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Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 08, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

Donald Trump's re-election has sent shockwaves across the globe, with uncertainty and volatility permeating the political and economic landscape. Businesses and investors are grappling with the implications of a Trump presidency, particularly in international relations, trade, and security. As the world adjusts to this new reality, allies and rivals alike are re-evaluating their strategies and alliances, creating a complex and dynamic environment for global businesses.

Trump's Return and the Global Order

The re-election of Donald Trump as the US President has sent shockwaves across the globe, signalling a shift in the global order and international relations. Trump's unpredictability and protectionist tendencies have heightened uncertainty, particularly in trade and security matters. Businesses and investors must navigate this complex landscape, adapting their strategies to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities.

The Ukraine-Russia Conflict and US Support

The Ukraine-Russia conflict is at a critical juncture with Trump's re-election. US support for Ukraine is in question, as Trump has expressed doubts about continued commitment. This uncertainty complicates Ukraine's position in the conflict and raises questions about the future of US-Ukraine relations. Businesses and investors with interests in the region must closely monitor developments, assessing the potential impact on their operations and strategic plans.

Trade Wars and Tariffs

Trump's re-election has heightened the prospect of trade wars, particularly with China, but also potentially impacting other countries like Japan and Europe. Tariffs and trade restrictions are likely to increase, disrupting global supply chains and affecting businesses and consumers worldwide. Companies with <co: 0,1,2,


Further Reading:

"Trump's victory raises prospect of trade war impacting Japan, other U.S. allies." - Japan Today

Breakup of Germany’s coalition government ushers in new phase of class struggle - WSWS

Economic upheaval and political opportunity – what Trump’s return could mean for China - CNN

FOCUS: Trump's victory portends trade war impacting Japan, other U.S. allies - Kyodo News Plus

Fear, joy and calls for a strong Europe: France reacts to Trump win - VOA Asia

Geopolitical Climate - Chapter Three - The Visionaries - Economic Analysis - Strategy - United Kingdom - Mondaq News Alerts

SLAF aviation contingent for UN peacekeeping mission in Central African Republic - The Island.lk

The shocking US election result will create a new world order – and launch a fresh wave of Trump wannabes - The Guardian

Trump victory gives Modi chance to reset India’s image with West - Fortune

Ukraine has the most to lose as rivals and allies prepare for Trump's return - Sky News

With Trump election win, China braces for higher US tensions - DW (English)

With Trump's White House win, the clock is ticking on over $6 billion in Ukraine aid - Business Insider

Themes around the World:

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Infrastructure and Regulatory Bottlenecks

Industrial development faces delays due to spatial planning (RTRW) and infrastructure issues, including electricity and logistics. Resolving these bottlenecks is critical for accelerating foreign investment and improving supply chain efficiency in key sectors.

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Supply Chain Disruptions

Sanctions and export controls disrupt supply chains involving Russian raw materials and manufactured goods. Companies face delays, increased costs, and the need to identify alternative suppliers. This instability affects industries from automotive to technology, compelling businesses to diversify sourcing strategies.

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USMCA Uncertainty and Tariff Risks

Ongoing US-Canada trade tensions, including Supreme Court decisions and USMCA renegotiations, create volatility for Canadian exporters. Tariff threats on key sectors like furniture and lumber impact supply chains, investment planning, and cross-border business operations.

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Migration and Labor Market Effects

The Venezuelan diaspora in the US shapes labor market dynamics and consumer demographics. Migration trends influence workforce availability and create new market opportunities, affecting business strategies in sectors linked to Venezuela.

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Supply Chain Disruptions from Global Events

Global disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions have exposed vulnerabilities in Canada's supply chains, prompting firms to diversify sourcing and invest in domestic manufacturing capabilities to mitigate risks.

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Labor Market and Wage Trends

Rising wages and labor reforms aimed at improving worker rights impact manufacturing costs and competitiveness. Enhanced labor protections under USMCA also influence multinational corporations' investment strategies and supply chain decisions.

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Investment Screening And Competition

Reforms in UK merger control and national security investment screening are intensifying, with stricter scrutiny of foreign investments and competition policy. This creates new compliance demands and could slow cross-border deals, affecting strategic investment planning.

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Labor Market and Immigration Policies

Changes in immigration policies and labor market conditions affect workforce availability, particularly in sectors like agriculture, construction, and technology. Skilled labor shortages could hinder project execution and increase operational costs for businesses.

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Labor Market and Regulatory Evolution

Mexico’s labor market is adapting to increased demand from nearshoring and supply chain shifts, but regulatory changes, workforce development, and compliance remain critical. Evolving labor standards and business regulations will shape operational costs and investment strategies.

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Trade Diversification Efforts

Iran is actively seeking to diversify its trade partners beyond traditional Western markets, focusing on Asia and regional neighbors. This shift opens new opportunities but also requires navigating complex regional trade agreements and varying regulatory environments.

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Semiconductor Supercycle Drives Growth

South Korea’s record $709.7 billion exports in 2025 were powered by a 22% surge in semiconductor shipments, especially for AI and data centers. This cycle is fueling profits, investment, and supply chain expansion, but exposes Korea to cyclical risks if demand weakens.

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AI and Technology Sector Growth

Canadian technology firms, especially in AI, are experiencing rapid growth, attracting global investment and expanding internationally. The sector’s dynamism is reshaping Canada’s innovation landscape, driving new business models, and influencing cross-border trade and investment flows.

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Infrastructure Development Initiatives

Significant investments in infrastructure, including ports, roads, and industrial zones, are underway to enhance Indonesia's logistics capabilities. Improved infrastructure facilitates smoother trade flows and attracts foreign direct investment, though construction delays and regulatory hurdles remain challenges for timely project completion.

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Political Risks Over Government Stability

Threats of government censure over trade policy, especially Mercosur, highlight political volatility. This instability could affect regulatory predictability, investment climate, and long-term business planning for international companies in France.

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Political Instability and Realignment

The UK faces heightened political turbulence, with Labour’s leadership under pressure and rising influence from Reform UK and the Conservatives. This instability could impact trade, regulatory certainty, and investor confidence, especially ahead of pivotal local elections in May 2026.

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Demographic Shifts and Talent Gaps

With the world’s lowest birth rate and a rapidly aging population, South Korea faces acute talent shortages. Consulting firms are increasingly advising on workforce planning, migration, and automation to address labor gaps affecting trade and operational continuity.

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Infrastructure and Logistics Bottlenecks

Despite reforms, South Africa’s infrastructure—particularly in electricity, rail, and ports—remains a constraint. Delays in logistics and persistent service failures disrupt supply chains, increase costs, and erode competitiveness, challenging companies reliant on efficient movement of goods.

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Regulatory and Governance Reforms

Ongoing reforms aimed at improving transparency and reducing corruption impact the business environment. While reforms can enhance investor confidence, inconsistent implementation creates uncertainty affecting investment strategies and operational planning.

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Trade Agreements and Regional Integration

Egypt's participation in trade agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and COMESA enhances market access. These agreements influence export strategies and supply chain diversification for businesses operating in Egypt.

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Wartime Economy Spurs Tax Hikes

Facing stagnant GDP growth (0.1%) and falling industrial output, Russia has raised consumption taxes and introduced new levies on electronics to offset shrinking energy income. These measures increase costs for businesses and consumers, impacting investment strategies.

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Infrastructure Investment Accelerates Growth

Major investments in transport, energy, and digital infrastructure are underway to support economic expansion and competitiveness. These projects present opportunities for foreign investors but require careful navigation of regulatory, environmental, and local stakeholder considerations.

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Economic Growth and Market Potential

India's robust GDP growth and expanding middle class present significant opportunities for international investors and businesses. The country's large consumer base and increasing urbanization drive demand across sectors, enhancing market attractiveness and encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI). This growth underpins long-term trade and investment strategies.

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Renewable Energy Expansion and Green Finance

Egypt signed $1.8 billion in renewable energy deals, including Africa’s largest solar project and battery storage facilities. Supported by international banks, these initiatives advance Egypt’s 2030 clean energy targets, offering opportunities for green investment and supply chain localization.

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Digital Transformation and Innovation Ecosystem

Turkey is advancing in digital infrastructure and innovation, fostering startups and technology adoption. This trend offers opportunities for businesses to leverage digital tools for efficiency and market expansion but also demands adaptation to evolving cybersecurity and data regulations.

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Regulatory Reforms and Investment Climate

The government is pursuing regulatory reforms to attract foreign and domestic investment, including tax incentives and streamlined credit for SMEs. However, inconsistent policies, high production costs, and compliance challenges remain barriers to sustained investment and supply chain integration.

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Environmental and Sustainability Pressures

Increasing focus on environmental regulations and sustainability practices affects manufacturing and export sectors. Compliance with global ESG standards is becoming critical for maintaining market access and corporate reputation in international markets.

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Foreign Investment Regulations

Canada's tightening of foreign investment rules aims to protect strategic sectors, including technology and critical infrastructure. Enhanced scrutiny and approval processes may delay transactions and increase compliance costs. Investors must assess regulatory environments carefully to align with national security considerations.

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Supply Chain Resilience and Infrastructure

Border instability, logistics costs at 15–16% of GDP, and reliance on imported components expose Thailand’s supply chains to disruption. Calls for infrastructure upgrades, automation, and regional energy cooperation are central to enhancing resilience and lowering operational risks.

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Labor Cost Pressures in Urban Centers

Jakarta faces rising labor unrest over minimum wage levels, with demands to match the high cost of living. Wage disputes and protests may impact business operations, especially in technology, services, and international trade sectors concentrated in the capital.

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Environmental Policies and Sustainability Initiatives

Growing emphasis on environmental regulations and sustainability affects industries such as manufacturing and agriculture. Compliance with environmental standards is increasingly important for international trade and corporate social responsibility commitments.

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Currency Volatility

The South African Rand experiences significant volatility influenced by domestic political developments and global market trends. Currency fluctuations affect profitability for exporters and importers, complicating financial planning and investment decisions.

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Defense Technology as Economic Anchor

Israel’s defense-tech sector has become a key diplomatic and economic asset, attracting major foreign investment and strategic partnerships, especially from Europe. This shift bolsters Israel’s global influence but also ties its economic resilience to the volatile defense sector.

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Regulatory Reforms and Ease of Doing Business

Recent government initiatives to streamline regulations and improve the ease of doing business have enhanced India's attractiveness for foreign direct investment. Simplified tax regimes and digitalization efforts reduce operational complexities for multinational corporations.

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Labour Market Pressures and Unemployment

Unemployment remains elevated at 31.9%, with major retrenchments in manufacturing and automotive sectors. US tariffs and company closures threaten further job losses in 2026, intensifying social pressures and impacting consumer demand, with implications for both local and international businesses.

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Energy Transition Faces Supply Constraints

France’s accelerated shift to electrification and decarbonization is challenged by hardware shortages, grid bottlenecks, and mineral dependencies. Energy supply tensions and infrastructure delays threaten industrial competitiveness and reliability for international operations.

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Currency and Financial Market Volatility

Fluctuations in the Thai baht and financial markets affect cost structures, profit margins, and investment returns. Exchange rate volatility necessitates robust risk management strategies for international businesses operating in Thailand.