Tariff authority reshaped by courts

Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based tariffs, but the White House pivoted to Section 122 surcharges (up to 15% for 150 days) and signaled more Section 301/232 actions. Expect pricing volatility, contract renegotiations, refund litigation, and compliance burden for importers.

Biosecurity and market access barriers

Australia’s stringent biosecurity settings continue to shape agrifood trade, with lengthy risk assessments and strict import protocols. Exporters and importers face compliance-heavy pathways, potential delays, and higher inspection and certification costs, influencing sourcing strategies and inventory buffers.

Carbon border and emissions compliance

EU CBAM transition is moving toward payment obligations from 2026, raising embedded-carbon reporting and cost exposure for imports of steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizers and electricity into France. Suppliers must improve emissions data, audit trails and pricing clauses to protect margins.

Concessões portuárias e infraestrutura 2026

O governo iniciou leilões de arrendamentos portuários em 2026 (Santana, Natal, Porto Alegre), projetando R$226 milhões em investimentos e anunciando 18 leilões no ano. A agenda pode reduzir gargalos, mas baixa competição e judicialização elevam risco de cronograma.

Disaster and infrastructure resilience planning

Japan’s exposure to earthquakes and extreme weather keeps business-continuity a board priority; government frameworks allow emergency energy supply requests and logistics reprioritization. Multinationals should diversify suppliers, validate tier-2/3 dependencies, and stress-test port and warehousing routes.

EU clean-tech subsidies and reshoring

EU approval of a €1.1bn French tax-credit scheme for clean-tech manufacturing signals strong industrial policy momentum. Expect intensified competition for projects, localization incentives, and scrutiny of critical raw materials sourcing, reshaping site-selection, supplier qualification and JV structures.

Fiscal stimulus versus debt sustainability

Takaichi’s coalition is pushing tax relief (notably a proposed two‑year suspension of the 8% food consumption tax) alongside spending plans, while IMF warns against fiscal loosening given high debt and rising interest costs. Policy mix uncertainty can move JGB yields, FX, and domestic demand.

Investment chill from policy uncertainty

Canadian officials warn trade uncertainty is delaying net business investment. For multinationals, this heightens the value of flexible capex phasing, hedging and scenario planning, while affecting M&A valuations, project finance costs, and supplier commitments tied to U.S. market access.

Air connectivity intermittently constrained

Security-driven flight suspensions and temporary Israeli airspace closures disrupt executive travel, high‑value cargo, and just‑in‑time imports. Foreign carriers have repeatedly paused Tel Aviv service, while regional airspace curbs force rerouting, higher costs, and slower customs-to-delivery cycles.

US tariffs reshape export outlook

US tariff policy has shifted to a temporary 10% global import surcharge (150 days from Feb 24, 2026), while sectoral tariffs persist (e.g., metals 50%). This creates near-term pricing relief but high uncertainty for exporters and supply contracts.

Shadow-fleet oil trade opacity

Investigations point to a fast-changing ecosystem of shell traders and shared digital infrastructure masking Russian crude flows worth roughly $90bn, with entities lasting about six months. This raises due‑diligence difficulty, fraud and title risks, and shipment disruption from sudden designations or detentions.

Tighter sanctions licensing and guidance

OFSI published 2026 guidance on how it prioritises licence applications, signalling a more structured, transparent approach but also higher compliance expectations. Businesses should anticipate longer lead times for sensitive transactions, stronger documentation requirements, and increased need for sanctions governance.

Sanctions enforcement and shadow fleets

U.S. sanctions remain a dominant constraint on trade finance, shipping, and energy logistics, with growing focus on evasion networks and “shadow fleet” facilitation. Businesses face higher KYC/AML expectations, vessel-screening costs, and secondary-sanctions exposure across intermediaries and insurers.

Critical minerals export weaponization

China’s export controls on gallium, germanium and rare earths remain a high-impact lever. With China producing ~99% of primary gallium and supplying ~95% of US imports, shipment disruptions and price spikes (e.g., yttrium +60%) threaten aerospace, semiconductors and EV supply chains.

High-tech rebound amid manpower strain

Tech remains central to exports (about 57%) and a major GDP contributor, with funding rising to about $15.6B in 2025. Yet reservist call-ups and prior brain-drain episodes create delivery and talent risks for R&D, SaaS operations, and multinational captive centers.

Critical minerals export licensing

China is expanding and enforcing export controls on dual-use and strategic materials, including rare-earth-related items and metals like gallium/germanium. New restrictions (including toward Japan) increase procurement uncertainty, lead times, and price volatility for electronics, aerospace, defense-adjacent, and clean-tech supply chains.

State footprint and privatization

IMF and markets continue pressing Cairo to reduce the state’s economic role and accelerate divestments. Uneven progress signals regulatory uncertainty for strategic sectors, potential competitive distortions, and shifting rules on licensing, local content, and pricing—key for FDI and PPP structuring.

War-risk insurance and de-risking

War-risk coverage is shifting from pilots to structured frameworks, including state support via the Export Credit Agency and growing DFI participation. Improved insurance enables capex and trade finance, but pricing, exclusions and claims processes still constrain project bankability.

Northern-front escalation tail risk

Recurring Israel–Hezbollah friction and Israeli strikes in Lebanon keep a material escalation scenario alive, especially amid heightened U.S.–Iran tensions. A wider conflict would threaten ports, aviation, energy infrastructure, and business continuity, with knock-on effects to logistics and insurance.

OPEC+ policy and oil volatility

Saudi-led OPEC+ decisions are shifting amid Iran conflict risks, with an April hike of 137,000 bpd and possible larger increase discussed. Saudi exports already rose. Resulting price swings affect energy costs, shipping insurance, inflation, and project economics.

Port expansion and global operators

Saudi Arabia is accelerating hub ambitions via Mawani: January throughput reached 738,111 TEU (+2% y/y) with transshipment up 22%. Deals like APM Terminals buying 37.5% of Jeddah’s South Container Terminal deepen integration with Maersk, affecting routing, capacity and logistics costs.

Defense spending and fiscal trajectory

Supplementary defense budgets and higher deficit targets may redirect public spending, raise borrowing needs, and reshape procurement. Opportunities rise for defense suppliers, but civilian infrastructure timelines, tax policy, and sovereign-risk perceptions can shift quickly.

Regional conflict spillovers and operational risk

Gaza and wider regional escalation periodically depress tourism, disrupt Red Sea trade, and trigger energy force majeure events. Heightened security posture can affect border logistics and corporate duty-of-care, while political risk premiums raise the cost of capital and insurance.

Regulatory capacity, corruption and compliance

Investor confidence depends on effective regulators, enforcement against organised crime, and transparent procurement. Progress such as FATF greylist removal supports financial flows, but municipal arrears, illicit connections, and governance weaknesses continue to elevate operational risk and compliance overhead.

Currency volatility and hedging

February inflation reached 31.5% y/y (2.96% m/m) while geopolitical shocks triggered roughly $8bn FX sales and a temporary funding-rate shift toward ~40%. Persistent lira volatility raises pricing, contract indexation, and FX-hedging costs for importers and investors.

Chabahar and corridor uncertainty

Strategic logistics projects such as Chabahar and the INSTC face growing political and sanctions uncertainty, including waiver changes. Investors face contract enforceability, insurance and security costs, and delayed rail/port upgrades—reducing corridor reliability for India–Central Asia trade.

Oil era and EACOP ramp-up

EACOP, a ~$4bn project reported ~79% complete, underpins Uganda’s first oil and peak output near 230,000 bpd. Expect major EPC spend, local-content requirements, ESG scrutiny, and medium-term FX/fiscal shifts affecting contracts, payments and import demand.

Expanded trade enforcement via 301

USTR is accelerating Section 301 probes targeting alleged unfair practices, including excess capacity, forced labor, digital discrimination, and subsidies. Country-by-country outcomes could raise duties above 15% for select partners, reshaping sourcing, compliance diligence, and pricing strategies.

High-tech supply-chain sensitivity

Israel’s semiconductor and photonics ecosystem is benefiting from AI demand, yet geopolitical shocks can trigger order reallocation and supplier risk reviews. Multinationals should assess single-site dependencies, export-control exposure, and continuity plans for critical components.

Trade exposure to US tariffs

Businesses face heightened external risk from US trade policy uncertainty and potential reciprocal tariffs, which Thai industry groups warn could affect export categories worth over US$45 billion. Firms should stress-test pricing, origin rules, and re-routing options while diversifying markets and suppliers.

Defense exports and industrial partnerships

Large defense MOUs and procurement contests (e.g., Canada submarines; UAE framework) are expanding Korea’s high-value exports and after-sales ecosystems. Benefits include diversification beyond consumer electronics, but compliance, offsets, technology-transfer controls, and geopolitical scrutiny are increasing.

Zim sale reshapes trade resilience

Proposed sale of Zim to Hapag-Lloyd/FIMI raises national-security scrutiny over Israel’s dependence on foreign-controlled shipping during emergencies. Requirements like an 11-vessel “golden share” structure may affect route coverage, capacity guarantees, pricing, and strategic supply assurances for critical goods.

Logistics resilience and chokepoints

US supply chains remain sensitive to port capacity, rail/truck constraints and labor negotiations, amplifying lead times and demurrage risk. Companies should diversify gateways, build buffer inventory for critical SKUs, and strengthen carrier contracts and contingency routing plans.

Critical minerals export controls

Beijing is tightening and selectively pausing export controls on gallium, germanium and rare earths, with licensing delays driving shortages (yttrium prices up ~60% since November). Multinationals face input volatility, compliance risk, and accelerated diversification/stockpiling pressures.

Domestic gas pricing and allocation

Industri mendorong batas harga LNG domestik ≤US$9/MMBtu dan pembatasan substitusi regasifikasi (≤15% alokasi PJBG) agar daya saing manufaktur terjaga. Ketidakpastian harga/volume gas memengaruhi keputusan investasi pabrik, kontrak energi, serta risiko biaya untuk operasi intensif energi.

Investment screening and deal friction

CFIUS continues expanding process efficiency and scrutiny (e.g., Known Investor Program consultations) alongside broader national-security posture. Cross-border M&A timelines may lengthen for sensitive assets (data, critical infrastructure, dual-use tech), raising break fees, financing costs, and disclosure burdens.