Risco fiscal e dívida crescente

A dívida bruta pode encerrar o mandato em ~83,6% do PIB e projeções apontam >88% em 2029, pressionando o arcabouço fiscal e a credibilidade. Isso eleva prêmio de risco, encarece financiamento, e aumenta volatilidade cambial e regulatória para investidores.

Semiconductor tariffs and reshoring

New U.S. tariffs on advanced AI semiconductors, alongside incentives for domestic fabrication, are reshaping electronics supply chains. Foreign suppliers may face higher landed costs, while OEMs must plan dual-sourcing, redesign bills of materials, and adjust product roadmaps amid policy uncertainty.

Energy security and gas reservation

Federal plans to introduce an east-coast gas reservation from 2027—requiring LNG exporters to reserve 15–25% for domestic supply—could alter contract structures, price dynamics and feedstock certainty for manufacturers and data centres. Producers warn of arbitrage and margin impacts in winter peaks.

Sanctions enforcement and secondary risk

U.S. sanctions on Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and related maritime “shadow” networks are increasingly enforced with supply-chain due diligence expectations. Counterparties, insurers, shippers, and banks face heightened secondary exposure, trade finance frictions, and cargo-routing constraints for energy and dual-use goods.

Regulatory divergence in product standards

Ongoing UK–EU divergence—covering conformity marking (UKCA/CE), product safety and sector rules—creates dual-compliance costs. Exporters must manage parallel documentation, testing and labeling, while Northern Ireland arrangements add complexity for distribution models across Great Britain and the EU.

RBA tightening and persistent inflation risk

The RBA lifted the cash rate to 3.85% as core inflation re-accelerated and capacity pressures persisted. Higher financing costs and a stronger AUD can affect valuations, capex and consumer demand, while raising hedging needs for importers/exporters and tightening credit conditions across supply chains.

China exposure and strategic assets

Australia’s China-linked trade and investment exposure remains a top operational risk. Moves to potentially reclaim Darwin Port from a Chinese lessee, alongside AUKUS posture, raise retaliation risk. Western Australia’s iron ore exports to China near A$100bn underline concentration risk for supply and revenues.

Weaponized finance and sanctions risk

US investigations into sanctioned actors using crypto and stablecoins highlight expanding enforcement across digital rails. For cross-border businesses, this raises screening obligations, counterparty risk, and potential payment disruptions, especially in high-risk corridors connected to Iran or Russia.

Reciprocal tariff regime expansion

Executive-order “reciprocal” tariffs are being used as a standing leverage tool, illustrated by the U.S.–India framework moving to an 18% reciprocal rate and conditional removals. Firms face volatile landed costs, origin rules scrutiny, and partner-specific dealmaking risk.

BEG subsidies and budget risk

Federal BEG/BAFA support is critical to Wärmewende economics, but annual budget ceilings and frequent program adjustments create stop‑start ordering behavior. International suppliers face higher payment-cycle uncertainty, while investors must model demand cliffs, compliance documentation, and administrative throughput constraints.

Workforce nationalisation and labour reforms

Saudi authorities are tightening Saudization in selected functions (e.g., sales/marketing mandates reported up to 60% for targeted roles) alongside broader labour-law amendments. Firms must redesign HR operating models, pay structures, and compliance controls to avoid penalties and operational disruption.

Textile rebound but cost competitiveness

Textile exports rebounded to a four-year high in January 2026 ($1.74bn, +28% YoY), helped by lower industrial power tariffs. Sustainability depends on input costs, logistics efficiency, and upgrading product mix as competitors gain better market access and buyers demand faster, cleaner production.

Chabahar port and corridor uncertainty

India’s Chabahar operations face waiver expiry (April 26, 2026) and new U.S. tariff threats tied to Iran trade, prompting budget pullbacks and operational caution. Uncertainty undermines INSTC/overland connectivity plans, increasing transit risk for firms seeking Eurasia routes via Iran.

Renewables, batteries and green hydrogen

Large-scale clean-energy buildout is accelerating: the $1.8bn ‘Energy Valley’ project includes 1.7 GW solar plus 4 GWh storage, and a 10 GWh/year battery factory in SCZONE is planned. Green hydrogen/ammonia export plans target first shipment by 2027.

Logistics and multimodal corridor buildout

Budget-linked infrastructure plans emphasize freight corridors, inland waterways and port connectivity to cut transit times and logistics costs. For global manufacturers, improved hinterland access can expand viable plant locations, though land acquisition, project execution and state capacity remain key risks.

Gas expansion and contested offshore resources

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are advancing the Dorra/Durra offshore gas project, targeting 1 bcf/d gas and 84,000 bpd condensate, despite Iran’s claims. EPC and consultancy tenders are moving, creating opportunities but adding geopolitical, legal, and security risk to contracts.

AML/CTF bar for crypto access

FCA registration milestones (e.g., Blockchain.com) show continued selectivity under UK Money Laundering Regulations. Firms need robust CDD, transaction monitoring, record-keeping and senior-manager accountability, influencing partner bank access and cross-border onboarding scalability.

Tariff volatility and retaliation

U.S. tariff policy is increasingly used for leverage, prompting EU countermeasure planning and disrupting exporters. Firms face abrupt duty changes, contract renegotiations, and demand shifts (e.g., European autos, wine/spirits). Diversification and tariff-engineering are rising priorities.

Treasury market liquidity drains

Large Treasury settlements and heavy auction calendars can pull cash onto dealer balance sheets, reducing liquidity elsewhere. Tightened repo and margin dynamics raise volatility across risk assets, complicate collateral management, and increase the chance of disruptive funding squeezes for corporates.

FX stability, reserves, lira risk

Central bank reserves hit a record $218.2bn, supporting near-term currency stability and reducing tail-risk for importers. Yet expectations still point to weak lira levels (around 51–52 USD/TRY over 12 months), complicating hedging, repatriation, and contract indexation.

Trade–Security Linkage Uncertainty

Tariff disputes are delaying broader U.S.–Korea security cooperation discussions, including nuclear-powered submarines and expanded nuclear fuel-cycle consultations. Linkage risk increases the chance that commercial negotiations spill into defense and energy projects, complicating long-horizon investment decisions.

Fernwärme-Regeln bremsen Bestandsumstieg

Streit um Wärmelieferverordnung und Kostenneutralitätsgebot kann Fernwärmeprojekte im Bestand verzögern, während Wärmepumpen weniger regulatorische Hürden haben. Für internationale Netzbetreiber, OEMs und Infrastruktur-Fonds verschieben sich Risiko-Rendite-Profile, Timing und Deal-Strukturen in Transformationsprojekten.

Rail et nœuds logistiques fragiles

La régularité ferroviaire s’est dégradée en 2025; retards liés à l’opérateur, au réseau et à facteurs externes. Impacts: fiabilité des flux domestiques/portuaires, coûts de stocks, planning just-in-time, nécessité de redondance multimodale et assurances délai.

LNG Export Expansion and Permitting Shifts

US LNG capacity is expanding rapidly; Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 4 filing would lift site capacity to ~49 mtpa, while US exports reached ~111 mtpa in 2025. Faster approvals support long‑term supply, but oversupply and policy swings create price and contract‑tenor risk.

Digital restrictions and cyber risk

Internet shutdowns and heightened cyber activity undermine payments, communications, and remote operations. For foreign firms, this increases business-continuity costs, data-security risks, and vendor performance uncertainty, particularly in e-commerce, logistics coordination, and financial services interfaces.

Crypto and fintech rulebook tightening

The FCA is advancing a full cryptoasset authorization regime, consulting on Consumer Duty, safeguarding, SMCR accountability and reporting, with an application gateway expected in late 2026 and rules effective 2027. Market access and product design will increasingly hinge on governance readiness.

Energy planning and power constraints

Vietnam is revising national energy planning to support 10%+ growth targets, projecting 120–130 million toe demand by 2030 and rapid renewables expansion. Businesses face execution risk in grids, LNG logistics, and permitting; power reliability remains a key site-selection factor.

Tougher sanctions enforcement compliance

Germany is tightening EU-sanctions enforcement after uncovering ~16,000 illicit Russia-bound shipments worth about €30m. Legislative reforms criminalize more violations and raise corporate penalties up to 5% of global turnover, increasing due‑diligence, screening and audit burdens.

UK–EU trade frictions persist

Post-Brexit trade remains exposed to SPS checks, rules-of-origin compliance and periodic regulatory updates under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement. Firms face continuing customs/admin costs, inventory buffers, and re-routing decisions, especially in food, chemicals, automotive and retail.

BRICS payments push sanctions exposure

Brazil’s joint statement with Russia criticising unilateral sanctions and promoting local-currency settlement comes as bilateral trade reached US$10.9bn in 2025. Firms must strengthen sanctions screening, banking counterparties and shipping/insurance checks to avoid secondary-sanctions and compliance disruptions.

External liquidity and refinancing risk

FX reserves fell near $15.5bn after a $700m China loan repayment, with a further $1.3bn Eurobond due April 2026. Heavy reliance on Chinese/Saudi/UAE rollovers raises sudden-stop risk, pressuring the rupee, dividends repatriation and trade credit availability.

Infrastructure push and budget timing

Major parties and business groups emphasize infrastructure—rail, airports, grids, water systems and data centers—as the main path to durable growth. However, government formation and budget disbursement timing can delay tenders, impacting EPC pipelines, industrial estate absorption, and logistics upgrades.

Balochistan security and CPEC exposure

Militant attacks in Balochistan underscore elevated security risks around CPEC assets, transport corridors, and Gwadar-linked logistics. Higher security costs, insurance premiums, and project delays weigh on FDI appetite, especially for infrastructure, mining, and energy ventures with long payback periods.

Ужесточение контроля судоходства

Запад переходит к физическому пресечению обхода: перехваты и досмотры танкеров, обсуждения ареста судов, давление на «безфлаговые» и переоформление танкеров под российский флаг. Фрахт, страхование и портовые сервисы дорожают, повышая сбои отгрузок.

Macroeconomic recovery and rate cuts

Inflation has eased to around 1.8% with a stronger shekel, reopening scope for Bank of Israel rate cuts. Cheaper financing may support investment, yet currency strength can squeeze exporters and pricing, influencing hedging strategies and contract denomination choices.

Tax reform rollout and veto risk

Implementation of the new dual VAT regime (CBS/IBS plus Selective Tax) is advancing, but Congress is still voting on key presidential vetoes and governance rules. Transition complexity will hit pricing, invoicing, credits, cross-border services and supply-chain tax efficiency.