US-Taiwan Strategic Economic Partnership

Recent agreements deepen US-Taiwan cooperation in AI, advanced technology, and drones, with reduced tariffs and joint supply chain security initiatives. This partnership strengthens Taiwan’s global economic relevance but also draws criticism and countermeasures from China.

Suez Canal Disruptions and Recovery

The Gaza conflict and Red Sea security threats caused Egypt to lose $9 billion in Suez Canal revenue over two years, severely impacting global supply chains and Egypt’s foreign exchange. Gradual resumption of shipping is underway, but risks remain.

Surge in Foreign Direct Investment

Egypt attracted $12.2 billion in foreign investment in 2025, a 20% increase, reflecting improved investor confidence and economic reforms. The government targets further growth, aiming for $145 billion in exports by 2030 and robust annual export growth.

Technology Regulation and Data Security

US regulatory scrutiny over technology, data privacy, and AI is intensifying, with new rules affecting cross-border data flows and digital operations. Companies must adapt to evolving compliance landscapes, impacting investment decisions and digital supply chain strategies.

Tariff Volatility and Litigation Risk

On‑again, off‑again tariff actions and court challenges are driving demand swings and front‑loading. Forecasts show US container imports down 2% YoY in H1 2026, with March -12% and April -7.1%, complicating pricing, contracts, and inventory planning.

Rule-of-law and governance uncertainty

Heightened tensions between government and judiciary raise concerns about institutional independence and regulatory predictability. For investors, this can affect contract enforceability perceptions, dispute resolution confidence, and ESG assessments, influencing cost of capital and FDI appetite.

Strategic Energy Dependency on US LNG

Germany’s rapid shift from Russian to US LNG has created a new energy dependency, with 96% of LNG imports now sourced from the US. This exposes German industry to US political leverage, price volatility, and long-term risks to energy sovereignty and cost competitiveness.

Critical Minerals and Mining Policy Shifts

USMCA renegotiation is spotlighting critical minerals, with Mexico and the US seeking alignment on definitions and supply chain security. Delays in environmental permitting and regulatory clarity hamper mining investment, but reforms could unlock new opportunities in lithium, silver, and other strategic resources.

USMCA 2026 review renegotiation

Washington and Mexico have opened talks to rewrite USMCA ahead of the July review, targeting tougher rules of origin, critical minerals cooperation, and anti-dumping tools. North American manufacturers should prepare for compliance redesign, sourcing shifts, and border-process bottlenecks.

Regional Geopolitical Volatility

The Gaza war and broader regional tensions have directly affected Egypt’s economy, trade, and supply chains. Egypt’s diplomatic efforts for regional stability remain critical, but ongoing volatility poses persistent risks for international business operations.

Sustainable Development And Regulatory Compliance

Vietnam’s wood and agricultural sectors are adapting to stringent international sustainability and legality standards, especially from the US and EU. Compliance with deforestation-free and traceability requirements is now essential for continued access to major export markets.

War-Driven Energy Infrastructure Crisis

Relentless Russian strikes have damaged Ukraine’s energy grid, causing blackouts for millions and threatening business continuity. Over 600 attacks in the past year have forced emergency imports and repairs, with export and industrial production severely impacted, undermining investor confidence and supply chain reliability.

Agricultural Export Resilience and Vulnerability

Despite war, Ukraine’s maritime corridor has shipped 100 million tons of grain since 2023, but attacks on ports have slashed agricultural exports by 47% year-on-year. This volatility threatens global food security and the stability of agri-business supply chains.

Digital Blackouts and Technology Restrictions

Iran’s government has imposed repeated internet blackouts and tightened technology controls to suppress dissent, disrupting business operations, cross-border communications, and digital commerce. These restrictions have also driven a black market for smuggled technology and hindered foreign investment in Iran’s digital sector.

Labor Market Tightness and Immigration Policy

US manufacturing and tech sectors face acute labor shortages, with 600,000 vacancies in 2025. Immigration reforms for skilled workers are under discussion, but persistent tightness may drive up labor costs and disrupt expansion plans for global investors.

Property slump and policy easing

Reports indicate easing of “three red lines” developer leverage oversight, signaling stabilization intent after defaults. Yet falling prices and weak confidence constrain growth and local-government revenue, affecting demand forecasts, supplier solvency, and payment/collection risk in China operations.

Sanctions enforcement intensifies at sea

UK and allies are escalating action against Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’, including interdictions, proposed boarding powers and broader maritime-services bans. Shipping, insurers, traders and banks face higher compliance burdens, detention risk, route disruption and potentially higher freight and war-risk premiums.

Energia: gás, capacidade e tarifas

Leilões de reserva de capacidade em março e revisões regulatórias buscam garantir segurança energética e reduzir custos de térmicas a gás. Gargalos de transmissão e curtailment elevam risco operacional e custo de energia, importante para indústria e data centers.

Higher-for-longer interest rates

The Federal Reserve is pausing further rate cuts with inflation still pressured partly by tariffs. Elevated funding costs and a stronger risk premium weigh on capex, real estate, and leveraged trade finance, while FX volatility complicates pricing, hedging, and repatriation strategies.

Rusya yaptırımları ve uyum riski

AB’nin Rus petrolüne yönelik yaptırımları sertleştirmeyi tartışması ve rafine ürünlerde dolaylı akışları hedeflemesi, Türkiye üzerinden ticarette uyum/itibar riskini artırıyor. Bankacılık, sigorta, denizcilik ve ihracatçıların “yeniden ihracat” kontrollerini güçlendirmesi gerekebilir.

Juros altos e virada monetária

A Selic foi mantida em 15% e o BC sinaliza cortes a partir de março, condicionados a inflação e credibilidade fiscal. Volatilidade eleitoral e pass-through cambial podem atrasar a flexibilização, afetando financiamento, consumo e valuation de ativos.

Labor Market Reforms and Corporate Impact

South Korea is enacting sweeping labor reforms to extend protections to up to 8.6 million freelancers and platform workers. While aiming to reduce inequality, these measures could increase compliance costs, heighten labor market rigidity, and accelerate automation in business operations.

Critical Minerals and Geopolitical Competition

Indonesia’s dominance in nickel and tin places it at the center of US-China rivalry for critical minerals. While new trade agreements promise investment, weak governance and inconsistent downstream policies risk Indonesia becoming a raw material supplier rather than a value-added manufacturing hub.

Tourism recovery with demand mix risks

Tourism is near recovery: Phuket passengers rebounded to 96.4% of 2019 and arrivals Jan 1–25 reached 2.63m (≈THB129.9bn). However, China remains volatile and room-rate power is limited, affecting retail, hospitality capex, labor demand, and services supply chains.

Expanding sanctions and enforcement

EU’s proposed 20th package broadens restrictions on energy, banks, goods and services, adds 43 shadow-fleet vessels (≈640 total), and targets third‑country facilitators. Heightened secondary‑sanctions exposure raises compliance costs and transaction refusal risk for global firms.

Resilient Foreign Investment Attractiveness

France recorded an 11% rise in foreign investment decisions in 2025, supporting 48,000 jobs, with the EU and US as key sources. Despite high public debt and political tensions, France’s diversified sectors—especially AI, automotive, and renewables—remain attractive for international investors.

Critical minerals and battery supply chains

Canada is positioning itself as a “trusted supplier” of critical minerals, supporting mining, processing and battery ecosystems. This creates opportunities in offtakes and JV processing, but permitting timelines, Indigenous consultation, and infrastructure constraints can delay projects and cashflows.

Labor Market and Demographic Dynamics

Vietnam’s young, growing workforce underpins its manufacturing competitiveness. However, wage pressures, skills shortages, and the need for digital upskilling are emerging challenges. Labor market reforms and social stability are essential for maintaining cost advantages and attracting long-term investment.

Impact on Real Estate Investment Strategies

The Shelter Act changes the risk-reward calculus for real estate investors, with higher costs and longer project cycles. Institutional investors are expected to focus on finished or near-finished assets, while speculative and early-stage investments become less attractive due to regulatory uncertainty.

Foreign Investment Hits Six-Year High

Foreign ownership of Korean stocks reached 37.18%, the highest since 2020, with strong inflows into semiconductors, shipbuilding, defense, and nuclear power. This trend reflects global investor confidence but also exposes Korea to external shocks and geopolitical tensions.

Digital-government buildout and procurement

Government is accelerating cloud/AI adoption and “digital cleanup,” with digital-government development budget cited near 10bn baht for FY2027 and agencies targeting much higher IT spend. Opportunities rise for cloud, cybersecurity, and integration vendors, alongside procurement and interoperability risks.

Procurement reforms open to nonresidents

From 1 July 2026, procurement bid evaluation will be VAT-neutral in Prozorro, displaying expected values and comparing offers without VAT for residents and nonresidents. This improves bid comparability and could increase foreign participation in state tenders and reconstruction supply.

Fiscal outlook and debt path

Brazil’s primary deficit was R$61.7bn in 2025 (0.48% of GDP), while gross debt ended near 79.3% of GDP and is projected higher. Fiscal rules rely on exclusions, raising risk premiums, FX volatility and financing costs for investors and importers.

Fiscal activism and policy uncertainty

Snap election dynamics and proposed tax/spending shifts are raising fiscal-risk scrutiny for Japan’s high-debt sovereign, influencing rates, infrastructure budgets and public procurement. For investors, this can move funding costs, affect stimulus-linked sectors, and increase scenario-planning needs around policy reversals.

Gas and LNG project constraints

New EU measures include bans on maintenance and services for LNG tankers and icebreakers, tightening pressure on Russian LNG export projects and Arctic logistics. This increases delivery uncertainty, reduces long‑term offtake reliability, and complicates energy‑intensive investments.

Supply chain resilience and port logistics risk

Australia’s trade-dependent sectors remain sensitive to shipping availability, port capacity and industrial relations disruptions. Any bottlenecks can raise landed costs and inventory buffers, particularly for LNG, minerals and agribusiness. Firms are prioritising diversification, nearshoring and stronger contingency planning.