Foreign investment screening delays

FIRB/treasury foreign investment approvals remain slower and costlier, increasing execution risk for M&A and greenfield projects. Business groups report unpredictable milestones and missed statutory timelines, while fees have risen sharply (e.g., up to ~A$1.2m for >A$2bn investments), affecting deal economics.

Steel and aluminum tariff escalation

Higher US aluminum and steel tariffs are driving record physical premiums and import dislocations, lifting costs for autos, aerospace, construction, and packaging. Firms face increased input inflation, renegotiation of supply contracts, and pressure to qualify domestic or alternative suppliers.

Semiconductor reshoring and export controls

Taiwan’s chip sector faces simultaneous pressures: US tariffs on certain advanced chips, tighter tech controls toward China, and major offshore fab investment. Firms must redesign compliance, IP protection, and capacity allocation while managing customer qualification and margin impacts.

Tax policy and capital gains timing

The federal government deferred implementation of higher capital gains inclusion to 2026, creating near-term planning windows for exits, restructurings, and inbound investment. Uncertainty over final rules still affects valuation, deal timing, and compensation design.

Water infrastructure failure risk

Water and sanitation systems face an estimated R400 billion rehabilitation backlog, with many municipalities rated “poor” or “critical.” Recent Gauteng outages affected up to 10 million people after power trips. Operational disruption risks include plant shutdowns, hygiene, and industrial downtime.

Trade competitiveness and tariff headwinds

Businesses warn of weak exports and tariff pressures, including potential U.S. measures affecting regional trade. Firms should expect tougher price competition versus Vietnam and Malaysia and prioritize rules-of-origin compliance, diversification of end-markets, and scenario planning for new trade barriers.

Rail et nœuds logistiques fragiles

La régularité ferroviaire s’est dégradée en 2025; retards liés à l’opérateur, au réseau et à facteurs externes. Impacts: fiabilité des flux domestiques/portuaires, coûts de stocks, planning just-in-time, nécessité de redondance multimodale et assurances délai.

Cybersecurity enforcement and compliance

Regulators are escalating cyber-resilience expectations. A landmark ASIC case imposed A$2.5m penalties after a breach leaked ~385GB of client data affecting ~18,000 customers, signalling higher compliance burdens, greater board accountability, and heightened due diligence requirements for vendors handling sensitive data.

Bilateral trade bargaining approach

The administration is pursuing deal-by-deal leverage—e.g., interim trade frameworks with partners and targeted pressure on Canada. Businesses should expect conditional tariff relief, sector carve-outs, and fast-moving negotiation-driven rule changes that complicate pricing, sourcing, and market-entry decisions.

High debt and refinancing sensitivity

Despite improving macro indicators, Egypt’s large public financing needs and high real interest costs keep rollover risk elevated. Any global risk-off shift can widen spreads, pressure the currency, and delay state payments—material for contractors, suppliers, and banks.

Dezenflasyon ve faiz patikası

TCMB 2026 enflasyonunu %15–21 aralığında öngörüyor, hedef %16; politika faizi %37 civarında ve kademeli indirim beklentisi sürüyor. Kur, talep ve kredi koşullarındaki oynaklık ithalat maliyetlerini, fiyatlamayı, yatırımın finansmanını ve sözleşme endekslemelerini etkiliyor.

Mining law and licensing uncertainty

The Mineral Resources Development Amendment Bill has been criticized for ambiguity, while debates over BEE conditions, beneficiation and application timelines continue. Exploration spend fell to about R781m in 2024 (from R6.2bn in 2006), constraining future output and investor appetite.

Shift toward LFP/next-gen chemistries

European producers’ reliance on NMC faces pressure as Chinese suppliers scale LFP and sodium-ion, and solid-state projects advance. French plants may need retooling, new equipment, and revised sourcing to stay cost-competitive, affecting procurement, licensing and offtake contracts.

Rare earths processing and project pipeline

Government promotion of 49 mines and 29 processing projects, plus discoveries in gallium/scandium and magnet rare earths, supports Australia’s shift from raw exports to midstream processing. Opportunities are significant, but permitting, capex, and processing technology risk remain decisive.

Data privacy and surveillance constraints

Growing scrutiny of government and commercial data collection is increasing compliance and reputational risk, especially for data brokers, adtech, and cross-border data users. Senators allege ICE buys location and other sensitive data from brokers; efforts to revive the “Fourth Amendment Is Not for Sale Act” could tighten rules.

China overcapacity and de-risking

EU’s goods deficit with China widened to €359.3bn in 2025 as imports rose 6.3% and exports fell 6.5%. German firms weigh deeper China engagement amid IP and security risks, while Beijing’s export controls and subsidised competition threaten EU-based production.

Logistics and rail capacity buildout

Saudi ports handled 8.3m containers in 2025 (+10.6% YoY), while Saudi Arabia Railways carried 30m tons of freight and 14m passengers in 2025, cutting 2m truck trips. Accelerating multimodal capacity supports supply-chain resilience and inland distribution competitiveness.

Port attacks disrupt Black Sea

Repeated strikes on Odesa-area ports and logistics assets are cutting export earnings by about US$1bn in early 2026 and reducing grain shipment capacity by 20–30%. Higher freight, insurance, and rerouting to rail constrain metals and agrifood supply chains.

Critical minerals processing incentives

India plans incentives for lithium and nickel processing, including ~15% capex subsidies from April 2026 and capped sales-linked support, initially for four projects. This reshapes EV-battery and clean-tech sourcing, reducing China dependence but requiring partners with technology, ESG compliance, and long lead times.

SOE reform momentum and policy execution

Business confidence has improved but remains fragile, with reform progress uneven across Eskom and Transnet. Slippage on rail legislation, ports corporatisation and electricity unbundling timelines creates execution risk for PPPs, project finance, and long-horizon capex decisions.

Energy insecurity and high costs

Gas storage fell below 30% in early February, with some Bavarian sites near-empty, boosting LNG reliance and price volatility. Elevated energy costs threaten energy‑intensive production, contract pricing, and Germany’s investment appeal versus the US and Asia.

China tech export-control tightening

Export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI are tightening, raising compliance risk and limiting China revenue. Nvidia’s H200 China sales face strict, non‑negotiable license terms and end‑use monitoring; Applied Materials agreed to a $252M penalty over alleged SMIC-linked exports, signaling tougher BIS enforcement.

Energy security and LNG logistics

PGN began supplying LNG cargoes from Tangguh Papua to the FSRU Jawa Barat, supporting power and industrial demand with distribution capacity up to 100 MMSCFD. Greater LNG reliance improves near-term supply resilience, but exposes users to shipping, price-indexation, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

War-risk insurance and finance scaling

Multilaterals are expanding risk-sharing and investment guarantees (e.g., EBRD record financing and MIGA guarantees), improving bankability for projects despite conflict. Better coverage can unlock FDI, contractor mobilization, and longer-tenor trade finance, though premiums remain high.

USMCA review and tariff volatility

Mandatory USMCA review by July 1 is becoming contentious; Washington is openly weighing withdrawal and has threatened extreme tariffs and sector levies. Heightened uncertainty disrupts pricing, contract terms, and cross-border auto, metals, agriculture, and services supply chains.

DHS shutdown and border frictions

Repeated funding standoffs risk partial DHS shutdowns, creating operational uncertainty for TSA, Coast Guard, and oversight functions even if ICE/CBP enforcement continues. Cross-border logistics and travel may face delays, staffing disruptions, and heightened scrutiny at ports of entry and airports.

China exposure and strategic assets

Australia’s China-linked trade and investment exposure remains a top operational risk. Moves to potentially reclaim Darwin Port from a Chinese lessee, alongside AUKUS posture, raise retaliation risk. Western Australia’s iron ore exports to China near A$100bn underline concentration risk for supply and revenues.

Export earnings and currency pressure

Port damage is delaying exports of grain and ore, with central bank warnings of lower export revenues and added import needs for fuel and energy equipment. This raises hryvnia volatility and payment risks, impacting pricing, working capital, and hedging strategies for importers/exporters.

FCA enforcement transparency escalation

The FCA’s new Enforcement Watch increases near-real-time visibility of investigations and emphasises individual accountability, Consumer Duty “fair value”, governance and controls. Online brokers and platforms should expect faster supervisory escalation and higher reputational and remediation costs.

Domestic demand pivot and policy easing

Beijing is prioritizing consumption-led growth in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–30), targeting final consumption above 90 trillion yuan and ~60% of GDP. The PBOC signals “moderately loose” policy and ample liquidity. Impacts include shifting sector opportunities toward services and consumer subsidies.

Payment constraints and crypto workarounds

With banking restrictions persistent, Iran increasingly relies on alternative settlement channels including stablecoins and local exchanges, complicating compliance and AML controls. Firms face elevated fraud, convertibility, and repatriation risk, plus higher transaction costs and delayed settlement timelines.

Gas expansion and petrochemicals feedstock

Aramco’s Jafurah unconventional gas project began selling condensate and targets large gas and liquids volumes by 2030, potentially freeing ~1 mb/d of crude for export and boosting NGL supply. This reshapes regional feedstock economics for power, chemicals, and downstream manufacturing.

Pressão socioambiental na Amazônia

Protestos indígenas bloquearam terminal da Cargill em Santarém contra concessões e dragagem na bacia do Tapajós, alegando falta de consulta. O tema eleva risco de paralisações, due diligence socioambiental e exigências de rastreabilidade em cadeias agrícolas.

Critical minerals leverage and reshoring

U.S. policy increasingly links trade and security to critical minerals and domestic capacity. Officials explicitly frame rare earths and magnets as weaponized supply points, reinforcing incentives for reshoring and allied sourcing, and pressuring firms to redesign inputs and secure non-China supply alternatives.

Compliance gaps in industrial estates

Parliamentary disclosures highlighting missing mandatory investment activity reporting by major nickel operators underscore governance and oversight gaps. For multinationals, this elevates ESG, tax, and permitting due-diligence requirements, and increases exposure to audits, fines, or operational interruptions.

Port labor and automation tensions

East/Gulf Coast port labor negotiations and disputes over automation remain a recurring tail risk for U.S. logistics. Even with tentative deals, threats of slowdowns or strikes can disrupt ocean schedules, raise demurrage, and push costly rerouting toward West Coast or air freight.