China tech controls tighten further

Stricter export controls and licensing conditions on advanced semiconductors (e.g., Nvidia H200) and enforcement actions (e.g., Applied Materials $252m penalty for SMIC-linked exports) raise compliance burdens, restrict China revenue, and accelerate redesign, re-routing, and localization of tech supply chains.

Bilateral trade bargaining approach

The administration is pursuing deal-by-deal leverage—e.g., interim trade frameworks with partners and targeted pressure on Canada. Businesses should expect conditional tariff relief, sector carve-outs, and fast-moving negotiation-driven rule changes that complicate pricing, sourcing, and market-entry decisions.

Foreign-backed infrastructure dealmaking

Mota-Engil is in advanced talks to assume Bahia’s Fiol rail, Porto Sul port, and Caetité mine in a ~R$15bn package, reportedly financed via China-linked capital. This signals renewed concession momentum, but adds geopolitically sensitive financing, governance, and execution considerations.

Red Sea route security risk

Houthi threats and intermittent de-escalation continue to destabilize Red Sea/Suez routing for Israel-linked trade. Carriers’ gradual returns remain reversible, raising freight premiums, longer lead times, insurance costs, and contingency planning needs for Asia–Europe supply chains.

India–EU FTA market opening

India and the EU concluded an FTA removing tariffs on 90%+ of goods; analysts cite duty‑free access for ~99.5% of India’s export value to the EU. Winners include labor‑intensive exports; compliance, standards, and sustainability provisions shape supply chains.

Critical minerals alliance, China risk

Japan is aligning with the US and EU on a critical minerals framework to diversify mining, refining, recycling and stockpiling, responding to China’s export controls on rare earths. Expect tighter compliance expectations, higher input costs, and new investment incentives in non-China supply.

Defense posture and maritime asset protection

Israel is prioritizing protection of Eilat approaches and offshore gas infrastructure, reflected in expanded naval readiness. Persistent maritime threats raise operational continuity and security requirements for ports, energy off-take, subsea cables and critical infrastructure suppliers operating nearby.

US tariff shock and reorientation

Reports indicate a steep US reciprocal tariff (cited at 36%) has raised urgency for export diversification, local value-add, and BOI support measures. Firms face margin pressure, potential order diversion, and renewed interest in rules-of-origin planning and US-facing compliance.

EU tech regulation and platform governance

Macron’s push for ‘transparent algorithms’ reinforces France’s hard line on EU digital rules (GDPR, DSA, DMA) amid transatlantic friction. Tech, e-commerce, and advertisers should expect higher compliance burdens, auditability demands, and enforcement attention affecting data, content, and competition.

AB ve üçüncü ülke ticaret önlemleri

AB’nin çelikte kota ve korumacı önlemleri sıkılaşıyor; 1 Haziran’da ürün bazında %50’ye varan kotaların ihracatta yaklaşık 3 milyar $ kayıp yaratabileceği öngörülüyor. İhracatçılar yakın pazarlara yöneliyor. Ticaret sapması riski, sözleşme ve pazar stratejilerini yeniden şekillendiriyor.

Defense localization and offsets

Saudi Arabia is deepening industrial participation requirements, targeting >50% defense-spend localization by 2030 (24.89% by end-2024). World Defense Show 2026 generated 60 arms contracts worth SAR33bn. Foreign suppliers face stronger tech-transfer, local manufacturing, and SME supply-chain obligations.

Import licensing and quota uncertainty

Businesses report delays and sharp quota cuts in import permits (e.g., frozen beef private quota cut from 180,000 to 30,000 tons), alongside tighter controls on fuel import quotas for private retailers. This heightens operational uncertainty for food, hospitality, and downstream distribution networks.

Réglementation agricole et contestation

Mobilisations contre la loi Duplomb et débats sur la réintroduction de pesticides (acéthamipride). Impacts: incertitude sur intrants, normes ESG et traçabilité, risques réputationnels, volatilité des coûts agroalimentaires et tensions sur accords commerciaux (ex. Mercosur).

Capacity constraints and inflation breadth

Broad-based price pressures and tight labor conditions suggest capacity constraints across services, construction, and logistics. For multinationals, this can mean wage escalation, contractor shortages, and longer project timelines—especially for large industrial and infrastructure builds.

AI hardware export surge and tariffs

High-end AI chips and servers are driving trade imbalances and policy attention; the U.S. deficit with Taiwan hit about US$126.9B in Jan–Nov 2025, largely from AI chip imports. Expect tighter reporting, security reviews, and shifting tariff exposure across AI stacks.

Concessões e PPPs de infraestrutura

O leilão do Aeroporto do Galeão (mínimo de R$ 932 milhões; outorga variável de 20% da receita bruta até 2039) sinaliza continuidade da agenda de concessões, criando oportunidades para operadores e fundos. Porém, reequilíbrios contratuais e intervenção regulatória seguem no radar.

Energy security: LNG and nuclear

Japan is locking in long-term LNG supply—e.g., JERA’s 27-year, 3 mtpa deal with Qatar from 2028 and deeper US energy-linked investment frameworks—while accelerating reactor restarts. This reshapes fuel procurement, power-price risk, and emissions strategies for heavy industry and data centers.

Fiscal pressure and project sequencing

Lower oil prices and reduced Aramco distributions are tightening fiscal space, raising the likelihood of project delays, re-scoping and more PPP-style financing. International contractors and suppliers should plan for slower award cycles, tougher payment terms, and higher counterparty diligence.

Credit outlook stabilizes, debt stays high

Moody’s lifted Israel’s outlook to stable while keeping Baa1, citing resilience and ~$220bn FX reserves. However war spending has pushed debt toward ~68% of GDP and budgets target ~3.9% deficit, affecting sovereign spreads, financing costs, and public procurement capacity.

Baht strength, FX intervention bias

Foreign inflows after the election are strengthening the baht, while the Bank of Thailand signals willingness to manage excessive volatility and scrutinize gold-linked flows. A stronger currency squeezes exporters’ margins and complicates regional supply-chain cost planning and hedging strategies.

Energy exports shifting to gas

Aramco’s $100bn Jafurah unconventional gas project has begun condensate exports (4–6 cargoes/month, ~500k barrels each), aiming for 2 Bcf/d gas by 2030. Gas-for-power could free ~1 mb/d crude for export, reshaping feedstock costs and regional supply balances.

US–Indonesia reciprocal tariff reset

A new US–Indonesia reciprocal trade agreement lowers US tariffs on Indonesian goods to ~19% while Indonesia removes tariffs on most US products. Expect near-term changes in market access, compliance requirements, and competitive pressure in textiles, agribusiness, and manufacturing.

Mining push and critical minerals

Saudi is positioning mining as a “third pillar,” citing an estimated $2.5 trillion resource base and new investment frameworks emphasizing transparency and ESG. Opportunities rise in exploration, processing and fertilizer/aluminum chains, while permitting, water use, and ESG scrutiny remain key risks.

Energy transition bottlenecks and costs

UK decarbonisation continues, but grid constraints and high power costs remain a competitiveness issue for energy‑intensive industry. Delays in connections and network upgrades can slow plant expansions and electrification projects, increasing capex timelines and pushing firms to reassess UK footprint versus EU/US options.

Industrial energy costs and grid build

Industry faces persistently high electricity costs and an estimated ~£80bn transmission-grid expansion to 2031. While network-charge discounts broaden, details remain unclear. Energy-intensive manufacturing may see closures or relocation, affecting supplier bases and UK production economics.

Saudization tightening in commercial roles

From April 19, 2026, private firms with three or more staff must localize 60% of specified sales and marketing jobs, with minimum Saudi salary thresholds (SAR 5,500). Separate restrictions reserve certain senior/procurement titles for Saudis, raising HR compliance, payroll costs and operating model adjustments.

China trade frictions resurface

Australia’s anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese steel (10% plus earlier 35–113% duties) raise retaliation risks across iron ore, beef and education services. Firms should stress-test China exposure, diversify markets and monitor WTO disputes and safeguard-style measures.

Compétition chinoise et protectionnisme

Un rapport officiel alerte sur la pression chinoise sur les industries clés; options évoquées: protection équivalente à 30% de droits ou ajustement de change. Impacts: risques de mesures commerciales UE, réorientation sourcing, clauses de contenu local et stratégie prix.

Ports and logistics capacity surge

Seaport throughput is rising with major investment planned to 2030 (~VND359.5tn/US$13.8bn). Hai Phong’s deep-water upgrades enable larger vessels (up to ~160,000 DWT) and more direct US/EU routes, cutting transshipment costs but stressing hinterland road/rail links.

Energy subsidy and LPG distribution reform

Government plans tighter subsidized LPG 3kg controls: KTP-linked purchases, welfare ‘decile’ targeting, a single-price concept, and a new sub-distributor tier, with pilots before rollout. This affects FMCG demand, retail logistics, inflation dynamics, and operational planning for distributors.

Tight labour and skills constraints

Large-scale defence, mining and infrastructure programs are intensifying competition for engineers, trades and apprentices. Wage pressures and project delays can lift EPC costs, extend timelines and raise operational risk for inbound investors reliant on scarce specialist labour.

Red Sea shipping risk premium

Houthi attacks on Israel-linked vessels are suspended but conditional on Gaza calm, leaving a fragile ceasefire. Insurers and carriers maintain high-risk routing assumptions in Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb, impacting transit times, freight costs, and reliability for Israel-related supply chains.

Renewed US tariff escalation risk

Washington signals possible reversion to 25% tariffs, tying relief to South Korea’s $350bn US-investment pledge and progress on “non‑tariff barriers.” Uncertainty raises landed costs and disrupts pricing, contract terms, and US-facing automotive, pharma, and biotech supply chains.

EU Chemicals Protection and Competitiveness

Europe is moving to shield chemicals amid high costs and import pressure. The EC imposed antidumping duties on ABS (5.2–21.7%) and BDO (52.4–142.5%); Cefic estimates 37 Mt/y capacity closures since 2022 and 20,000 jobs lost, influencing feedstock pricing and investment decisions.

Payment constraints and crypto workarounds

With banking restrictions persistent, Iran increasingly relies on alternative settlement channels including stablecoins and local exchanges, complicating compliance and AML controls. Firms face elevated fraud, convertibility, and repatriation risk, plus higher transaction costs and delayed settlement timelines.

Defence exports and industrial upgrading

Defence and aerospace exports began 2026 at a record $555.3m in January (+44.2% y/y), and new deals in the region broaden industrial partnerships. This supports high-value manufacturing clusters, but can also elevate export-control, end-use, and reputational diligence requirements.