Mission Grey Daily Brief - October 26, 2024
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The war in Ukraine continues to dominate global affairs, with North Korean troops moving towards the frontline and Russian forces suffering record casualty rates. Elon Musk is accused of having close ties with Vladimir Putin, withholding Starlink access from Taiwan as a favour to China. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced new sanctions targeting secondary entities in countries supplying Russia with critical items for its military. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko threatened war if Russia attempts to annex Belarus. South Korea is threatening to arm Ukraine in response to North Korea's support for Russia. Putin hosted the BRICS summit in Russia, praising its role as a counterbalance to the West's "perverse methods", and pushing for the creation of a new payment system as an alternative to the SWIFT network. Israel launched a retaliatory strike on Iran.
Russia's War in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine continues to be a major concern for businesses and investors, with the conflict entering its 975th day and Russian forces suffering record casualty rates. North Korean troops are moving towards the frontline, posing a significant threat to Ukraine's defence. Vladimir Putin is pulling Kim Jong Un deeper into the war, revealing a weakness in the Kremlin's ability to recruit troops at home. North Korea's infusion of fresh soldiers will remain practically risk-free for Pyongyang, unless the United States returns to its aggressive sanctions posture against the Kim regime. Russia is no stranger to employing foreign armies, with Cossack warriors famously fighting for the tsars in centuries past and the Red Army bolstering its ranks with Mongolian troops when it invaded China at the end of World War II. Today, the "TikTok soldiers" of Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov are scattered across Ukraine's front lines.
After nearly three years of fighting, Putin is running low on cannon fodder. The Kremlin is finding it difficult and expensive to entice more of Russia's poor and desperate to sign up for the war, even with promises of bonuses and good pay. In theory, Moscow could force millions of its fighting-age men into the Ukrainian meat grinder through conscription, but this option is politically perilous. The Putin regime discovered the dangers of the draft when it briefly attempted a "partial mobilization" in September 2022, with Russians responding with howls of opposition. The government quickly backed off of the effort, informing many that their call-up orders were issued by "mistake". Since then, Russia has relied on mercenary groups and lucrative payouts to make the "golden handshake" in exchange for military service in Ukraine. Even these enticements are proving to be insufficient for the Kremlin's manpower needs.
By providing fresh troops to Russia, North Korea will likely help to backfill some, but not all, of Moscow's gaps. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned the news is a "very, very serious issue", but cautioned that the precise contribution of Pyongyang's troops remained unknown. For the Kim regime, support for Russia has many strategic benefits and few risks. First, protection from United Nations sanctions. Russia has used its Security Council veto to repeatedly shield North Korea from international monitoring and penalties for its prohibited missile tests and nuclear weapons development. Second, a security guarantee from the world's largest nuclear power. This summer, Moscow and Pyongyang agreed to a NATO-style mutual defense pledge, promising to aid each other in the event of war. Third, North Korea's troops will gain valuable combat experience if they survive. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the Kim regime will likely benefit from Russian technology transfers that could greatly accelerate its missile and nuclear programs.
In exchange, the costs to North Korea are a pittance. An expeditionary force of roughly 12,000 soldiers is small potatoes compared to Kim's million-man army. His related shipments of around three million artillery shells to Russia is also a small fraction of his total stockpile. The danger to Ukraine is great, however, with a senior Ukrainian official stating that the addition of North Korean artillery on the battlefield has been "much worse than the Shaheds", the Iranian-designed kamikaze drones that Russia is using to pound Kyiv's troops and infrastructure.
Elon Musk's Alleged Ties with Vladimir Putin
Elon Musk is accused of having close ties with Vladimir Putin, withholding Starlink access from Taiwan as a favour to China. The Wall Street Journal reported that Putin asked Musk to withhold Starlink from Taiwan as a favour to China's Xi Jinping, with unnamed officials stating that Musk has been in regular contact with Putin since 2022. The Journal reported that in late 2023, Musk received his first request from the Kremlin to refrain from activating Starlink over Taiwan, citing a former Russian intelligence officer. The request was made for Beijing's sake, as Moscow increasingly relied on trade from China. Based on The Journal's findings, it's unclear exactly how many times Putin or his administration asked Musk for the favour.
The Chinese embassy in Washington told The Journal that it was not aware of the specifics of this arrangement, and did not respond to a separate request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider. Taiwan does not have official Starlink access because its laws require satellite services to be provided through a joint venture with a local operator that maintains majority ownership. The New York Times reported that SpaceX was unwilling to accept such an arrangement, and the self-governed island is thus creating its own low-earth orbit satellite network. Musk's reported conversations with Putin coincide with his apparent shift in rhetoric toward Ukraine in late 2022. Until that point, the billionaire had vocally supported Kyiv, providing it with 15,000 Starlink terminals.
In October of that year, he began seeking funding from the Pentagon to continue the free services, tweeting that they were taking a financial toll. Musk also tweeted a poll that month about a peace plan reflecting some of Russia's war demands at the time, including Russia's formal obtaining of Crimea and a guarantee of Ukraine's neutrality. The billionaire's post drew the fury of pro-Ukrainian accounts, but he added that he only suggested those measures to avoid further death in Ukraine and the risk of nuclear war. "Obviously, we are pro-Ukraine", he tweeted, saying that SpaceX had spent about $80 million on free Starlink for Ukraine. Two weeks later, Ian Bremmer, a political scientist who founded Eurasia Group, wrote in an email to his subscribers that Musk had spoken with Putin before tweeting this controversial peace plan. Per Bremmer, Putin had told Musk that if he could not accomplish his goals in Ukraine, he would turn to "major escalation". Musk and the Kremlin said Bremmer's report was untrue.
The allegations present awkward implications for the US, with Musk's SpaceX holding defense and space contracts with the Pentagon and NASA. An analysis published on Monday by The New York Times reported that the company has $3.6 billion in contracts with the Defense Department — primarily for launching American satellites into orbit — and $11.8 billion with NASA. Russian forces were reported to be buying up Starlink terminals earlier this year to help their invasion of Ukraine. The system has been vital to Ukrainian forces over the two-year conflict. But Russian agents are reportedly now using 'intermediaries' in Dubai in order to get their hands on the terminals, circumventing western sanctions imposed on Russia. House Democrats warned that Russia's use of the system in Ukraine could raise national security concerns in March. In a letter to SpaceX, two Democrats on the House Oversight Committee demanded information about Russia's potential illegal acquisition of the satellite-enabled terminals, according to the Washington Post. The letter cited recent allegations from Ukrainian intelligence officials, who say that Russian troops are using Starlink terminals to coordinate war efforts in eastern Ukraine, in potential violation of US sanctions.
As founder of SpaceX, Musk has cultivated close ties with US military and intelligence, with access to sensitive information. The company is the primary rocket launcher for both NASA and the Pentagon. Starlink has said it does not do any business in or with Russia, and Musk has branded claims of association with Putin "absurd". Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for the Kremlin, insisted neither Putin nor the Kremlin were in regular contact with Musk. Musk has not yet commented on the claims published in the WSJ. The Kremlin today slammed the claims in the WSJ report as "not true" and "absolutely false". While Beijing remains officially neutral on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it has supported Putin's claims that the war was provoked by western aggression. The US this month imposed its first sanctions on Chinese firms for making weapons for Russia, accusing them of collaborating with Russian defence firms to produce drones vital to the war effort.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Announces New Sanctions
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced new sanctions targeting secondary entities in countries supplying Russia with critical items for its military. Yellen told world financial leaders gathered in Washington for annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank that "We will unveil strong new sanctions targeting those facilitating the Kremlin's war machine, including intermediaries in third countries that are supplying Russia with critical inputs for its military". The IMF and World Bank meetings mark the last major international finance gathering to be held during President Joe Biden's administration and come as the state of the economy and inflation are top concerns for American voters. The presidential election between the Republican party nominee, former President Donald Trump, and Democratic party nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is slated to be decided on November 5, with the outcome expected to have an enormous impact on global finance and the world's economy.
Yellen touched on the use of the proceeds from frozen Russian sovereign assets to provide loans for Ukraine. As she spoke, the European Parliament approved a loan of up to 35 billion euros ($38 billion) for Ukraine's defense and reconstruction that will be repaid using future revenues from Russian central bank assets frozen abroad. Yellen referred to the overall $50 billion loan package being negotiated by the Group of Seven and EU allies, saying the United States expects to be able to contribute $20 billion. The U.S. Treasury Department is "working tirelessly to unlock the economic value of frozen Russian sovereign assets to aid Ukraine", Yellen said. Earlier on October 22, Britain announced its readiness to provide Ukraine with a loan of<co: 2>Earlier on October 22, Britain announced its readiness to provide Ukraine with a loan of
Further Reading:
As North Korea, Iran and China support Russia’s war, is a ‘new axis’ emerging? - CNN
If South Korea decides to get involved in Ukraine, it has powerful options - Business Insider
Israel launches retaliatory strike on Iran - Financial Times
Lukashenko warns of war if Russia attempts to annex Belarus - RBC-Ukraine
North Korea’s troops reveal Putin’s Ukraine pickle — no more cannon fodder - New York Post
Putin 'asked Elon Musk to switch off internet over Taiwan as a favour to China' - Daily Mail
Vance says it is Ukraine's decision to end the war - NBC News
Vladimir Putin signals North Korean troops are in Russia - Financial Times
Themes around the World:
Tariff Volatility and Litigation
U.S. tariff policy remains highly disruptive as Section 122 measures, Section 232 metals duties, and court challenges create pricing uncertainty. Importers face higher landed costs, refund complexity, and shifting compliance burdens that complicate sourcing, contract negotiations, and investment planning.
Labor Shortages Disrupt Operations
Japan’s structural labor shortages are intensifying operational strain, especially after the suspension of new foreign food-service worker visas near the 50,000 quota cap. Companies face higher wage pressure, constrained expansion, reduced operating hours, and stronger incentives to automate and redesign staffing models.
Five-Year Plan Favors Industry
China’s new 2026–2030 Five-Year Plan emphasizes innovation, advanced manufacturing and industrial upgrading over a decisive consumption-led rebalancing. That supports strategic sectors, but also reinforces overcapacity concerns, intensifies foreign competition and shapes investment opportunities toward state-backed technology, energy and advanced industrial ecosystems.
UK-EU Regulatory Re-alignment
London is moving toward dynamic alignment with selected EU rules, especially food, emissions and automotive standards, to cut post-Brexit friction. A proposed food and drink deal worth £5.1 billion annually could ease border costs, but shifting compliance requirements will reshape market-entry strategies.
Customs Modernization Border Frictions
Customs reforms are improving transparency, but border queues, weak crossing infrastructure, and longer clearance times still disrupt supply chains. Customs generated 22% of Q1 budget revenue, while average clearance rose to 6.9 hours and contraband increased to 17%.
Buy Canadian Industrial Policy
Federal and provincial Buy Canadian procurement measures are reshaping market access and supplier strategies, while drawing U.S. criticism before CUSMA talks. The policy supports domestic manufacturing, defence and construction, but may increase compliance burdens and bilateral friction.
Critical Minerals Diversification Drive
Japan is accelerating diversification away from Chinese rare earth dependence through new partnerships with France, the United States, Australia, and others. Securing dysprosium, terbium, and other inputs is increasingly important for EVs, electronics, wind equipment, and advanced manufacturing resilience.
Manufacturing Reshoring Still Uneven
Despite aggressive tariff policy, U.S. reshoring results remain mixed. The goods trade deficit with China fell 32% to $202 billion in 2025, yet manufacturing jobs reportedly declined by 91,000, suggesting higher input costs and policy volatility still constrain durable industrial investment.
Nearshoring Accelerates to Mexico
U.S. trade policy is accelerating nearshoring and regionalization, especially toward Mexico and North America. Logistics firms report rising cross-border demand, more use of bonded and Foreign Trade Zone facilities, and redesign of distribution networks as companies seek resilience against policy and sourcing shocks.
Industrial Capacity and Hiring Constraints
France’s strategic sectors are expanding output, but labor availability is becoming a bottleneck. Defense alone may require around 100,000 hires by 2030, while firms such as Dassault are raising production. Recruitment strain could delay projects, increase wages and disrupt supplier execution.
Housing Weakness and Debt Drag
Housing markets remain split: Toronto and Vancouver prices are falling while Quebec and Atlantic regions stay firmer. High household debt, softer consumer confidence, and elevated mortgage sensitivity are constraining spending, commercial activity, and real estate-linked investment decisions across major urban markets.
Tourism Slowdown Hits Services
Tourism receipts fell 2.1% month on month as fewer long-haul visitors arrived, with business groups warning arrivals could drop by one million over three months. Softer services demand can weaken domestic consumption, labor markets, and operating conditions for consumer-facing sectors.
External Buffers and Debt Management
Foreign reserves rose to $52.83 billion in March, while authorities aim to cut external debt and reduce arrears to foreign energy partners from $6.5 billion to near zero. Stronger buffers improve payment reliability, but refinancing risk still warrants monitoring.
FDI Reform and Incentive Push
Authorities are pursuing an omnibus investment law to simplify approvals and attract foreign capital, while BOI-backed projects are shifting into data centres, clean energy, infrastructure, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. Faster reform could improve Thailand’s competitiveness against Vietnam and regional peers.
Export Market Access Pressure
Thailand faces US tariff investigation risks and potential trade diversion in Europe as the EU-India FTA advances. With exports to the EU worth US$26.4 billion and bilateral EU trade at US$45.03 billion, pressure is rising to accelerate Thailand’s own trade agreements.
Manufacturing Labor Disruption Threat
Samsung Electronics faces a potential 18-day strike from May 21 to June 7 amid a dispute over bonuses and labor practices. Any disruption at major semiconductor campuses would reverberate through electronics supply chains, affecting delivery schedules, client confidence, and downstream global manufacturers.
US Trade Pact Recalibration
India-US trade talks have reset after Washington imposed a temporary 10% tariff on all countries, eroding India’s earlier advantage. Ongoing Section 301 probes add compliance risk, making tariff outcomes and market-access terms critical for exporters, sourcing strategies, and investment planning.
China dependence deepens further
Brazil’s trade is pivoting further toward China. March exports to China rose 17.8% to US$10.49 billion, generating a US$3.826 billion surplus, while quarterly exports climbed 21.7%. The trend supports commodities and agribusiness, but heightens concentration risk and exposure to Chinese demand shifts.
FDI Competitiveness and Repatriation
Despite strong gross inflows, net FDI stayed negative for a fifth straight month in January 2026 at minus $1.39 billion, as repatriation and disinvestment surged to $4.92 billion. Competition from Vietnam, Mexico, and Poland sharpens pressure to improve tax certainty and execution.
Inflation and Slow Growth Squeeze
Mexico’s macro backdrop is becoming less supportive for business. March inflation accelerated to 4.59%, above target, while analysts highlight weak growth and cautious monetary easing. Rising fuel and food costs could pressure wages, consumer demand, financing conditions and operating margins in 2026.
LNG Pivot Faces Bottlenecks
Russia is shifting LNG exports from Europe toward Asia, but vessel shortages, sanctions and longer voyages are limiting execution. Analysts estimate full diversion would cut Yamal shipments to roughly 120-130 annually, from around 270, raising delivery and revenue risks.
Industrial Policy Turns More Active
Ottawa is moving toward a more interventionist industrial strategy centered on value-added production, local-content procurement, strategic sectors, and supply-chain resilience. This may create incentives in clean technology, aerospace, defense, and processing, but also introduces policy complexity and procurement-related trade frictions.
Rare Earths and Critical Inputs
U.S. trade officials have stressed the need to preserve access to Chinese rare earth minerals even as tariffs remain in place. This exposes manufacturers to concentrated upstream dependency in magnets and advanced components, making stockpiling, supplier diversification, and geopolitical contingency planning increasingly important.
Energy Import Dependence Risks
Higher oil and gas costs, petroleum import financing needs, and Egypt’s shift toward greater gas import dependence are increasing external vulnerability. Energy-intensive sectors face margin pressure, while manufacturers and logistics operators remain exposed to fuel pricing, power costs, and supply interruptions.
Regional Trade Frictions Inside SACU
Import restrictions by Namibia, Botswana and Mozambique on South African produce are disrupting regional food supply chains and undermining SACU and AfCFTA commitments. With 17% of South Africa’s $15.1 billion agricultural exports going to SACU in 2025, policy unpredictability is rising.
Tax Digitization Tightens Enforcement
India is intensifying GST and income-tax enforcement through e-invoicing expansion, AI-led reconciliation, and cross-platform data matching. Businesses face greater scrutiny of sales reporting, input credits, and cash activity, increasing the importance of robust internal controls, digital systems, and proactive compliance management.
Strong Growth Faces External Shocks
Vietnam’s Q1 GDP grew 7.83%, but inflation reached 4.65% in March and external risks are intensifying. U.S. trade tensions, higher energy costs, and logistics disruption could squeeze manufacturers, weaken demand visibility, and complicate planning for investors and importers.
Weather Disrupts Mining Logistics
Persistent heavy rain, humidity near 99%, and lower ore grades in key mining areas such as Morowali and Halmahera are slowing extraction, drying and transport. These operational constraints tighten feedstock availability and raise delivery risks for metals, smelters and exporters.
Balochistan Security and Project Risk
Escalating insurgent attacks in Balochistan are directly affecting strategic assets including Gwadar and the Reko Diq mining project. The violence heightens operational, insurance, and personnel-security risks for investors, threatening logistics corridors, minerals development, and infrastructure projects linked to external partners.
Water Infrastructure Systemic Failure
Water insecurity is becoming a material business risk, especially in Gauteng and smaller municipalities. Nearly half of treated water is lost before delivery, 64% of wastewater works are critical, and recurring outages are driving higher private backup, compliance and operating costs.
Rare earth leverage risk
China’s export licensing for rare earths and related materials has become a major commercial vulnerability. With China controlling roughly 60% of mining, above 90% of refining, and about 95% of permanent magnet production, downstream manufacturers face acute disruption risk.
West Bank settlement escalation
Approval of 34 new West Bank settlements heightens geopolitical, sanctions and reputational risk for foreign companies. The move increases prospects of international scrutiny, compliance complications and stakeholder pressure, especially for firms exposed to infrastructure, finance or land-linked activities in contested areas.
China Tech Controls Tighten
Washington is deepening export controls and investment restrictions tied to semiconductors and strategic technologies, especially vis-à-vis China. Proposed MATCH Act measures and broader licensing requirements could reconfigure electronics supply chains, complicate allied coordination, and increase compliance burdens for multinationals.
Oil export rerouting constraints
Saudi Arabia is redirecting crude through Yanbu and the East-West pipeline, with Red Sea exports reported near 4.6 million bpd and pipeline capacity around 7 million bpd. This cushions disruption, but capacity limits still constrain energy trade flows.
Oil Export Infrastructure Disruption
Ukrainian drone strikes on Primorsk and Ust-Luga have shut or constrained up to 20-40% of Russia’s oil export capacity, cutting weekly flows by 1.75 million bpd. The disruption raises delivery risk, rerouting costs, insurance premiums, and volatility for energy buyers and shippers.
Severe Macroeconomic Instability
Inflation is running near 50% officially, with some warnings of far higher wartime acceleration, while the rial has sharply depreciated. This undermines pricing, wage planning, procurement and demand forecasting, and raises counterparty, payroll and working-capital risks for any business exposure.