AI chip export “rationing”

Washington is considering a new AI‑chip export framework that ties large shipments (100,000–200,000+ chips) to government assurances, monitoring, and even site visits, potentially swapping controls for foreign investment in US data centers. Allies’ procurement timelines and compliance burdens would rise.

Power sector reforms and circular debt

IMF scrutiny of electricity tariffs, distribution-company losses, and circular-debt containment keeps regulatory change frequent. Tariff adjustments and fixed-charge revisions can alter industrial cost structures quickly, affect offtake agreements, and create payment-chain risk for suppliers to utilities and SOEs.

Middle East shipping disrupts inputs

Escalating Gulf/Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens sulphur supplies; Indonesia imports ~75% from the Middle East for HPAL sulphuric acid. Stockpiles reportedly cover 1–2 months; prices near $500/ton rose 10–15%, risking near-term production curtailments and contract disruptions.

Escalating strikes on infrastructure

Russia’s intensified drone and missile campaign is repeatedly hitting energy, rail, and port assets, triggering blackouts, heating failures, and logistics disruptions. Businesses face higher downtime risk, added protection costs, and volatile delivery schedules, especially for exporters reliant on fixed corridors.

Middle East sulfur supply shock

HPAL nickel plants import ~75% of sulfur from the Middle East; Hormuz disruptions risk shortages within 1–2 months of stocks. Sulfur near US$500/ton (+10–15%) raises battery-material costs; alternative sourcing may face logistics constraints and sanctions exposure.

Tax administration and policy uncertainty

Revenue underperformance (Rs428bn shortfall in eight months) is pushing target revisions and stronger enforcement. Expect more audits, withholding, digitalisation and tariff rationalisation. Compliance burdens, customs clearance times and the predictability of effective tax rates remain key concerns.

Sanctions compliance and banking normalization

The U.S. deferred-prosecution deal to end the Halkbank Iran-sanctions case lowers tail risk, but reinforces stricter AML/sanctions controls, monitoring and correspondent-banking scrutiny. Firms should expect tougher KYC, payment screening and documentation requirements for sensitive counterparties and routes.

EU unity crisis weakens predictability

EU member states struggled to agree on a joint response, with national divergences on legality and support for Washington. For investors, this raises uncertainty over EU regulatory reactions, emergency trade measures, and coordinated maritime-security posture affecting operations.

Black Sea port and shipping risk

Odesa-region ports remain operational but exposed to drone strikes, including attacks near Chornomorsk and port facilities. Marine insurance premia, security procedures, and voyage planning remain elevated, affecting grain, metals, and container flows and complicating just-in-time supply chains.

Defence procurement shifts to IP

Draft Defence Acquisition Procedure 2026 reweights “L1” bidding with credits for indigenous design and IP, aiming for “Owned by India” outcomes and 30–50% faster timelines. Foreign OEMs face stricter localisation, source-code/data expectations, and selective foreign-route clearances affecting partnerships and offsets.

Sanctions divergence raises compliance risk

Temporary US easing on Russian oil contrasts with unchanged UK/EU restrictions, creating a ‘two-tier’ sanctions environment. Banks, traders and insurers face higher screening, documentation and legal-risk burdens, especially for energy, shipping and commodity-finance transactions routed through London.

Water security and municipal service risk

Water shortages and weak municipal maintenance disrupt operations in major metros and industrial zones. National plans include >R156bn for water/sanitation and a new National Water Resources Infrastructure Agency from 2026, but near-term outages and leak losses persist.

IMF Programme and Fiscal Tightening

Delayed IMF staff-level agreement keeps a $1bn tranche uncertain, raising rollover and reserve risks. Likely spending cuts, tax hikes and governance conditions will affect demand, pricing, import capacity and investor confidence, influencing deal timing and payment risk.

Energia e sanções: diesel russo

O Brasil elevou importações de derivados russos para US$474,8 milhões até fevereiro, 1,5x a/a, com 36,4% de participação—maior fornecedor. Isso reduz custos no curto prazo, mas aumenta exposição a risco reputacional, compliance, e possíveis medidas secundárias.

Revisión T-MEC y aranceles 232

La revisión 2026 del T‑MEC arranca con conversaciones México‑EE.UU. (16 marzo) y señales de mayor presión estadounidense en reglas de origen, transbordo y cumplimiento. Persisten aranceles: 25% camiones, 50% acero/aluminio/cobre, 17% tomate; elevan incertidumbre comercial.

Alliance-driven defence industrial surge

AUKUS and US pressure to lift defence spending toward 3.5% of GDP (from ~2.0%) signal rising procurement, compliance, and sovereign-capability requirements. Budget reallocation, supply constraints, and readiness gaps (air/missile defence, drones) affect defence suppliers and critical infrastructure operators.

Port, rail and “dry canal” logistics shifts

Expanding gateways are reshaping routing options. Lázaro Cárdenas is adding capacity (APM Terminals Phase III: 6.2bn pesos/US$350m) while the Isthmus of Tehuantepec interoceanic corridor targets ~1.4m TEU/year and under‑6‑hour cross‑Mexico transfers, diversifying Panama Canal exposure.

Turbulences budgétaires et notation souveraine

Le déficit reste élevé et la dette augmente, tandis que Fitch maintient la note A+ mais pointe des contraintes politiques limitant l’assainissement. Risques de hausses d’impôts, coupes de dépenses et volatilité des taux, affectant financement, CAPEX et demande intérieure.

Energy security and price shock

Iran-related disruption risks and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty are lifting oil/LNG costs, freight surcharges and war-risk insurance. Thailand has moved to diversify crude/LNG (including US cargoes) and cap diesel, but input-cost volatility threatens margins, inflation and FX stability.

Energy Import Vulnerability Intensifies

Taiwan remains highly exposed to imported fuel shocks, with about one-third of LNG imports tied to Qatar and reserves covering roughly 12 to 14 days. Strait of Hormuz disruption raises power-cost, inflation, and business-continuity risks for manufacturers and data-intensive industries.

Ports and rail logistics fragility

Transnet’s operational constraints and debt (≈R144bn, ~R15bn annual interest) underpin unreliable rail/port throughput. Locomotive shortages, vandalism and >R30bn maintenance backlog constrain exports. Reforms and corridor upgrades are progressing, but disruption risk remains significant for bulk and containerised supply chains.

Energy revenue volatility and discounts

Urals trades at deep discounts to Brent despite global price swings, straining Russia’s budget and raising tax/regulatory unpredictability. Companies face unstable export pricing, shifting discount structures, and heightened counterparty risk in energy-linked trade and services.

Agriculture policy backlash and trade

An emergency agriculture bill aims to ease permitting (notably water storage), adjust environmental constraints, and tighten public-catering sourcing toward European products. Combined with farmer mobilisation against Mercosur and Brazilian meat, this raises trade-policy and food-supply uncertainty.

Renewables scale-up facing cost constraints

India is reassessing offshore wind tenders (1 GW) amid high steel costs and weak bidder appetite; floating solar remains ~700 MW commissioned despite large potential. Policy support, VGF and domestic manufacturing (ingots/wafers) will shape project bankability and clean-energy supply chains.

High energy costs, grid delays

Industrial electricity costs remain a competitiveness constraint as wind and grid build‑out lags targets; system-security measures cost about €3bn in 2024. Debates over cutting electricity tax and higher ETS II CO₂ pricing raise operating-cost and investment uncertainty.

Import surge narrows trade buffers

January trade surplus fell to $950m as imports rose 18.21% YoY, outpacing 3.39% export growth. Narrower external buffers increase sensitivity to commodity cycles, global risk-off moves, and fuel-price shocks—affecting hedging needs, working capital, and profit repatriation planning.

Automotive transition and competitiveness

Vehicle exports hit record volumes, but policy lag on new‑energy vehicles and US/EU trade frictions threaten future investment. Competition from Morocco and rising carbon and technology requirements in Europe could reshape supply chains, local content strategies, and capex decisions for OEMs and suppliers.

Mining Surge And Critical Minerals

Vision 2030 is positioning mining as a third economic pillar, citing $2.5tn mineral wealth and targeting SR240bn ($63bn) GDP contribution by 2030. Reforms cut mining tax to 20% from 45%, expanded licensing, and boosted exploration budgets to $146m in 2025—opportunities in processing and services.

Energy costs and network charges

Ofgem’s price cap falls 7% to £1,641 from 1 April 2026 after shifting 75% of Renewables Obligation costs to taxation and ending ECO. However, higher grid/network charges offset savings, keeping energy input costs volatile for energy‑intensive operations and sites.

Rare-earth supply diversification drive

Japan is negotiating with India to explore hard‑rock rare earth deposits (India cites 1.29m tons REO identified) to reduce China dependence for magnet materials. This may create new offtake, technology-transfer, and processing investments—plus transition frictions.

Remittances underpin external resilience

Worker remittances remain a major stabiliser: $3.46bn in Jan 2026 (+15.4% YoY) and $23.2bn in 7MFY26 (+11.3%). Strong inflows support consumption and FX buffers, but dependence on Gulf/UK corridors adds geopolitical and labour-market exposure.

Germany–China ties, rising scrutiny

Germany is deepening commercial engagement with China—new German FDI reportedly ~€7bn in 2025—alongside growing strategic concerns. Firms face a balancing act: access to China’s innovation ecosystem versus elevated geopolitical, compliance, export-control, and potential investment-screening risks.

Gaza ceasefire and access

Gaza ceasefire fragility and evolving border rules affect regional stability, humanitarian logistics, and reputational exposure. Recent Cairo talks involving a US “Board of Peace” and Hamas coincided with Israel planning to reopen Rafah pedestrian crossing, highlighting volatile operating conditions for contractors.

Critical minerals diversification push

China’s dual-use export controls affecting Japanese entities are accelerating diversification. Japan is in talks with India to develop Rajasthan hard-rock rare earths (1.29m tonnes REO identified) for magnet supply, changing sourcing strategies for EVs, electronics, and defense supply chains.

Yen volatility and rate hikes

Authorities signal vigilance over yen weakness amid BOJ tightening. Policy-rate rises and FX swings affect import costs, pricing, and hedging. Tokyo core inflation eased to 1.8% y/y while underlying remained ~2.5%, keeping uncertainty over further hikes and growth.

Domestic gas pricing and allocation

Industri mendorong batas harga LNG domestik ≤US$9/MMBtu dan pembatasan substitusi regasifikasi (≤15% alokasi PJBG) agar daya saing manufaktur terjaga. Ketidakpastian harga/volume gas memengaruhi keputusan investasi pabrik, kontrak energi, serta risiko biaya untuk operasi intensif energi.