Data centers drive power upgrades

Thailand’s data-center pipeline is scaling quickly: BOI expects 16 new EEC data centers (2026–2030) needing ~3,600MW. Egat is investing THB31bn to raise transmission capacity (to 1,150MW from 600MW in key nodes). Power availability, pricing, and renewable sourcing shape site-selection decisions.

Nickel quotas reshape supply

Jakarta is tightening nickel mining RKAB quotas, slashing major producers’ 2026 allowances and targeting national output around 260–270 million tons versus 379 million in 2025. Ore shortages may boost imports, alter battery-material supply chains, and raise project execution risk.

Enerji arzı, LNG ve hublaşma

Türkiye LNG kapasitesini büyütüyor; Avustralya’dan ilk LNG kargosu geldi ve gazın yaklaşık yarısı LNG olarak ithal edilebilir hale geldi. Azerbaycan 2025’te Türkiye’ye 11,915 bcm gaz gönderdi. Tedarik çeşitlenmesi sanayi için güvence sağlarken fiyat oynaklığı sürüyor.

Fiscal slippage raises funding costs

Breaches of the 2025 spending cap and widening deficits are pushing gross debt higher (about 78.7% of GDP) and inflating “restos a pagar” (R$391.5bn). Markets may demand higher risk premia, increasing hedging, financing and project-delivery risk.

Energy grid attacks, rationing risk

Sustained missile and drone strikes are damaging transmission lines, substations and thermal plants, triggering nationwide outages and forcing nuclear units to reduce load. Expect operational downtime, higher generator/backup costs, constrained production schedules, and rising insurance/security requirements.

Finanzas aisladas y de-risking bancario

El aislamiento financiero (incluido el estigma AML/CFT y limitaciones de corresponsalía) restringe pagos transfronterizos, trade finance y cobertura. Aumenta el uso de intermediarios, trueque o cripto, elevando costos de cumplimiento, riesgo de fraude y demoras en liquidaciones.

Tight fiscal headroom and tax risk

Economists warn the Chancellor’s budget headroom has already eroded despite about £26bn in tax rises, raising odds of further revenue measures. Corporate planning must factor potential changes to NI, allowances, subsidies, and public procurement priorities.

Red Sea route security risk

Houthi threats and intermittent de-escalation continue to destabilize Red Sea/Suez routing for Israel-linked trade. Carriers’ gradual returns remain reversible, raising freight premiums, longer lead times, insurance costs, and contingency planning needs for Asia–Europe supply chains.

EU–GCC–IMEC corridor integration

India’s concluded EU deal, launched GCC FTA talks, and revived IMEC connectivity plan aim to create a tariff-light Mumbai–Marseille trade spine. Potentially reduces Europe transit time ~40% and logistics costs ~30%, but exposed to West Asia security and implementation delays.

Sanctions Enforcement and Dual-Use Leakage

Sanctions compliance risk is rising as Ukraine alleges Russian drones source German Infineon transistors via third countries; 137 German components were identified in Russian weapons. Companies face heightened export-control scrutiny, end-use due diligence, and potential penalties for indirect re-exports.

EU Chemicals Protection and Competitiveness

Europe is moving to shield chemicals amid high costs and import pressure. The EC imposed antidumping duties on ABS (5.2–21.7%) and BDO (52.4–142.5%); Cefic estimates 37 Mt/y capacity closures since 2022 and 20,000 jobs lost, influencing feedstock pricing and investment decisions.

Risque de guerre commerciale

La hausse des droits de douane américains et le débat UE sur une “préférence européenne” accentuent les risques de rétorsion et de fragmentation des chaînes. Les exportateurs français (aéronautique, agroalimentaire, luxe) font face à incertitude réglementaire et coûts douaniers.

Secondary sanctions via tariffs

New executive authority threatens ~25% additional tariffs on imports from countries trading with Iran, alongside expanded “shadow fleet” designations. This blurs sanctions and trade policy, raising counterparty screening demands, shipping/insurance costs, and retaliation risk for firms operating across US-linked markets.

Investment screening and national security risk

The National Security and Investment regime continues to raise deal‑execution risk in sensitive sectors (defence, data, advanced tech, infrastructure). Longer timetables, remedies, and potential unwinds affect valuation and M&A structuring, especially for non‑UK acquirers and joint ventures involving critical supply chains.

Tech industrial policy and AI compute

The UK is pushing advanced computing and semiconductor capability. Fractile plans £100m investment over three years, including a Bristol engineering and test facility, underscoring incentives and procurement focus. Opportunities rise for R&D, but export controls, talent scarcity, and funding selectivity shape market entry.

Defense export expansion and backlash

Korean defense exports are scaling in Europe and the Middle East, with major deals and R&D MOUs, supporting industrial growth. But potential NATO-linked support for Ukraine risks Russian retaliation, adding sanctions, cyber, and commercial exposure for Korea-linked operations.

Accelerating LNG exports and permitting

The administration is fast-tracking U.S. energy production and LNG export approvals, reshaping global gas supply and contracting. Cheniere filed for a major Corpus Christi expansion to ~49 mtpa; U.S. LNG exports were ~111 mtpa in 2025, with ~100 mtpa more under construction for 2027–2030.

Ports and hubs targeted abroad

EU proposals to sanction Georgia’s Kulevi and Indonesia’s Karimun terminals signal a new precedent: third-country infrastructure enabling Russian oil may be designated. This expands due diligence from Russian entities to global transshipment nodes, increasing disruption risk in Asia and the Black Sea.

Trade remedies and export barriers

Vietnam faces intensifying trade-defense actions in key markets. Example: the US imposed antidumping duties of 47.12% on Vietnamese hard empty capsules, alongside CVDs. Similar risks can spread to steel and other goods, elevating legal costs and reshaping sourcing strategies.

Governance and tax administration overhaul

An IMF-linked tax reform plan through June 2027 targets FBR audit, IT and exemption simplification, while broader digital governance reforms expand compliance systems. Businesses should expect stronger enforcement, e-invoicing/data requirements, and changing effective tax burdens across sectors.

Gigafactory build-out accelerates

ProLogium’s Dunkirk solid-state gigafactory broke ground in February 2026, targeting 0.8 GWh in 2028, 4 GWh by 2030 and 12 GWh by 2032, with land reserved to scale to 48 GWh—reshaping European sourcing and localisation decisions.

Regional HQ and market access leverage

Riyadh continues using policy to anchor multinationals locally, linking government contracting and strategic opportunities to in‑kingdom presence. Reports indicate over 200 companies have relocated HQs to Riyadh. This affects corporate structuring, tax residency, talent deployment, and bid competitiveness.

Technology dependence and supply shortages

Despite import-substitution rhetoric, Russia remains dependent on imported high-tech inputs; reports cite China supplying ~90% of microchips, and low self-sufficiency in sectors like high-speed rail (15%) and shipbuilding/energy (30%). This raises operational fragility for industrial projects and suppliers.

Semiconductor concentration and reshoring

Taiwan remains central to advanced chips, while partners push partial reshoring. Taipei rejects relocating “40%” of the chip supply chain, keeping leading‑edge R&D on-island. Firms should plan for dual footprints, IP controls, and higher capex amid ecosystem limits.

Critical minerals investment opportunities, risks

Ukraine is advancing licensing and production-sharing models for strategic minerals, including lithium projects with large capex (reported up to US$700m initial; longer-term >US$1.8bn). Potential upside is high for EU battery supply chains, but war-risk insurance, permitting integrity, and infrastructure security remain decisive.

Digital Regulation and Data Sovereignty

The Coupang subpoena and the 33.67m-record data leak investigation highlight rising cross-border tension over privacy, enforcement actions, and perceived discrimination against U.S. firms. Expect tighter cybersecurity, evidence-preservation, and platform obligations, with potential trade spillovers and litigation risk.

Defense buildup reshapes industry

With defense spending reaching ~2% of GDP in FY2025 and election momentum for a more proactive posture, procurement, dual-use controls, and cyber/intelligence requirements are expanding. Opportunities rise for aerospace, electronics, and services, alongside higher regulatory scrutiny.

EU accession pathway uncertainty

Kyiv’s push for EU entry by 2027 is prompting debate on fast-track or “reverse” accession models, while unanimity obstacles (notably Hungary) persist. Alignment with EU law can improve market access, but regulatory change risk and timing remain material for investors.

Labor regulation and strike liability

The “Yellow Envelope” law taking effect March 10 broadens “employer” to include subcontractors and limits damages claims against strikers. Foreign chambers warn reduced predictability and higher labor-dispute exposure, especially for manufacturers and logistics operators using layered contracting models.

Critical-minerals downstreaming escalation

Jakarta is considering extending raw export bans beyond nickel and bauxite to minerals like tin, reinforcing ‘hilirisasi’ policy. While processed exports surged (nickel exports ~US$34bn in 2024 vs US$3.3bn in 2017), investors face policy shifts, permitting risk, and local-processing requirements.

Trade balance strain with neighbors

Pakistan’s trade deficit with nine neighbors widened 44.4% to $7.68bn in H1 FY26, driven by import growth (notably China) and weaker exports. This pressures FX demand and can prompt import management measures affecting raw materials and intermediate goods availability.

Competition enforcement in platforms

Israel’s Competition Authority is challenging dominant platform models, signaling tougher antitrust. Wolt may lose its exemption for operating both a delivery platform and its own grocery retail chain, potentially forcing divestment—reshaping last-mile logistics, pricing, and retail partnerships.

Maritime security and chokepoints

Iran-linked regional tensions elevate risk around the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea routing. Even without closure, seizures, drone incidents, and proxy threats can raise freight and war-risk premiums, extend lead times, and force supply chains to reroute and rebuffer.

Sanctions escalation and compliance spillovers

The EU’s proposed 20th Russia sanctions package expands energy, shipping, banking, and trade controls (including shadow-fleet listings and maritime services bans). Ukraine-linked firms face tighter due diligence on counterparties, routing, and dual-use items; enforcement pressure increases financing and logistics friction regionwide.

Tradeoffs EUA–China e tarifas

Com tarifas dos EUA (50%) desde agosto, a fatia das exportações industriais aos EUA caiu para 13,5% e a China subiu para 12,6%; vendas ao mercado americano recuaram ~19,5%. Empresas aceleram diversificação, mas enfrentam barreiras de acesso e concorrência chinesa em manufaturados.

Port, logistics and infrastructure expansion

Vietnam is accelerating seaport and hinterland upgrades to reduce logistics bottlenecks: planned seaport investment to 2030 totals 359.5 trillion VND (US$13.8bn). Rising vessel calls and container throughput support supply-chain resilience, but construction timelines and local congestion remain risks.