Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 06, 2024
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The 2024 US presidential election has resulted in a victory for Donald Trump, with the Republican Party also taking control of the Senate. This outcome is expected to have a significant impact on the global economy, with stocks rising and the US dollar surging in anticipation of potential tax cuts, tariffs, and rising inflation. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rafael is approaching the Cayman Islands and Cuba, potentially causing significant damage. In other news, the US has written off over $1 billion of Somalia's debt, and the Iraqi government has approved compensation plans for oil produced in the Kurdistan Region, potentially easing a long-running oil dispute. Lastly, Mexico's National Guard has killed two Colombians and wounded four on a migrant smuggling route near the US border, highlighting the ongoing challenges of migration and border security.
The US Election and its Impact on the Global Economy
The 2024 US presidential election has resulted in a victory for Donald Trump, with the Republican Party also taking control of the Senate. This outcome is expected to have a significant impact on the global economy, with stocks rising and the US dollar surging in anticipation of potential tax cuts, tariffs, and rising inflation. Bitcoin has also reached a record high, as traders bet on potential tax cuts, tariffs, and rising inflation under Trump. Experts predict a turbulent day for financial markets as a response to global uncertainty and Trump's potential plans for the economy. Trump's global trade policies, particularly his pledge to dramatically increase trade tariffs, especially on China, are causing particular concern in Asia. His more isolationist stance on foreign policy also raises questions about his willingness to defend Taiwan against potential aggression from China.
Tropical Storm Rafael and its Impact on the Caribbean
Tropical Storm Rafael is approaching the Cayman Islands and Cuba, potentially causing significant damage. The Toronto Star reports that the storm is spinning towards the Cayman Islands and Cuba is preparing for a hurricane hit. The Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal adds that the storm has passed Jamaica and is heading towards Cuba, with the potential for significant damage. This event highlights the vulnerability of the Caribbean region to tropical storms and hurricanes, and the potential for significant economic and humanitarian impacts.
North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions and its Impact on Global Security
North Korea has told the UN that it is speeding up its nuclear weapons development, with the launch of a new ICBM and the deployment of troops to support Russia in Ukraine. This development has raised concerns among the international community, with the US accusing Russia and China of protecting North Korea and criticizing their failure to prevent North Korea's nuclear ambitions. The UN Security Council has met to discuss North Korea's nuclear program, but North Korea has doubled down on its plans, refusing to engage in nonproliferation efforts. This situation highlights the growing tensions between North Korea and the international community, and the potential for further escalation and instability in the region.
The Ukraine War and its Impact on Global Geopolitics
The Ukraine war continues to be a major geopolitical issue, with Russia engaging in a war of attrition and analysts suggesting that Putin is not in a hurry to end the conflict, regardless of the outcome of the US election. Russia has been ratcheting up pressure on Ukraine, with larger troop numbers and artillery supplies, and making incremental but important gains on the front lines. North Korean troops fighting for Russia have come under Ukrainian fire, adding to Ukraine's worsening situation on the battlefield. Russian advances have accelerated, with battlefield gains of up to 9 kilometers in some parts of Donetsk. This situation highlights the ongoing challenges for Ukraine and its allies, and the potential for further escalation and instability in the region.
Further Reading:
BREAKING: Trump wins US 2024 presidential election, foreign leaders congratulate - Kyiv Independent
Iraqi government approves compensation plans for oil produced in Kurdistan Region - The National
North Korean troops fighting with Russia are hit by Ukraine shells, official says - The Independent
Putin is in no hurry to end the Ukraine war, no matter who wins the US election - Business Insider
Stocks rise as investors await US presidential result - BBC.com
Storm in the Caribbean is on a track to likely hit Cuba as a hurricane - Toronto Star
Themes around the World:
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Diversification
US tariffs (currently 19%) and global trade tensions are prompting Thailand to diversify export markets beyond the US and China. Efforts to expand FTAs, streamline certification, and access India and the Middle East are central to trade resilience and supply chain adaptation.
Critical Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
The UK’s over-reliance on China for clean energy components and critical minerals exposes supply chains to geopolitical shocks. Disruptions could threaten up to 90,000 jobs and delay renewable energy projects, prompting calls for domestic production and diversified international partnerships.
Russia-China Trade Faces Headwinds
Bilateral trade between Russia and China dropped 6.5% in 2025, ending a five-year growth streak. Lower oil prices, reduced Chinese demand, and Russian import tariffs on cars contributed. This signals increased vulnerability to commodity price swings and policy shifts for cross-border ventures.
Global Trade Diversification Strategies
Amid US-EU tensions, the UK and EU are accelerating trade talks with partners like China, India, and Mercosur. Diversifying trade relationships is seen as essential to mitigating risks from US protectionism and ensuring long-term resilience in UK supply chains and export markets.
Competitive Tensions and Strategic Alliances
Major French automakers, including Renault and Stellantis, are expanding their electrified portfolios but show reluctance to fully align on joint battery ventures. This rivalry shapes the pace of innovation, localization of supply chains, and the scope for international partnerships.
Energy Transition And Renewables Expansion
Khanh Hoa and other provinces are advancing large-scale renewable energy projects, including wind, solar, and nuclear. National policies support the shift to green energy, grid stability, and green hydrogen, enhancing Vietnam’s energy security and export potential in the clean tech sector.
Energy Transition and Supply Chain Realignment
Finland’s rapid shift away from Russian energy, combined with investments in renewables and thermal storage, is restructuring industrial supply chains. While this enhances energy security and sustainability, it also exposes businesses to volatility in energy prices and regulatory changes.
Volatile Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook
Despite moderating inflation, robust employment and wage growth have increased expectations of Reserve Bank rate hikes in 2026. This environment creates uncertainty for borrowing costs, investment planning, and consumer spending, requiring businesses to closely monitor monetary policy developments.
Trade Policy Shifts and Bilateral Agreements
A forthcoming US-Indonesia trade agreement could quadruple bilateral trade, offering tariff exemptions for Indonesian commodities and US access to critical minerals. However, the deal’s structure and alignment with industrial policy will determine whether Indonesia can achieve balanced, sustainable trade growth.
Foreign Direct Investment Remains Robust
Germany continues to attract significant FDI into its modular building sector, with capital flowing into manufacturing, technology, and green construction. Strategic alliances and cross-border partnerships are fostering innovation, market expansion, and supply chain resilience.
China-Brazil Strategic Alignment
China is deepening its strategic partnership with Brazil, especially in agriculture and infrastructure, amid shifting global power dynamics. Increased Chinese imports of Brazilian soybeans and infrastructure investments strengthen bilateral economic ties and supply chain resilience.
Regulatory Reforms for Foreign Investment
Sweeping reforms to business, visa, and property laws are opening more sectors to foreign ownership, simplifying bureaucracy, and enhancing expat residency options. These changes aim to boost FDI and position Thailand as Southeast Asia’s leading expat and investment destination.
US Military and Financial Support Remains Critical
The US continues to provide substantial military and financial aid to Israel, underpinning its security and economic resilience. This support shapes Israel’s defense posture, investment climate, and risk environment, but also ties business operations to evolving US-Israel policy dynamics and potential geopolitical backlash.
Limited Public Support and Social Acceptance
The Shelter Act lacks robust government support programs or tax incentives, leading to public debate over cost allocation. This could influence market sentiment, consumer demand, and the political sustainability of the shelter construction mandate.
Energy Costs and Industrial Competitiveness
Despite recent tariff reductions, Pakistan’s industrial energy costs remain 34% higher than regional peers, undermining export competitiveness and supply chain efficiency. High input costs, currency instability, and policy uncertainty continue to challenge manufacturing and investment strategies.
Currency Watchlist and Baht Volatility
The US Treasury has placed Thailand on its currency monitoring list due to trade and current account surpluses. The Bank of Thailand is tightening gold trading rules to curb speculative capital flows, which may impact exchange rates, compliance costs, and cross-border financial operations.
Sluggish Growth and Structural Reform
Thailand’s GDP growth is projected at just 1.5–2.0% for 2026, the lowest in three years, driven by weak exports, currency appreciation, and political uncertainty. This stagnation is prompting urgent calls for structural reforms, impacting investment strategies and business confidence.
Sanctions Enforcement and Geopolitical Risk
France has escalated enforcement of Russia-related sanctions, including high-profile maritime interdictions. This raises compliance risks for energy, shipping, and finance sectors, and signals a stricter stance on trade with sanctioned entities, impacting supply chain security.
Labor Market Tightness and Immigration Policy
US manufacturing and tech sectors face acute labor shortages, with 600,000 vacancies in 2025. Immigration reforms for skilled workers are under discussion, but persistent tightness may drive up labor costs and disrupt expansion plans for global investors.
Infrastructure Modernization and Administrative Complexity
Major infrastructure and energy projects are hampered by complex regulations, slow administrative processes, and financing uncertainties. This delays project delivery, affecting logistics, energy supply, and investment timelines for multinational businesses.
Regulatory and Trade Policy Uncertainty
Frequent policy shifts in trade, energy, and foreign investment—driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic priorities—create a volatile regulatory environment. Businesses face challenges in long-term planning, compliance, and risk management, particularly in sectors exposed to global supply chains and export markets.
Landmark India-EU Free Trade Agreement
India’s comprehensive FTA with the EU, concluded in January 2026, eliminates tariffs on 90% of Indian exports and expands market access for goods and services. This deal will significantly boost bilateral trade, attract FDI, and enhance supply chain resilience, positioning India as a key alternative to China.
Energy Transition Policy Uncertainty
Despite record renewable capacity in 2025, France’s energy transition is hampered by policy delays and political debate. Over 70% of energy needs are still met by imported fossil fuels, increasing exposure to global shocks and complicating long-term investment in green infrastructure.
Labor Market Reforms and Corporate Impact
South Korea is enacting sweeping labor reforms to extend protections to up to 8.6 million freelancers and platform workers. While aiming to reduce inequality, these measures could increase compliance costs, heighten labor market rigidity, and accelerate automation in business operations.
Foreign Investment Remains Resilient
France saw an 11% rise in foreign investment decisions in 2025, supporting nearly 48,000 jobs. Key sectors include automotive, AI, and renewables. However, persistent political instability and high public debt could affect future attractiveness and project execution.
Circular Economy Initiatives Gain Momentum
France is advancing circular economy models for EV batteries, with startups and industrial players piloting second-life and recycling projects. These initiatives are increasingly supported by public policy, enhancing resource efficiency and opening new business models for investors.
Fragmented Export Strategy Hinders Growth
France’s export support system remains fragmented, with exports lagging behind Germany and Italy. Calls for a unified ‘France brand’ and streamlined export promotion highlight the need for reform to boost competitiveness and international market share.
Yuan Internationalization and Financial Opening
China is deepening capital account opening and promoting the yuan’s global use. These efforts aim to enhance financial sector strength and support cross-border trade, but gradual reforms and market volatility require careful navigation by international investors and corporates.
US-Taiwan Strategic Technology Partnership
A historic US-Taiwan agreement will see at least $250 billion in Taiwanese investment in US chip manufacturing, with reciprocal tariff reductions. The deal aims to enhance supply chain resilience, secure advanced manufacturing, and deepen bilateral technology cooperation amid geopolitical tensions.
Restrictive Immigration and Labor Policy
US net migration turned negative in 2025 and is projected to remain so, driven by restrictive policies. This trend constrains labor force growth, dampens consumer demand, and poses long-term risks to economic dynamism and talent acquisition.
Complex Sanctions and Regulatory Landscape
Ukraine’s regulatory environment is shaped by evolving sanctions on Russia and new trade controls. Businesses face compliance challenges, especially regarding dual-use goods and financial transactions, requiring constant monitoring of legal and operational risks.
Political Stability And Reform Momentum
Vietnam’s leadership reaffirmed its commitment to ambitious economic reforms and growth targets, pledging over 10% annual GDP growth through 2030. Political stability and streamlined governance continue to attract foreign investors seeking predictability and reduced bureaucratic hurdles.
China’s Beef Import Quotas Impact
China’s new safeguard measures on Brazilian beef, effective January 2026, introduce quotas and higher tariffs on excess volumes, potentially reducing Brazil’s beef exports to China by up to 6%. This will force Brazilian producers to adjust supply chains and diversify export markets, impacting agribusiness strategies.
America First and Investment Nationalism
The US is pursuing an 'America First' agenda, leveraging tariffs and investment controls to promote domestic industries and national security. This approach complicates relations with allies, influences defense procurement, and increases compliance burdens for multinational firms.
China’s Strategic Export Controls
China has expanded export controls on critical minerals and technology, targeting entire supply chains. These measures, often ambiguous and reactive, create uncertainty for global manufacturers and heighten the risk of supply disruptions in sectors such as electronics, EVs, and renewable energy.
Australia-China Trade Tensions Escalate
Rising trade tensions have prompted Australia to consider tariffs and quotas on Chinese steel imports, risking retaliation. While relations stabilized post-2022, ongoing disputes over critical minerals, security, and market access create persistent uncertainty for exporters, investors, and supply chain planners.