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Mission Grey Daily Brief - October 26, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The war in Ukraine continues to dominate global affairs, with North Korean troops moving towards the frontline and Russian forces suffering record casualty rates. Elon Musk is accused of having close ties with Vladimir Putin, withholding Starlink access from Taiwan as a favour to China. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced new sanctions targeting secondary entities in countries supplying Russia with critical items for its military. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko threatened war if Russia attempts to annex Belarus. South Korea is threatening to arm Ukraine in response to North Korea's support for Russia. Putin hosted the BRICS summit in Russia, praising its role as a counterbalance to the West's "perverse methods", and pushing for the creation of a new payment system as an alternative to the SWIFT network. Israel launched a retaliatory strike on Iran.

Russia's War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine continues to be a major concern for businesses and investors, with the conflict entering its 975th day and Russian forces suffering record casualty rates. North Korean troops are moving towards the frontline, posing a significant threat to Ukraine's defence. Vladimir Putin is pulling Kim Jong Un deeper into the war, revealing a weakness in the Kremlin's ability to recruit troops at home. North Korea's infusion of fresh soldiers will remain practically risk-free for Pyongyang, unless the United States returns to its aggressive sanctions posture against the Kim regime. Russia is no stranger to employing foreign armies, with Cossack warriors famously fighting for the tsars in centuries past and the Red Army bolstering its ranks with Mongolian troops when it invaded China at the end of World War II. Today, the "TikTok soldiers" of Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov are scattered across Ukraine's front lines.

After nearly three years of fighting, Putin is running low on cannon fodder. The Kremlin is finding it difficult and expensive to entice more of Russia's poor and desperate to sign up for the war, even with promises of bonuses and good pay. In theory, Moscow could force millions of its fighting-age men into the Ukrainian meat grinder through conscription, but this option is politically perilous. The Putin regime discovered the dangers of the draft when it briefly attempted a "partial mobilization" in September 2022, with Russians responding with howls of opposition. The government quickly backed off of the effort, informing many that their call-up orders were issued by "mistake". Since then, Russia has relied on mercenary groups and lucrative payouts to make the "golden handshake" in exchange for military service in Ukraine. Even these enticements are proving to be insufficient for the Kremlin's manpower needs.

By providing fresh troops to Russia, North Korea will likely help to backfill some, but not all, of Moscow's gaps. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned the news is a "very, very serious issue", but cautioned that the precise contribution of Pyongyang's troops remained unknown. For the Kim regime, support for Russia has many strategic benefits and few risks. First, protection from United Nations sanctions. Russia has used its Security Council veto to repeatedly shield North Korea from international monitoring and penalties for its prohibited missile tests and nuclear weapons development. Second, a security guarantee from the world's largest nuclear power. This summer, Moscow and Pyongyang agreed to a NATO-style mutual defense pledge, promising to aid each other in the event of war. Third, North Korea's troops will gain valuable combat experience if they survive. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the Kim regime will likely benefit from Russian technology transfers that could greatly accelerate its missile and nuclear programs.

In exchange, the costs to North Korea are a pittance. An expeditionary force of roughly 12,000 soldiers is small potatoes compared to Kim's million-man army. His related shipments of around three million artillery shells to Russia is also a small fraction of his total stockpile. The danger to Ukraine is great, however, with a senior Ukrainian official stating that the addition of North Korean artillery on the battlefield has been "much worse than the Shaheds", the Iranian-designed kamikaze drones that Russia is using to pound Kyiv's troops and infrastructure.

Elon Musk's Alleged Ties with Vladimir Putin

Elon Musk is accused of having close ties with Vladimir Putin, withholding Starlink access from Taiwan as a favour to China. The Wall Street Journal reported that Putin asked Musk to withhold Starlink from Taiwan as a favour to China's Xi Jinping, with unnamed officials stating that Musk has been in regular contact with Putin since 2022. The Journal reported that in late 2023, Musk received his first request from the Kremlin to refrain from activating Starlink over Taiwan, citing a former Russian intelligence officer. The request was made for Beijing's sake, as Moscow increasingly relied on trade from China. Based on The Journal's findings, it's unclear exactly how many times Putin or his administration asked Musk for the favour.

The Chinese embassy in Washington told The Journal that it was not aware of the specifics of this arrangement, and did not respond to a separate request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider. Taiwan does not have official Starlink access because its laws require satellite services to be provided through a joint venture with a local operator that maintains majority ownership. The New York Times reported that SpaceX was unwilling to accept such an arrangement, and the self-governed island is thus creating its own low-earth orbit satellite network. Musk's reported conversations with Putin coincide with his apparent shift in rhetoric toward Ukraine in late 2022. Until that point, the billionaire had vocally supported Kyiv, providing it with 15,000 Starlink terminals.

In October of that year, he began seeking funding from the Pentagon to continue the free services, tweeting that they were taking a financial toll. Musk also tweeted a poll that month about a peace plan reflecting some of Russia's war demands at the time, including Russia's formal obtaining of Crimea and a guarantee of Ukraine's neutrality. The billionaire's post drew the fury of pro-Ukrainian accounts, but he added that he only suggested those measures to avoid further death in Ukraine and the risk of nuclear war. "Obviously, we are pro-Ukraine", he tweeted, saying that SpaceX had spent about $80 million on free Starlink for Ukraine. Two weeks later, Ian Bremmer, a political scientist who founded Eurasia Group, wrote in an email to his subscribers that Musk had spoken with Putin before tweeting this controversial peace plan. Per Bremmer, Putin had told Musk that if he could not accomplish his goals in Ukraine, he would turn to "major escalation". Musk and the Kremlin said Bremmer's report was untrue.

The allegations present awkward implications for the US, with Musk's SpaceX holding defense and space contracts with the Pentagon and NASA. An analysis published on Monday by The New York Times reported that the company has $3.6 billion in contracts with the Defense Department — primarily for launching American satellites into orbit — and $11.8 billion with NASA. Russian forces were reported to be buying up Starlink terminals earlier this year to help their invasion of Ukraine. The system has been vital to Ukrainian forces over the two-year conflict. But Russian agents are reportedly now using 'intermediaries' in Dubai in order to get their hands on the terminals, circumventing western sanctions imposed on Russia. House Democrats warned that Russia's use of the system in Ukraine could raise national security concerns in March. In a letter to SpaceX, two Democrats on the House Oversight Committee demanded information about Russia's potential illegal acquisition of the satellite-enabled terminals, according to the Washington Post. The letter cited recent allegations from Ukrainian intelligence officials, who say that Russian troops are using Starlink terminals to coordinate war efforts in eastern Ukraine, in potential violation of US sanctions.

As founder of SpaceX, Musk has cultivated close ties with US military and intelligence, with access to sensitive information. The company is the primary rocket launcher for both NASA and the Pentagon. Starlink has said it does not do any business in or with Russia, and Musk has branded claims of association with Putin "absurd". Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for the Kremlin, insisted neither Putin nor the Kremlin were in regular contact with Musk. Musk has not yet commented on the claims published in the WSJ. The Kremlin today slammed the claims in the WSJ report as "not true" and "absolutely false". While Beijing remains officially neutral on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it has supported Putin's claims that the war was provoked by western aggression. The US this month imposed its first sanctions on Chinese firms for making weapons for Russia, accusing them of collaborating with Russian defence firms to produce drones vital to the war effort.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Announces New Sanctions

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced new sanctions targeting secondary entities in countries supplying Russia with critical items for its military. Yellen told world financial leaders gathered in Washington for annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank that "We will unveil strong new sanctions targeting those facilitating the Kremlin's war machine, including intermediaries in third countries that are supplying Russia with critical inputs for its military". The IMF and World Bank meetings mark the last major international finance gathering to be held during President Joe Biden's administration and come as the state of the economy and inflation are top concerns for American voters. The presidential election between the Republican party nominee, former President Donald Trump, and Democratic party nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is slated to be decided on November 5, with the outcome expected to have an enormous impact on global finance and the world's economy.

Yellen touched on the use of the proceeds from frozen Russian sovereign assets to provide loans for Ukraine. As she spoke, the European Parliament approved a loan of up to 35 billion euros ($38 billion) for Ukraine's defense and reconstruction that will be repaid using future revenues from Russian central bank assets frozen abroad. Yellen referred to the overall $50 billion loan package being negotiated by the Group of Seven and EU allies, saying the United States expects to be able to contribute $20 billion. The U.S. Treasury Department is "working tirelessly to unlock the economic value of frozen Russian sovereign assets to aid Ukraine", Yellen said. Earlier on October 22, Britain announced its readiness to provide Ukraine with a loan of<co: 2>Earlier on October 22, Britain announced its readiness to provide Ukraine with a loan of


Further Reading:

As North Korea, Iran and China support Russia’s war, is a ‘new axis’ emerging? - CNN

If South Korea decides to get involved in Ukraine, it has powerful options - Business Insider

Israel launches retaliatory strike on Iran - Financial Times

Lukashenko warns of war if Russia attempts to annex Belarus - RBC-Ukraine

MEPs Denounce Azerbaijan's Rights Violations Ahead Of Key Conference - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

North Korea’s troops reveal Putin’s Ukraine pickle — no more cannon fodder - New York Post

Putin 'asked Elon Musk to switch off internet over Taiwan as a favour to China' - Daily Mail

Putin hosts growing BRICS alliance in Russia, touting it as an alternative to the West's "perverse methods" - CBS News

Putin once asked Elon Musk to not activate Starlink over Taiwan as a favor to Xi Jinping: report - Business Insider

Russo-Ukrainian War, day 975: Russian forces suffer record casualty rates as North Korean troops move towards the frontline - Euromaidan Press

Ukraine calls on North Korean soldiers to surrender and promises safety, food and medical care - Euronews

Vance says it is Ukraine's decision to end the war - NBC News

Vladimir Putin signals North Korean troops are in Russia - Financial Times

Themes around the World:

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Privatization and PPP Expansion

Saudi Arabia’s new National Privatization Strategy targets over 220 PPP contracts and $64 billion in private investment by 2030. This broadens opportunities for foreign investors in infrastructure, transport, water, and health, while increasing private sector participation and competition.

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Geopolitical Realignment and Western Coordination

The Ukraine crisis is accelerating Europe’s push for strategic autonomy and closer EU-US cooperation. Ongoing trilateral talks (Ukraine, US, Russia) and evolving security architectures are influencing investment climates, regulatory frameworks, and the broader geopolitical risk environment for business.

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Reconstruction-driven infrastructure demand

Three years after the 2023 quakes, authorities report 455,000 housing/commercial units delivered, while multilateral lenders like EBRD invested €2.7bn in 2025, including wastewater and sewage projects. Construction, materials, logistics and engineering opportunities remain, with execution and procurement risks.

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Labor Market Transformation and Data Challenges

Saudi Arabia has doubled women’s labor participation and created 800,000 jobs, but conflicting labor data and rising unemployment rates raise concerns about policy effectiveness and workforce sustainability. Reliable labor statistics are critical for business planning and investment decisions.

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Palm waste export restrictions

President Prabowo announced a ban on exporting used cooking oil and palm waste to prioritize domestic aviation fuel and biofuel ambitions. The move may tighten regional feedstock availability, disrupt traders’ supply contracts, and increase regulatory risk in Indonesia’s palm-based derivative exports.

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Large infrastructure pipeline execution

Sheinbaum’s 2026–2030 plan targets roughly MXN 5.6–5.9 trillion (about $323B) across 1,500 projects, heavily weighted to energy, rail and roads, plus ports. If delivered, it improves logistics; execution, funding structure and procurement transparency remain key risks.

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Tightened Foreign Investment and Land Rules

Japan is intensifying scrutiny of large-scale land acquisitions and raising barriers for foreign business visas, requiring higher capital and stricter compliance. These changes aim to protect national interests but may deter smaller foreign investors and impact market entry strategies.

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Long-term LNG security push

Utilities are locking in fuel amid rising power demand from data centers and AI. QatarEnergy signed a 27‑year deal to supply JERA about 3 mtpa from 2028; Mitsui is nearing an equity stake in North Field South (16 mtpa, ~$17.5bn). Destination clauses affect flexibility.

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India-UK Free Trade Agreement Impact

The recently signed UK-India trade deal grants Indian exporters duty-free access for 99% of products and is projected to boost UK-India trade by £25.5 billion annually. This agreement diversifies UK supply chains and reduces reliance on US and EU markets.

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Shadow fleet interdictions and safety

France’s boarding of the GRINCH and allied moves to seize or detain shadow‑fleet tankers signal a shift from monitoring to physical enforcement. Aging, falsely flagged ships elevate spill, detention and force‑majeure risk for shippers, insurers, and terminals.

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Escalating Western Sanctions Enforcement

Western powers have intensified enforcement of sanctions on Russian oil exports, including direct maritime interdictions and seizures of shadow fleet tankers. This escalation increases legal, operational, and reputational risks for businesses involved in Russian energy logistics or trade, and heightens global supply chain volatility.

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Shifting Patterns in Foreign Investment

Foreign direct investment in China fell 9.5% in 2025, reflecting investor caution amid regulatory tightening and geopolitical friction. However, select countries like Switzerland and the UAE increased their stakes, highlighting nuanced opportunities and the need for market-specific strategies.

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Renewable Energy Policy Uncertainty

Despite record renewable capacity additions, delays in France’s energy roadmap and stalled projects undermine investor confidence and threaten jobs. Continued dependence on imported fossil fuels (70% of energy needs) exposes France to geopolitical shocks and energy price volatility.

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Green Transition and Sustainable Investment Projects

Major projects like the $4.2 billion Giza waste-to-biofuel facility highlight Egypt’s commitment to green growth and the circular economy. Such initiatives create new investment opportunities, support job creation, and align with global sustainability standards, attracting ESG-focused investors.

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Supply Chain Disruption and Resilience Imperatives

Australian supply chains face persistent disruption from geopolitical fragmentation, labor shortages, and shifting trade rules. Recent surveys show a strategic divide among leaders, with resilience, diversification, and digital transformation emerging as top priorities for international business continuity.

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Private Sector Role in Recovery and Innovation

Major global firms and financial institutions, including BlackRock, are actively shaping Ukraine’s recovery strategy. The focus is on mobilizing private capital, modernizing infrastructure, and fostering innovation, especially in energy and technology, despite ongoing operational risks from conflict.

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Energy Sector Reform and Pemex Strategy

Mexico is investing $323 billion in energy and infrastructure through 2030, with Pemex targeting 1.8 million barrels daily and expanding natural gas. Reforms focus on debt reduction, domestic refining, and attracting private capital, but Pemex’s financial health remains a concern.

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Stable Growth and Investment Climate

President Prabowo projects economic growth above 5% with low inflation, driven by industrialization and the new sovereign wealth fund Danantara. The government is rationalizing state-owned enterprises and courting foreign investors, enhancing Indonesia’s appeal as a stable investment destination.

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Tech export controls tighten supply

Expanded controls on AI chips, advanced semiconductors, and tooling constrain sales into China and other sensitive markets, while raising compliance burdens worldwide. Firms must redesign products, segment customer access, and harden end‑use diligence to avoid penalties and sudden shipment stoppages.

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Gaza Conflict Drives Regional Instability

The ongoing conflict in Gaza and Israel’s military operations have resulted in persistent regional instability, affecting supply chains, humanitarian access, and investor sentiment. Ceasefire agreements remain fragile, and reconstruction is tied to complex security and governance conditions, impacting trade and operations.

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Infrastructure Investment and Bottlenecks

Vietnam plans to secure $5.5 billion in foreign loans for infrastructure in 2026 and aims for $38 billion by 2030. However, persistent bottlenecks in land clearance, project approval, and disbursement threaten timely delivery, impacting logistics, FDI, and supply chain efficiency.

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Rising Role in Global Supply Chains

Indonesia has emerged as a major beneficiary of global supply chain diversification, with U.S. imports from Indonesia rising 34% in 2025. This shift, driven by U.S.-China trade tensions, positions Indonesia as a key sourcing hub for international manufacturers.

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USMCA Renegotiation and Trade Uncertainty

The 2026 review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA/CUSMA) introduces significant uncertainty for Canadian exporters and investors. Rising US protectionism and threats to terminate the agreement could disrupt North American supply chains and alter market access for key sectors.

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Geopolitical Realignment and US Tensions

South Africa’s closer military and economic ties with China, Russia, and Iran, including recent BRICS naval exercises, have strained US relations. This risks new US tariffs—potentially up to 55%—on key exports, threatening supply chains, trade access, and investment certainty.

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China trade détente, geopolitical scrutiny

Canada’s partial tariff reset with China (notably EV quotas and agri tariff relief) improves market access for canola/seafood but heightens U.S. concerns about transshipment and “non-market economy” links. Expect tighter investment screening, procurement scrutiny, and reputational due diligence.

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Political Gridlock on Defense and Security

Taiwan’s $40 billion defense budget faces parliamentary opposition, raising concerns about its deterrence capabilities amid rising Chinese military activity. Political divisions could impact defense procurement, foreign confidence, and overall security stability.

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Logistics Modernization and 3PL Expansion

Mexico’s third-party logistics (3PL) market is forecast to nearly double to $26.8 billion by 2033, driven by nearshoring, e-commerce, and infrastructure investment. Enhanced customs coordination, digitalization, and cross-border logistics partnerships are improving supply chain efficiency and supporting regional integration.

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Canada’s Strategic Pivot Toward China

Canada’s landmark trade deal with China lowers tariffs on Chinese EVs and Canadian agricultural exports, signaling a diversification away from US reliance. This recalibration aims to unlock $3 billion in exports but risks US retaliation and complicates future North American trade negotiations.

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Japan-China Relations and Geopolitical Tensions

Japan’s hardening stance on Taiwan and maritime disputes in the East China Sea have strained relations with China, resulting in economic retaliation and heightened security risks. These tensions complicate trade, investment, and supply chain operations for international businesses with exposure to both markets.

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Port attacks disrupt Black Sea

Repeated strikes on Odesa-area ports and logistics assets are cutting export earnings by about US$1bn in early 2026 and reducing grain shipment capacity by 20–30%. Higher freight, insurance, and rerouting to rail constrain metals and agrifood supply chains.

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Rapid Digital and Green Transformation

Thailand is prioritizing digital infrastructure, data centers, and green industries to support its economic transformation. Major investments in technology and sustainability are designed to position the country as a regional innovation hub, but require significant upgrades in talent and regulatory frameworks.

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Critical Infrastructure and Energy Upgrades

Taiwan is investing in power grid upgrades, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure to support its expanding high-tech and data center sectors. These initiatives are vital for business continuity, supply chain reliability, and long-term competitiveness.

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Political Stability Amid Global Tensions

Brazil’s diversified international relations and diplomatic tradition help mitigate risks from external interference, notably from the US. Political stability and global leadership ambitions support a favorable environment for long-term investment and trade strategies.

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Border and neighbor-country trade disruptions

Thai-Cambodian tensions and Myanmar instability create episodic border closures, rerouting costs, and inventory risk for agribusiness and manufacturers. Myanmar’s reduced FX conversion requirement (15%) may help liquidity, but security and import controls still threaten cross-border trade reliability.

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IMF and EU funding conditionality

Ukraine risks losing over US$115bn linked to IMF ‘benchmarks’ and the EU Ukraine Facility if reforms slip, including customs leadership and public investment management. Any delays could tighten liquidity, slow public payments, and postpone infrastructure and supplier contracts.

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Inflation, Consumer Spending, and Market Sentiment

Tariffs and policy uncertainty have contributed to persistent inflation above the Fed’s target, uneven consumer spending, and heightened market volatility. Wealthier groups continue robust spending, but broader sentiment remains cautious, influencing retail and investment strategies.