evasion, complicating future sourcing, ownership and investment structures.
US-Canada Trade War Reaches Inflection Point
Trump paused threatened 50% tariffs on $20 billion in Canadian goods for three days amid deal negotiations covering autos, dairy, steel, aluminum, and critical minerals. CUSMA's future beyond 2036 remains uncertain, creating significant North American supply chain volatility for manufacturers and exporters.
Defense industrial ties expand
U.S.-Taiwan defense cooperation is moving toward industrial integration, especially in drones. New U.S. legislation mandates co-development and co-production frameworks, while Taiwan is considering multi-year funding for domestic unmanned systems, creating opportunities for certified manufacturers and resilient dual-use supply chains.
FTA-led export market expansion
Recent official messaging repeatedly ties India’s export strategy to newly concluded trade agreements and broader market access. For firms in agriculture, food processing, manufacturing and services, this increases opportunities to diversify customers and reduce dependence on any single market.
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Elevates Energy Costs
The US-Iran conflict has reduced Strait of Hormuz shipping from 130+ daily vessels to single digits, pushing Brent crude above $90. The administration prioritizes lowering oil prices while maintaining an indefinite naval blockade, creating persistent energy cost uncertainty for global businesses and consumers.
Military drills raise logistics risk
Han Kuang exercises expanded to anti-blockade scenarios, escorted shipping, factory wartime conversion, and even temporary 4G/5G disruption testing. Separate reporting notes Chinese and Indonesian naval activity east of Taiwan, increasing freight, insurance, and continuity-planning concerns for firms reliant on island logistics.
US AGOA access stabilised
The US Senate backed a two-year AGOA extension, offering temporary certainty for South African exporters after prolonged uncertainty. With roughly $8 billion in exports to the US, continued duty-free access materially affects manufacturing, agriculture and investor confidence despite strained bilateral relations.
Russia tensions complicate LNG
Putin’s visit to the disputed Kuril Islands is sharpening pressure for tougher Japanese sanctions, yet Japan still relies on Sakhalin LNG. That leaves businesses facing elevated geopolitical risk around energy sourcing, bilateral trade policy, and possible further disruption in Northeast Asian commercial ties.
Federal Reserve Credibility and Rate Uncertainty
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's refusal to provide forward guidance amid 3.4% inflation triggered a Treasury bond selloff, pushing 30-year yields to near 20-year highs. Markets price a 40-56% probability of a September rate hike, complicating borrowing costs for businesses amid a weakening labor market that lost 23,000 jobs in July.
Eskom restructuring legal contest
Eskom’s planned transmission unbundling is encountering union litigation risk, with NUM warning that transferring about R100 billion of assets could weaken liquidity. For investors and operators, the dispute clouds electricity-market reform timing, tariff trajectories and power-sector counterpart stability.
Business Sentiment Turning Defensive
Surveys show growing corporate caution: about 70% of business leaders favor a tough negotiating stance, 77% of affected exporters expect revenue losses, 55% of small firms have cut spending, and 25% have delayed hiring amid tariff risks.
Supply chains constrain retaliation options
Brazilian officials are signaling caution because broad retaliation could hurt domestic industries reliant on US machinery, components, technology, and inputs. For multinationals, this underscores deep bilateral supply-chain integration and the risk of second-order cost increases across manufacturing operations.
Shipping Ceasefire Diplomacy Stalled
Ukraine’s proposal for a Black Sea truce covering civilian shipping was rejected by Russia, which linked any deal to protection for its energy infrastructure. The failed diplomacy prolongs uncertainty for maritime insurers, commodity traders, freight planning and reconstruction-related investment decisions.
AI Memory Shortage Cost Pressures
AI data-center demand has driven a severe global memory shortage, with DRAM prices reported up about 29% in 2026. Rising component costs are already pressuring electronics pricing and procurement strategies, forcing companies to diversify sourcing and reassess inventory resilience.
Investor confidence in hydrocarbons
The petroleum ministry says cleared partner arrears, 19 signed agreements worth at least $823.1 million, and 13 more planned agreements above $1 billion are reviving exploration. This improves Egypt’s appeal for foreign capital, field services, and long-cycle energy investment commitments.
Drought hits fuel logistics
Extreme heat and low Rhine water levels are disrupting fuel deliveries into eastern France. Around 14% of stations reported shortages of at least one product, with some departments facing 25-50% shortages, exposing climate-linked inland logistics vulnerability for distributors and manufacturers.
China ties stabilize cautiously
Australia’s relationship with China has moved to a more stable baseline after earlier trade sanctions worth about US$20 billion were wound back, but technology, infrastructure and Taiwan-related frictions still leave exporters, investors and supply chains exposed to renewed disruption.
US tariff pressure intensifies
Thailand faces proposed US tariffs of 12.5% on most exports and is seeking improved terms after recording a US$51.4 billion trade surplus with the US in 2025, raising risks for exporters, pricing, and market access planning.
Auto sector contraction deepens
Germany’s automotive industry lost 42,300 jobs year on year, a 5.8% decline, while manufacturing overall shed 144,100 positions. Falling exports to China by over 12% and to the US by around 6% highlight weakening external demand, affecting suppliers, location strategies, and industrial employment exposure.
Oil and gas investment push
Cairo launched a 2026 bid round covering 14 exploration areas and is preparing 13 additional agreements worth more than $1 billion. Cleared partner arrears, digital bidding and proximity to existing infrastructure are designed to accelerate foreign upstream investment.
Development Road trade integration
Energy agreements with Iraq are increasingly tied to the Development Road corridor, a roughly $17 billion logistics project linking the Gulf to Europe through Turkey. Closer integration of transport and energy networks could alter freight routing, industrial siting and corridor investment strategies.
Export revenues under severe pressure
The maritime shutdown is directly hitting Ukraine’s hard-currency earnings. The National Bank estimated more than $2 billion in lost export revenue for second-half 2026 alone, while blocked grain flows and lower domestic prices threaten bankruptcies across agriculture and related logistics sectors.
Intel-linked industrial plans diverted
Most of the latest defense top-up, 850 million shekels, was redirected from Economy Ministry funds previously intended for technological development and support around a new Intel facility. This signals policy volatility for industrial incentives and uncertainty around large capital projects.
Shadow fleet compliance squeeze
Roughly 700 vessels carrying Russian oil are reportedly under sanctions, with about half ceasing such operations. Expanded scrutiny of reflagged and older tankers raises shipping, insurance and due-diligence costs for firms exposed to Russian maritime logistics.
India-SACU Preferential Trade Agreement Negotiations
India and the Southern African Customs Union signed terms of reference for a preferential trade agreement covering automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and machinery. South Africa considers doubling auto import duties to 50%, while India seeks reliable access to platinum-group metals, manganese, and copper for clean energy supply chains.
Inflation From Trade Measures
New and proposed tariffs risk feeding domestic price pressures, with U.S. consumer prices up 3.4% year-on-year in one report and tariffs estimated to cost households about $1,100 annually. Higher landed costs could affect margins, pricing, and consumer demand.
Summer transport strikes intensify
Labor unrest is disrupting French transport at peak season. EasyJet cabin-crew strikes canceled 180 flights and affected more than 30,000 passengers, while transit tensions in Nice persisted, increasing operational uncertainty for travel, tourism, cargo timing, and business mobility planning.
US transshipment scrutiny intensifies
Washington’s anti-circumvention push has placed Vietnam under heightened origin-verification pressure, with AI-based customs screening, possible 40% penalty tariffs on transshipped goods, and broader compliance demands that could raise documentation costs, shipment delays, and US market-access risk for exporters.
Russia Sanctions Legislation Expands Presidential Tariff Authority
The Senate passed the Graham Act (86-11) allowing 100% tariffs on top five Russian energy buyers including China, India, and EU nations. The bill grants sweeping new presidential trade powers, potentially triggering secondary sanctions conflicts with major US trading partners and disrupting global energy markets.
Tech Regulation Bilateral Irritant
U.S. concerns over South Korean regulation of American technology platforms, including scrutiny linked to Coupang and misinformation rules, have become a bilateral issue. Heightened regulatory friction may affect digital trade, platform compliance costs, foreign investor sentiment, and broader market-access negotiations.
Earthquake disrupts industrial clusters
A magnitude 7.1 earthquake in Kumamoto halted production at Toyota, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Renesas, Sony and others, exposing concentration risk in Japan’s auto and semiconductor base and threatening supplier shortages, shipment delays, and resilience costs across regional manufacturing networks.