Mission Grey Daily Brief - October 26, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The war in Ukraine continues to dominate global affairs, with North Korean troops moving towards the frontline and Russian forces suffering record casualty rates. Elon Musk is accused of having close ties with Vladimir Putin, withholding Starlink access from Taiwan as a favour to China. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced new sanctions targeting secondary entities in countries supplying Russia with critical items for its military. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko threatened war if Russia attempts to annex Belarus. South Korea is threatening to arm Ukraine in response to North Korea's support for Russia. Putin hosted the BRICS summit in Russia, praising its role as a counterbalance to the West's "perverse methods", and pushing for the creation of a new payment system as an alternative to the SWIFT network. Israel launched a retaliatory strike on Iran.

Russia's War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine continues to be a major concern for businesses and investors, with the conflict entering its 975th day and Russian forces suffering record casualty rates. North Korean troops are moving towards the frontline, posing a significant threat to Ukraine's defence. Vladimir Putin is pulling Kim Jong Un deeper into the war, revealing a weakness in the Kremlin's ability to recruit troops at home. North Korea's infusion of fresh soldiers will remain practically risk-free for Pyongyang, unless the United States returns to its aggressive sanctions posture against the Kim regime. Russia is no stranger to employing foreign armies, with Cossack warriors famously fighting for the tsars in centuries past and the Red Army bolstering its ranks with Mongolian troops when it invaded China at the end of World War II. Today, the "TikTok soldiers" of Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov are scattered across Ukraine's front lines.

After nearly three years of fighting, Putin is running low on cannon fodder. The Kremlin is finding it difficult and expensive to entice more of Russia's poor and desperate to sign up for the war, even with promises of bonuses and good pay. In theory, Moscow could force millions of its fighting-age men into the Ukrainian meat grinder through conscription, but this option is politically perilous. The Putin regime discovered the dangers of the draft when it briefly attempted a "partial mobilization" in September 2022, with Russians responding with howls of opposition. The government quickly backed off of the effort, informing many that their call-up orders were issued by "mistake". Since then, Russia has relied on mercenary groups and lucrative payouts to make the "golden handshake" in exchange for military service in Ukraine. Even these enticements are proving to be insufficient for the Kremlin's manpower needs.

By providing fresh troops to Russia, North Korea will likely help to backfill some, but not all, of Moscow's gaps. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned the news is a "very, very serious issue", but cautioned that the precise contribution of Pyongyang's troops remained unknown. For the Kim regime, support for Russia has many strategic benefits and few risks. First, protection from United Nations sanctions. Russia has used its Security Council veto to repeatedly shield North Korea from international monitoring and penalties for its prohibited missile tests and nuclear weapons development. Second, a security guarantee from the world's largest nuclear power. This summer, Moscow and Pyongyang agreed to a NATO-style mutual defense pledge, promising to aid each other in the event of war. Third, North Korea's troops will gain valuable combat experience if they survive. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the Kim regime will likely benefit from Russian technology transfers that could greatly accelerate its missile and nuclear programs.

In exchange, the costs to North Korea are a pittance. An expeditionary force of roughly 12,000 soldiers is small potatoes compared to Kim's million-man army. His related shipments of around three million artillery shells to Russia is also a small fraction of his total stockpile. The danger to Ukraine is great, however, with a senior Ukrainian official stating that the addition of North Korean artillery on the battlefield has been "much worse than the Shaheds", the Iranian-designed kamikaze drones that Russia is using to pound Kyiv's troops and infrastructure.

Elon Musk's Alleged Ties with Vladimir Putin

Elon Musk is accused of having close ties with Vladimir Putin, withholding Starlink access from Taiwan as a favour to China. The Wall Street Journal reported that Putin asked Musk to withhold Starlink from Taiwan as a favour to China's Xi Jinping, with unnamed officials stating that Musk has been in regular contact with Putin since 2022. The Journal reported that in late 2023, Musk received his first request from the Kremlin to refrain from activating Starlink over Taiwan, citing a former Russian intelligence officer. The request was made for Beijing's sake, as Moscow increasingly relied on trade from China. Based on The Journal's findings, it's unclear exactly how many times Putin or his administration asked Musk for the favour.

The Chinese embassy in Washington told The Journal that it was not aware of the specifics of this arrangement, and did not respond to a separate request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider. Taiwan does not have official Starlink access because its laws require satellite services to be provided through a joint venture with a local operator that maintains majority ownership. The New York Times reported that SpaceX was unwilling to accept such an arrangement, and the self-governed island is thus creating its own low-earth orbit satellite network. Musk's reported conversations with Putin coincide with his apparent shift in rhetoric toward Ukraine in late 2022. Until that point, the billionaire had vocally supported Kyiv, providing it with 15,000 Starlink terminals.

In October of that year, he began seeking funding from the Pentagon to continue the free services, tweeting that they were taking a financial toll. Musk also tweeted a poll that month about a peace plan reflecting some of Russia's war demands at the time, including Russia's formal obtaining of Crimea and a guarantee of Ukraine's neutrality. The billionaire's post drew the fury of pro-Ukrainian accounts, but he added that he only suggested those measures to avoid further death in Ukraine and the risk of nuclear war. "Obviously, we are pro-Ukraine", he tweeted, saying that SpaceX had spent about $80 million on free Starlink for Ukraine. Two weeks later, Ian Bremmer, a political scientist who founded Eurasia Group, wrote in an email to his subscribers that Musk had spoken with Putin before tweeting this controversial peace plan. Per Bremmer, Putin had told Musk that if he could not accomplish his goals in Ukraine, he would turn to "major escalation". Musk and the Kremlin said Bremmer's report was untrue.

The allegations present awkward implications for the US, with Musk's SpaceX holding defense and space contracts with the Pentagon and NASA. An analysis published on Monday by The New York Times reported that the company has $3.6 billion in contracts with the Defense Department — primarily for launching American satellites into orbit — and $11.8 billion with NASA. Russian forces were reported to be buying up Starlink terminals earlier this year to help their invasion of Ukraine. The system has been vital to Ukrainian forces over the two-year conflict. But Russian agents are reportedly now using 'intermediaries' in Dubai in order to get their hands on the terminals, circumventing western sanctions imposed on Russia. House Democrats warned that Russia's use of the system in Ukraine could raise national security concerns in March. In a letter to SpaceX, two Democrats on the House Oversight Committee demanded information about Russia's potential illegal acquisition of the satellite-enabled terminals, according to the Washington Post. The letter cited recent allegations from Ukrainian intelligence officials, who say that Russian troops are using Starlink terminals to coordinate war efforts in eastern Ukraine, in potential violation of US sanctions.

As founder of SpaceX, Musk has cultivated close ties with US military and intelligence, with access to sensitive information. The company is the primary rocket launcher for both NASA and the Pentagon. Starlink has said it does not do any business in or with Russia, and Musk has branded claims of association with Putin "absurd". Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for the Kremlin, insisted neither Putin nor the Kremlin were in regular contact with Musk. Musk has not yet commented on the claims published in the WSJ. The Kremlin today slammed the claims in the WSJ report as "not true" and "absolutely false". While Beijing remains officially neutral on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it has supported Putin's claims that the war was provoked by western aggression. The US this month imposed its first sanctions on Chinese firms for making weapons for Russia, accusing them of collaborating with Russian defence firms to produce drones vital to the war effort.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Announces New Sanctions

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced new sanctions targeting secondary entities in countries supplying Russia with critical items for its military. Yellen told world financial leaders gathered in Washington for annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank that "We will unveil strong new sanctions targeting those facilitating the Kremlin's war machine, including intermediaries in third countries that are supplying Russia with critical inputs for its military". The IMF and World Bank meetings mark the last major international finance gathering to be held during President Joe Biden's administration and come as the state of the economy and inflation are top concerns for American voters. The presidential election between the Republican party nominee, former President Donald Trump, and Democratic party nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is slated to be decided on November 5, with the outcome expected to have an enormous impact on global finance and the world's economy.

Yellen touched on the use of the proceeds from frozen Russian sovereign assets to provide loans for Ukraine. As she spoke, the European Parliament approved a loan of up to 35 billion euros ($38 billion) for Ukraine's defense and reconstruction that will be repaid using future revenues from Russian central bank assets frozen abroad. Yellen referred to the overall $50 billion loan package being negotiated by the Group of Seven and EU allies, saying the United States expects to be able to contribute $20 billion. The U.S. Treasury Department is "working tirelessly to unlock the economic value of frozen Russian sovereign assets to aid Ukraine", Yellen said. Earlier on October 22, Britain announced its readiness to provide Ukraine with a loan of<co: 2>Earlier on October 22, Britain announced its readiness to provide Ukraine with a loan of

Themes around the World:

Expansion and Technological Advancement in 3PL Logistics

Brazil's third-party logistics (3PL) market is projected to grow at a 7.49% CAGR through 2033, fueled by outsourcing trends in manufacturing, retail, and e-commerce. Investments in automation, AI, IoT, and green logistics enhance supply chain efficiency and sustainability, positioning Brazil as a flexible and innovative logistics hub in Latin America.

Critical Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

Australia faces escalating threats to its critical infrastructure from geopolitical tensions, cyber attacks, supply chain disruptions, and physical sabotage. The interdependence of sectors like power, healthcare, and finance heightens systemic risks, necessitating adaptive risk management strategies to safeguard national security and economic stability amid a multipolar global environment.

Defense Technology Innovation

Israel’s defense tech sector is rapidly evolving, fueled by wartime innovation and supported by government-backed incubators. Despite international political pressures and boycotts, demand for Israeli defense technologies remains strong globally. This sector represents a critical growth area, attracting venture capital and driving technological advancements with dual-use applications beyond military contexts.

Local Elections and Political Landscape Impact

The November 2025 local and regional elections in Denmark could influence municipal and regional governance, affecting regulatory environments and public sector priorities. The sizeable foreign electorate's participation may shift political balances, with implications for policy continuity, business regulations, and investment climates ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections.

US Domestic Political and Economic Challenges

The US faces significant domestic risks including a prolonged government shutdown disrupting key operations, cybersecurity breaches targeting federal agencies, and widening wealth inequality. These factors contribute to political instability, policy uncertainty, and potential impacts on economic growth and market confidence.

Defense and Strategic Industry Investment

Takaichi's administration prioritizes increased defense spending and technological innovation, aligning with global trends of economic security and industrial self-reliance. This focus benefits defense contractors and tech firms, reshaping Japan's industrial landscape and supply chains, while attracting foreign direct investment in strategic sectors critical for national security and global competitiveness.

Economic Collapse and Sanctions Impact

Iran faces a severe economic crisis exacerbated by the reimposition of UN sanctions targeting its Central Bank and oil exports. The rial currency has plummeted to historic lows, inflation exceeds 40%, and the economy risks hyperinflation and recession. These conditions threaten social stability and complicate business operations, investment, and supply chain continuity.

Industrial Decline and Deindustrialization

Germany's industrial core, particularly machinery manufacturing, is experiencing a severe downturn with a 22% production slump since 2018. Rising energy costs, regulatory burdens, and weakening global demand have led to significant job losses and insolvencies, threatening the entire economic engine and triggering cascading effects across supply chains and service sectors.

Global Monetary Policy Impact on Australian Dollar

Uncertainty around U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions creates volatility in Asian currencies, including the Australian Dollar (AUD). The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious stance amid persistent inflation and slowing growth supports AUD stability. Currency fluctuations affect trade competitiveness, import costs, and investment flows, making monetary policy coordination and market expectations critical for Australia’s economic resilience.

Stock Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment

Indonesia’s stock market has experienced significant fluctuations due to MSCI’s proposed free-float rule changes and global economic uncertainties. Large-cap conglomerate stocks faced sharp declines, affecting overall market capitalization and foreign investor flows. These dynamics influence investment strategies and highlight the sensitivity of Indonesia’s equity market to regulatory and geopolitical developments.

Political Stability and Market Impact

The rejection of the case against opposition leader Özgür Özel temporarily eased market pressures, but concerns about authoritarianism, judicial interference, and political instability persist. Investor confidence remains fragile, with fears that government consolidation of power could trigger social unrest and capital flight, affecting currency stability and equity performance in Turkey.

Shift in Sovereign Wealth Fund Strategy

Russia plans to halt foreign currency sales from its National Wealth Fund by 2026, signaling a strategic pivot towards reduced reliance on foreign currencies and increased domestic investment. This recalibration reflects efforts to insulate the economy from external financial pressures and may affect global forex markets and Russia’s fiscal flexibility.

Regaining Regional FDI Hub Status

Turkey aims to reestablish itself as a major regional hub for foreign direct investment, leveraging its large market, free trade agreements covering 62% of exports, and proximity to neighboring regions. Structural reforms and macroeconomic stabilization efforts underpin this ambition, which could enhance capital inflows, technology transfer, and integration into global value chains.

US Tech Crackdown Risks Economic Loss

South Korea's aggressive antitrust actions against US tech giants like Google, Apple, and Amazon risk significant economic fallout. The Korea Fair Trade Commission's stringent regulations and fines could lead to $469 billion in losses for South Korea over the next decade, dampening innovation, foreign investment, and digital productivity, while straining US-Korea trade relations.

Global Market Reactions to US Tech and Geopolitics

Global markets are influenced by US tech sector earnings and geopolitical developments. Strong earnings from Amazon and Apple boost US market futures, while US-China trade truce reduces tariffs and restores some trade flows. However, currency fluctuations and commodity price shifts reflect ongoing uncertainties, underscoring the interconnectedness of technology performance and geopolitical events in shaping market momentum.

Impact on China and India’s Energy Imports

China and India, major importers of discounted Russian crude, face heightened risks due to sanctions. Compliance challenges with US secondary sanctions threaten their access to Russian oil, forcing these countries to reconsider supply chains, diversify sources, and manage increased procurement and logistical costs.

Investment Risk Perceptions in Africa

Despite improvements, South Africa and other African countries face ongoing investment risks related to political uncertainty, regulatory changes, and infrastructure deficits. However, reform momentum and regional integration efforts like AfCFTA offer long-term opportunities. Investors must balance risk with potential rewards, emphasizing due diligence and strategic engagement in the continent’s evolving economic landscape.

Middle-Income Trap and Structural Economic Challenges

Despite gains from the 'China plus one' strategy and rising FDI in advanced manufacturing, Thailand faces structural constraints including an aging workforce, low productivity, and reliance on low-value assembly. These factors threaten to stall broad-based economic growth and wage increases, posing risks to long-term competitiveness and social stability.

Australian Equity Market Sentiment and Risks

Australian share markets are experiencing volatility due to inflation concerns, interest rate uncertainty, and global tech sell-offs. Key sectors like raw materials, rare earths, and energy face downward pressure amid commodity price fluctuations and geopolitical risks. Financials and real estate show relative strength, but overall investor risk appetite is cautious, affecting capital flows and corporate valuations.

Strategic Importance of Brazil's Rare Earth Reserves

Brazil holds approximately 25% of the world's rare earth reserves, positioning it as a strategic player amid U.S. efforts to diversify supply chains away from China. Although commercial-scale production is years away, these resources influence geopolitical recalibrations, potentially affecting sectors like steel, agriculture, telecommunications, and aerospace, and reshaping Latin America's trade landscape.

Manufacturing Sector Slowdown

Turkey's manufacturing PMI fell to 46.5 in October, indicating contraction due to weak demand, slowing new orders, and rising input costs linked to currency weakness. This slowdown poses risks to export growth, employment, and supply chain reliability, potentially dampening economic momentum and investor sentiment.

Impact of US Tariffs on Taiwan's Trade and Economy

US tariffs on Taiwanese exports, except semiconductors, are dampening economic growth and complicating trade dynamics. Tariff-related uncertainties threaten export volumes and profitability, prompting cautious monetary policy and investment decisions. Taiwan must navigate these challenges while sustaining its role in global technology supply chains.

Ukraine's Industrial and Trade Contributions

Despite conflict-related risks, Ukraine's processing industry and wholesale/retail trade sectors contributed nearly one-third of the national budget revenues in the first nine months of 2025. This resilience supports government finances and defense efforts, indicating adaptive business operations and the importance of these sectors for economic stability and investor confidence.

Defense Industry Collaboration and Innovation

Israel deepens defense cooperation with India through MoUs focusing on co-development, co-production, and technology transfer in AI, cyber security, and advanced systems. This partnership strengthens operational capabilities and supports Israel’s defense industrial base amid ongoing regional security challenges.

Rising Public Debt Crisis

France faces a mounting public debt crisis with debt exceeding €3.4 trillion, over 115% of GDP. Debt servicing costs are projected to rise from €30 billion in 2020 to over €100 billion by decade's end, increasing borrowing costs for government, businesses, and households. This fiscal pressure threatens economic growth and investor confidence, impacting trade and investment strategies.

Regulatory and Bureaucratic Burdens

Excessive regulations, bureaucratic delays, and complex documentation requirements are stifling investment and innovation in Germany. The regulatory cost burden, estimated at €60 billion annually, undermines business efficiency, deters foreign investment, and hampers the modernization of industries, contributing to economic stagnation and competitive disadvantages.

Technological Innovation and AI Adoption

Saudi Arabia is aggressively pursuing AI and digital transformation, with significant investments and partnerships showcased at FII. The focus on AI aligns with global trends, aiming to enhance productivity, create new industries, and position the Kingdom as a regional tech hub, influencing global technology supply chains and investment flows.

Concerns Over China's Economic Influence on Taiwan Islands

Taiwan monitors Beijing’s potential economic integration plans targeting frontline islands like Kinmen, which could undermine Taiwanese sovereignty. Infrastructure projects and economic ties risk shifting jurisdictional control, heightening cross-strait tensions and posing risks to regional stability and investor confidence in Taiwan’s territorial integrity.

Energy Sector Challenges from Sanctions

US and EU sanctions on Russian oil producers threaten India's access to discounted Russian crude, pressuring refiners like Reliance Industries. The end of these windfalls may increase import costs and squeeze refining margins, compelling Indian refiners to seek alternative supplies from the Middle East and Brazil, potentially raising India's crude import bill and impacting fuel pricing.

Semiconductor Industry Growth and Challenges

Israel has solidified its position as a global semiconductor hub, generating $40 billion since 1996 and attracting substantial annual investments. The sector employs around 45,000 people but faces challenges with declining startup formation and a shift toward consolidation. Sustaining innovation and transitioning to long-term development models are critical for future competitiveness.

Internal Political Infighting and Governance Challenges

Iran’s ruling establishment is marked by factionalism and competing agencies, weakening coherent policy responses to economic and security challenges. Political infighting undermines effective crisis management, increasing risks for foreign investors and complicating Iran’s engagement with international partners.

Financial Market Sentiment and ETF Activity

Significant declines in short interest in the iShares MSCI Israel ETF indicate improving investor sentiment toward Israeli equities. Institutional investors are increasing holdings, reflecting confidence in Israel's economic recovery and growth prospects. This trend supports capital inflows and liquidity in Israeli financial markets, benefiting broader investment strategies.

Shift in Global Investment Allocation

Investors are increasingly diversifying away from US assets due to policy uncertainty, trade volatility, and concerns over Federal Reserve independence. The weakening US dollar and structural risk premia encourage a multipolar investment approach, with growing interest in critical minerals and energy transition themes outside the US, reflecting a shift towards global asset allocation strategies.

Stable Financial System Supports Growth

Indonesia's financial system remained stable in Q3 2025, bolstered by coordinated policy efforts among key institutions. Stable household consumption, investment, and manufacturing expansion underpin economic growth, despite global uncertainties like US tariffs. This stability enhances investor confidence and supports sustained economic activity, crucial for international trade and investment strategies.

Japanese Stock Market Rally

Japan's stock market is reaching multi-decade highs driven by strong corporate earnings, a weak yen boosting exporters, and rising interest rates benefiting financials. Investment trusts show robust returns, with a focus on mid and small caps, technology, robotics, and AI sectors. This bullish trend attracts global investors seeking diversification and growth opportunities in Japan.

Data Center and AI Investment Boom

Data center and AI-related investments account for 80% of US private domestic demand growth in early 2025. The US leads globally with over 40% of data center capacity, driving macroeconomic growth despite broader investment headwinds. This technological surge reshapes capital expenditure patterns and underpins future productivity gains.