Sanctions and Secondary Trade Restrictions

The US continues to use sanctions as a foreign policy tool, recently targeting Iran and imposing secondary tariffs on countries trading with sanctioned states. These actions complicate compliance for global firms and can disrupt cross-border investment and trade.

Energy Infrastructure Expansion

Israel has approved major energy projects, including a 900-megawatt power plant near Jerusalem, to meet rising demand and support future data centers. These developments offer opportunities for foreign investment but are subject to long regulatory timelines and regional risks.

Vision 2030 Economic Reforms Advance

Saudi Arabia continues to implement Vision 2030 reforms, focusing on economic diversification, infrastructure megaprojects, and attracting foreign investment. These initiatives offer new opportunities but require careful navigation of evolving regulations and local partnership requirements.

Geopolitical Tensions Impact Supply Chains

Export controls, especially U.S. restrictions on semiconductor technology to China, create operational uncertainty for Korean firms. Temporary exemptions for Samsung and SK Hynix highlight ongoing risks to production stability and cross-border supply chain planning.

Energy Transition and Supply Risks

Germany’s shift to renewables, stagnating at 58.8% of electricity in 2025, and reliance on imports from France and Denmark, exposes supply chains to volatility and higher costs. Industrial competitiveness is challenged by expensive, less predictable energy.

AI and Technology as Market Drivers Amid Fragmentation

Artificial intelligence and advanced technology investment remain central to US economic growth and global market leadership. However, trade fragmentation, export controls, and valuation risks are prompting more selective investment approaches, with a focus on supply chain security, domestic capacity, and regulatory compliance.

Agricultural Protests Disrupt Logistics

Widespread farmer mobilizations, including blockades in Paris and Lyon, have disrupted transport and supply chains. These protests, focused on trade policy and regulatory burdens, pose risks to business continuity and market access for international firms operating in France.

Export Competitiveness and Structural Weaknesses

Pakistan’s export-to-GDP ratio has fallen to 10.4%, with high costs, poor infrastructure, and inconsistent policies undermining competitiveness. Reliance on remittances and debt, rather than exports, exposes the economy to external shocks, limiting growth and supply chain integration.

Resilience Amid US Tariff Pressures

Despite 50% tariffs imposed by the US in 2024, Brazil’s exports reached a record US$348.7 billion in 2025. Diversification toward China, Argentina, and new markets offset US losses, but ongoing negotiations and potential tariff reimpositions remain a risk for exporters.

Surge in Foreign Direct Investment

Turkey attracted $12.4 billion in FDI in the first 11 months of 2025, a 28% increase year-on-year. The EU remains the main source, with wholesale, ICT, and food manufacturing leading. Improved macroeconomic stability and policy consistency drive renewed investor confidence.

Geopolitical Risks Impact Investment Climate

Heightened China-Japan tensions over Taiwan, coupled with regional military posturing, increase uncertainty for foreign direct investment. Businesses face elevated regulatory and operational risks, with potential for further escalation affecting market stability and cross-border capital flows.

Dollar Decline Reshapes Global Finance

The US dollar fell 12% in 2025, its steepest drop in eight years, driven by Fed rate cuts and global growth shifts. This depreciation impacts export competitiveness, import costs, and multinational earnings, prompting currency hedging and portfolio adjustments.

Port and Logistics System Weakness

Persistent inefficiencies in South Africa’s ports and railways, especially at Cape Town and Durban, continue to undermine export competitiveness and supply chain reliability. Despite some reforms, structural weaknesses in logistics remain a major constraint for international trade and business operations.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor 2.0 Expansion

Pakistan and China agreed to upgrade CPEC, focusing on industry, agriculture, mining, and infrastructure. The new phase aims to deepen trade, technology, and investment ties, with third-party participation encouraged, making CPEC central to Pakistan’s growth and regional integration.

China-Saudi Economic Ties Deepen

Saudi Arabia is strengthening economic relations with China, expanding trade, investment, and technology cooperation. This shift may influence regulatory standards, competitive dynamics, and supply chain strategies for businesses with exposure to both Western and Chinese markets.

Gulf Investments Drive Economic Recovery

Egypt has attracted over $12 billion in foreign investment in 2025, with Gulf states—especially Qatar—committing billions to real estate, tourism, and infrastructure. These inflows are critical for stabilizing the economy, supporting foreign reserves, and funding large-scale development projects.

Business Rates And Duty Hikes

Rising business rates and new duties on fuel, alcohol, air travel, and vaping in 2026 will increase operational costs, especially for retail and hospitality. These changes threaten high street viability and may trigger closures, job losses, and supply chain adjustments.

Structural Economic and Regulatory Reforms

South Korea’s 2026 economic strategy emphasizes structural reforms, regulatory streamlining, and industrial innovation. These efforts aim to sustain growth, improve the investment climate, and address underlying challenges such as low productivity, labor market rigidity, and demographic shifts.

China-Japan Trade Tensions Escalate

China’s sweeping ban on dual-use exports and rare earths to Japan, in retaliation for Tokyo’s Taiwan stance, threatens Japan’s manufacturing supply chains and economic growth. This marks a significant rise in geopolitical risk for international investors and supply chain managers.

Regulatory Liberalisation in Insurance Sector

The Insurance Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2025, allows 100% FDI in insurance and eases entry for global reinsurers. This reform enhances capital access, competition, and innovation, making India’s insurance sector more attractive to international investors and supporting broader financial sector growth.

ESG Compliance and Export Market Access

Stricter environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards are becoming mandatory for export access, especially to the US and EU. Recent US bans on Vietnamese seafood due to environmental non-compliance highlight the growing importance of ESG for maintaining global market share and attracting sustainable investment.

Political Uncertainty and Border Tensions

Thailand faces heightened political uncertainty ahead of the February 2026 elections, compounded by border tensions with Cambodia. These factors increase operational risks, impact investor confidence, and may disrupt cross-border trade and supply chains.

Currency Collapse and Hyperinflation

The Iranian rial has fallen to over 1.4 million per US dollar, losing 45% of its value in a year. Inflation exceeds 42%, eroding purchasing power, raising import costs, and destabilizing the business environment for both local and foreign enterprises.

Labor Market and Immigration Policy Shifts

US labor market dynamics are impacted by changing immigration policies, technological advances, and employment trends. These shifts affect workforce availability, wage pressures, and operational costs for international businesses.

Innovation, AI, and Digital Transformation

India is accelerating its digital economy through AI, tech innovation, and digital asset regulation. The government is fostering R&D, digital infrastructure, and responsible AI, positioning India as a global leader in digital services and technology-driven growth.

Evolving Foreign Investment Climate

China’s M&A market is rebounding, with deal value projected to rise 13% in 2026. Regulatory reforms and improved market conditions are attracting strategic and financial investors, though persistent geopolitical and legal risks require careful due diligence for foreign entrants.

Political Realignment and Economic Policy Shift

Mark Carney’s rise as Prime Minister marks a pragmatic shift in Canada’s political and economic strategy, emphasizing resource independence, resilience, and infrastructure investment. This realignment impacts regulatory priorities, trade negotiations, and the overall business climate for international investors.

Fossil Fuel Expansion And Energy Policy

The Trump administration’s aggressive push for fossil fuels, including efforts to control Venezuela’s oil reserves and rollback of environmental regulations, signals a durable tilt against clean energy. This shift may hinder the US energy transition and cede global clean-tech leadership to China.

Supply Chain Relocation and Resilience

Vietnam remains a top destination for supply chain relocation, with firms like Google shifting production from China. However, underdeveloped local supplier networks, logistics gaps, and regulatory bottlenecks present ongoing risks to supply chain resilience and operational efficiency for international manufacturers.

Full Stock Market Liberalization

Saudi Arabia will fully open its stock market to all foreign investors in February 2026, abolishing the Qualified Foreign Investor regime. This landmark reform is expected to attract $9–10 billion in new capital, boost liquidity, and strengthen the Kingdom’s integration with global markets, though transparency and governance remain key concerns.

Northern Powerhouse Rail Investment

The government has committed up to £45 billion for Northern Powerhouse Rail, aiming to transform connectivity between major cities. This long-term infrastructure project will boost regional growth, create jobs, and unlock new business opportunities, but faces delivery risks.

Home Battery Subsidy Rush and Market Impact

Australia’s federal subsidy scheme for home batteries has spurred over 200,000 installations, driving rapid market growth. Imminent changes to subsidy rules are prompting a rush for larger systems, impacting energy storage business models and influencing consumer and commercial investment decisions.

Infrastructure and Regulatory Bottlenecks

Industrial development faces delays due to spatial planning (RTRW) and infrastructure issues, including electricity and logistics. Resolving these bottlenecks is critical for accelerating foreign investment and improving supply chain efficiency in key sectors.

Supply Chain Realignment and Resilience

US tariffs and sanctions, combined with China’s export controls on critical minerals, are driving a global supply chain realignment. Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America are gaining sourcing share, while US firms face higher compliance costs, increased supply chain complexity, and the need for diversification.

Investment Bottlenecks and EEC Land Issues

Land shortages and outdated zoning regulations in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) delay industrial projects and deter foreign investment. The government is fast-tracking reforms, but infrastructure and regulatory bottlenecks remain significant barriers to scaling up high-value manufacturing and technology clusters.

Energy Infrastructure And Mineral Scarcity

US energy transition faces hardware constraints, including transformer and copper shortages, and dependence on Asian imports. Private energy islands and methane pyrolysis are emerging, but mineral security and grid bottlenecks threaten reliability and cost for global supply chains.