Expanding Section 232 industrial tariffs

Sector tariffs imposed on national-security grounds—steel, aluminum, autos, copper, lumber and more—remain intact and may broaden. This raises landed costs for manufacturers, affects supplier choice, and can trigger retaliatory measures and localization pressures across allied markets.

Acordo UE–Mercosul em vigor

A UE decidiu aplicar provisoriamente o acordo UE–Mercosul e o Senado brasileiro aprovou o texto, aguardando assinatura presidencial. O tratado tende a eliminar tarifas para 91% dos bens, alterando competitividade, regras de origem e estratégias de acesso ao mercado europeu.

EV/auto transition and China competition

Thailand’s EV ecosystem is deepening as Chinese brands expand distribution and local partnerships; vehicle sales surged ahead of EV 3.0 incentive deadlines. Competitive pressure, evolving excise rules, and localization requirements will reshape automotive supply chains and parts sourcing.

Domestic suppliers upgrading constraints

Vietnam’s supporting industries face stricter technical standards from foreign-invested manufacturers, while access to medium/long-term credit and industrial land remains limited. This raises localization risk and may prolong qualification cycles. Buyers should invest in supplier development and dual sourcing.

Fiscal strain and reform risk

France’s 2026 budget passed amid political fragility, with deficits around 5% of GDP and debt near 117%+. Rising borrowing sensitivity increases tax and spending-change risk, affecting investment planning, public procurement pipelines, and consumer demand outlook.

Energy tariffs, circular debt risks

Power-sector reform remains central to IMF talks, with tariff adjustments and circular-debt management under scrutiny. Policy volatility in industrial and residential tariff structures increases cost uncertainty for manufacturers, complicates long-term PPAs, and can disrupt supply chains through load management.

Water insecurity and municipal failures

Recurring urban outages, high non‑revenue water and infrastructure decay are disrupting operations in Gauteng and other metros. Investigations into tanker tender corruption and new national crisis structures signal reform, but businesses must plan for site resilience and ESG exposure.

Sanctions expansion and compliance burden

Ukraine is tightening sanctions against Russia-linked defense, finance, crypto, and “shadow fleet” actors, including 225 captains and dozens of entities. Multinationals face heightened due-diligence, counterparty screening, and shipping-chain transparency requirements to avoid secondary exposure and reputational risk.

Rising cyber risk to industry

Taiwan’s leadership highlights persistent cyberattacks and infiltration attempts targeting government and key companies. For investors, this elevates requirements for zero-trust security, supply-chain vendor controls, and incident response readiness, particularly in semiconductors, telecoms and critical infrastructure.

Import-standards reform reshapes market access

Israel’s shift toward European-aligned import standards and expanded ‘what’s good for Europe’ pathways can lower barriers for compliant products, increase competition, and change certification workflows. Firms should reassess labeling, testing, and parallel-import strategies as rules phase in.

FDI screening recalibration with China

India eased Press Note 3: non‑controlling land‑border beneficial ownership up to 10% can use automatic route, while China/HK entities still need approval; selected manufacturing proposals get 60‑day decisions. This reduces PE/VC friction, but keeps security-driven scrutiny.

Critical minerals alliances surge

Canada is accelerating critical-mininerals diplomacy and project financing, announcing 30 new partnerships and $12.1B in mobilized project capital (total $18.5B). This strengthens allied supply chains for defense and clean tech, but raises permitting, ESG, and Indigenous engagement demands.

Electricity market reform accelerates

Eskom unbundling and rollout of a wholesale power market (SAWEM) are advancing, with more private PPAs and wheeling. Improved reliability lowers operating risk, but tariff-setting, grid access, and regulatory capacity remain key uncertainties for investors.

Gulf-backed mega projects surge

Large Gulf investments (e.g., Ras al-Hekma) and additional multi‑billion deals are boosting liquidity and construction pipelines. Opportunities rise in real estate, ports, and services, but execution risk persists around land, procurement transparency, and crowding-out local private competitors.

Currency, rates, liquidity management

The State Bank pledges flexible policy as external shocks and oil-driven inflation pressures grow. Credit outstanding reached 18.86 quadrillion VND by Feb 26 (+1.4% since end‑2025). The interbank exchange rate averaged 26,044 VND/USD end‑Feb (0.94% stronger vs end‑2025), but funding conditions can tighten quickly.

Commodity windfall amid constraints

High gold and PGM prices are lifting mining profits and could add tens of billions of rand in taxes and royalties over 2026–2028. This supports the fiscus and currency, but mining still faces power, logistics bottlenecks, and policy certainty issues affecting expansion decisions.

Réancrage industriel via data centers

La France est devenue 4e destination mondiale d’investissements industriels 2021–2025 (139 Md$), portée par des mégaprojets de data centers (86 Md$ en 2025). Effets: demande électricité/réseau, foncier, permis, cybersécurité, et dépendances chaînes d’approvisionnement numériques.

AML tightening after FATF exit

Following removal from the FATF grey list (Oct 2025), authorities are intensifying compliance: crypto “travel rule”, proposed fines up to 10% of turnover for beneficial-ownership noncompliance, and potential public registers. Expect higher KYC costs but improved bankability.

Fuel subsidy rollback and costs

Egypt raised domestic fuel prices by roughly 14–30% amid war-driven energy costs; diesel rose ~17% to EGP 20.50/litre and vehicle gas jumped 30% to EGP 13/m³. Higher logistics and input costs will hit transport, manufacturing margins, and consumer demand, raising wage and pricing pressures.

Maximum-pressure sanctions escalation

The US is expanding sanctions on Iran’s “shadow fleet,” intermediaries in the UAE/Türkiye, and weapons-procurement networks, raising secondary-sanctions exposure. Compliance costs, de-risking by banks/shippers, and sudden designation risk complicate trade, contracting, and counterparty screening.

US–Indonesia trade pact reset

The Reciprocal Trade Agreement expands market access but creates compliance and political risks: Indonesia promises fewer export restrictions to the US yet keeps raw-ore bans, while most US imports face 0% tariffs. Firms should anticipate regulatory follow-through and potential renegotiation pressures.

Foreign investor exit and asset security

Western firms continue exiting but face frozen funds, forced discounts, and regulatory hurdles; selective releases occur under tough conditions. Risks include temporary administration, unpredictable approvals, and limited repatriation routes, raising the bar for remaining investors’ governance and downside protection.

Water security and municipal service risk

Water shortages and weak municipal maintenance disrupt operations in major metros and industrial zones. National plans include >R156bn for water/sanitation and a new National Water Resources Infrastructure Agency from 2026, but near-term outages and leak losses persist.

Accelerating EV manufacturing investments

Indonesia is courting EV makers and integrated battery projects (US$7–8bn; ~20GW capacity plans) and reports EV sales above 100,000 in 2025 (~12.9% share). Incentives and localization ambitions support supply-chain clustering but depend on nickel policy and infrastructure execution.

Energy security and price shocks

Israel–Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption risk elevate oil/LNG costs. Thailand is capping diesel, adding spot LNG cargoes, and diversifying crude/LNG (US, Africa, Malaysia). Expect volatile input costs, freight/insurance rises, and power-tariff upside risk.

US–Turkey sanctions reset prospects

Ankara says talks continue to lift US CAATSA sanctions tied to S‑400s, aiming before US midterms; this affects defense, aviation, dual‑use tech and financing channels. Any easing could unlock major procurement and co‑production, while failure sustains compliance and reputational risk.

Fiscal consolidation and sovereign outlook

Improving revenues and tighter deficits are supporting bonds and the rand, with debt stabilisation near ~79% of GDP and potential ratings outlook upgrades. However, slow growth and infrastructure backlogs limit policy space, affecting tax certainty, public investment, and payment risk.

Semiconductor industrial policy surge

Tokyo is deepening state support for domestic chips: Rapidus received ¥267.6bn new funding, with government taking 11.5% voting rights plus a golden share, and targeting 2nm production by 2027—reshaping supplier opportunities and security screening.

Expropriation and legal unpredictability

State-driven confiscations and court actions are rising, with sharply higher confiscation rulings and high-profile asset seizures and redomiciliation pressure. Foreign and foreign-held structures face elevated forced-sale, governance and enforceability risks, making long-term investment protection unreliable.

Legislative Ratification And Policy Noise

The Taiwan–US tariff pact still needs Legislative Yuan review, and opposition calls for renegotiation add timing risk. Delays complicate investment approvals, pricing, and contracting as firms wait for clarity on market-opening commitments, procurement schedules, and enforcement mechanisms.

Red Sea security and Suez reliability

Shipping lines continue to oscillate between Trans-Suez and Cape routes as Red Sea risks persist, undermining schedule reliability. Even partial diversions materially affect Egypt’s foreign-currency earnings and global supply chains, raising freight costs, transit times, and insurance premiums.

Energy exports under maritime crackdown

Oil revenues are pressured by lower price caps and aggressive action against the “shadow fleet,” including tanker seizures and new vessel designations. Disruptions raise freight, insurance and counterparty risk, complicate energy trading, and increase volatility for buyers relying on Russia-linked crude flows.

Risque budgétaire et fiscalité entreprises

La consolidation budgétaire reste contrainte par un Parlement fragmenté. Fitch maintient la note A+ mais pointe dette élevée; déficit attendu ~4,9% du PIB en 2026. Surtaxe exceptionnelle sur bénéfices prolongée, concentrée sur grands groupes, affectant plans d’investissement.

FDI artışı ve teşvik odakları

2025’te FDI %12,2 artarak 13,1 milyar $’a çıktı; perakende-toptan %32 (3,05 milyar $), imalat %31 (~3 milyar $), bilgi-iletişim %14 (1,31 milyar $). HIT-30 ve teşvik güncellemeleri yatırım fırsatı sunarken regülasyon takibi kritik.

China-Derisking und Technologiekontrollen

EU und Berlin verschärfen Sicherheits- und Technologiepolitik gegenüber China, u.a. bei 5G/6G, Cloud und kritischer Infrastruktur; Huawei bleibt dennoch in EU-Forschungsprojekten bis 2027–2030 eingebunden. Unternehmen müssen Compliance, Exportkontrollen, IP-Schutz und Retorsionsrisiken neu bewerten.

Macro-financial dependence on donors

An IMF-approved 48‑month EFF of about $8.1B includes an immediate ~$1.5B disbursement and underpins broader packages, including EU financing. Ukraine’s growth outlook is constrained by energy shocks, making budget support, arrears risk, and payment discipline key considerations for suppliers.