PIF strategy reset and PPPs

The Public Investment Fund is revising its 2026–2030 strategy and Saudi launched a privatization push targeting 220+ PPP contracts by 2030 and ~$64bn capex. Creates bankable infrastructure deals, but raises tender competitiveness, localization requirements, and governance diligence needs.

Foreign Direct Investment Surges Amid Reforms

FDI in Saudi Arabia rose 10% to $280 billion by Q3 2025, reflecting regulatory reforms and incentives targeting $100 billion annual FDI by 2030. The Kingdom’s efforts to attract long-term foreign capital are reshaping ownership, partnership, and market entry strategies for global investors.

Rising cyber risk and compliance

La stratégie nationale cybersécurité 2026-2030 répond à un record de 348 000 atteintes en 2025 (+75% en cinq ans). Priorités: formation, sécurisation technologique, préparation de crise, mobilisation du privé et réduction des dépendances, renforçant obligations fournisseurs et audits.

Environmental Enforcement and Permit Revocations

Indonesia has revoked permits for 28 companies, mainly in forestry, mining, and plantations, due to illegal deforestation and environmental violations. This signals stricter enforcement, affecting supply chains and compliance costs for resource-dependent industries.

Investment liberalization and market access

Saudi investment is surging, with total investment topping SR1.5 trillion ($400bn) in 2025 and FDI stock reaching SR1.05 trillion ($280bn) by Q3 2025. Capital markets opened wider from Feb. 1, reshaping entry, financing, and partnership strategies.

Currency Volatility and Inflation Pressures

The Egyptian pound has experienced depreciation against the US dollar, though foreign reserves reached record highs. Inflation, while declining to 12.3%, remains a concern. Monetary easing is expected in 2026, with interest rates projected to fall, impacting investment and import costs.

Large infrastructure pipeline execution

Sheinbaum’s 2026–2030 plan targets roughly MXN 5.6–5.9 trillion (about $323B) across 1,500 projects, heavily weighted to energy, rail and roads, plus ports. If delivered, it improves logistics; execution, funding structure and procurement transparency remain key risks.

Strategic Role in European Value Chains

Turkey is deeply embedded in EU value chains, especially in automotive, machinery, textiles, and electronics. Its manufacturing and logistics capacity, combined with energy corridor status, make it a strategic partner for Europe’s competitiveness and supply chain resilience.

Tax and GST compliance digitization

Authorities are shifting to data-driven, risk-based enforcement: expanded e-invoicing and automated “nudge” campaigns, plus proposed e-way bill reforms toward trusted-dealer, tech-enabled logistics. This raises auditability and system-risk exposure, especially for MSMEs and cross-border traders.

Auto sector reshoring and EV policy shift

Ottawa’s new auto strategy responds to U.S. auto tariffs and competitive Chinese EV inflows by combining tariff credits, renewed EV incentives and stricter emissions standards while scrapping the prior sales mandate. Impacts include location decisions, supplier localization, and model allocation.

US tariff volatility, autos exposure

Washington’s surprise move to lift “reciprocal” tariffs to 25% (from 15%) on Korean autos, lumber and pharma heightens policy risk. Autos are ~27% of Korea’s US exports; firms may accelerate US localization, reroute supply chains, or hedge pricing.

Ambitious Infrastructure Investment Drive

Vietnam is launching major infrastructure projects, including high-speed rail and expanded logistics networks, to support growth and regional connectivity. These initiatives are designed to enhance export capacity, attract FDI, and improve the country’s competitiveness in global value chains.

US-China Trade Decoupling Dynamics

Despite high US tariffs, China’s exports have surged by reallocating supply chains through third-party countries. US efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese goods are being circumvented, impacting sourcing, pricing, and competitive positioning for international businesses.

Political Stability And Reform Momentum

Vietnam’s leadership reaffirmed its commitment to ambitious economic reforms and growth targets, pledging over 10% annual GDP growth through 2030. Political stability and streamlined governance continue to attract foreign investors seeking predictability and reduced bureaucratic hurdles.

Kritische Infrastruktur und Sicherheitspflichten

Das Kritis-Dachgesetz verschärft Vorgaben für Betreiber kritischer Infrastruktur (Energie, Wasser u.a.): Risikoanalysen, Meldepflichten für Sicherheitsvorfälle, höhere Schutzmaßnahmen und Bußgelder. Das erhöht Capex/Opex, IT- und Physical-Security-Anforderungen sowie Anforderungen an Zulieferer und Dienstleister.

Supply Chain and Border Management Uncertainty

The reopening of the Rafah border crossing and ongoing controls highlight persistent uncertainty in supply chain logistics. Restrictions on goods and movement, coupled with complex oversight, continue to challenge humanitarian aid, trade, and operational planning for international businesses.

Real Estate Transformation and Urbanization

India’s real estate market is projected to reach $1.26 trillion by 2034, driven by urbanization, infrastructure, and PropTech. Regulatory reforms like RERA and rising NRI investments are boosting transparency and investor confidence, with commercial and residential demand expanding in Tier-II cities.

Regulatory enforcement and customs friction

Customs procedures, standards enforcement, and intermittent import restrictions can create compliance burdens and lead-time uncertainty. Firms should anticipate documentary scrutiny, inspection delays, and evolving rules for controlled goods. Robust broker management, classification discipline, and local warehousing reduce disruption risk.

Political Polarization and Business Uncertainty

Deepening political divisions and unpredictable policy shifts, especially around elections, undermine regulatory stability and investor confidence. Businesses must navigate volatile labor, tax, and regulatory environments, increasing operational risk and complicating long-term planning.

EU market access and GSP+ scrutiny

Pakistan’s duty-free access under EU GSP+ (extended to 2027) is pivotal for textiles and apparel, but remains linked to 27 conventions and rights monitoring. Any compliance slippage or preference erosion would raise landed costs and disrupt buyer sourcing decisions.

IMF-Led Economic Reform Momentum

Recent IMF engagement and disbursement of $1.2 billion have driven fiscal discipline, tax reforms, and macroeconomic stabilization. While these measures boost investor confidence, they also entail stringent conditions affecting trade, investment, and operational flexibility for foreign businesses.

Surge in Green Energy Investment

A landmark $2 billion Saudi-Turkish solar energy deal will add 2,000 MW capacity, supplying 2.1 million homes and boosting local industry. This reflects Turkey’s drive to reach 120,000 MW renewable capacity by 2035, attracting foreign capital and supporting energy transition.

Digital regulation tightening for platforms

Australia’s under‑16 social media ban (fines up to A$49.5m) and broader eSafety scrutiny are forcing stronger age assurance, content controls and reporting. Multinationals face higher compliance costs, data-handling risk, and potential service changes affecting marketing, customer support and HR.

Digital tax reporting expands to SMEs

HMRC’s Making Tax Digital for Income Tax begins April 2026 for self‑employed/landlords over £50k, moving to quarterly submissions via paid software; thresholds fall to £30k (2027) and £20k (2028). This increases compliance cost, process change and advisory demand.

Immigration compliance crackdown on sponsorship

New offences targeting adverts for false visa sponsorships and intensified enforcement reflect tougher Home Office posture. Employers in logistics, care, hospitality and tech face higher due-diligence and audit expectations, potential licence risk, recruitment friction and reputational exposure in supply chains.

Cost Competitiveness Versus Traditional Construction

Modular construction in Germany is gaining ground over traditional methods due to faster build times and lower lifecycle costs. However, high initial investment and market misconceptions remain barriers, requiring targeted education and financial innovation to unlock broader adoption.

Green Transition and Sustainable Investment Projects

Major projects like the $4.2 billion Giza waste-to-biofuel facility highlight Egypt’s commitment to green growth and the circular economy. Such initiatives create new investment opportunities, support job creation, and align with global sustainability standards, attracting ESG-focused investors.

USMCA review and tariff risk

The July 2026 USMCA joint review is opening talks on stricter rules of origin, critical-minerals coordination, labor enforcement and anti-dumping. Fitch warns “zombie-mode” annual renewals. Uncertainty raises compliance costs and chills long-horizon manufacturing investment.

Higher-for-longer interest rates

The Federal Reserve is pausing further rate cuts with inflation still pressured partly by tariffs. Elevated funding costs and a stronger risk premium weigh on capex, real estate, and leveraged trade finance, while FX volatility complicates pricing, hedging, and repatriation strategies.

Macroeconomic Stability and Policy Risks

Consistent 5% growth and low inflation underpin Indonesia’s economic outlook, but recent market turmoil, currency depreciation, and political appointments have heightened concerns over central bank independence, fiscal expansion, and the credibility of long-term investment strategies.

Shrinking but Persistent EU-Iran Trade

Despite sanctions, EU-Iran trade persists at low levels—€4.6bn in 2024, mainly machinery, chemicals, and food. However, ongoing sanctions and the IRGC’s terrorist designation by the EU further constrain business, with compliance burdens and reputational risks for European firms.

Renewable Energy and Digital Economy Push

Egypt is leveraging its geographic advantages to become a regional leader in renewable energy and digital infrastructure. Major investments in solar, green hydrogen, and digital trade platforms are attracting international partnerships and supporting the country’s green transition and export competitiveness.

Energy transition supply-chain frictions

Rising restrictions and tariffs targeting Chinese-origin batteries and energy storage (e.g., FEOC rules, higher Section 301 tariffs) are forcing earlier compliance screening, origin tracing, and dual-sourcing—impacting project finance, delivery schedules, and total installed costs globally.

China and Russia Strategic Partnerships

Iran’s economic and security dependence on China and Russia has deepened, with China absorbing over 80% of Iran’s oil exports and providing military, technological, and diplomatic support. These partnerships offer Iran lifelines but also expose foreign investors to secondary sanctions and geopolitical entanglements.

Financial Sector Resilience and Growth Outlook

Israel’s economy demonstrates resilience, with strong currency performance, low unemployment, and robust growth forecasts for 2026. Rate cuts and potential normalization agreements could further boost foreign investment and exports, enhancing the country’s attractiveness for global investors.

Visa Incentives And Talent Mobility

New government decrees grant time-limited visa exemptions for foreign experts, streamlining entry and enhancing Vietnam’s attractiveness for international talent. This policy supports research, innovation, and high-value investment, facilitating knowledge transfer and business expansion.