Cyber, illicit finance, and compliance risk

Sanctions evasion activity—often involving front firms, dual-use procurement, and emerging crypto channels—elevates fraud and cyber risk in Iran-linked trade. Firms should expect higher KYC/KYB standards, end-use controls, and increased scrutiny on technology exports and industrial equipment.

Suez Canal security volatility

Red Sea conflict dynamics keep Suez transits highly uncertain: major liners have alternated between returning and rerouting via the Cape, depressing foreign-currency toll income (about $9.6bn in 2023 to ~$3.6bn in 2024) and disrupting lead times, freight rates, and insurance costs.

Energy costs and network charges

Ofgem’s price cap falls 7% to £1,641 from 1 April 2026 after shifting 75% of Renewables Obligation costs to taxation and ending ECO. However, higher grid/network charges offset savings, keeping energy input costs volatile for energy‑intensive operations and sites.

Policy effectiveness gaps in some PLIs

Not all localization incentives are delivering. The telecom PLI disbursed only ~15% of its outlay, and 19 of 42 applicants (including Samsung) did not claim incentives, reflecting weak order pipelines and B2B concentration. Investors should stress-test demand assumptions and local value-add.

Maritime logistics localization push

A ₹10,000-crore container-manufacturing program targets import substitution from China, scaling to 750,000 TEU/year initially with 60% local content (rising to 80%). If executed, it reduces shipping supply bottlenecks and supports trade resilience, but needs demand commitments.

Port capacity expansion, logistics gains

Cai Mep–Thi Vai handled 711,429 TEUs in Jan 2026 (+9% y/y) with 48 weekly international routes, over 20 direct to the US and Europe. New expressway and bridge links could cut factory-to-port transit from ~2 hours to 45–60 minutes, lowering logistics costs.

Juros, fiscal e custo de capital

Cortes da Selic e estabilidade macro em 2026 são vistos como condicionados a ajuste fiscal; projeções de mercado citam IPCA perto de 3,8% e câmbio ao redor de R$5,40. O quadro afeta custo de financiamento, valuation, crédito corporativo e viabilidade de projetos intensivos em capital e infraestrutura.

Reconstruction tenders and SOE governance

Large donor-backed rebuilding pipelines are expanding, yet governance, procurement integrity and state-owned enterprise reform remain under scrutiny. For investors, opportunity is high in infrastructure and utilities, but requires robust partner vetting, contract safeguards and compliance.

M&A canlanması ve özelleştirmeler

Deloitte’a göre 2025’te Türkiye’de birleşme-devralma değeri 16,2 milyar dolara (+%88) çıktı; 500 milyon dolar üzeri 7 “mega” işlem toplamın ~%44’ünü oluşturdu. Yabancı alıcılar 6,9 milyar dolar ile geri dönerken, rekabet onay süreçleri önem kazanır.

Mining sector liberalization and expansion

Saudi mining is scaling fast under Vision 2030: Ma’aden posted 2025 profit up 156% to SR7.35bn and record phosphate output (6.72m tonnes). New licenses and improved global rankings signal opportunities in minerals, services, and downstream processing.

Seguridad logística y robo carga

La violencia y el robo de carga impactan rutas clave y puertos. En 2025, 82% de robos se concentró en Centro (51%) y Bajío (31%); alimentos/bebidas 31% del botín. Bloqueos en occidente afectaron Manzanillo‑Guadalajara y generaron retrasos y capacidad limitada.

Power security and tariff volatility

Load shedding has eased, but Eskom warns of renewed risk around 2029–2030 as 5.26GW coal retires; tariffs continue rising and drive self-generation. Energy-intensive smelters seek discounts, signalling competitiveness risks for mining, manufacturing, and new investments.

Large FTAs expand market access

India is advancing major FTAs, including a concluded EU–India deal that could remove pharma tariffs (2–11%) and cut medical-device duties (up to 27.5%) to zero. This improves regulated-market access, supports longer supply agreements, and raises compliance demands.

Foreign procurement access loosening

Saudi Arabia reversed parts of the regional-headquarters procurement restriction, enabling foreign firms to win government contracts via controlled exemptions on Etimad. This improves near-term market access for specialized suppliers, but bid-acceptance conditions and compliance documentation remain stringent.

Enflasyon katılığı, sıkı finansman

Şubat’ta enflasyon aylık %2,96, yıllık %31,53; gıda %6,89 artışla belirleyici. Jeopolitik enerji şoklarıyla gecelik faiz ~%40’a yükseldi; politika faizi %37’de tutulabilir. Kredi maliyeti, talep ve yatırım fizibiliteleri üzerinde baskı artar.

Clima de inversión y certeza

El Plan México busca reactivar inversión, pero persisten señales de debilidad: menor confianza empresarial, caída en inversión de maquinaria y construcción y bajo componente de proyectos “greenfield” (US$6.5bn de US$41bn hasta 3T2025). La incertidumbre regulatoria limita decisiones.

Energy export diversification to Asia

Canadian firms are expanding west-coast energy export capacity, with LPG exports to Asia already significant and terminal expansions planned through 2026. Diversifying beyond the U.S. supports price realization and resilience, but requires port, rail, and regulatory reliability plus long-term offtake contracts.

Middle East shipping and energy shocks

Escalation risk in the Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz is disrupting Indian exports: diversions via Cape add roughly 14–20 days, freight and insurance rise, and some agri exports (e.g., basmati) face port backlogs. Higher oil prices would pressure input costs and the rupee.

Acordo UE–Mercosul em vigor

A UE decidiu aplicar provisoriamente o acordo UE–Mercosul e o Senado brasileiro aprovou o texto, aguardando assinatura presidencial. O tratado tende a eliminar tarifas para 91% dos bens, alterando competitividade, regras de origem e estratégias de acesso ao mercado europeu.

Critical minerals export licensing

China is expanding and enforcing export controls on dual-use and strategic materials, including rare-earth-related items and metals like gallium/germanium. New restrictions (including toward Japan) increase procurement uncertainty, lead times, and price volatility for electronics, aerospace, defense-adjacent, and clean-tech supply chains.

USMCA review and North America risk

The 2026 USMCA review is starting in bilateral tracks and includes credible withdrawal threats. Firms face uncertainty around rules of origin, external tariff alignment, and supply-chain security demands. Any shift would disrupt tightly integrated autos, electronics, and agriculture trade across a ~$2T regional corridor.

Investment-sector liberalisation agenda

Government plans to revise the investment “closed sectors” list to expand private participation. While supportive for FDI and PPP pipelines, investors remain in wait-and-see mode on which sectors open and implementation details, especially licensing, central-local harmonisation, and competitive neutrality.

Critical minerals and mining reset

Mexico is canceling idle mining concessions (1,126; ~889,500 ha) while pursuing a U.S. critical-minerals plan that could catalyze up to ~$43B investment over six years. Legal certainty, security and environmental permitting will determine whether projects advance and supply chains diversify from China.

Critical minerals industrial policy surge

Ottawa is deploying over C$3.6B in programs, including a C$2B sovereign fund and C$1.5B infrastructure fund, to accelerate critical minerals projects and processing. Faster permitting and allied partnerships may attract FDI, but competition for capital and Indigenous consultation remain key constraints.

Geopolitical competition in critical minerals

US access to Indonesian nickel and China’s entrenched investment create cross‑pressure on investors. Potential retaliation through slower tech transfer or reduced Chinese capital, plus shifting battery chemistries away from nickel, raises strategic uncertainty for EV plans.

Critical minerals geopolitics and partnerships

Brazil is positioning rare earths and other critical minerals as strategic, courting EU, US and India partnerships and funding. Opportunity is large but hinges on permitting, processing capacity, and geopolitical screening—impacting FDI, offtakes, technology transfer, and supply security planning.

Payments fragmentation and crypto channels

Cross-border settlement increasingly shifts toward yuan use, alternative messaging, and emerging regulation for bank-run crypto exchanges and stablecoins. While enabling trade under sanctions, it adds AML/CTF complexity, FX liquidity risk, and heightened scrutiny for counterparties handling digital-asset rails.

FX volatility and hot-money

Geopolitical risk triggered $2–$8bn portfolio outflows from local debt, pushing the pound to record lows beyond EGP 52/$ and lifting import costs. Firms face repricing risk, tighter liquidity, and greater need for hedging, local funding, and robust cash management.

Semiconductor Geopolitics And Re‑shoring

Semiconductors dominate Taiwan’s US exports (about 76%). Commitments to invest ~US$250bn in US chip/AI/energy capacity reduce tariff risk but accelerate supply-chain redistribution, IP/security compliance demands, and potential margin pressure for Taiwan-based fabs and suppliers.

Foreign investment and security screening

CFIUS scrutiny of sensitive foreign stakes and the Outbound Investment Security Program are tightening deal timetables and disclosure expectations in semiconductors, AI, robotics, and gaming/data platforms. Multinationals should plan for mitigation agreements, longer closing periods, and higher governance and data-localization costs.

Market-stability interventions and capital-market rules

During volatility, authorities used ad-hoc tools—TL-settled FX forwards, suspending one-week repo auctions, and temporary short-selling bans—to stabilize markets. Such measures can reduce liquidity and price discovery, affecting treasury operations, fundraising timing, and cross-border capital planning.

China growth downshift and stimulus mix

China set its lowest growth target in decades (4.5–5% for 2026) amid deflation pressures, property malaise and local debt. Targeted fiscal tools (ultra-long bonds, local special bonds) may stabilise demand unevenly, altering sales forecasts and credit risk.

Critical Minerals Supply Security Push

India is negotiating critical-minerals partnerships with Brazil, Canada, France and the Netherlands, building on a Germany pact, focused on lithium and rare earths plus processing technology. This supports EVs, renewables and defence supply chains, while reducing China concentration risk.

High-tech rebound amid manpower strain

Tech remains central to exports (about 57%) and a major GDP contributor, with funding rising to about $15.6B in 2025. Yet reservist call-ups and prior brain-drain episodes create delivery and talent risks for R&D, SaaS operations, and multinational captive centers.

Critical minerals concentration risk

U.S. dependence on China for inputs like gallium and other strategic materials remains acute, while Beijing’s export-control suspensions have clear expiry deadlines. Companies should plan dual sourcing, strategic stockpiles, and qualification of non-China suppliers to avoid production stoppages.

Renewed US tariff escalation risk

Washington has opened Section 301 probes into alleged Chinese industrial overcapacity and forced-labour-linked imports, with potential new tariffs by mid-year. This reintroduces abrupt duty risk, pricing shocks, and compliance burdens across autos, batteries, chemicals, electronics and solar supply chains.