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Mission Grey Daily Brief - October 18, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The world is witnessing a multipolar international security architecture with rising tensions between nation-states. Conflicts and insurgencies are flaring in Yemen, Myanmar, and the Horn of Africa, while tensions escalate in East Africa and between North and South Korea. The US presidential election looms, with Donald Trump threatening to use presidential powers to seize control of major urban centers and carry out mass deportations. China-based drone suppliers and their Russian partners have been sanctioned by the US for supplying weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Russian automaker Sollers is struggling due to Western sanctions, while US strikes on Yemen have brought the Houthi threat to the fore, with the Yemeni rebel group disrupting global maritime commerce and exacerbating global inflation.

US Sanctions Chinese Drone Suppliers for Supporting Russia's War in Ukraine

The United States has imposed sanctions on two China-based drone suppliers and their alleged Russian partners, the first time it has penalized Chinese companies for supplying complete weapons systems to Russia for its war in Ukraine. The Chinese companies had collaborated with Russian defense firms in the production of Moscow's "Garpiya series" long-range unmanned aerial vehicles, which were designed, developed, and made in China before being sent to Russia for use in the battlefield. The US Treasury Department accused the Chinese firms of direct involvement in arms supplies to Moscow.

The Chinese embassy in Washington denied the accusations, claiming that China was handling the export of military products responsibly. However, China's support for Russia in the Ukraine war has become a key point of tension between Washington and Beijing as they seek to stabilize rocky relations.

China has become Russia's top trade partner, offering a crucial lifeline to its heavily sanctioned economy, and the two nuclear-armed neighbors have ramped up joint military exercises in recent months.

Russian Automaker Sollers Struggles Under Western Sanctions

Russian automaker Sollers is struggling due to Western sanctions, with vehicles breaking down along the war front. Sollers has blamed sanctions for forcing it to switch suppliers quickly, leading to quality issues with its vehicles.

Dmitry Rogozin, a former top official, has criticized the quality of Sollers' vehicles, including constant leaks, engine problems, and flimsy parts. Sollers has lost key suppliers due to sanctions, forcing it to switch component suppliers in a short time.

Sollers is in talks with Rogozin and BARS-Sarmat, a volunteer military organization, to ensure better quality of vehicles sent to the front.

US Strikes on Yemen Bring Houthi Threat to the Fore

The latest round of US strikes on Yemen has brought the Houthi threat to the fore, with the Yemeni rebel group disrupting global maritime commerce and exacerbating global inflation. The Houthis have continued to assert themselves as the vanguard of Iran's "axis of resistance", attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea and disrupting global supply chains.

The US and its allies have responded with economic sanctions, airstrikes, and a naval campaign, but the Houthis remain resilient, continuing to hold the Red Sea hostage and causing enough damage to make passage through these waters unacceptably risky for most commercial shippers.

A more effective response to the Houthi threat is possible, but it will not be led by the US, which has much less influence within Yemen than many neighboring countries. Instead, Saudi Arabia and its partners must leverage the Houthis' greatest vulnerability—the long-term economic viability of their regime—and convince the group to rein in its aggression.

North Korea's Growing Involvement in Russia's War in Ukraine

North Korea's growing involvement in Russia's war in Ukraine is causing alarm among the US and its allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that nearly 10,000 North Korean soldiers are being prepared to join Russian forces, warning that any third country involvement in the conflict could be the "first step to a world war."

North Korea has sent military support to Russia, including artillery rounds, ballistic missiles, and anti-tank rockets. US officials have expressed concern over North Korea's increasing support for Russia, which is creating further instability in Europe.

North Korea's involvement in the Ukraine war is deepening military cooperation between the two countries and increasing regional tensions with China. Diplomats have expressed opposition to "any unilateral attempts to change the status quo" in Indo-Pacific waters and "unlawful maritime claims" in the South China Sea.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have spiked since 2022, with North Korea increasing its weapons testing activities and threats in response to Russia's war in Ukraine.


Further Reading:

Battle Lines: China’s wargames, a royal trip to Sudan border - The Telegraph

Everything we know about North Korean troops joining Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - The Independent

If Trump wins the election, US cities are at risk of military takeovers and mass deportations - The Guardian US

In Countering the Houthis, America Should Lead From Behind - Foreign Affairs Magazine

North Korea’s special forces in Russia ready to join Putin’s war in Ukraine, South Korea’s spy agency says - The Independent

One of Russia's biggest automakers said it's struggling under Western sanctions after frontline complaints that its vehicles are falling apart - Business Insider

South Korea Accuses Pyongyang Of Sending Soldiers To Russia - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Tensions Rising in the Horn of Africa - Council on Foreign Relations

Tensions flare between North and South Korea - Monocle

U.S. warns of growing nuclear and missile threats by North Korean military in support of Russia - PBS NewsHour

US imposes first sanctions on Chinese firms for making weapons for Russia’s war in Ukraine - CNN

Themes around the World:

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Regulatory Modernization and Market Governance

Recent reforms have simplified foreign investor access, eliminated complex qualification barriers, and improved market transparency. However, challenges persist around regulatory clarity, governance standards, and foreign ownership limits, requiring ongoing attention from international investors and partners.

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Energy Infrastructure Under Persistent Attack

Russian missile strikes continue to target Ukraine’s energy grid, causing widespread power outages and threatening industrial operations. The instability in energy supply poses significant risks for manufacturing, logistics, and foreign investment in affected regions.

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UK Industrial Strategy and Investment Zones

The UK’s 10-year growth plan focuses on attracting investment in finance, life sciences, clean energy, and manufacturing. New investment zones, freeports, and public-private partnerships are designed to enhance competitiveness and supply chain innovation.

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Political Stability and Investment Climate

Egypt’s government is implementing reforms to attract investment and maintain stability amid regional conflicts and economic pressures. Progress in regulatory frameworks, international partnerships, and infrastructure development is improving the investment climate, though risks remain from external shocks and domestic challenges.

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Environmental Regulations and Sustainability Initiatives

France's stringent environmental policies drive corporate sustainability efforts and green investments. Compliance requirements influence manufacturing processes, supply chain configurations, and market access, shaping business strategies in alignment with global ESG trends.

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Rare Earth Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Japan’s heavy reliance on Chinese rare earths—still 60-70% of supply—faces new threats as Beijing considers tighter export permit reviews. Prolonged restrictions could cost Japan up to $17 billion annually, impacting global supply chains for EVs, electronics, and defense.

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Energy Transition and Nuclear Expansion

France’s €52 billion commitment to new nuclear reactors underscores its strategy for energy security and decarbonization. However, hardware shortages, dependence on Asian imports, and rising energy nationalism across Europe create operational and investment uncertainties for energy-intensive industries and infrastructure projects.

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Gaza Conflict and Regional Instability

The ongoing Gaza ceasefire and unresolved conflict with Hamas continue to shape Israel’s risk profile, with persistent violence, humanitarian crises, and political uncertainty. This instability affects trade, investment, and supply chains, and raises the risk of regional escalation, impacting business confidence and operational continuity.

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Investment Stagnation and Infrastructure Cuts

Sanctions and war have led to a 20% cut in Russian rail investment and stagnating GDP, with industrial output declining. Foreign direct investment is constrained, and infrastructure projects face delays, raising long-term risks for investors and operators.

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Geopolitical Tensions in Taiwan Strait

Heightened military activities and diplomatic frictions around Taiwan increase regional instability. This poses risks to shipping lanes and semiconductor supply chains critical to global technology industries.

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Currency Volatility and Financial Markets

Fluctuations in the Brazilian real and financial market volatility pose risks for international investors and businesses engaged in trade. Currency instability affects pricing, profit margins, and hedging strategies, necessitating careful financial planning and risk management.

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Political Uncertainty and Governance Risks

Upcoming municipal elections and ongoing political realignment introduce governance risks, affecting policy stability and business confidence. Service delivery failures and coalition instability in major metros remain concerns for international investors and supply chain operators.

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Comprehensive Reform Momentum Accelerates

India's 2025-26 reform wave—GST 2.0, new Income Tax Act, labour codes, FDI liberalization, and legal modernization—has improved compliance, reduced business costs, and boosted investor confidence, creating a more predictable, competitive, and growth-oriented environment for international businesses.

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Rising Non-Oil Private Sector Growth

Non-oil private sector activity continues to expand, supported by Vision 2030 reforms and strong domestic demand. The Riyad Bank PMI remains well above 50, with real GDP growth forecast at 4–4.6% in 2026, signaling robust opportunities for international investors in diversified sectors.

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COVID-19 Economic Recovery

The pace of economic recovery post-pandemic remains uneven, with sectors like tourism and retail still vulnerable. Ongoing health measures and economic stimulus policies shape consumer demand and investment climate.

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Asia’s Growing Role in Russian Trade

China and India now account for the majority of Russian energy exports, but only at steep discounts (up to 50%). This shift has not compensated for lost Western markets, and exposes Russian trade to new geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties.

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Energy Export Dependencies

Russia's economy heavily relies on energy exports, especially oil and gas. Fluctuations in global energy prices and geopolitical tensions affecting pipeline routes influence international supply chains and energy security strategies, impacting global markets and investment decisions in energy infrastructure.

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Political Uncertainty Ahead of Elections

Political volatility, including Parliament dissolution and upcoming elections, creates uncertainty for business operations and investment planning. Coalition dynamics and reform agendas may alter regulatory environments, affecting strategic decisions for international investors.

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Domestic Consumption and Innovation Push

China is prioritizing domestic demand and innovation-led growth, launching initiatives to boost consumption and foster high-tech sectors. This shift aims to reduce reliance on exports, presenting new opportunities for global firms in consumer goods, services, and advanced manufacturing.

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Regulatory Overhaul and Business Reforms

India is undergoing significant regulatory changes, including new acquisition financing rules, streamlined business laws, and enhanced ease of doing business. These reforms support structured growth, compliance, and transparency, reducing operational risks for international investors and businesses.

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Energy Transition and Regulatory Environment

The U.S. commitment to clean energy and regulatory shifts towards sustainability impact energy costs and infrastructure investments. This transition affects industries reliant on fossil fuels and opens opportunities in renewable energy sectors.

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Energy Costs and Power Reliability

South Africa’s energy-intensive industries face existential threats from high electricity costs, despite recent improvements in Eskom’s stability. Regulatory changes now allow distressed sectors to collaborate on energy procurement, but power costs and supply reliability remain critical risks for manufacturing, mining, and export sectors.

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Industrial Investment Hurdles Persist

Regulatory delays in spatial planning and infrastructure bottlenecks continue to impede industrial zone development. Despite increased foreign investment, unresolved issues in permitting, utilities, and logistics pose risks to manufacturing and supply chain expansion.

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Shifting International Investment Strategies

Due to domestic uncertainty, 56% of French business leaders now prioritize international expansion, especially in Europe and Southeast Asia. This trend reflects efforts to mitigate local risks, diversify revenue, and secure talent, but may slow France’s domestic reindustrialization agenda.

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Regional Geopolitical Risks and Mediation Role

Egypt’s active mediation in the Gaza ceasefire and regional conflicts underscores its strategic diplomatic position. While this enhances stability prospects, ongoing tensions in neighboring countries pose risks to investor confidence, supply chain continuity, and cross-border operations.

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Persistent Political and Corruption Risks

High-profile anti-corruption raids, including against opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, highlight ongoing governance challenges. Political infighting and corruption allegations can delay reforms, undermine EU accession, and complicate the investment climate, despite progress in institutional reforms and external oversight.

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Energy Supply and Pricing Volatility

The UK is experiencing significant energy market fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and shifts in global energy supply chains. Rising energy costs affect manufacturing and operational expenses, prompting companies to reassess energy sourcing and invest in renewable alternatives to mitigate risks and ensure business continuity.

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Energy Sector Transition Challenges

Canada's shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy is reshaping its trade and investment landscape. The transition impacts supply chains, especially in oil and gas sectors, influencing international partnerships and capital flows. Businesses must navigate regulatory changes and infrastructure investments amid global decarbonization efforts.

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Renewable Energy and Green Transition

Saudi Arabia is accelerating renewable energy deployment, with solar and wind capacity in the MENA region projected to rise tenfold by 2040. Major joint ventures and new energy facilities, like CATL’s Riyadh center, support the Kingdom’s decarbonization and industrial diversification, creating new investment and supply chain opportunities.

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Diplomatic and Economic Relations Under Strain

US-Denmark tensions over Greenland have strained diplomatic and economic ties, risking disruption to trade, investment flows, and cooperation in sectors such as energy, logistics, and technology. Businesses must monitor evolving bilateral relations for potential regulatory and market impacts.

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Resilient Economic Growth Amid Global Headwinds

Vietnam’s GDP grew by 8% in 2025, outperforming regional peers despite US tariffs and global uncertainties. Export-led growth, manufacturing strength, and political stability underpin robust performance, though high openness leaves the economy vulnerable to external shocks and trade policy changes.

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Transformation of Labor Market Dynamics

Israel's labor market has shifted from Palestinian to foreign workers, with over 61,000 new permits issued in 2025. This structural change impacts construction, agriculture, and services, raising concerns about labor standards, costs, and long-term workforce stability.

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China’s Beef Tariffs Hit Exports

China imposed a 55% tariff on Brazilian beef exceeding a 1.1 million ton quota, threatening up to US$3 billion in export revenue for 2026. This measure disrupts supply chains and forces Brazilian producers to seek new markets and renegotiate trade terms.

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Supply Chain Vulnerability and Diversification

Recent Chinese military exercises exposed Taiwan’s dependence on imported energy and key raw materials, highlighting vulnerabilities in global supply chains. International firms are accelerating efforts to diversify sourcing and production to mitigate risks of blockade or disruption.

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Shift Toward Defensive Industries

Japanese defense and aerospace stocks rallied amid rising geopolitical tensions and export controls. International investors should note the sector’s growing strategic importance, but also the risks of regulatory changes and supply chain bottlenecks linked to regional security dynamics.

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Labor Market Dynamics and Workforce Shortages

Tight labor markets and skill shortages in critical sectors affect operational capacities and wage inflation. Businesses face challenges in recruitment and retention, influencing investment in automation and workforce development.