China de-risking and coercion exposure

Sino-Japanese tensions tied to Taiwan rhetoric have brought slower customs clearance, tighter controls and rare-earth licensing uncertainty. Firms face compliance and continuity risks in China-linked supply chains, accelerating diversification, inventory buffering and regional relocation decisions.

Post-election policy continuity risks

Bhumjaithai’s strong election showing reduces near-term instability, supporting portfolio inflows, but coalition bargaining and a multi-year constitutional rewrite could still delay budgets and reforms. Foreign investors face execution risk around stimulus, infrastructure procurement, and regulatory priorities.

U.S. tariff and ratification risk

Washington is threatening to lift tariffs on Korean goods from 15% to 25% unless Seoul’s parliament ratifies implementation laws tied to a $350bn Korea investment pledge. Exporters face pricing shocks, contract renegotiations, and accelerated U.S. localization pressure.

LNG export surge and permitting

DOE/FERC are accelerating LNG export permitting and returning applications to “regular order,” driving new capacity filings (e.g., Corpus Christi expansion) and long-term 15–20 year contracts. Benefits include energy supply diversification; risks include oversupply and price volatility by 2030.

Tech investment sentiment and resilience

Israel’s innovation ecosystem remains a core investment draw, but conflict-linked volatility and talent constraints influence funding conditions and valuations. Companies should stress-test R&D continuity, cyber risk, and cross-border collaboration, while watching for policy incentives supporting strategic sectors.

Digital regulation and data enforcement

US states are escalating privacy, AI, and children’s online-safety enforcement, creating a fragmented compliance landscape alongside EU rules. Multinationals must manage divergent consent, age-assurance, and data-broker obligations, with rising litigation and enforcement risk affecting digital business models.

Sanctions and export-control compliance

Canada’s alignment with allied sanctions—especially on Russia-related trade and finance—raises compliance burden across shipping, commodities, and dual-use goods. Businesses need robust screening, beneficial-ownership checks, and controls on re-exports via third countries to avoid enforcement exposure.

Labor constraints and mobilization effects

Military mobilization, displacement, and infrastructure damage tighten labor availability and raise wage and retention pressures in key sectors. International firms should expect execution delays, higher HSE and HR costs, and greater reliance on automation, remote operations, and cross-border staffing.

Business investment drag and policy uncertainty

UK GDP growth was only 0.1% in Q4 2025 and business investment fell nearly 3%, the biggest drop since early 2021, amid budget uncertainty. Multinationals should expect cautious capex, softer demand, and heightened sensitivity to regulatory or political shocks.

Dezenflasyon ve faiz patikası

TCMB 2026 enflasyonunu %15–21 aralığında öngörüyor, hedef %16; politika faizi %37 civarında ve kademeli indirim beklentisi sürüyor. Kur, talep ve kredi koşullarındaki oynaklık ithalat maliyetlerini, fiyatlamayı, yatırımın finansmanını ve sözleşme endekslemelerini etkiliyor.

Immigration tightening and talent constraints

Stricter U.S. visa policies are disrupting global talent mobility. H‑1B stamping backlogs in India reportedly extend to 2027, alongside enhanced vetting and a wage-weighted selection rule effective Feb 27, 2026, raising staffing risk for tech, healthcare, and R&D operations.

IMF-driven macro stabilization path

An IMF board review (Feb 25) may unlock a $2.3bn tranche, reinforcing exchange-rate flexibility and fiscal consolidation. Record reserves ($52.59bn end‑Jan) and easing inflation (~11.7%) improve import capacity, credit sentiment, and deal-making conditions.

Digital restrictions and cyber risk

Internet shutdowns and heightened cyber activity undermine payments, communications, and remote operations. For foreign firms, this increases business-continuity costs, data-security risks, and vendor performance uncertainty, particularly in e-commerce, logistics coordination, and financial services interfaces.

Decarbonisation incentives for heavy industry

A new A$321m grants round under the Powering the Regions Fund supports Safeguard Mechanism covered facilities to cut emissions, funding up to 50% of project costs. It boosts demand for clean-tech, electrification and low-carbon materials while increasing compliance expectations for high emitters.

Durcissement vis-à-vis de la Chine

Rapports publics et débats politiques évoquent un bouclier commercial, avec l’idée de droits de douane élevés pour contrer la concurrence chinoise (coûts 30–40% inférieurs). Les entreprises doivent anticiper contrôles, exigences d’origine, et tensions sur approvisionnements critiques.

Tech export controls to China

Washington is tightening licensing and end-use monitoring for advanced AI chips and semiconductor tools destined for China, with strict Know-Your-Customer and verification terms. This elevates compliance costs, constrains China revenue, and accelerates supply-chain bifurcation in tech.

Food import inspections disrupt logistics

New food-safety inspection rules (Decree 46) triggered major port and border congestion: 700+ consignments (~300,000 tonnes) stalled in late January and 1,800+ containers stuck at Cat Lai. Compliance uncertainty raises lead times, storage costs and inflation risks.

India–US tariff reset framework

An interim India–US trade framework cuts many US duties on Indian goods to about 18% (from punitive levels), with contingent zero‑tariff carveouts later. In return, India may lower tariffs/NTBs for selected US goods, reshaping export pricing and compliance.

Vision 2030 investment recalibration

Saudi Arabia is resetting Vision 2030: the $925bn PIF shifts its 2026–2030 strategy toward industry, minerals, AI and tourism while re-scoping mega-projects (e.g., parts of NEOM). This changes procurement pipelines, financing availability, and partner selection for foreign investors.

Taiwan Strait grey-zone supply shocks

Intensifying PLA and coast-guard activity around Taiwan supports a “quarantine” scenario that could disrupt commercial shipping without open war, raising insurance premiums, rerouting costs, and delivery delays. High exposure sectors include electronics, LNG-dependent manufacturing, and time-sensitive components.

Property slump and confidence drag

Housing weakness persists despite policy easing: January new‑home prices fell 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y, with declines in 62 of 70 cities. This weighs on consumption and credit, increasing payment risk, project delays, and cautious capex by China‑exposed partners.

Energia, capacidade e risco climático

A Aneel aprovou leilões de reserva de capacidade em março, com preço-teto de até R$ 1,6 milhão/MW-ano e 368 projetos cadastrados. O mix renovável exige reforço de potência firme e transmissão; eventos climáticos aumentam riscos de custo e continuidade operacional.

Power market reform execution risk

Government is unbundling Eskom and establishing an independent transmission system operator ahead of wholesale market rollout from April 2026, but timelines, market rules, wheeling and tariff design remain contested. Delays raise outage and cost risks for industry and investors.

Critical minerals supply-chain buildout

Government funding, tax incentives and US partnership are accelerating Australian mining-to-processing capacity (e.g., strategic reserve, new prospectus projects, antimony output). This reshapes EV, semiconductor and defence inputs, and raises permitting, ESG and offtake-competition dynamics.

Energy export diversification projects

Canada is accelerating west-coast export optionality, including proposals for an Alberta-to-Pacific crude line and expansion of export routes. This could reshape long-term offtake, shipping, Indigenous partnership requirements, and permitting timelines for investors.

Outbound investment restrictions expand

Treasury’s outbound investment security program is hardening into a durable compliance regime for certain China-linked AI, quantum, and semiconductor investments. Multinationals should expect transaction screening, notification/recordkeeping duties, and chilling effects on cross-border venture and joint-development strategies.

AB Gümrük Birliği modernizasyonu

AB ve Türkiye, Gümrük Birliği’nin güncellenmesi ve uygulamanın iyileştirilmesi için çalışmayı yeniden canlandırıyor; EIB operasyonlarının kademeli dönüşü de gündemde. İlerleme, tarım-hizmetler-kamu alımları kapsaması, uyum maliyetleri ve AB pazarına erişim/menşe kurallarında değişim yaratabilir.

China engagement and investment scrutiny

Ottawa’s diversification push toward China—alongside signals of openness to Chinese SOE energy stakes—raises national-security review, reputational and sanctions-compliance risk. Businesses should expect tighter due diligence and potential policy reversals amid allied pressure.

Energiepreise, Netzentgelte, Wettbewerb

Hohe Stromkosten und regulatorische Reformen (z.B. Diskussion um Netzentgelte für Einspeiser, Marktmacht großer Erzeuger) beeinflussen Standortentscheidungen. Für energieintensive Branchen steigen Risiko von Volatilität, Investitionsaufschub und Carbon-Leakage, während PPAs und Eigenversorgung attraktiver werden.

Monetary easing amid sticky services

UK inflation fell to 3.0% in January while services inflation stayed elevated near 4.4%, keeping the Bank of England divided on timing of rate cuts. Shifting borrowing costs will affect sterling, financing, consumer demand, and capex planning.

Industrial carbon pricing competitiveness

Canada is adjusting industrial carbon pricing to cut emissions while protecting competitiveness, with implications for energy-intensive exporters facing EU/other carbon-border measures. Policy design affects operating costs, capital allocation, and product-market access strategy.

Strike disruptions across logistics

A renewed strike cycle is hitting transport and services: Lufthansa cancellations reached ~800 flights affecting ~100,000 passengers, while further rail and public‑sector actions are possible from March. Recurrent stoppages raise lead times, logistics costs and contingency needs.

High-tech FDI and semiconductors

Vietnam is moving up the value chain, attracting electronics and semiconductor ecosystems. Bac Ninh hosts 1,140+ Korean projects with US$18.5bn registered capital; 2025 realised FDI reached ~US$27.62bn. Opportunity is strong, but skills shortages and supplier depth constrain localisation.

Cybersecurity regulation tightening

Israel is advancing its first permanent cyber law, expanding National Cyber Directorate powers and requiring immediate incident reporting for “critical” entities (potentially 400–600 firms). Multinationals face higher compliance, disclosure, and vendor-management obligations across Israeli operations.

Tariffs and China tech controls

Washington is tightening trade defenses via higher tariffs and expanding export controls, especially around semiconductors and China-linked supply chains. Companies should expect cost volatility, licensing risk, and compliance burdens, plus accelerated “friend-shoring” and domestic-content requirements for critical technologies.

Chip industrial policy acceleration

A new semiconductor competitiveness law creates a presidential commission, special funding accounts, cluster support, and streamlined permits to expand memory, foundry, packaging, and AI chips. This strengthens Korea’s onshore supply chain but keeps labor-hour flexibility contested for fabs.