Iran shadow-fleet enforcement escalation

New U.S. actions target Iranian petrochemical/oil networks—sanctioning entities and dozens of vessels—aiming to raise costs and risks for illicit shipping. This increases maritime compliance burdens, insurance/chartering uncertainty, and potential energy-price volatility affecting global input costs.

Border, visa and immigration digitisation

Home Affairs is expanding Electronic Travel Authorisation and pursuing a digital immigration overhaul using biometrics and AI to cut fraud and delays. If implemented well, it eases executive mobility and tourism; if not, it can create compliance bottlenecks and privacy litigation risk.

China-linked FDI rules re-evaluation

India is reviewing Press Note 3 and may add a de minimis threshold to speed small-border-country investments while retaining scrutiny for sensitive sectors. This could reopen selective China capital and supplier participation, affecting JV structuring, procurement costs, and compliance with security reviews.

Industrial overcapacity and price wars

Beijing is attempting to curb destructive competition, including in autos after January sales fell 19.5% y/y. Regulatory moves against below-cost pricing may stabilize margins but can trigger abrupt policy interventions, supplier renegotiations, and compliance investigations for both domestic and JV players.

US trade deal and tariffs

Vietnam is negotiating a “reciprocal” trade agreement with the US as its 2025 surplus hit about US$133.8bn, raising tariff and transshipment scrutiny. Outcomes will shape market access, rules of origin compliance, and investor decisions on Vietnam-based export platforms.

Carbon pricing and green finance

Cabinet approved carbon credits, allowances and RECs as TFEX derivatives reference assets, anticipating a Climate Change Act with mandatory caps and pricing. Firms face rising compliance expectations, new hedging tools, and stronger ESG disclosure demands across supply chains and financing.

Outbound investment screening expansion

U.S. controls on outbound capital and know-how—particularly toward China-linked advanced tech—are widening. Multinationals must map covered transactions, restructure joint ventures, and adjust funding routes to avoid penalties, potentially slowing cross-border R&D, venture investment, and supply-chain partnerships in dual-use sectors.

Oil exports via shadow fleet

Iran sustains crude exports through opaque “dark fleet” logistics, ship-to-ship transfers, and transponder manipulation, with China absorbing most volumes. Intensifying interdictions and seizures increase freight, insurance, and counterparty risk, threatening sudden disruption for traders, refiners, and shippers.

Tokenised gilts and DSS scaling

UK is piloting tokenised government bonds (DIGIT) using HSBC’s blockchain within the Digital Securities Sandbox, advancing on-chain settlement. This could reshape post-trade workflows, collateral mobility, and vendor selection for brokerages and investment platforms serving global clients.

Large infrastructure pipeline execution

Sheinbaum’s 2026–2030 plan targets roughly MXN 5.6–5.9 trillion (about $323B) across 1,500 projects, heavily weighted to energy, rail and roads, plus ports. If delivered, it improves logistics; execution, funding structure and procurement transparency remain key risks.

Security threats to supply chains

Cargo theft, extortion and increasingly sophisticated freight fraud raise insurance costs and force changes to routing, warehousing and carrier selection. High-value lanes near industrial corridors and border crossings are most exposed, making security standards, tracking and vetted 3PLs essential.

Tax and cost-base reset

Budget-linked measures raise employer National Insurance to 15% (from April 2025) and change pension salary-sacrifice NI from 2029/30, expected to raise £4.8bn initially. Combined with business-rates changes, this tightens margins and alters location, hiring, and pricing strategies.

AB Gümrük Birliği modernizasyonu

AB ve Türkiye, Gümrük Birliği’nin güncellenmesi ve uygulamanın iyileştirilmesi için çalışmayı yeniden canlandırıyor; EIB operasyonlarının kademeli dönüşü de gündemde. İlerleme, tarım-hizmetler-kamu alımları kapsaması, uyum maliyetleri ve AB pazarına erişim/menşe kurallarında değişim yaratabilir.

EU partnership deepens market access

Vietnam–EU ties were upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership, reinforcing the EVFTA-driven trade surge (two-way trade about US$73.8bn in 2025) and opening new cooperation on infrastructure, cybersecurity, and supply-chain security—supporting diversification away from US/China shocks.

EIB Lending Returns, Project Pipeline

The gradual resumption of European Investment Bank operations—reported with €200m earmarked for renewable energy—signals improving European financing access. This can catalyze infrastructure, green industrial upgrades and supplier capacity expansion, while raising compliance expectations on procurement, ESG and governance standards.

NATO demand for simulation

Finland’s expanding NATO role—hosting a Deployable CIS Module and accelerating defence readiness—supports sustained demand for secure training, synthetic environments and mission rehearsal. This can pull in foreign primes and SMEs, while tightening cybersecurity, export-control and procurement compliance expectations.

Geopolitical realignment of corridors

With European routes constrained, Russia deepens reliance on non-Western corridors and intermediaries—through the Caucasus, Central Asia, and maritime transshipment—to sustain trade. This raises reputational and compliance risk for firms operating in transit states, where due diligence on beneficial ownership and end-use is increasingly critical.

EEC land, zoning, logistics bottlenecks

Industrial land scarcity and outdated zoning in the EEC are delaying large projects; clearing public rights-of-way can take 7–8 years. Government efforts to “unlock” constraints and restart U-Tapao Airport City PPP may reshape site selection, capex timing, and logistics planning.

Mining law and licensing uncertainty

The Mineral Resources Development Amendment Bill has been criticized for ambiguity, while debates over BEE conditions, beneficiation and application timelines continue. Exploration spend fell to about R781m in 2024 (from R6.2bn in 2006), constraining future output and investor appetite.

Industrial relations and project risk

Rising union activity and expanded workplace rights are increasing operational complexity, notably in WA mining where right-of-entry requests rose ~400% in 12 months. Alongside corruption probes in construction unions, investors should price in schedule risk, bargaining costs, and governance diligence.

High-risk Black Sea shipping

Merchant shipping faces drone attacks, sea mines, GNSS jamming/spoofing, and sudden port stoppages under ISPS Level 3. Operational disruption and claims exposure rise for hull, cargo, delay, and crew welfare, complicating charterparty clauses, safe-port warranties, and routing decisions.

Border crossings and movement constraints

Rafah’s limited reopening and intensive screening regimes underscore persistent frictions in people movement and (indirectly) trade flows. Firms relying on regional staff mobility, humanitarian/contractor access, or cross-border services should plan for sudden closures, enhanced vetting and longer lead times.

Migration and visa integrity tightening

Australia is tightening migration settings and visa oversight, affecting talent pipelines. Skilled visa backlogs and stricter student ‘Genuine Student’ tests are increasing rejection and processing risk, while Home Affairs is considering tougher sponsor vetting after exploitation cases—raising HR compliance demands for employers.

Réglementation agricole et contestation

Mobilisations contre la loi Duplomb et débats sur la réintroduction de pesticides (acéthamipride). Impacts: incertitude sur intrants, normes ESG et traçabilité, risques réputationnels, volatilité des coûts agroalimentaires et tensions sur accords commerciaux (ex. Mercosur).

Data protection enforcement and cyber risk

CNIL’s €5m fine over the France Travail breach (36.8m affected) highlights tougher enforcement expectations. Companies face increased scrutiny on IAM, MFA, vendor access, and breach response, impacting cloud architecture, outsourcing models, and regulatory exposure.

China-tech decoupling feedback loop

U.S. controls and tariffs are accelerating reciprocal Chinese policies to reduce reliance on U.S. chips and financial exposure. This dynamic increases regulatory fragmentation, raises substitution risk for U.S. technology vendors, and forces global firms to design products, data flows, and financing for bifurcated regimes.

Oil pricing and OPEC+ discipline

Saudi Aramco’s repeated OSP cuts for Asia, amid Russian discounts and global surplus concerns, signal tougher competition and market-share defense. Energy-intensive industries should plan for higher price volatility, changing refining margins, and potential policy-driven output adjustments within OPEC+.

Fiscal expansion and policy credibility

President Prabowo’s growth agenda and large social spending (including a reported US$20bn meals program) pushed the 2025 deficit to about 2.92% of GDP, near the 3% legal cap. Moody’s shifted outlook negative, heightening sovereign, FX, and refinancing risks.

Digitalização financeira e Pix corporativo

A expansão do Pix e integrações com plataformas de pagamento e logística aceleram liquidação e reduzem fricção no varejo e no B2B, melhorando capital de giro. Ao mesmo tempo, cresce a exigência de controles antifraude, KYC e integração bancária para operações internacionais.

LNG buildout and Asian markets

Canadian LNG export capacity is advancing through projects such as LNG Canada and Cedar LNG, with long-term supply contracts emerging. This supports upstream and midstream investment, but depends on regulatory certainty, Indigenous agreements, and global LNG pricing.

Industrial digital twins for energy

Finland’s energy-transition projects and grid investments are increasing uptake of simulation for power systems, heating networks and decarbonization planning. This supports consulting and software exports, but also elevates requirements for data quality, model validation, and regulatory-aligned reporting.

China trade ties and coercion

China remains Australia’s dominant trading partner, but flashpoints—such as Beijing’s warnings over the Chinese-held Darwin Port lease and prior export controls on inputs like gallium—keep coercion risk elevated, complicating contract certainty, market access, and contingency planning for exporters and import-dependent firms.

AI Basic Act compliance duties

South Korea’s AI Basic Act introduces requirements for transparency and labeling of AI-generated content, plus human oversight for high-impact uses in health, transport and finance. Foreign providers with large user bases may need local presence, raising compliance and operating overhead.

FX stabilization under IMF program

Record reserves (about $52.6bn) and falling inflation support a more stable pound and prospective rate cuts, anchored by IMF reviews and disbursements. However, policy slippage could revive parallel-market pressures, affecting pricing, profit repatriation, and import financing.

Energy grid strikes, blackout risk

Russia’s intensified strikes on power plants, pipelines and cables have produced recurring outages and higher industrial downtime. The NBU estimates a 6% electricity deficit in 2026, shaving ~0.4pp off growth and raising operating costs, logistics disruption and force-majeure risk.

New trade deals and friend-shoring

US is using reciprocal trade agreements to rewire supply chains toward strategic partners. The US–Taiwan deal caps many tariffs at 15%, links chip treatment to US investment, and includes large procurement and investment pledges, influencing regional manufacturing footprints and sourcing decisions.