Foreign Investment Remains Resilient

France saw an 11% rise in foreign investment decisions in 2025, supporting nearly 48,000 jobs. Key sectors include automotive, AI, and renewables. However, persistent political instability and high public debt could affect future attractiveness and project execution.

Netzausbau, Speicher, Genehmigungen

Beschleunigter Ausbau von Übertragungsnetzen und Flexibilitätslösungen wird zentral. Der Bund steigt bei Tennet mit 25,1% ein (bis zu 7,6 Mrd. €). Gleichzeitig bremsen knappe Netzanschlüsse, lange Verfahren und Regelwerkslücken Investitionen in Speicher, Erneuerbare und neue Industrieansiedlungen.

Food import inspections disrupt logistics

A new food-safety regime (Decree 46) abruptly expanded inspection and certification requirements, stranding 700+ consignments (about 300,000 tonnes) and leaving 1,800+ containers stuck at Cat Lai port. Compliance uncertainty can delay inputs and raise inventory buffers.

Long-term LNG security push

Utilities are locking in fuel amid rising power demand from data centers and AI. QatarEnergy signed a 27‑year deal to supply JERA about 3 mtpa from 2028; Mitsui is nearing an equity stake in North Field South (16 mtpa, ~$17.5bn). Destination clauses affect flexibility.

Critical minerals industrial policy shift

Canberra is accelerating strategic-minerals policy via a A$1.2bn reserve, production tax incentives and project finance, amid allied price-floor talks. Heightened FIRB scrutiny of Chinese stakes and governance disputes increase compliance risk but expand opportunities for allied offtakes and processing investment.

Robust Foreign Investment Inflows

Brazil attracted record foreign direct investment in 2025, totaling €71.9 billion (3.41% of GDP), driven by strong stock market performance and diversified investor interest. Sustained inflows reinforce Brazil’s position as a key emerging market destination for global capital.

Critical Minerals And Semiconductor Supply Chains

Vietnam is deepening partnerships with the EU and other global actors to develop its rare earths, tungsten, and semiconductor sectors. These efforts aim to diversify supply chains, reduce dependence on China, and position Vietnam as a key node in global technology manufacturing.

Critical minerals export leverage

China’s dominance in rare earths and magnet refining (about 70% mining, ~90% processing) increases vulnerability to licensing delays or curbs. US-led “critical minerals bloc” initiatives may accelerate decoupling, raising compliance, sourcing, and price-volatility risks.

Tariff activism and reciprocity rates

Tariffs are being used as a standing policy lever—e.g., a reciprocal 18% rate applied to Indian-origin goods under executive authority—raising import costs, increasing pricing volatility, and incentivizing firms to re-route sourcing, renegotiate contracts, and localize production.

Sanctions enforcement and secondary risk

U.S. sanctions on Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and related maritime “shadow” networks are increasingly enforced with supply-chain due diligence expectations. Counterparties, insurers, shippers, and banks face heightened secondary exposure, trade finance frictions, and cargo-routing constraints for energy and dual-use goods.

Port and rail congestion capacity limits

Chronic congestion risks at the Port of Vancouver and inland rail corridors continue to threaten inventory reliability and ocean freight dwell times. Capacity expansions (e.g., terminal upgrades and Roberts Bank proposals) are slow, so importers should diversify gateways and build buffer stock.

Green Transition and Cybersecurity Risks

Rapid expansion of decentralized, internet-connected renewable energy infrastructure introduces significant cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Securing the grid now requires a unified public-private security framework to mitigate risks of data manipulation and widespread outages.

Saudization and workforce constraints

Saudi Arabia is tightening localization rules, restricting expatriates from certain senior and commercial roles and raising Saudization ratios in sales/marketing. Multinationals must redesign org charts, compensation, and compliance processes, increasing operating costs and talent-transition risk.

Energy policy boosts LNG exports

A shift toward faster permitting and “regular order” approvals for LNG terminals and non-FTA exports signals higher medium-term US gas supply to Europe and Asia. This supports long-term contracting but can raise domestic price volatility and regulatory swings for energy-intensive industries.

Investment Climate and SME Funding Gap

Renewed investor confidence is evident, with FDI pipelines growing, especially in renewables and tech. However, a R350 billion SME funding gap persists, as stricter governance and financial controls limit access to capital for smaller, informal businesses.

Syria Policy and Regional Security Risks

Turkey’s evolving Syria strategy, focused on eliminating YPG/PKK influence and supporting Syrian state control, aims to stabilize its southern border. While this may improve regional security and trade, ongoing tensions and humanitarian concerns pose risks for cross-border operations and investor confidence.

Port and logistics mega-projects

Brazil is accelerating port and access upgrades, exemplified by the Santos–Guarujá immersed tunnel PPP (R$7.8bn capex; 30-year concession). Better access can reduce dwell times, but construction, concession terms and local stakeholder risks affect supply-chain resilience.

Energia, capacidade e risco climático

A Aneel aprovou leilões de reserva de capacidade em março, com preço-teto de até R$ 1,6 milhão/MW-ano e 368 projetos cadastrados. O mix renovável exige reforço de potência firme e transmissão; eventos climáticos aumentam riscos de custo e continuidade operacional.

ESG and Sustainability Regulatory Momentum

Taiwanese financial and industrial sectors are accelerating ESG adoption, with new SBTi-aligned targets, green energy integration, and supply chain decarbonization. Firms face growing expectations for emissions reduction, sustainable finance, and supply chain transparency.

Global trade remedies against overcapacity

Rising anti-dumping and safeguard actions targeting China-made steel and other industrial goods reflect persistent overcapacity and subsidization concerns. More tariffs, quotas, and investigations increase landed costs, disrupt procurement, and heighten retaliation risk across unrelated sectors, including commodities.

Energy tariffs and circular debt

Power-sector reforms, including proposed tariff revisions and circular-debt containment, remain central to macro stabilization. Tariff resets can lift inflation but may reduce industrial cross-subsidies. For investors, the key risks are energy cost predictability, outages, and contract enforcement.

Foreign Investment Scrutiny in Strategic Sectors

Australian authorities have intensified scrutiny of foreign—especially Chinese—investment in critical minerals and infrastructure. Recent court actions and forced divestments signal a tougher regulatory stance, affecting deal structures, ownership risks, and market access for international investors.

Infrastructure Expansion and Regional Hub Ambitions

Massive investments in transport, ports, and logistics are positioning Egypt as a regional trade and manufacturing hub. Projects like the Suez Canal Economic Zone and logistics corridors aim to enhance supply chain resilience and attract multinational manufacturers seeking regional access.

US–Indonesia tariff deal pending

The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade is reportedly 90% legally drafted, reducing threatened US duties on Indonesian exports from 32% to 19%, while Indonesia would eliminate tariffs on most US imports. Digital-trade and sanctions-alignment clauses could reshape compliance and market-access strategies.

Defense budget politics and capability delivery

Parliamentary standoffs over a roughly US$40bn defense plan and proposed cuts create uncertainty around procurement timelines, mobilization readiness, and resilience investments. Heightened political risk can affect ratings, contractor pipelines, and business continuity planning for critical suppliers.

Hormuz chokepoint maritime insecurity

Heightened US-Iran confrontation is already depressing Gulf shipping activity and increasing war-risk premiums. Iran threatens disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waterways; even limited incidents can spike freight rates, insurance, and delivery times for energy and container cargo.

Energy Transition and Power Reliability

South Africa’s energy sector is undergoing a complex transition, with regulatory uncertainty slowing offshore oil and gas exploration and the rollout of renewables. Power supply remains fragile, impacting industrial output, investment planning, and long-term business operations.

Sanctions Policy Divergence

The UK is increasingly diverging from EU sanctions policy, developing its own robust framework targeting Russia, China, and other actors. This creates compliance challenges for multinationals and impacts global supply chains and financial flows.

Monetary policy amid trade uncertainty

With inflation around 2.4% and the policy rate near 2.25%, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates while tariff uncertainty clouds growth and hiring. Financing costs may stay elevated; firms should stress-test cash flows against demand shocks and FX volatility.

Regulatory Environment Grows More Complex

The US is implementing significant regulatory changes, including expanded compliance requirements and sector-specific rules. Businesses face increased costs and operational complexity, particularly in finance, technology, and manufacturing, affecting market entry and ongoing operations.

Energy Sector Reform and Pemex Strategy

Mexico is investing $323 billion in energy and infrastructure through 2030, with Pemex targeting 1.8 million barrels daily and expanding natural gas. Reforms focus on debt reduction, domestic refining, and attracting private capital, but Pemex’s financial health remains a concern.

Won volatility and FX backstops

Authorities issued $3bn in FX stabilization bonds as reserves fell to about $425.9bn and equity outflows pressured KRW. Elevated USD/KRW volatility affects import costs, hedging budgets, and repatriation strategies, especially for commodity buyers and dollar-funded projects.

TCMB makroihtiyati sıkılaştırma

Merkez Bankası, yabancı para kredilerde 8 haftalık büyüme sınırını %1’den %0,5’e indirdi; kısa vadeli TL dış fonlamada zorunlu karşılıkları artırdı. Finansmana erişim, ticaret kredileri, nakit yönetimi ve yatırım fizibilitesi daha hassas hale geliyor.

Trade facilitation and digital licensing

Authorities aim to cut investment licensing from ~24 months to under 90 days via a unified digital platform, while reducing customs clearance from 16 days to five (target two) and moving ports to 7-day operations. Execution quality will determine actual savings.

Fiscal Stabilization and Policy Reform

South Africa is nearing a fiscal turning point, with debt-to-GDP stabilizing and primary surpluses returning. Improved fiscal credibility has strengthened the rand and bonds, but sustaining reforms and managing coalition politics remain critical for long-term investor confidence.

EU CEPA nearing completion

IEU‑CEPA negotiations have entered legal scrubbing, with completion targeted May 2026 and implementation aimed for January 2027. Indonesia expects up to 98% tariff-line elimination (around 90% duty‑free both ways), boosting EU-linked manufacturing, services, and investment planning.