Rail-border bottlenecks and gauge mismatch

Efforts to integrate Ukraine’s rail with EU networks highlight structural constraints: different track gauges require transshipment at borders, creating durable chokepoints. Any surge in exports or reconstruction imports can overwhelm terminals, extending lead times and pushing firms to diversify routing via Danube and road.

Tariff volatility and legal fights

U.S. tariff policy remains fluid, including renewed baseline/reciprocal tariff concepts and active court challenges over executive authority. Importers face pricing uncertainty, sudden compliance changes, and higher landed-cost risk, especially for China-, Canada-, and Mexico-linked supply chains.

Geopolitical realignment of corridors

With European routes constrained, Russia deepens reliance on non-Western corridors and intermediaries—through the Caucasus, Central Asia, and maritime transshipment—to sustain trade. This raises reputational and compliance risk for firms operating in transit states, where due diligence on beneficial ownership and end-use is increasingly critical.

Weak growth, high leverage constraints

Thailand’s macro backdrop remains soft: IMF/AMRO/World Bank sources point to ~1.6–1.9% 2026 growth after ~2% in 2025, with heavy household debt and limited policy space. Demand uncertainty affects retail, autos, credit availability, and capex timing.

Critical minerals investment opportunities, risks

Ukraine is advancing licensing and production-sharing models for strategic minerals, including lithium projects with large capex (reported up to US$700m initial; longer-term >US$1.8bn). Potential upside is high for EU battery supply chains, but war-risk insurance, permitting integrity, and infrastructure security remain decisive.

Health-tech export platform for simulation

Finland’s health-technology exports exceed €2.5bn with a stated ambition toward €3bn this decade, underpinned by strong digital health infrastructure. This creates a pull for VR training and clinical simulation solutions, but requires rigorous clinical validation and procurement navigation.

Ужесточение контроля судоходства

Запад переходит к физическому пресечению обхода: перехваты и досмотры танкеров, обсуждения ареста судов, давление на «безфлаговые» и переоформление танкеров под российский флаг. Фрахт, страхование и портовые сервисы дорожают, повышая сбои отгрузок.

Critical minerals export leverage

Beijing’s dominance—about 70% of rare-earth mining and ~90% processing—keeps global manufacturers exposed to licensing delays or sudden controls. Western allies are organizing price floors and stockpiles to de-risk, raising sourcing costs and compliance burdens for China-linked inputs.

Data protection compliance tightening

Draft DPDP rules and proposed faster compliance timelines raise near-term operational and legal burdens, especially for multinationals and potential “Significant Data Fiduciaries.” Unclear thresholds and cross-border transfer mechanisms increase compliance risk, contract renegotiations, and potential localization-style costs.

Fiscal slippage raises funding costs

Breaches of the 2025 spending cap and widening deficits are pushing gross debt higher (about 78.7% of GDP) and inflating “restos a pagar” (R$391.5bn). Markets may demand higher risk premia, increasing hedging, financing and project-delivery risk.

China exposure and strategic assets

Australia’s China-linked trade and investment exposure remains a top operational risk. Moves to potentially reclaim Darwin Port from a Chinese lessee, alongside AUKUS posture, raise retaliation risk. Western Australia’s iron ore exports to China near A$100bn underline concentration risk for supply and revenues.

Sanctions enforcement and secondary risk

U.S. sanctions on Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and related maritime “shadow” networks are increasingly enforced with supply-chain due diligence expectations. Counterparties, insurers, shippers, and banks face heightened secondary exposure, trade finance frictions, and cargo-routing constraints for energy and dual-use goods.

China tech controls tighten further

Stricter export controls and licensing conditions on advanced semiconductors (e.g., Nvidia H200) and enforcement actions (e.g., Applied Materials $252m penalty for SMIC-linked exports) raise compliance burdens, restrict China revenue, and accelerate redesign, re-routing, and localization of tech supply chains.

Data (Use and Access) Act

Core provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers to compel interviews and technical reports and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Compliance programs, AI/data governance, and cross-border data strategies may need recalibration.

Immigration tightening and talent constraints

Stricter U.S. visa policies are disrupting global talent mobility. H‑1B stamping backlogs in India reportedly extend to 2027, alongside enhanced vetting and a wage-weighted selection rule effective Feb 27, 2026, raising staffing risk for tech, healthcare, and R&D operations.

Ports labor negotiations and logistics fragility

Ongoing labor-contract uncertainty at key U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports heightens strike and congestion tail risks. Importers should diversify gateways, build inventory buffers, and stress-test inland transport capacity to avoid repeat disruptions and demurrage spikes.

Export earnings and currency pressure

Port damage is delaying exports of grain and ore, with central bank warnings of lower export revenues and added import needs for fuel and energy equipment. This raises hryvnia volatility and payment risks, impacting pricing, working capital, and hedging strategies for importers/exporters.

Photonics and optics capacity

Finland’s optics and photonics base—supporting high-end XR headsets and sensing—attracts scale-up capital, including semiconductor-laser manufacturing expansion. This improves component availability for simulation devices, yet exposes firms to specialized materials dependencies and export-sensitive dual-use scrutiny.

Suez Canal revenues and FX inflows

Canal receipts are recovering: 2026 YTD revenue reached $449m from 1,315 ships, up from $368m a year earlier, with tonnage up sharply. Recovery boosts hard-currency inflows, yet remains exposed to renewed Red Sea escalation and carrier routing decisions.

Digital Regulation and Data Sovereignty

The Coupang subpoena and the 33.67m-record data leak investigation highlight rising cross-border tension over privacy, enforcement actions, and perceived discrimination against U.S. firms. Expect tighter cybersecurity, evidence-preservation, and platform obligations, with potential trade spillovers and litigation risk.

India–US trade pact reset

A new interim India–US trade framework cuts U.S. tariffs to ~18% on many Indian exports while India reduces tariffs and non-tariff barriers for U.S. goods. Companies should reassess rules-of-origin, pricing, market access, and compliance timelines.

USMCA review and tariff risk

The July 1 USMCA review is clouded by Washington’s tariff-first posture and reported withdrawal talk. Even partial rollbacks remain uncertain. Expect higher compliance costs, volatile rules-of-origin, and elevated hedging needs for North American supply chains and investors.

Energy export diversification projects

Canada is accelerating west-coast export optionality, including proposals for an Alberta-to-Pacific crude line and expansion of export routes. This could reshape long-term offtake, shipping, Indigenous partnership requirements, and permitting timelines for investors.

Macroeconomic stagnation and expensive money

Growth is slowing sharply (IMF forecasts around 0.6–0.9%), while inflation and high rates persist alongside tax increases such as VAT to 22%. Tighter credit and weaker demand elevate default risk, constrain working capital, and complicate investment cases and repatriation planning.

High-tech FDI and semiconductors

Vietnam is moving up the value chain, attracting electronics and semiconductor ecosystems. Bac Ninh hosts 1,140+ Korean projects with US$18.5bn registered capital; 2025 realised FDI reached ~US$27.62bn. Opportunity is strong, but skills shortages and supplier depth constrain localisation.

Domestic instability and regulatory unpredictability

Economic stress and political crackdowns heighten operational disruption risk, including abrupt import controls, licensing changes, and enforcement actions. Foreign firms confront higher ESG and reputational exposure, labor volatility, and difficulty securing reliable local partners, contracts, and dispute resolution.

US/EU trade policy pressure

Vietnam’s export engine faces heightened trade-policy risk, notably US tariff negotiations and stricter enforcement actions, plus EU standards. Record US surplus (~US$133.8bn in 2025) increases scrutiny of transshipment and origin compliance, raising duty, audit and rerouting risks.

إصدارات دولية وضغوط خدمة الدين

الحكومة تخطط لإصدار سندات دولية بنحو 2 مليار دولار خلال النصف الثاني من 2025/2026 مع هدف إبقاء الإصدارات دون 4 مليارات سنوياً. في المقابل، بلغت خدمة الدين الخارجي 38.7 مليار دولار في 2024/2025، ما يعزز مخاطر إعادة التمويل وتكلفة رأس المال.

Trade rerouting and logistics costs

With port disruptions, exporters increasingly divert cargo by rail and road through EU borders, raising transit time, capacity constraints and costs. Agriculture remains the largest export driver (commodities US$41.7bn in 2024), so volatility in corridors affects global buyers’ sourcing strategies and contract performance.

Vision 2030 recalibration, capex shift

Saudi Arabia is rescoping and deferring flagship giga-projects as oil revenues tighten, while redirecting capital toward AI, mining, logistics, and advanced manufacturing. This reshapes EPC pipelines, demand forecasts, and counterparty risk for suppliers, lenders, and investors.

Defence exports and industrial upgrading

Defence and aerospace exports began 2026 at a record $555.3m in January (+44.2% y/y), and new deals in the region broaden industrial partnerships. This supports high-value manufacturing clusters, but can also elevate export-control, end-use, and reputational diligence requirements.

China coercion, economic security

Rising China–Japan tensions are translating into economic-security policy: tighter protection of critical goods, dual-use trade and supply-chain “China-proofing.” Beijing’s reported curbs (seafood, dual-use) highlight escalation risk that can disrupt exports, licensing, and China-linked operations.

GCC connectivity and rail integration

The approved fully electric Riyadh–Doha high‑speed rail (785 km, >300 km/h) signals deeper GCC transport integration and future freight corridors. Alongside expanding domestic rail (30m tons freight in 2025), it can reshape supply-chain geography, customs coordination, and distribution footprints.

AI governance in retail finance

FCA’s call for input on AI’s long-term impact to 2030 signals reliance on outcome-based frameworks rather than new rules. Online investing firms must prove model governance, explainability and third‑party controls to deploy AI in advice, nudging and surveillance.

US tariff shock and AGOA risk

US imposed 30% tariffs on South African exports in 2025, undermining AGOA preferences and creating uncertainty for autos, metals, and agriculture. Exporters face margin compression, potential job losses, and incentives to re-route supply chains or shift production footprints regionally.

Logistics build-out and trade corridors

Ports and inland logistics are expanding, including new logistics zones and rail growth supporting freight and mining flows. Saudi Railways moved ~30m tons of freight in 2025, reducing trucking dependence. Improves supply-chain resilience, but project phasing and permitting remain execution risks.