Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 11, 2024
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The election of Donald Trump as the next US President has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with markets and businesses bracing for the impact of his policies. Trump's protectionist stance and threat of tariffs on imports from China and Europe have raised concerns about a potential trade war, with Asia and Ireland particularly exposed. Meanwhile, Taiwan welcomed Trump's victory, but analysts warn of potential risks to its relationship with the US and China.
Trump's Tariff Plan and the Global Economy
Donald Trump's election as the next US President has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with markets and businesses bracing for the impact of his policies. Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China and 10-20% on imports from Europe, which could trigger a global trade war. Asia, which contributes the largest share of global growth, is particularly exposed, with production chains closely linked to China and significant investment from Beijing. Ireland, with its large exposure to the US market, is also vulnerable, as 75% of its goods exports to the US are chemical or pharma products produced by US multinationals operating in the country.
Taiwan's Relationship with the US and China
Taiwan has publicly hailed Trump's victory, but analysts warn of potential risks to its relationship with the US and China. Trump has suggested that Taiwan should pay the US for its defence and accused the island of stealing the US semiconductor industry. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te has expressed confidence in continued US support, but analysts say that Trump's policy on Taiwan is highly uncertain. Taiwan could be caught in the middle of a trade war between the US and China, and any miscalculation by the Trump administration could be costly.
Indonesia's Trade Concerns
Indonesia's businesses are concerned about the impact of Trump's protectionist policies on their access to the US market and competition with Chinese producers. Chinese producers may reroute their goods to Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, if they face similar barriers to the US market. Indonesia's exports to the US could also be affected by Trump's policies, as the US is the second-largest export market for Indonesian goods. Indonesia's government is considering actions to minimise the negative impact, including pushing for trade deals, diversifying export markets, and improving competitiveness.
Trump's Approach to the EU and UK
Trump is expected to target the EU over the UK in a potential trade war, as he wants to see a successful Brexit. Trump is likely to give a preferential trade deal to the UK, while tariffs will more greatly affect the EU than the UK. Trump believes in the special relationship between the US and the UK and wants to help with a successful Brexit. The UK chancellor is expected to promote free and open trade between nations as a cornerstone of UK economic policy, calling for continued partnerships with Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and the US.
Further Reading:
Asia, the world's economic engine, prepares for Trump shock - Japan Today
Eoin Burke-Kennedy: Ireland’s €54bn exposure to Trump’s tariff plan - The Irish Times
Indonesia’s businesses fear deluge of Chinese goods after Trump takes office - asianews.network
Turkey Deports 325 Afghan Nationals In 48 Hours - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Themes around the World:
Trade Corridor and Export Market Shifts
Cross-border and export dynamics are changing. The Mozambique–South Africa Lebombo corridor has cut truck waits from days to 20–30 minutes, but exporters still face Middle East market disruption, higher shipping costs and pressure on citrus, fuel and broader trade flows.
Inflation and Rate Risks Reprice
Inflation remains contained but is drifting upward as fuel and energy shocks feed through. The central bank expects 3.7% average inflation this year, while markets now price roughly two 25-basis-point hikes, increasing financing costs, exchange-rate volatility, and consumer demand uncertainty.
EV Manufacturing Investment Surge
Thailand is deepening its role as an ASEAN electric-vehicle base as Chery opens a Rayong plant targeting 80,000 units by 2030. Planned trade-in incentives and local-content rules support suppliers, but intensify competition, Chinese exposure and technology-transfer dynamics for investors.
Sanctions Enforcement Expands Extraterritorially
The United States is escalating sanctions on Iranian oil networks and warning foreign banks, including in China, about secondary sanctions exposure. Firms in shipping, energy, finance and commodities must prepare for stricter due diligence, counterparty screening and sudden disruptions to cross-border transactions.
Port Capacity and Logistics Upgrade
Major port investments are reshaping trade logistics. Da Nang’s Lien Chieu project will add 5.7 million TEU capacity and handle 18,000-TEU vessels, while Hai Phong’s mega-ship access can reduce foreign transshipment dependence, lower logistics costs and improve reliability for manufacturers and exporters.
Tighter North American Content Rules
US negotiators are pushing stricter rules of origin, including proposals for 100% regional sourcing in key auto components, above the current roughly 75% threshold. Companies may need supplier reshoring, higher compliance spending, and redesigned procurement strategies across Mexico operations.
Middle East Energy Shipping Shock
Conflict around the Strait of Hormuz is raising oil prices, delaying cargoes, and disrupting access to crude, naphtha, helium, and ammonia. Given Korea’s heavy maritime and energy dependence, firms face higher input costs, shipping delays, and pressure to diversify sourcing routes.
Asian Demand Reorients Trade Flows
Russia’s export model is increasingly concentrated in Asia, raising geopolitical and payment concentration risks. India imported about 2 million bpd and China 1.8 million bpd in March, while Turkey remains important, making market access more dependent on non-Western buyers and intermediaries.
Selective US Industrial Expansion
US manufacturing is expanding unevenly, with stronger momentum in AI-linked equipment, semiconductors, aerospace, and defense-related output rather than across-the-board reshoring. This favors investors aligned with demand-led sectors, while traditional import-competing industries remain exposed to cost and policy distortions.
Coalition Friction Delays Reforms
Tensions between the CDU-led chancellery and SPD are complicating tax, pension, health and debt-brake reforms. Political fragmentation, including AfD polling at 26%, raises policy unpredictability, slows implementation and makes it harder for businesses to assess Germany’s medium-term regulatory and fiscal direction.
EV Transition and Industrial Policy
Thailand is pairing near-term energy relief with longer-term industrial policy support for EVs, hybrids, semiconductors, and clean energy. Incentives, trade-in proposals, and green financing may attract advanced manufacturing, though competition from lower-cost regional peers remains intense.
Manufacturing Competitiveness Pressures
India’s manufacturing push is gaining policy support, yet global friendshoring competition from Vietnam, Mexico and others remains intense. Falling manufacturing share in GVA, land constraints and low private-sector R&D underscore execution risks for companies planning long-term industrial investment.
US Tariff Scrutiny Escalates
Vietnam faces rising trade risk from US scrutiny of transshipment, rules of origin and excess manufacturing capacity. With a reported US$178 billion 2025 surplus with the US, exporters in electronics, furniture and machinery face higher compliance costs and possible tariff disruption.
Freight Costs and Port Rebalancing
U.S. container imports reached 2,353,611 TEUs in March, up 12.4% from February, as shipping disruptions and trucking shortages lifted transport costs. Cargo is shifting toward East and Gulf Coast ports, while diesel prices, fraud, and constrained driver capacity increase logistics risk for importers and exporters.
Trade remedies raising input costs
Australia lifted tariffs on Chinese steel reinforcing bar to 24% from 19% after anti-dumping findings. While supporting domestic manufacturers, higher trade barriers may increase construction costs, add inflation pressure, and affect project economics for investors across real estate, infrastructure, and industrial sectors.
Capital Allocation Shifts Abroad
Taiwanese firms are committing at least US$250 billion to US semiconductor, energy and AI production, with Taiwan’s government offering another US$250 billion in financing support. This outward investment diversifies risk, but may tighten domestic labor, capital and supplier availability for locally based operations.
Semiconductor Manufacturing Push
India is deepening industrial policy support for chips and electronics, including a ₹91,000 crore TATA semiconductor fab SEZ and multiple approved component projects. The buildout can strengthen supply-chain resilience, attract strategic capital, and expand domestic high-value manufacturing capabilities over time.
Resilient tech attracting capital
Despite wartime conditions, Israel’s technology sector continues drawing foreign funding, with 28 startups raising $1.1 billion in March and first-quarter funding above $3 billion. This supports M&A, innovation partnerships and high-value services exports, but concentration risk remains.
Privatization Drive Attracts Capital
Egypt is accelerating state asset sales and listings to raise foreign capital, deepen markets, and expand private-sector participation. Government reporting says $6 billion has been raised from 19 exit deals, while fresh IPOs and petroleum listings could create new entry points for investors.
Labor Regulation Cost Pressure
Brazil’s policy debate on working-time and labor protections is raising concern over future operating costs, especially in services, retail, and platform-based sectors. Even before reform, wage pressures and labor-market tightness are contributing to sticky services inflation and compliance risk.
Secondary Sanctions Financial Exposure
US warnings of possible secondary sanctions on Chinese banks over Iran-linked transactions underscore rising financial and geopolitical risk. Companies trading through Chinese counterparties face greater scrutiny of payment channels, energy exposure, and sanctions compliance, especially where Middle East trade and shipping are involved.
Security and cargo theft risks
Organized crime remains a material operational threat for manufacturers, exporters and logistics providers, especially on road freight corridors and border routes. Elevated cargo theft, extortion and localized cartel influence raise insurance, security and routing costs while undermining just-in-time supply chains.
US Trade Deal Rebalancing
Thailand is prioritizing a reciprocal trade agreement with the United States after bilateral trade exceeded $93.6-$110 billion in 2025. Talks target tariffs, automotive standards, pharmaceuticals and farm access, creating material implications for exporters, regulatory compliance and sourcing decisions.
Tariff Volatility Reshapes Trade
Frequent changes in U.S. tariffs remain the biggest driver of trade uncertainty, raising landed costs, delaying sourcing decisions, and distorting freight flows. Effective tariff rates remain historically elevated, while new Section 232 and 301 actions risk further cost inflation and retaliatory disruption.
Security Threats Disrupt Logistics
Cargo theft, extortion and violence remain direct operational risks for supply chains. Recent trucker protests and blockades disrupted corridors across 13 to 20 states, while officials recorded 6,263 cargo robbery investigations in 2025 and industry estimates exceed 16,000 incidents annually.
Inflation and Interest Pressure
Urban inflation rose to 15.2% in March, while the policy rate remains 19% and markets expect possible further tightening. Higher fuel, transport, electricity, and food costs are raising operating expenses, weakening consumer demand, and complicating pricing and working-capital decisions.
Grid access and data-center bottlenecks
France is considering temporary underground-grid connections to accelerate large data-center projects as connection queues clog investment timelines. Reforms aim to reduce delays that can last years, improving digital and AI infrastructure prospects but keeping power-access uncertainty high for energy-intensive projects.
Middle East Shipping Exposure
Conflict-linked disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has sharply raised UK business concern over logistics and supply continuity. ONS data showed 29.4% of transport firms worried about conflict impacts, while manufacturers and retailers also reported steep rises in supply-chain risk.
US-Taiwan Trade Integration Deepens
The new U.S.-Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade cuts tariffs on up to 99% of goods and expands digital trade and investment rules. It should improve market access, but also tightens export-control alignment and compliance obligations for technology-related cross-border business.
Lira Volatility And Reserves
Authorities have spent or swapped over $50 billion to support the lira, while net reserves excluding swaps fell sharply before partial recovery. Persistent currency fragility raises hedging costs, import pricing risk, balance-sheet stress and repatriation concerns for multinationals and investors.
Pound Stability Remains Fragile
The pound has stabilized after IMF-backed reforms and Gulf inflows, but remains vulnerable to external shocks and volatile portfolio capital. Analysts expect roughly 51.58 pounds per dollar by end-June, with renewed pressure from energy prices, shipping disruption, and risk-off flows.
Industrial Policy Favors Strategic Sectors
U.S. manufacturing output rose 2.3% while shipments increased 4.2%, led by semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and aerospace rather than broad tariff protection. Investment is flowing toward sectors backed by demand, subsidies, and security priorities, creating selective opportunities while leaving labor-intensive industries structurally less competitive.
Saudization Compliance Tightening
Labor localization rules are becoming materially stricter, including 60% Saudization in 20 marketing and sales roles and a three-year Nitaqat upgrade targeting 340,000 jobs, raising workforce costs, visa constraints and operational risks for firms relying heavily on expatriate labor.
War Insurance Market Deepening
New insurance and reinsurance mechanisms are reducing one of the biggest barriers to cross-border operations. Poland’s €1.5 billion transport reinsurance program now covers war, sabotage, and confiscation risks, improving conditions for freight, reconstruction contracting, and regional supply-chain re-entry.
US-China Strategic Frictions Deepen
Commercial relations with China remain constrained by unresolved disputes over tariffs, export controls, rare earths, technology access, and Iran-related tensions. This raises exposure for firms dependent on Chinese inputs, cross-border e-commerce, semiconductors, and politically sensitive supply chains serving both markets.
Agribusiness Export Resilience
Brazil remains well positioned in global commodities, with strong foreign interest linked to its exporter status and trade surplus support. A firmer real and sustained demand for agricultural and energy exports benefit producers, but can complicate competitiveness for manufacturers.