Energy security under blockade scenarios

Taiwan’s import dependence, especially for LNG, creates acute vulnerability to maritime interference. Policy efforts to prioritize energy security underline risks of power shortages and industrial curtailment, affecting fabs, chemicals, and data centers with high uptime requirements.

Tax reform rollout and veto risk

Implementation of the new dual VAT regime (CBS/IBS plus Selective Tax) is advancing, but Congress is still voting on key presidential vetoes and governance rules. Transition complexity will hit pricing, invoicing, credits, cross-border services and supply-chain tax efficiency.

Crypto-based payments and enforcement

Sanctions and FX scarcity are accelerating use of crypto and stablecoins for trade settlement and wealth preservation, drawing increased OFAC attention and first-time sanctions on exchanges tied to Iran. This raises AML/KYC burdens and counterparty screening complexity for fintech and traders.

Energía doméstica: déficit y cortes

Déficits de gas/electricidad y restricciones estacionales afectan producción industrial, minería y petroquímica. Para inversores y operadores, implica menor fiabilidad operativa, mayores costos de respaldo (diesel/UPS) y riesgo de incumplimiento de contratos de suministro, además de presión social.

Kızıldeniz/Süveyş lojistik şoku

Kızıldeniz güvenlik krizi nedeniyle navlun, sigorta ve teslim süreleri dalgalanıyor; bazı hatlar Afrika çevresine yöneliyor. Türkiye’nin Avrupa-Ortadoğu bağlantılı ihracatında transit süreleri uzayabilir. Envanter, alternatif rota ve çoklu taşıyıcı stratejileri önem kazanıyor.

Reciprocal tariff regime expansion

Executive-order “reciprocal” tariffs are being used as a standing leverage tool, illustrated by the U.S.–India framework moving to an 18% reciprocal rate and conditional removals. Firms face volatile landed costs, origin rules scrutiny, and partner-specific dealmaking risk.

Energy grid attacks, rationing risk

Sustained missile and drone strikes are damaging transmission lines, substations and thermal plants, triggering nationwide outages and forcing nuclear units to reduce load. Expect operational downtime, higher generator/backup costs, constrained production schedules, and rising insurance/security requirements.

Logistics disruption and labor risk

Rail and potential port labor disruptions remain a recurrent risk, with spillovers into U.S.-bound flows. For exporters of bulk commodities and importers of containerized goods, stoppages elevate inventory buffers, demurrage, and rerouting costs, stressing time-sensitive supply chains.

Aranceles y reconfiguración automotriz

Aranceles de EE. UU. y peticiones de México para reducir tasas a autos no conformes con T‑MEC presionan exportaciones. Cierres/ajustes de plantas y potencial compra por BYD/Geely muestran reconfiguración; sube el escrutinio sobre “backdoor” chino y el riesgo de medidas.

AI memory-chip supercycle expansion

SK hynix’s record profits and 61% HBM share are driving aggressive capacity and U.S. expansion, including a planned $10bn AI solutions entity plus new packaging and fabs. AI-driven tight memory supply raises input costs but boosts Korea’s tech-led exports.

Escalating sanctions and secondary risk

The EU’s 20th package expands energy, banking and trade restrictions, adding 43 shadow-fleet vessels (around 640 total) plus more regional and third‑country banks. This raises secondary-sanctions exposure, contract frustration risk, and compliance costs for global firms transacting with Russia-linked counterparts.

Macroeconomic instability and FX collapse

The rial’s sharp depreciation and near-50% inflation erode purchasing power and raise operating costs. Importers face hard-currency scarcity, price controls, and ad hoc subsidies, complicating budgeting, wage management, and inventory planning for firms with local exposure or suppliers.

Privacy and AI state regulation patchwork

Rapid state-led AI and privacy enforcement—California’s surveillance-pricing sweep, expanding CCPA cybersecurity audits, and new AI transparency/bias rules—creates a fragmented compliance landscape. Multinationals must harmonize data governance, algorithmic accountability, and consumer disclosures across jurisdictions.

Gas expansion and petrochemicals feedstock

Aramco’s Jafurah unconventional gas project began selling condensate and targets large gas and liquids volumes by 2030, potentially freeing ~1 mb/d of crude for export and boosting NGL supply. This reshapes regional feedstock economics for power, chemicals, and downstream manufacturing.

Taiwan Strait escalation and blockade

China’s intensifying drills and gray‑zone “quarantine” tactics are raising shipping insurance, rerouting risks, and continuity costs. Scenario analysis puts potential first‑year global losses at US$10.6T, with Taiwan’s GDP down ~40% in worst cases—material for every supply chain.

Energy security via LNG contracting

With gas supplying about 60% of power generation and domestic output declining, PTT, Egat and Gulf are locking in long-term LNG contracts (15-year deals, 0.8–1.0 mtpa tranches). Greater price stability supports manufacturing planning but increases exposure to contract and FX risks.

Investment screening and national security

U.S. inbound (CFIUS) and outbound investment scrutiny is increasingly tied to economic security, especially for China-linked capital, data, and dual-use tech. Deal timelines, mitigation terms, and ownership structures are becoming decisive for cross-border M&A, JV approvals, and financing certainty.

E-commerce import surge and rules

Officials estimate ~90% of goods listed on major marketplaces are imports, renewing debate on origin tagging and potential local-content display requirements. Cross-border sellers and platforms face evolving compliance, while domestic manufacturers may benefit from protective measures but risk demand-side backlash.

Pemex finances and supply reliability

Pemex reported debt reduced to about $84.5bn and announced multi-year capex to lift crude and gas output, targeting 1.8 mbd oil and 4.5 bcf/d gas. Improved balance sheet helps suppliers, but operational execution and fiscal dependence still affect energy reliability and payments.

Trade-Driven Logistics and Port Demand Swings

Tariff uncertainty is already distorting shipping patterns, with importers attempting to ‘pull forward’ volumes ahead of duties and then cutting orders. The resulting volatility elevates congestion, drayage and warehousing costs, and demands more flexible routing and inventory buffers.

Inflación persistente y tasas

Banxico pausó recortes y mantuvo la tasa en 7% tras 12 bajas, elevando pronósticos de inflación y retrasando convergencia al 3% hasta 2T‑2027. Enero marcó 3,79% anual y subyacente 4,52%, afectando costos laborales, demanda y financiamiento corporativo.

إعادة تشكيل الحكومة وملفات الاستثمار

تعديل وزاري ركّز على الحقائب الاقتصادية واستحداث/فصل وزارات الاستثمار والتجارة الخارجية والتخطيط والصناعة. التغييرات قد تُسرّع تراخيص المشاريع وتحسين بيئة الأعمال، لكنها تخلق فترة انتقالية في السياسات والتنفيذ، ما يستدعي متابعة قرارات الرسوم، التراخيص، والحوافز القطاعية.

China demand concentration drives volatility

China remains Brazil’s dominant trade partner: January exports to China rose 17.4% to US$6.47bn, and China takes about 72% of Brazilian iron ore exports. Commodity price swings and Chinese demand shifts directly affect revenues, shipping flows, and investment planning.

LNG export expansion and permitting

The administration is accelerating LNG export approvals and permitting, supporting long-term contracts with Europe and Asia and stimulating upstream investment. Cheaper, abundant U.S. gas can lower energy-input costs for U.S. manufacturing while tightening global gas markets and shipping capacity.

Political fragmentation drives policy volatility

Repeated no-confidence votes and reliance on Article 49.3 highlight governance fragility. Expect sudden regulatory shifts, slower permitting, and higher execution risk for infrastructure, energy, and industrial projects as parties bargain issue-by-issue and elections loom.

BEG subsidies and budget risk

Federal BEG/BAFA support is critical to Wärmewende economics, but annual budget ceilings and frequent program adjustments create stop‑start ordering behavior. International suppliers face higher payment-cycle uncertainty, while investors must model demand cliffs, compliance documentation, and administrative throughput constraints.

Sanctions, compliance, crypto enforcement

Ukraine is expanding sanctions against entities and individuals supporting Russia’s defence and financial networks, including crypto payment and mining channels linked to component procurement. This raises counterparty, KYC/AML and re-export control burdens for regional traders and service providers, especially across hubs like UAE and Hong Kong.

Tech controls and AI supply chains

Evolving U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips and tools create uncertainty for Thailand’s electronics exports, data-center investment and re-export trade through regional hubs. Multinationals should review end-use/end-user controls, supplier traceability, and technology localization plans.

PIF strategy reset and PPPs

The Public Investment Fund is revising its 2026–2030 strategy and Saudi launched a privatization push targeting 220+ PPP contracts by 2030 and ~$64bn capex. Creates bankable infrastructure deals, but raises tender competitiveness, localization requirements, and governance diligence needs.

Sanctions escalation, maritime compliance

UK and partners continue expanding Russia-related sanctions and are considering tougher maritime actions against “shadow fleet” tankers. UK measures target LNG shipping services and designated energy firms, raising due-diligence burdens for traders, insurers, shipping, and commodity supply chains.

Durcissement sanctions UE Russie

L’UE prépare un 20e paquet de sanctions: interdiction de services maritimes pour pétrole russe, ajout de navires “shadow fleet”, restrictions bancaires et crypto, nouvelles interdictions d’import/export. Impacts: due diligence, shipping/assurance, énergie, chaînes matières.

Logistics hub buildout and PPPs

Saudi is accelerating a logistics-hub agenda: new zones, port and rail capacity, and 45 transport/logistics PPP opportunities (airports, truck stops, feeder vessels, MRO). This improves supply-chain resilience but raises compliance needs around concessions, localization, and customs-operating models.

Monetary policy amid trade uncertainty

With inflation around 2.4% and the policy rate near 2.25%, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates while tariff uncertainty clouds growth and hiring. Financing costs may stay elevated; firms should stress-test cash flows against demand shocks and FX volatility.

Domestic Demand and Housing Fragility

Authorities remain cautious about easing as housing-related financial-stability risks persist, constraining policy flexibility. Weaker domestic demand limits revenue growth for consumer-facing businesses while keeping labor and input costs sticky, and it heightens sensitivity to external shocks and currency swings.

Immigration enforcement policy volatility

Intensified immigration enforcement and politically contested oversight proposals at DHS create uncertainty for labor availability and compliance, especially in logistics, agriculture, construction, and services. Companies face higher HR/legal costs, potential workplace disruption, and relocation or automation pressures.

Export earnings and currency pressure

Port damage is delaying exports of grain and ore, with central bank warnings of lower export revenues and added import needs for fuel and energy equipment. This raises hryvnia volatility and payment risks, impacting pricing, working capital, and hedging strategies for importers/exporters.