Monetary policy amid trade uncertainty

With inflation around 2.4% and the policy rate near 2.25%, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates while tariff uncertainty clouds growth and hiring. Financing costs may stay elevated; firms should stress-test cash flows against demand shocks and FX volatility.

NATO demand for simulation

Finland’s expanding NATO role—hosting a Deployable CIS Module and accelerating defence readiness—supports sustained demand for secure training, synthetic environments and mission rehearsal. This can pull in foreign primes and SMEs, while tightening cybersecurity, export-control and procurement compliance expectations.

Risco fiscal e dívida crescente

Déficits persistentes e exceções ao arcabouço fiscal elevam o prêmio de risco. A dívida federal chegou a R$ 8,64 tri em 2025 (+18%), com projeções de até R$ 10,3 tri em 2026, pressionando câmbio, juros e custo de capital.

Высокий риск реинвестиций и выхода

Российские власти сигнализируют, что возвращение иностранцев будет избирательным: «ниши заняты», условия различат «корректный» и «некорректный» уход. Это повышает риски репатриации прибыли, правоприменения и предсказуемости правил для инвестиций и M&A.

Tariff volatility as negotiation tool

The administration is using tariff threats—up to 100% on Canadian goods and shifting rates for key partners—as leverage in broader negotiations. This raises landed-cost uncertainty, complicates pricing and contracting, and incentivizes nearshoring, dual sourcing, and inventory buffers for import-dependent firms.

Tax policy and capital gains timing

The federal government deferred implementation of higher capital gains inclusion to 2026, creating near-term planning windows for exits, restructurings, and inbound investment. Uncertainty over final rules still affects valuation, deal timing, and compensation design.

MSCI downgrade and market access

MSCI flagged Indonesia’s equity market “investability” risks, freezing index changes and threatening a downgrade. Authorities raised minimum free float to 15% and discussed disclosure reforms. Persistent volatility can raise funding costs, complicate exits, and deter portfolio and FDI inflows.

Massive Infrastructure Reconstruction Drive

Ukraine’s large-scale reconstruction, backed by EU and international finance, is creating significant business opportunities in transport, energy, and urban development. However, risks from ongoing conflict and corruption concerns complicate project execution and investment returns.

High debt and refinancing sensitivity

Despite improving macro indicators, Egypt’s large public financing needs and high real interest costs keep rollover risk elevated. Any global risk-off shift can widen spreads, pressure the currency, and delay state payments—material for contractors, suppliers, and banks.

Industrial policy reshapes investment

Federal incentives and procurement preferences for semiconductors, EVs, batteries, and critical minerals are accelerating domestic buildouts while tightening local-content expectations. Multinationals may gain subsidies but must manage higher US operating costs, labor constraints, and complex reporting requirements tied to funding.

Immigration rule overhaul and labour supply

Proposals to extend settlement timelines (typically five to ten years, longer for some visa routes) plus intensified sponsor enforcement create uncertainty for employers reliant on skilled migrants, notably health and social care. Expect higher compliance costs, churn, and wage pressure.

Port congestion and export delays

Transnet’s operational fragility—illustrated by Cape Town container backlogs leaving roughly R1bn of fruit exports delayed—raises costs, spoilage risk and schedule uncertainty. Low global port performance rankings and equipment breakdowns drive rerouting, higher inland transport spend, and volatile lead times.

E-Auto-Förderung und Autowandel

Die Regierung reaktiviert E-Auto-Subventionen (1.500–6.000 €, ca. 3 Mrd. €, bis zu 800.000 Fahrzeuge). Das stabilisiert Nachfrage, beeinflusst Flottenentscheidungen und Zulieferketten. Gleichzeitig verschärfen EU-Klimaziele und Konkurrenz aus China Preisdruck, Lokalisierung und Technologietransfer-Debatten.

Trade rerouting and buyer concentration

Russian crude increasingly flows to India and China; enforcement has widened discounts (reported ~$24/bbl in 2025) and pushed some refiners to diversify away from sanctioned suppliers. Buyer concentration heightens counterparty leverage, renegotiation pressure, and sudden demand shifts.

Trade remedies and sectoral duties

Vietnam faces rising trade-defense actions as exports expand. The US finalized AD/CVD duties on hard empty capsules with Vietnam dumping at 47.12% and subsidies at 2.45%, signaling broader enforcement risk. Companies should strengthen origin documentation, pricing files, and contingency sourcing.

Hydrogen and ammonia export corridors

Saudi firms are building future clean-fuel export pathways, including planned ammonia shipments from Yanbu to Rostock starting around 2030 and waste-to-hydrogen/SAF partnerships. These signal emerging offtake markets, new industrial clusters, and long-lead infrastructure requirements for investors.

Export target amid protectionism

Vietnam is targeting US$546–550bn exports in 2026 (+15–16% vs 2025’s record US$475bn), but faces rising protectionism, stricter standards, and dependence on foreign-invested manufacturing and imported inputs—raising compliance, sourcing, and margin risks for exporters.

Cybercrime, fraud, and compliance pressure

Rising cybercrime and cross-border scam activity is driving stricter security practices (e.g., Bitkub disabling web withdrawals after phishing losses) and diplomatic focus on cybercrime/trafficking. Businesses should expect tougher KYC/AML, incident-reporting expectations, and higher security spend.

Port and logistics labor fragility

U.S. supply chains remain exposed to labor negotiations and operational constraints at major ports and logistics nodes. Even localized disruptions can ripple into inventory shortages, demurrage costs, and missed delivery windows, pushing firms toward diversification, buffering, and nearshore warehousing.

Climate shocks and heat stress

Flood reconstruction and increasingly severe heat waves reduce labour productivity, strain power systems and threaten agriculture-linked exports. Businesses face higher continuity costs, insurance constraints and site-selection trade-offs, with growing expectations for climate adaptation planning and resilient supply chains.

Eastern Economic Corridor Infrastructure Push

Thailand is accelerating infrastructure megaprojects in the Eastern Economic Corridor, including the U-Tapao Airport City PPP and a proposed Disneyland-style complex. These initiatives are designed to attract FDI, boost tourism, and create a high-tech industrial hub, but require policy continuity and investor confidence.

US–Taiwan tariff pact reset

The newly signed US–Taiwan reciprocal trade deal lowers US tariffs on Taiwan to 15% and has Taiwan remove or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on US goods. It reshapes sourcing, pricing, compliance, and market-entry strategies across electronics, machinery, autos, and agriculture.

Giga-project recalibration and procurement risk

Vision 2030 mega-developments exceed $1 trillion planned value, but timelines and scope are being recalibrated as oil prices soften and execution scrutiny rises. About $115bn in contracts have been awarded since 2019, yet suppliers face more selective, longer procurement cycles.

Critical minerals investment opportunities, risks

Ukraine is advancing licensing and production-sharing models for strategic minerals, including lithium projects with large capex (reported up to US$700m initial; longer-term >US$1.8bn). Potential upside is high for EU battery supply chains, but war-risk insurance, permitting integrity, and infrastructure security remain decisive.

Auto sector restructuring under tariffs

U.S. auto tariffs and plant adjustments (including shift cuts and layoffs) are reshaping North American production footprints. Canada is introducing tariff-credit relief and incentives to retain assembly and parts capacity. Suppliers face demand volatility, localization pressures and renegotiated contracts.

Post-election policy continuity risks

Bhumjaithai’s strong election showing reduces near-term instability, supporting portfolio inflows, but coalition bargaining and a multi-year constitutional rewrite could still delay budgets and reforms. Foreign investors face execution risk around stimulus, infrastructure procurement, and regulatory priorities.

Tech controls and AI supply chains

Evolving U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips and tools create uncertainty for Thailand’s electronics exports, data-center investment and re-export trade through regional hubs. Multinationals should review end-use/end-user controls, supplier traceability, and technology localization plans.

Regulatory reset and supervisory tightening

US policymakers are reconsidering post-2023 oversight, including “tailored” rules for community banks and changes to examination practices. Regulatory uncertainty complicates strategic planning for foreign entrants, increases compliance variability across charters, and may accelerate risk-based repricing of credit.

Trade facilitation and digital licensing

Authorities aim to cut investment licensing from ~24 months to under 90 days via a unified digital platform, while reducing customs clearance from 16 days to five (target two) and moving ports to 7-day operations. Execution quality will determine actual savings.

Housing and construction capacity constraints

Housing commencements and completions remain below national targets, signalling ongoing constraints in labour, permitting and materials. Construction volatility can disrupt demand for building products, logistics and services, and keep pressure on wages and inflation—affecting operating costs for project-based investors.

Energy balance: gas, power reliability

Declining domestic gas output and seasonal demand spikes raise LNG import needs and elevate power-supply stress. Businesses face risks of higher tariffs, intermittent load management, and input-cost volatility for energy-intensive manufacturing. Energy contracts, backup generation, and efficiency investments are increasingly material.

War-risk insurance and finance scaling

Multilaterals are expanding risk-sharing and investment guarantees (e.g., EBRD record financing and MIGA guarantees), improving bankability for projects despite conflict. Better coverage can unlock FDI, contractor mobilization, and longer-tenor trade finance, though premiums remain high.

Large infrastructure pipeline execution

Sheinbaum’s 2026–2030 plan targets roughly MXN 5.6–5.9 trillion (about $323B) across 1,500 projects, heavily weighted to energy, rail and roads, plus ports. If delivered, it improves logistics; execution, funding structure and procurement transparency remain key risks.

Tax and cost-base reset

Budget-linked measures raise employer National Insurance to 15% (from April 2025) and change pension salary-sacrifice NI from 2029/30, expected to raise £4.8bn initially. Combined with business-rates changes, this tightens margins and alters location, hiring, and pricing strategies.

Domestic instability and regulatory unpredictability

Economic stress and political crackdowns heighten operational disruption risk, including abrupt import controls, licensing changes, and enforcement actions. Foreign firms confront higher ESG and reputational exposure, labor volatility, and difficulty securing reliable local partners, contracts, and dispute resolution.

Trade rerouting to China

Russia’s export dependence is concentrating on China as India’s intake becomes uncertain and discounts widen (ESPO ~US$9/bbl, Urals ~US$12/bbl vs Brent). This increases buyer power, pricing volatility and settlement complexity, while complicating long-term offtake and investment planning.