UK-Russia sanctions escalation compliance

The UK is tightening Russia measures, including designations and a planned ban on maritime services (transport, insurance) supporting Russian LNG to third countries, alongside a lower oil price cap. This elevates due-diligence needs for shipping, energy, and finance.

India-Canada Energy and Minerals Reset

Canada and India are negotiating broad accords on energy, critical minerals, and AI, aiming to double bilateral trade by 2030. This diplomatic reset opens new markets for Canadian resources, supports supply chain diversification, and strengthens Canada’s position in Asian growth markets.

Critical Minerals Investment Surge

Brazil is attracting substantial foreign investment in critical minerals, including rare earths, graphite, and nickel. Strategic partnerships with the US and EU are developing, positioning Brazil as a key supplier for clean energy and technology supply chains, and diversifying away from China.

Foreign investment screening delays

FIRB/treasury foreign investment approvals remain slower and costlier, increasing execution risk for M&A and greenfield projects. Business groups report unpredictable milestones and missed statutory timelines, while fees have risen sharply (e.g., up to ~A$1.2m for >A$2bn investments), affecting deal economics.

High-tech FDI and semiconductors

FDI remains resilient and shifts toward higher-value electronics and semiconductors, with 2025 registered FDI at US$38.42bn and realized US$27.62bn; early-2026 approvals exceed US$1bn in key northern provinces. This supports supply-chain diversification but increases competition for talent and sites.

Weak growth, high household debt

Thailand’s growth outlook remains subdued (around 1.6–2% in 2026; ~2% projected by officials), constrained by tight credit and household debt near 86.8% of GDP (higher including informal debt). This depresses domestic demand, raises NPL risk, and limits pricing power.

Sanctions enforcement and shadow fleet

Washington is intensifying sanctions implementation, including congressional moves targeting Russia’s shadow tanker network and broader enforcement on Iran/Russia-linked actors. Shipping, trading, and financial firms face higher screening expectations, voyage-risk analytics needs, and potential secondary sanctions exposure.

Currency Volatility and Inflation Pressures

The Egyptian pound has experienced depreciation against the US dollar, though foreign reserves reached record highs. Inflation, while declining to 12.3%, remains a concern. Monetary easing is expected in 2026, with interest rates projected to fall, impacting investment and import costs.

US–China trade war resurgence

Tariffs, export controls, and screening of China-linked supply chains remain structurally entrenched. Even during tactical truces, businesses face sudden policy reversals, higher landed costs, customs enforcement, and intensified due-diligence on origin, routing, and end-use across jurisdictions.

Verteidigungsboom und Beschaffung

Deutschlands Aufrüstung beschleunigt Investitionen: über 108 Mrd. € stehen für Modernisierung bereit; zusätzlich 536 Mio. € für loitering munitions, Rahmen bis 4,3 Mrd. €. Chancen entstehen für Zulieferer, Dual-Use-Technologien und IT, aber Exportkontrollen, Compliance und Kapazitätsengpässe nehmen zu.

Offshore Wind Expansion and Grid Challenges

Germany leads Europe’s offshore wind push, targeting €1 trillion investment and enhanced energy security. However, regulatory delays, auction cancellations, and underdeveloped grid infrastructure threaten project viability, investor confidence, and the pace of decarbonization, with direct implications for energy-intensive industries.

Cross-strait security and blockade risk

Escalating PLA air‑sea operations and Taiwan’s drills raise probability of disruption in the Taiwan Strait. Any quarantine or blockade scenario would delay container flows, spike marine insurance, and force costly rerouting for electronics, machinery, and intermediate goods supply chains.

Critical Minerals and Geopolitical Competition

Indonesia’s dominance in nickel and tin places it at the center of US-China rivalry for critical minerals. While new trade agreements promise investment, weak governance and inconsistent downstream policies risk Indonesia becoming a raw material supplier rather than a value-added manufacturing hub.

Energy Crisis and Cost Relief Measures

Persistent energy shortages and high tariffs have hampered industrial output. Recent government relief measures, including tariff reductions and export refinance schemes, offer short-term support but underscore ongoing risks for manufacturers and supply chain reliability.

Economic Statecraft and Export Controls

China has refined its use of sanctions and export controls, especially on rare earths and critical minerals, to defend strategic interests and respond to Western pressure. These measures heighten supply chain vulnerability and compliance risks for foreign firms.

Critical minerals bloc and rare-earth strategy

South Korea chairs the US-led FORGE initiative while also building a China hotline and joint committee to stabilize rare-earth imports. Policy includes easing public-sector overseas resource limits and funding mine access, reshaping sourcing, compliance, and procurement for EVs, chips, and defense.

China and Russia Strategic Partnerships

Iran’s economic and security dependence on China and Russia has deepened, with China absorbing over 80% of Iran’s oil exports and providing military, technological, and diplomatic support. These partnerships offer Iran lifelines but also expose foreign investors to secondary sanctions and geopolitical entanglements.

Orta Koridor lojistik fırsatı

Trans-Hazar Orta Koridoru, Çin‑Avrupa transit süresini deniz yolundaki 35–50 günden 18–25 güne düşürebiliyor. Türkiye’nin demiryolu/liman bağlantıları, depolama ve gümrük verimliliği yatırımları önem kazanıyor; kapasite darboğazı ve sınır geçiş gecikmeleri operasyonel risk.

Nearshoring bajo presión competitiva

Aunque el nearshoring sigue atrayendo IED en polos fronterizos, el sector maquilador reporta cancelación de programas IMMEX y pérdida de empleos, con capital migrando a países con incentivos. Cambios laborales/costos y la sustitución de insumos chinos (certificaciones) frenan proyectos.

US-Canada Trade Tensions Escalate

The US has threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian exports if Canada deepens trade with China, creating significant uncertainty for supply chains, cross-border investment, and the upcoming USMCA renegotiation. This volatility directly impacts market access and business planning for international firms.

Security and Organized Crime Risks

Persistent insecurity, including theft and extortion, remains a top obstacle for business operations. Nearly half of Mexican firms report crime victimization, leading to higher security costs and operational risks, particularly in key industrial regions outside secure zones like Coahuila.

Ports and freight connectivity upgrades

Karachi logistics is improving via DP World–Pakistan Railways Pipri freight corridor and new automated bulk-handling equipment, aiming to shift containers from road to rail and reduce turnaround times. Execution risk persists, but successful delivery lowers inland logistics costs and delays.

Падение нефтегазовых доходов

Доходы бюджета от нефти и газа снижаются: в январе 2026 — 393 млрд руб. против 587 млрд в декабре и 1,12 трлн годом ранее; в 2025 падение на 24% до 8,5 трлн руб. Это усиливает налоговое давление и бюджетные риски.

EU Energy Decoupling and Bans

The EU has legislated a full ban on Russian LNG and pipeline gas imports by 2027, with plans to phase out Russian oil as well. This structural decoupling will reshape European energy markets, accelerate diversification, and impact global energy flows, with significant implications for Russian revenues and EU supply chains.

ESG Regulation and Compliance Shift

Brazil is implementing robust ESG regulations, including mandatory sustainability reporting by 2026 and credit restrictions for companies linked to illegal deforestation. These measures are reshaping corporate governance, access to finance, and export eligibility, especially for land-intensive sectors.

Labor law rewrite by 2026

Parliament plans to finalize a new labor law before October 2026 to comply with Constitutional Court directions and adjust the Omnibus Law framework. Revisions could change hiring, severance, and compliance burdens—material for labor-intensive investors, sourcing decisions, and HR risk.

IMF programme drives policy

IMF-backed reforms through 2027 anchor fiscal discipline, privatisation and revenue mobilisation, but also constrain policy flexibility. Review outcomes shape investor sentiment, sovereign risk pricing and the operating environment for imports, pricing, and capital repatriation across sectors.

Strategic Realignment of Global Trade Partnerships

Major economies like India and the EU are forging new trade and security agreements, partly as a hedge against US and Russian policy unpredictability. These realignments shift global trade flows, regulatory environments, and investment strategies, with long-term consequences for multinational business operations.

Resilience and Diversification of Manufacturing

TSMC and other Taiwanese firms are accelerating overseas expansion, notably in the US, Germany, and Japan, to mitigate geopolitical and operational risks. While Taiwan remains the core hub, a gradual shift in advanced manufacturing capacity abroad is underway.

Mining regulation and exploration bottlenecks

Mining investment is constrained by slow permitting and regulatory uncertainty. Exploration spend fell to about R781 million in 2024 from R6.2 billion in 2006, and permitting delays reportedly run 18–24 months. This deters greenfield projects, affects critical-mineral supply pipelines.

China-tech decoupling feedback loop

U.S. controls and tariffs are accelerating reciprocal Chinese policies to reduce reliance on U.S. chips and financial exposure. This dynamic increases regulatory fragmentation, raises substitution risk for U.S. technology vendors, and forces global firms to design products, data flows, and financing for bifurcated regimes.

US trade talks and tariff risk

Vietnam is negotiating a more “reciprocal” trade framework with the US amid tariff pressure and scrutiny of Vietnam’s export surplus. Outcomes could reshape duties, rules-of-origin enforcement and supply-chain routing, affecting apparel, electronics, and China-plus-one strategies.

Sanctions and Decoupling from Russian Energy

The EU is phasing out Russian gas by 2027 and expanding sanctions on Russia’s defense and energy sectors. Ukraine urges further asset freezes and restrictions. This shift is reshaping regional energy markets and supply chains, creating both risks and opportunities for international operators.

Complex Sanctions and Regulatory Landscape

Ukraine’s regulatory environment is shaped by evolving sanctions on Russia and new trade controls. Businesses face compliance challenges, especially regarding dual-use goods and financial transactions, requiring constant monitoring of legal and operational risks.

Gwadar logistics and incentives evolve

Gwadar Airport operations, free-zone incentives (23-year tax holiday, duty-free machinery) and improved highways aim to deepen re-export and processing activity. The opportunity is new distribution hubs; the risk is execution capacity, security costs, and regulatory clarity for investors.

Foreign investment approvals and regulation drag

Multinational CEOs report slower, costlier approvals and heavier compliance. OECD ranks Australia highly restrictive for foreign investment screening; nearly half of applications exceeded statutory timelines, and fees have risen sharply. Deal certainty, transaction costs and time-to-market are increasingly material planning factors.