IMF programme and macro conditionality

Late-February IMF review will determine release of a $1bn EFF tranche, shaping FX reserves, taxation, privatisation and monetary policy. Policy slippage risks renewed import controls, payment delays and currency volatility that directly affect trade finance and investor confidence.

Optics and photonics supply expansion

Nokia’s optical-network growth and new manufacturing investments support high-capacity connectivity crucial for cloud simulation and telepresence. This can reduce latency for cross-border services, yet photonics component bottlenecks and specialized materials sourcing remain supply-chain risks for integrators.

Tariff volatility reshapes trade flows

Ongoing on‑again, off‑again tariffs and court uncertainty (including possible Supreme Court review of IEEPA-based duties) are driving import pull‑forwards and forecast containerized import declines in early 2026, complicating pricing, customs planning, and supplier diversification decisions.

Licenciamento e exploração de óleo

A prospecção de novas fronteiras de petróleo está estagnada: poços offshore caíram de 150 (2011) para 19 (2025), com entraves de licenciamento e foco no pré-sal. Incide sobre oferta futura, conteúdo local, investimentos de fornecedores e previsibilidade regulatória para O&G.

Technology dependence and import substitution gaps

Despite ‘technological sovereignty’ ambitions, Russia remains reliant on imported high-tech inputs; estimates suggest China supplies about 90% of microchips, and key sector self-sufficiency targets lag. Supply chains face quality, substitution, and single-supplier risks, plus heightened export-control exposure.

Balochistan security threatens projects

Militant violence in Balochistan is disrupting logistics and deterring FDI, including audits and security redesigns around the $7bn Reko Diq project. Attacks on rail and highways raise insurance, security and schedule costs for mining, energy, and corridor-linked supply chains.

Санкции и вторичные риски

20-й пакет ЕС расширяет санкции: полный запрет морских услуг для российской нефти, +43 судна «теневого флота» (640), ограничения на банки и криптоплатформы, новые импорт/экспорт‑запреты. Растут риски вторичных санкций и комплаенса для глобальных цепочек поставок.

Industrial policy reshapes investment

CHIPS/IRA-style incentives and local-content rules steer capex toward U.S. manufacturing, batteries, and clean tech, while raising compliance complexity for multinationals. Subsidies can improve U.S. project economics, but may trigger trade frictions, retaliation, and fragmented global production strategies.

ACC consolidation and ramp risks

Stellantis-backed ACC is shelving planned gigafactories in Germany and Italy and refocusing on French operations, while its Nersac site faces temporary chemistry shutdown, reduced temporary staff, and reported high scrap/efficiency issues—raising execution and supply reliability risks.

Dezenflasyon ve faiz patikası

TCMB 2026 enflasyonunu %15–21 aralığında öngörüyor, hedef %16; politika faizi %37 civarında ve kademeli indirim beklentisi sürüyor. Kur, talep ve kredi koşullarındaki oynaklık ithalat maliyetlerini, fiyatlamayı, yatırımın finansmanını ve sözleşme endekslemelerini etkiliyor.

Kommunale Wärmeplanung steuert Nachfrage

Die kommunale Wärmeplanung entscheidet, wo Wärmenetze ausgebaut werden und wo dezentral (Wärmepumpe/Biomasse) dominiert. Unterschiedliche Planungsstände und Fristen erzeugen stark regionale Nachfrage-Cluster, beeinflussen Standortwahl, Vertriebsnetze, Lagerhaltung sowie Projektpipelines internationaler Wärme- und Infrastrukturinvestoren.

Logistics disruption and labor risk

Rail and potential port labor disruptions remain a recurrent risk, with spillovers into U.S.-bound flows. For exporters of bulk commodities and importers of containerized goods, stoppages elevate inventory buffers, demurrage, and rerouting costs, stressing time-sensitive supply chains.

Defense-driven simulation procurement

Finland’s heightened security posture is accelerating procurement of training, mission rehearsal and synthetic environments across NATO-compatible standards. This expands demand for simulators, XR devices and secure networks, creating export opportunities but raising compliance, security-clearance and supply-chain assurance requirements.

Border crossings and movement controls

The limited reopening of Rafah for people—under Israeli security clearance and EU supervision—highlights how border-regime shifts can quickly change labor mobility, humanitarian flows and regional political risk. Businesses should expect sudden permitting changes affecting contractors, travel and project timelines.

Digital regulation targets big tech

Regulators are escalating scrutiny of platforms and AI: the ICO and Ofcom opened investigations into X/Grok, while CMA reforms and interventions aim for faster, more predictable merger and market oversight. International tech and investors should expect higher compliance costs and deal-execution uncertainty.

US trade access and tariff risk

AGOA has been extended only one year, restoring preferences but preserving policy uncertainty and potential eligibility reviews. South Africa accounted for about half of the $8.23bn AGOA exports in 2024; short renewals complicate automotive, metals and agriculture investment decisions and contracting horizons.

Rail concessions expand logistics options

Brazil’s rail concessions policy targets eight auctions and roughly R$140bn in investments, with international technical cooperation (e.g., UK Crossrail) supporting structuring and regulation. Successful tenders would reduce inland freight costs, improve reliability, and open PPP opportunities.

US–Taiwan tariff pact reset

The newly signed US–Taiwan reciprocal trade deal lowers US tariffs on Taiwan to 15% and has Taiwan remove or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on US goods. It reshapes sourcing, pricing, compliance, and market-entry strategies across electronics, machinery, autos, and agriculture.

Property slump and financial spillovers

China’s housing correction continues to depress demand and strain credit. January new-home prices fell 3.1% y/y and 0.4% m/m, with declines in 62 of 70 cities. Persistent developer debt and bank exposures weigh on consumption, payments risk, and counterparty reliability across B2B sectors.

Defense rearmament boosts demand

Germany is accelerating procurement, including a €536m first tranche of loitering munitions within a €4.3bn framework and NATO long-range drone initiatives. This supports select industrial orders and dual-use tech investment, but tightens export controls, compliance, and supply competition for components.

US–China tech controls tightening

Advanced semiconductor and AI chip trade remains heavily license-bound. Recent U.S. scrutiny over Nvidia H200 terms and penalties for tool exports to Entity-Listed firms signal elevated enforcement risk, end-use monitoring, and disruption to China-facing revenue, R&D collaboration, and capex plans.

Carbon market rollout and emissions caps

Vietnam is building a domestic carbon market: Decree 29/2026 sets the trading platform’s framework, with pilots through 2028 and full operation from 2029. Sector caps for 2025–26 (243–268 MtCO2e) start shaping compliance and green investment priorities.

Massive infrastructure investment pipeline

The government’s Plan Mexico outlines roughly 5.6 trillion pesos through 2030 across energy and transport, including rail, roads and ports. If executed, it could ease logistics bottlenecks for exporters; however, funding structures, permitting timelines and local opposition may delay benefits.

EU trade defenses and retaliation

EU countervailing duties on China-made EVs are evolving into minimum-price, quota, and EU-investment “undertakings,” while Beijing retaliates with targeted tariffs (e.g., 11.7% on EU dairy). Firms face higher compliance costs, pricing constraints, and fast-moving dispute risk.

Outbound investment screening expansion

U.S. rules restricting outbound investments into sensitive sectors (semiconductors, AI, quantum and related capabilities) are tightening board-level approvals and reporting. Multinationals must redesign China exposure, restructure JV/VC activity, and document controls across affiliates and funds.

Weather-driven bulk supply disruptions

Queensland wet weather, force majeures and port/logistics constraints tightened metallurgical coal availability, lifting benchmark prices (FOB Australia ~US$218/mt end-2025). Commodity buyers should expect episodic supply shocks, quality variation, and higher inventory/alternative sourcing needs.

Logistics upgrades and multimodal corridors

Dedicated Freight Corridors, Gati Shakti cargo terminals, port connectivity and new national waterways aim to reduce transit times and logistics costs. Firms can redesign distribution networks, but should factor land acquisition delays, last-mile bottlenecks, and regulatory fragmentation.

Bahnnetz-Sanierung stört Logistik

Großbaustellen bei der Bahn (u.a. Köln–Hagen monatelang gesperrt) verlängern Laufzeiten im Personen- und Güterverkehr und erhöhen Ausweichkosten. Für internationale Lieferketten steigen Pufferbedarf, Lagerhaltung und multimodale Planung; zugleich bleibt die Finanzierung langfristiger Netzmodernisierung unsicher.

Weaponized finance and sanctions risk

US investigations into sanctioned actors using crypto and stablecoins highlight expanding enforcement across digital rails. For cross-border businesses, this raises screening obligations, counterparty risk, and potential payment disruptions, especially in high-risk corridors connected to Iran or Russia.

Data regulation tightening under DUAA

Most provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Multinationals face higher compliance costs for AI, marketing, and cross‑border data operations.

Defence spending surge reshapes supply

Budget passage unlocks a major defense ramp: +€6.7bn in 2026 (to ~€57bn), funding submarines, armored vehicles and missiles. This boosts demand for aerospace, electronics and metals, but may crowd out civilian spending and tighten skilled-labor availability.

Clean-energy localization requirements

Industrial policy and tax credits increasingly favor North American and allied-country content, tightening rules on “foreign” supply chains. Firms in batteries, EVs, solar, and critical minerals must document provenance, redesign sourcing, and manage credit eligibility risk in project economics.

Сжатие азиатского спроса на нефть

Риски сокращения импорта Индией и санкционное давление увеличивают скидки на российскую нефть: дисконты ESPO к Brent около $9/барр., Urals — ~$12, а поставки в Индию падали до ~1,3 млн барр./сут. Россия сильнее зависит от Китая.

Korea semiconductor industrial policy reboot

A new Special Act creates a presidential commission, dedicated funding and cluster support to strengthen the entire chip supply chain. Regulatory streamlining and regional incentives can attract foreign suppliers, but unresolved labor flexibility debates may constrain rapid R&D and ramp-ups.

Trade policy alignment with US partners

Ongoing US–Taiwan trade and tariff frameworks and broader partner initiatives shape market access and rules of origin. Exporters should reassess tariff exposure, documentation, and sourcing, while investors monitor regulatory convergence in digital trade, standards, and customs facilitation.

Strategic U.S. investment mandate

Seoul is fast‑tracking a special act to operationalize a $350bn U.S. investment pledge, including a state-run investment vehicle. Capital allocation, project selection (including energy), and conditionality will influence Korean corporates’ balance sheets and partner opportunities for foreign suppliers.