USMCA review and North America rules

USMCA exemptions shield much trade, but the agreement is under mandatory review and political pressure. Businesses should expect potential rule-of-origin tightening, sector carve-outs, and enforcement disputes, affecting auto, energy and agriculture supply chains across North America.

Foreign investment scrutiny and security

Canada is applying more assertive national-security review to sensitive sectors such as critical minerals, telecom, AI, and defense supply chains. Investors should expect longer timelines, mitigation conditions, and partner-vetting requirements—especially where state-linked capital or dual-use technologies are involved.

Canada–China thaw, security tradeoffs

Canada is expanding trade with China to offset U.S. exposure, but deeper engagement elevates geopolitical, reputational and compliance risks amid foreign-interference concerns and sensitive law-enforcement cooperation. Firms should tighten due diligence, IP controls, and sanctions screening.

Trade reorientation toward United States

US imports from Taiwan reportedly exceeded China in a recent month, reflecting AI-server and chip export surges and making the US nearly one-third of Taiwan’s exports. While positive for demand, concentration increases policy leverage and cyclicality risks for exporters.

Defense Re-armament Drives Industrial Orders

Public procurement is shifting industrial demand: December 2025 factory orders rose 7.8% month-on-month and 13% year-on-year, with defense-linked categories surging; defense spending reached €86.4bn in 2025 and is projected near €108–119bn in 2026, tightening capacity and compliance needs.

Sanctions enforcement and compliance burden

Treasury’s OFAC expanded designations targeting Iran’s shadow fleet and procurement networks, signaling aggressive secondary-risk posture for shipping, traders and banks. Multinationals face heightened screening needs, shipment delays, higher insurance costs, and greater penalties exposure for facilitation.

Tech sector rebound, talent volatility

High-tech remains central—about 17% of GDP and 57% of exports—while war-driven reservist call-ups and emigration weighed on staffing. Funding improved to $15.6bn in 2025 (from $12.2bn in 2024), with defense-tech growth reshaping investment theses and compliance needs.

External Buffers, Rupee Hedging Pressure

Forex reserves hit a record about $723.8bn, with gold around $137.7bn, giving RBI scope to smooth volatility via swaps and spot intervention. Yet tariff shocks and import costs can drive INR swings, increasing hedging, pricing and working-capital needs for multinationals.

Interoceanic Corridor logistics expansion

The Isthmus of Tehuantepec Interoceanic Corridor—ports plus rail—aims to move containers coast-to-coast in under six hours with planned capacity around 1.4 million TEU/year. If delivered, it could reshape routing, industrial-park siting, and resilience versus Panama Canal disruptions.

Geoeconomic bloc politics with China

US-led ‘economic security’ clubs—especially critical minerals—pressure Australia to align with tariff-enabled frameworks while China remains its largest export market. Firms face higher policy volatility, potential retaliatory trade friction, and the need to diversify routes and customers.

Gibraltar border treaty operational shift

A draft UK–EU treaty would introduce dual border checks at Gibraltar’s airport and port with Spanish “second line” Schengen-style controls and customs clearance in Spain for most goods. It reduces land-border friction but adds compliance, documentation and traveller-processing complexity.

Energy Transition Industrial Policy

Budget measures extend customs exemptions for lithium-ion cell inputs, solar-glass materials and nuclear-project goods to 2035, plus aviation components and MRO inputs. These incentives attract manufacturing FDI and localisation, but create policy-dependent cost advantages and compliance complexity.

External financing and rollover risk

Pakistan’s reserves depend on continued rollovers and refinancing from UAE, China, and Saudi Arabia, including a closely watched $2bn UAE deposit extension. Any delay would raise devaluation and capital-control risks, disrupting trade settlement and repatriation.

AI chip export controls tightening

US is weighing a new framework to ration AI-chip exports, potentially requiring licenses even for small installations and linking large shipments to foreign security guarantees or US investment. This could delay overseas deployments, constrain partners’ data-center buildouts, and complicate vendor compliance.

Environmental approvals and compliance

EPBC reforms and high-profile enforcement (Alcoa’s AU$55m undertaking; “national interest” exemptions tied to minerals projects) increase uncertainty for miners, infrastructure and renewables. Expect higher due-diligence burdens, litigation exposure and conditional operating constraints.

Sanctions and trade compliance tightening

Heightened Israel–Iran confrontation increases sanctions-screening, dual‑use export controls, and end‑use verification burdens. Multinationals face higher compliance costs and contractual risk around force majeure, payment rails, shipping documentation, and dealing with designated entities across the region.

Enerji arzı, LNG ve hublaşma

Türkiye LNG kapasitesini büyütüyor; Avustralya’dan ilk LNG kargosu geldi ve gazın yaklaşık yarısı LNG olarak ithal edilebilir hale geldi. Azerbaycan 2025’te Türkiye’ye 11,915 bcm gaz gönderdi. Tedarik çeşitlenmesi sanayi için güvence sağlarken fiyat oynaklığı sürüyor.

Sanctions escalation and secondary risk

U.S. “maximum pressure” is widening from designations to potential tanker seizures, raising secondary-sanctions exposure for non‑U.S. firms. Recent actions target dozens of entities and 12+ vessels, tightening compliance, contracting, and reputational risks across energy, shipping, and trading.

Juros, fiscal e custo de capital

Cortes da Selic e estabilidade macro em 2026 são vistos como condicionados a ajuste fiscal; projeções de mercado citam IPCA perto de 3,8% e câmbio ao redor de R$5,40. O quadro afeta custo de financiamento, valuation, crédito corporativo e viabilidade de projetos intensivos em capital e infraestrutura.

Managed trade and bilateral deals

The 2026 U.S. Trade Policy Agenda prioritizes reciprocal framework agreements and tougher market-access enforcement, including agriculture, digital, and overcapacity disputes. Expect frequent negotiations, compliance reviews, and sudden leverage tactics affecting partners’ market entry and long-term investment planning.

Rezervler güçlü, dış borç baskısı

TCMB brüt rezervleri Ocak sonunda 218,2 milyar $ ile rekor görüp 20 Şubat haftasında 206,1 milyar $’a indi. Buna karşılık 1 yıl içinde vadesi gelecek kısa vadeli dış borç 225,4 milyar $. Yenileme maliyeti ve likidite riski artıyor.

Export logistics: Black Sea and Danube

Maritime access remains volatile as port strikes and naval risks raise freight, security, and insurance premiums. Firms diversify via Danube, rail, and EU “Solidarity Lanes,” but capacity bottlenecks and border friction can delay deliveries and complicate export contracts.

Biosecurity compliance tightening for imports

Recent DAFF updates add clarified triggers for electronic biosecurity notices and stricter handling of returned meat consignments requiring permits. Importers face higher documentation precision, potential border delays, and elevated spoilage risk in agri-food supply chains.

Climate shocks and supply disruptions

Floods and extreme weather increasingly affect agriculture output, transport, and industrial continuity. IMF RSF climate financing signals policy focus, but near-term exposure remains high for cotton, food inputs, and infrastructure reliability—raising the value of diversified sourcing and resilient warehousing.

AI model governance and IP leakage

Accusations that Chinese AI labs mined frontier models via fake accounts highlight growing IP and cybersecurity risk in cross-border AI collaboration. Expect tighter access controls by US labs, more audits of data/model use, and heightened due diligence for partnerships and cloud usage.

Pembatasan pajak layanan digital

Klausul ART melarang pajak layanan digital yang diskriminatif terhadap perusahaan AS serta melarang bea atas transmisi elektronik, sambil membuka komitmen transfer data lintas batas. Ini menurunkan opsi kebijakan fiskal dan memengaruhi negosiasi dengan platform global, tetapi dapat mempercepat investasi cloud, pusat data, dan layanan digital.

Electricity cost, grid stability risks

Load shedding has eased, but Eskom output is declining and tariffs continue rising; municipal arrears exceed R110bn, prompting potential supply interruptions. Businesses face cost volatility, embedded-generation acceleration, and contingency planning needs for facilities in high‑debt municipalities.

Supply-chain infrastructure and labor fragility

Business continuity risks persist across rail, ports, and trucking corridors that underpin Canada’s trade flows. Any disruptions—labor disputes, extreme weather, or capacity bottlenecks—can quickly propagate into cross-border manufacturing and retail inventories, increasing the value of redundancy and nearshoring.

Land bridge megaproject uncertainty

The THB990bn “land bridge” under the Southern Economic Corridor aims to link Gulf and Andaman ports via rail and motorway, targeting up to 20m TEU capacity. Tendering could occur within four years, but depends on enabling legislation and financing, affecting long-term logistics and hub strategies.

Supply-chain diversification accelerates

Geopolitical risk is pushing major buyers and contract manufacturers to diversify production to India, Vietnam, and the US, while Taiwanese champions expand abroad. This reshapes supplier qualification, lead times, and capex plans—creating opportunities for new regional ecosystems.

Anti-corruption tightening and compliance

A new Party resolution on anti-corruption and waste is set for adoption, emphasizing stronger deterrence, post-audit controls, and scrutiny of high-risk sectors. While improving integrity over time, short-term effects include slower approvals, higher documentation burdens, and elevated enforcement risk for partners and intermediaries.

Reconstruction pipeline and funding gap

RDNA5 estimates US$587.7bn recovery needs for 2026–2035, with US$15.25bn priority for 2026 and a ~US$9.48bn gap. This creates large opportunities in transport, energy, and housing, but demands robust procurement controls and risk-sharing structures.

Defense build-up and dual-use constraints

Japan’s expanded defense posture and record budgets intersect with tightening regional controls on dual-use technologies. Companies in aerospace, electronics, materials, and shipbuilding face higher scrutiny on end-use, cybersecurity, and data handling; offsets and trusted supply chains gain value.

Defense spending widens fiscal strain

Israel approved an additional 9 billion shekels ($2.9bn) for war costs, signaling a higher 2026 deficit and potential ratings pressure. Expect increased taxation or spending reprioritization, higher sovereign funding needs, and knock-on impacts on public procurement cycles and private-sector financing conditions.

Impor energi AS dan tekanan subsidi

Komitmen impor migas dari AS (LPG, crude, bensin olahan) bernilai ~US$15 miliar berisiko menaikkan biaya karena LPG AS diperkirakan ~10% lebih mahal. Kenaikan harga energi global juga memperlebar beban APBN; tiap US$1 kenaikan ICP dapat menambah defisit sekitar Rp6,7 triliun, memengaruhi kurs dan permintaan.

Eastward trade pivot and corridors

Sanctions push Iran toward China/Russia-centric trade and logistics (including INSTC/Caspian routes). This can create niche opportunities in non-sanctioned goods, but entails higher geopolitical exposure, opaque counterparties, and infrastructure bottlenecks affecting reliability and total landed cost.