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Mission Grey Daily Brief - October 14, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The Middle East remains a volatile region with escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia. Military action and political posturing could have significant implications for regional stability and global energy markets. In East Asia, China and Taiwan are engaged in a trade dispute, with China threatening further measures in response to Taiwan's stance on independence. The Horn of Africa, a strategic region for global trade, is witnessing evolving alliances and realignments, with Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea playing pivotal roles. Meanwhile, Russia's use of a Soviet-era howitzer in Ukraine raises questions about its military capabilities and potential arms suppliers.

Middle East Tensions and Energy Markets

The Middle East is witnessing heightened tensions with military actions and political posturing that could have far-reaching consequences. Israel, Iran, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia are at the centre of this turmoil.

Israel, Iran, and Gaza are embroiled in a complex conflict with military strikes and political rhetoric intensifying. Israel, backed by the United States, is preparing to retaliate against Iran for its recent missile attacks. Iran, on the other hand, has warned of counterattacks on oil installations in the Gulf, which could disrupt global energy markets. This potential disruption is compounded by Saudi Arabia's threat to flood the market with oil, driving down prices and potentially impacting Russia's wartime economy.

Saudi Arabia, a key US ally, has received approval for $2.2 billion in weapons sales from the US, strengthening its military capabilities. This move is part of the US strategy to counter Iran's influence in the region. However, Saudi Arabia's recent statements on Israel and Palestine have complicated its relationship with the US, leading to a temporary freeze on US-backed plans for Saudi-Israeli normalization.

The Middle East is a critical region for global energy markets. Military actions and political decisions in this region can significantly impact oil prices, energy security, and global economic stability. Russia, heavily reliant on oil revenue, is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices. Saudi Arabia's threat to flood the market with oil could create a crisis for Russia's economy, limiting its ability to finance its military operations.

China-Taiwan Trade Dispute

China and Taiwan are engaged in a trade dispute, with China threatening further measures in response to Taiwan's stance on independence. China, which views Taiwan as its territory, has denounced a speech by Taiwan's President Lai Ching-Te, accusing him of promoting separatist ideas. Taiwan, under the Democratic Progressive Party, has not lifted trade restrictions on mainland China, further straining relations.

China's Ministry of Commerce has announced that it is studying additional trade measures against Taiwan, potentially including tariffs and other economic pressures. This escalation comes after President Lai's speech, where he asserted Taiwan's right to self-determination and criticized China's claims of sovereignty.

The Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), signed in 2010, has faced challenges with China reinstating tariffs on 134 items from Taiwan in May 2024. Taiwanese officials have expressed concerns that China may further pressure Taiwan by ending preferential trading terms within the ECFA.

This trade dispute has political underpinnings, with China's Taiwan Affairs Office attributing the conflict to Taiwan's stance on independence. The political nature of the dispute complicates resolution efforts, as negotiations become more challenging.

Horn of Africa: Evolving Alliances and Regional Stability

The Horn of Africa, a strategic region for global trade, is witnessing evolving alliances and realignments, with Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea playing pivotal roles.

Somalia, situated along the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden, has a long coastline and is crucial for maritime trade routes. The recent trilateral summit in Asmara, Eritrea, brought together the leaders of Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea, signalling a new era of cooperation.


Further Reading:

An Israeli attack on Iran's oil bases could have massive repercussions - and may help Trump's chances of winning election - Sky News

Biden calls on Israeli military to stop strikes on U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon - NBC News

China threatens Taiwan with more trade measures after denouncing president's speech - CNBC

Here is why Somalia, Egypt and Eritrea axis is crucial for the world - Türkiye Today

How Saudi Arabia could create a crisis for Russia's economy - Business Insider

Live updates: The latest on the wars in the Middle East - CNN

Reporter: ‘This seems to be the bloodiest attack on Israel’ away from frontlines since October 7 - CNN

Russia rolled out a Soviet howitzer from the 1940s that Moscow technically shouldn't have in the first place - Business Insider

US approves sale of weapons worth $2.2 billion to Saudi Arabia and UAE - WION

Ukraine Alleges New Killings Of POWs By Russian Forces As Air Strikes Continue - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

United States Elections and Middle East Turmoil: A New Era Emerges - Modern Diplomacy

Themes around the World:

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Transport and Logistics Infrastructure Expansion

Large-scale upgrades, such as Ankara Esenboğa Airport’s expansion and new railway corridors, are set to boost Turkey’s role as a regional logistics hub. Improved connectivity will facilitate trade flows, reduce transit times, and enhance Turkey’s attractiveness for multinational supply chains.

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AI-Driven Semiconductor Expansion

TSMC’s 35% profit surge in Q4 2025, driven by AI chip demand, underpins massive capital expenditures of up to $56 billion in 2026. The AI megatrend is fueling sustained growth, with advanced node technologies (3nm, 2nm) dominating revenue and global market leadership.

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Privatization and PPP Expansion

Saudi Arabia’s new National Privatization Strategy targets over 220 PPP contracts and $64 billion in private investment by 2030. This broadens opportunities for foreign investors in infrastructure, transport, water, and health, while increasing private sector participation and competition.

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Environmental Compliance as Trade Imperative

The EU-Mercosur deal links trade privileges to climate commitments, including adherence to the Paris Agreement and bans on products linked to deforestation. Non-compliance could trigger trade suspensions, making environmental governance a critical factor for exporters and investors in Brazil.

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Expansion of Non-Energy Exports

Russia is targeting a 67% increase in non-energy exports by 2030, focusing on machinery, chemicals, and agriculture. While energy remains dominant, this diversification drive—mainly toward 'friendly' countries—offers new opportunities and risks for foreign investors navigating Russia’s evolving trade landscape.

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Sanctions-Driven Economic Contraction

Years of sanctions, renewed UN measures, and loss of foreign investment have led to near-stagnant GDP growth (0.6% in 2025), technological lag, and rising poverty. Structural reforms are absent, worsening the long-term outlook for international business engagement.

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Regulatory Adjustments Impacting Business

Recent and upcoming regulatory changes span financial markets, healthcare, and foreign labor policy. These reforms seek to enhance business transparency, streamline market operations, and adapt to demographic realities, requiring international firms to closely monitor compliance and adapt strategies.

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Financial Sector Resilience and Growth Outlook

Israel’s economy demonstrates resilience, with strong currency performance, low unemployment, and robust growth forecasts for 2026. Rate cuts and potential normalization agreements could further boost foreign investment and exports, enhancing the country’s attractiveness for global investors.

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Political Risk and 2026 Election Uncertainty

Brazil’s presidential election in October 2026 is a major source of uncertainty for investors. Market sentiment is sensitive to potential shifts in economic policy, fiscal reforms, and institutional stability, with volatility expected in currency and asset prices as the election approaches.

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US Military and Financial Support Remains Critical

The US continues to provide substantial military and financial aid to Israel, underpinning its security and economic resilience. This support shapes Israel’s defense posture, investment climate, and risk environment, but also ties business operations to evolving US-Israel policy dynamics and potential geopolitical backlash.

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US-South Korea Trade Tensions Escalate

The US has raised tariffs on South Korean autos, pharmaceuticals, and other goods from 15% to 25%, reversing previous concessions and straining bilateral relations. This move directly impacts South Korea’s export competitiveness, especially in autos, and adds volatility to global supply chains.

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Green Transition and E-Mobility Expansion

Mexico’s electric vehicle market is set to triple by 2032, supported by government incentives, urban pollution concerns, and major automaker investments. However, limited charging infrastructure and high upfront costs remain barriers, while sustainability goals reshape automotive and energy sectors.

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Record Trade Surplus and Overcapacity

China posted a historic $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, up 20% year-on-year, driven by high-tech and green exports. However, this surplus reflects weak domestic demand and rising global concerns about Chinese overcapacity and potential protectionist backlash.

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Sanctions Enforcement and Geopolitical Risk

France has escalated enforcement of Russia-related sanctions, including high-profile maritime interdictions. This raises compliance risks for energy, shipping, and finance sectors, and signals a stricter stance on trade with sanctioned entities, impacting supply chain security.

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EU-India Free Trade Agreement Signed

The EU and India have concluded a landmark free trade agreement, covering 25% of global GDP. The deal will reduce tariffs—especially on German autos and machinery—boosting exports and diversifying supply chains amid US trade unpredictability and China competition.

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Supply Chain Realignment and China-Plus-One

Rising geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions have accelerated India’s emergence as a preferred alternative to China. Multinationals are increasingly adopting a 'China-Plus-One' strategy, leveraging India’s scale, skilled workforce, and improving infrastructure for diversification and risk mitigation.

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Infrastructure Expansion and Regional Hub Ambitions

Massive investments in transport, ports, and logistics are positioning Egypt as a regional trade and manufacturing hub. Projects like the Suez Canal Economic Zone and logistics corridors aim to enhance supply chain resilience and attract multinational manufacturers seeking regional access.

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Energy Transition and Renewables Surge

Saudi Arabia is rapidly expanding renewable energy capacity, with solar and wind projected to deliver nearly 20% of electricity by 2029. The Kingdom’s energy transition, supported by facilities like CATL’s Riyadh hub, is critical for decarbonization, industrial competitiveness, and compliance with global standards such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

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Global Supply Chain Realignment

US tariff policy has accelerated the diversification of supply chains away from China, with countries like Indonesia and Thailand seeing import growth of 34% and 28% respectively. Businesses are reconfiguring sourcing and logistics, impacting investment strategies and operational resilience.

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Widespread Civil Unrest and Political Instability

Nationwide protests over economic collapse and political repression have resulted in hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests. The instability has led to internet shutdowns and business disruptions, significantly raising operational and security risks for foreign firms.

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Tariff-Driven Supply Chain Reconfiguration

US tariffs have forced businesses to diversify supply chains, reduce inventory holdings, and reconfigure logistics networks. The shift from legacy mega-hubs to intermediate nodes and diversified ports is improving efficiency but increasing operational complexity and costs.

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Shifting Global Trade Alliances

Amid US tensions, France and the EU are accelerating diversification of trade partnerships, finalizing deals with Mercosur, Indonesia, and Japan. This realignment aims to reduce reliance on US markets, but introduces new complexities and risks for multinational supply chains and investment strategies.

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Syria Policy and Regional Security Risks

Turkey’s evolving Syria strategy, focused on eliminating YPG/PKK influence and supporting Syrian state control, aims to stabilize its southern border. While this may improve regional security and trade, ongoing tensions and humanitarian concerns pose risks for cross-border operations and investor confidence.

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Domestic Industry Concerns and Political Debate

The scale of outbound investment and supply chain relocation has sparked debate in Taiwan over potential ‘hollowing out’ of its chip industry and strategic assets. Political opposition and public scrutiny focus on balancing national interests with global integration.

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Sweeping US Sanctions and Oil Restrictions

The US has intensified sanctions on Iran, targeting oil exports and shipping, with new measures including a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. These actions have severely restricted Iran's access to global markets, undermined its fiscal stability, and forced key partners like India to reconsider strategic investments such as the Chabahar port.

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EU Considers Anti-Coercion Measures

In response to US tariffs, the EU is preparing to activate its anti-coercion instrument, potentially restricting US market access and imposing retaliatory tariffs. This unprecedented move could escalate into a full-scale trade war, amplifying risks for Finnish companies.

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US-South Korea Trade Tensions Escalate

The US has raised tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% due to legislative delays in Seoul, impacting autos, lumber, and pharmaceuticals. This escalation threatens South Korea’s export competitiveness, disrupts supply chains, and injects volatility into bilateral and global trade relations.

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Western Sanctions Erode Oil Revenues

Western sanctions and price caps have driven Russia's oil and gas revenues to a five-year low, with a 24% annual decline in 2025. This has severely impacted Russia’s fiscal stability, increasing budget deficits and forcing tax hikes, with direct implications for global energy markets and business operations.

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Infrastructure Expansion and Social Conflict

Major infrastructure projects, such as the Santos-Guarujá tunnel and Amazon waterways, are advancing, attracting foreign investment and improving logistics. However, these projects face social resistance, especially from Indigenous groups, due to environmental and land rights concerns.

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Legal and Institutional Unpredictability

Despite ongoing conflict, investors cite legal uncertainty and institutional inefficiency as greater deterrents than war itself. Prolonged court proceedings, lack of transparency, and unpredictable regulatory enforcement undermine trust, affecting investment decisions and long-term supply chain planning.

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Infrastructure and Logistics Modernization

Investment in logistics and infrastructure is accelerating, with Mexico’s 3PL market projected to grow from $14.4 billion in 2024 to $26.8 billion by 2033. Nearshoring, e-commerce, and public works like the Tren Maya drive demand for advanced warehousing, cross-border transport, and digital supply chain solutions.

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Dollar Weakness and Currency Volatility

The US dollar’s decline, driven by policy choices favoring export competitiveness, is reshaping global trade dynamics. While aiding US exporters, it raises inflation risks, complicates foreign investment, and prompts currency realignment, impacting multinational financial strategies and pricing models.

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US Tariff Pressures and Policy Shifts

A proposed US bill seeks a 15% tariff on imports from countries with trade deficits, including Mexico. Ongoing legal debates and potential new tariffs raise risks for Mexican exports, particularly in automotive and manufacturing, threatening Mexico’s competitive advantage under USMCA.

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Foreign Direct Investment Rebound

Turkey attracted $12.4 billion in FDI in the first 11 months of 2025, a 28% increase year-on-year. The EU accounts for 75% of inflows, with major investments in trade, ICT, and food manufacturing, signaling renewed international investor confidence.

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Energy Transition Policy Uncertainty

Despite record renewable capacity in 2025, France’s energy transition is hampered by policy delays and political debate. Over 70% of energy needs are still met by imported fossil fuels, increasing exposure to global shocks and complicating long-term investment in green infrastructure.

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Escalating US-China Trade Tensions

The US has maintained high tariffs on Chinese goods, with rates reaching 47.5%, resulting in a 28% drop in US imports from China and a 38% fall in exports to China in 2025. This has forced global supply chains to adapt, with Southeast Asia gaining market share, and has increased costs and uncertainty for international businesses.