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Mission Grey Daily Brief - October 05, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The world is facing a potential energy crisis as the Middle East escalates into war. Israel and Iran are exchanging missile attacks, with Israel threatening to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Oil prices have climbed, but not dramatically, as investors wait for evidence of supply disruptions. However, experts warn of a real risk of a devastating surge in oil prices, which could rock the world economy and the US presidential election. Meanwhile, Sudan is suffering from civil war and famine, with more than 20,000 deaths and 10 million people displaced. Haiti is also facing an escalating humanitarian crisis, with gang violence and more than 700,000 internally displaced people. In Burkina Faso, over 600 people were gunned down in a matter of hours, according to a French government security assessment. Lastly, Taiwan is facing increasing hostility from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), with millions of hacking attacks originating in China and propaganda bots deployed to swamp the Internet.

Middle East War and Oil Prices

The Middle East is escalating into war, with Israel and Iran exchanging missile attacks. Israel is expected to retaliate against Tehran following this week's missile barrage, and three former heads of Western intelligence agencies believe this crisis may spur Iran to develop its own nuclear bomb. Oil prices have climbed, but not dramatically, as investors wait for evidence of supply disruptions. However, experts warn of a real risk of a devastating surge in oil prices, which could rock the world economy and the US presidential election. US officials will likely do everything possible to avoid an energy supply disruption.

Businesses and investors should closely monitor the situation in the Middle East, as a potential energy crisis could have significant implications for the global economy. Diversifying energy sources and supply chains may be a prudent strategy to mitigate the risks associated with a potential energy crisis.

Sudan Civil War and Famine

Sudan is suffering from civil war and famine, with more than 20,000 deaths and 10 million people displaced. The Sudan expert for the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Radhouane Nouicer, has called for immediate measures to protect civilians in greater Khartoum, amid an escalation of hostilities and reports of summary executions. The offensive has resulted in dozens of civilian casualties and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure.

Businesses and investors should be aware of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which may require international support and assistance. Engaging with local communities and humanitarian organisations may be a way to contribute to the relief efforts and build positive relationships with local stakeholders.

Haiti Humanitarian Crisis

Haiti is facing an escalating humanitarian crisis, with gang violence and more than 700,000 internally displaced people. Gang violence has forced more than 110,000 people to flee their homes over the last seven months. The International Organization for Migration has called for a sustained humanitarian response, urging the international community to step up its support for Haiti's displaced populations and host communities.

Businesses and investors should be aware of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Haiti, which may require international support and assistance. Engaging with local communities and humanitarian organisations may be a way to contribute to the relief efforts and build positive relationships with local stakeholders.

Taiwan and China

Taiwan is facing increasing hostility from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), with millions of hacking attacks originating in China and propaganda bots deployed to swamp the Internet. The CCP is working to subvert, sabotage, and destroy Taiwan from within, with temples, pro-unification political parties, gangs, and other institutions recruited to act as a fifth column. Students, businesses, and even Taiwanese indigenous groups are brought to China on paid-for trips to be inundated with propaganda.

Businesses and investors should be aware of the increasing tensions between Taiwan and China, which may have implications for the global supply chain. Diversifying supply chains and sourcing strategies may be a prudent strategy to mitigate the risks associated with potential disruptions.


Further Reading:

$100 oil could be the October surprise no one wanted - CNN

Donovan’s Deep Dives: China is already at war with Taiwan and countries across the globe - 台北時報

Morning brief: Massacre in Burkina Faso; Trump on West Asia crisis, and more - WION

Mozambique's LNG Prospects Brighten as Elections Loom - Energy Intelligence

Newspaper headlines: 'UK warns Israel' and 'staff to get more rights' - BBC.com

Sudan, Haiti and Myanmar suffering continues—but not on the front page - America: The Jesuit Review

Themes around the World:

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Geostrategic Economic Corridors

New economic corridors linking Israel with Africa, Asia, and the Middle East reshape trade and security dynamics. Integration of physical and digital infrastructure under the Abraham Accords enhances regional connectivity, reduces supply chain risks, and promotes energy and climate security, positioning Israel as a key regional hub.

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Financial System Resilience

Despite external shocks and market volatility, Irish households, businesses, and banks maintain relatively healthy balance sheets and low debt levels. The domestic banking system has demonstrated capacity to absorb severe shocks, supporting economic stability. However, risks remain from non-bank lending practices and potential market corrections.

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Thailand's Balancing Act Between US and China

Thailand skillfully balances relations between China and the US, leveraging multiple trade frameworks with China and strategic agreements with the US. This pragmatic approach mitigates geopolitical risks, preserves trade benefits, and maintains regional stability, critical for sustaining foreign investment and supply chain integration in a complex global environment.

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Rising Public Debt and Fiscal Challenges

France's public debt exceeds €3.3 trillion, about 115% of GDP, with debt servicing costs projected to triple by decade's end. Persistent budget deficits and high borrowing costs strain government finances, diverting resources from key priorities. This fiscal pressure risks economic 'suffocation,' affecting sovereign credit ratings and increasing risk premiums on French bonds, influencing investment and financing conditions.

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AI-Driven Semiconductor Market Surge

South Korea's semiconductor sector, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is experiencing a boom fueled by global AI demand. Memory chip prices surged up to 60%, driving stock gains and export growth. This positions Korea as a critical supplier in AI data center infrastructure, enhancing its trade and investment appeal but increasing exposure to tech sector volatility.

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Corporate Borrowing and Global Credit Market Impact

Japanese firms have dramatically increased foreign-currency bond issuance, surpassing yen-denominated debt sales for the first time. This borrowing spree reflects confidence in global markets and supports aggressive spending and acquisitions. It reshapes global credit markets, increases cross-border capital flows, and signals Japan's emergence from deflationary stagnation.

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Real Estate Market Growth and Trends

Vietnam's real estate market reached $29.5 billion in 2024, projected to grow to $34.4 billion by 2033 at a 1.63% CAGR. Growth drivers include urban migration, residential projects, and government support. Industrial and logistics properties are expanding due to supply chain shifts. Market trends show a shift towards affordable housing, sustainability, and modernization, with infrastructure development critical to sustaining long-term demand.

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Record Surge in Thailand Investment Applications

Thailand's Board of Investment reports a 94% year-on-year increase in investment applications, reaching US$42 billion in the first nine months of 2025. Growth is driven by high-tech sectors like digital infrastructure, electronics, and automotive, with 72% of investments from foreign direct investors, signaling strong confidence in Thailand's strategic role in global supply chains.

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Inflation and Economic Recovery Outlook

The Central Bank of Egypt projects inflation to decline from 28.3% in 2024 to 10.5% in 2026, signaling improving price stability. Economic growth is expected to accelerate to 4.8% in FY 2025/26 and 5.1% in FY 2026/27, driven by manufacturing, services, and Suez Canal revenue recovery. This macroeconomic stabilization supports investor confidence and trade expansion.

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Climate Change Risks to Business and Infrastructure

Approximately 60% of Mexican publicly traded companies face moderate to high physical risks from climate change, including droughts, floods, and hurricanes. Infrastructure and key sectors like energy, mining, and airlines are vulnerable, necessitating enhanced adaptation strategies and impacting insurance and investment decisions.

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Economic Instability and Currency Surge

Iran faces severe economic instability marked by a sharp surge in the US dollar and gold prices, with the dollar surpassing 1.13 million rials. Inflation and capital flight exacerbate public distrust and economic anxiety, undermining investment confidence and complicating import-dependent supply chains amid reinstated UN sanctions.

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Economic Instability and Inflation Crisis

Iran faces severe economic instability marked by soaring inflation, currency devaluation, and rising commodity prices. The rial's depreciation against the dollar and surging gold prices exacerbate public distrust and economic anxiety. Persistent inflation, driven by structural imbalances and ineffective government policies, threatens purchasing power, deepens poverty, and complicates business operations and investment decisions.

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Geopolitical and Diplomatic Influence via FII

The FII has evolved into a geoeconomic and diplomatic platform where Saudi Arabia positions itself as a mediator in regional conflicts and a bridge between global capital and regional stability. High-level diplomatic engagements and coordination on issues like the two-state solution underscore Riyadh's growing geopolitical influence, impacting investor confidence and regional trade dynamics.

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Tariff Effects on Taiwan's Economic Growth

US tariffs on Taiwanese exports, excluding semiconductors, have slowed Taiwan's economic growth, particularly impacting traditional manufacturing sectors. While tech and AI sectors remain robust, tariff uncertainties and trade tensions create economic volatility. Taiwan's GDP growth forecasts reflect these mixed pressures, influencing monetary policy and investment decisions.

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Industrial Sector Challenges and Investment Focus

France’s industrial sector faces renewed crisis fears amid political uncertainty, despite government-backed investment pledges. Key projects include data centers, recycling facilities, and manufacturing plants, but skepticism remains about the sector’s revival. Industrial competitiveness and innovation are critical for sustaining France’s economic base and export capacity.

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US-South Korea Trade Agreement Impact

The US-Korea trade pact includes a $350 billion investment commitment, with $200 billion in cash capped at $20 billion annually. While reducing tariffs benefits exports, the agreement triggers capital outflows to the US, pressuring the Korean won and domestic liquidity. Managing these outflows is critical to maintaining currency stability and investment balance.

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Investment Risk Perceptions in Africa

Despite improvements, South Africa and other African countries face ongoing investment risks related to political uncertainty, regulatory changes, and infrastructure deficits. However, reform momentum and regional integration efforts like AfCFTA offer long-term opportunities. Investors must balance risk with potential rewards, emphasizing due diligence and strategic engagement in the continent’s evolving economic landscape.

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Currency Exchange Rate Volatility

Fluctuations in the Pakistani rupee against major currencies affect trade competitiveness, inflation, and investment decisions. Exchange rate instability increases uncertainty for importers and exporters, influencing pricing and profit margins. Effective monetary policy and forex market interventions are critical to stabilize the currency and support economic stability.

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MSCI Frontier Market Inclusion and Market Visibility

MSCI's inclusion of Pakistani banks and small-cap companies in its Frontier Markets Index enhances Pakistan's visibility to global investors. This recognition improves foreign research coverage and capital access, signaling gradual equity market diversification. However, translating this visibility into predictable policy and stable investment conditions remains essential to sustain investor confidence.

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US Strategic Balancing in Ukraine War

The US exhibits a complex approach balancing military support to Ukraine with diplomatic engagement with Russia and Europe. This selective engagement and burden-sharing strategy affects defense supply chains, international alliances, and the geopolitical landscape, influencing investor risk assessments and regional stability.

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Construction Sector Contraction and Recovery

Mexico's construction industry is contracting in 2025 due to rising input costs, tariff impacts, and reduced remittances. However, government investments in energy and transport infrastructure, including major railway and highway projects, are expected to drive a recovery with a projected 2.6% annual growth rate from 2026 to 2029. This sector's performance is pivotal for economic stimulus and supply chain logistics.

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Expansion of New Companies and Job Creation

The fiscal year 2024/25 saw a 21% increase in newly established companies, totaling 46,100 firms, generating approximately 79,000 jobs. Foreign investment rose by 10%, with significant contributions from China, Turkey, and Arab investors. This entrepreneurial surge diversifies the economy, fosters innovation, and strengthens Egypt's position as a regional investment and reconstruction hub.

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KOSPI Stock Market Surge

The KOSPI index reached an all-time high above 4,000 points, fueled by strong tech sector earnings, export recovery, and retail investor enthusiasm. This surge reflects economic optimism and increased foreign ownership, with foreign holdings topping $694 billion. However, concerns about overvaluation and inflationary pressures pose risks to sustained market momentum.

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Financial Market Resilience and Reforms

South Africa's financial markets demonstrate resilience amid global uncertainty, supported by structural reforms and diversification of financial products. The equity market is experiencing a sustained rally, driven by optimism around the domestic economy and expectations of global monetary easing, which bolsters emerging-market asset appeal and investor confidence.

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Export-Led Economic Growth

France's economic growth in 2025 is primarily driven by a surge in exports, notably in the aeronautics sector, and increased corporate investment. However, domestic consumption remains weak due to political uncertainty and cautious consumer behavior. This export-led growth model highlights France's integration into global value chains but also exposes vulnerabilities to external demand fluctuations.

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Stock Market Volatility and Leverage Risks

South Korea's stock market, led by the Kospi index, has surged over 70% in 2025, driven by AI-fueled semiconductor growth. However, rising retail investor leverage and margin loans have heightened volatility risks, with warnings of a potential policy-driven bubble. Regulatory oversight is critical to prevent destabilizing corrections that could impact investment strategies and market confidence.

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Global Financial Influence of Beijing's Financial Street

Beijing's Financial Street has expanded its global role in financial regulation, asset management, and international cooperation, highlighted by the 2025 Financial Street Forum. Initiatives include AI application guidelines in finance, green finance development, and Belt and Road investment facilitation, enhancing China's influence over global financial markets and supporting real economy financing.

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Capital Outflows and Currency Pressure

South Korea faces significant capital flight as domestic investors increase overseas asset purchases, weakening the won and domestic investment base. Net foreign assets reached $2.7 trillion, 55% of GDP, raising exposure to global risks. This trend threatens long-term growth by reducing domestic capital formation amid an aging population.

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Taiwan Semiconductor Dominance

Taiwan's economy and stock market are heavily driven by its semiconductor industry, led by TSMC, which accounts for 30-35% of the Taiwan Stock Exchange index. This dominance makes Taiwan a critical node in global technology supply chains, especially for chips used in AI, electric vehicles, and electronics, impacting international trade and investment strategies.

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Economic Contagion Risks

France's fiscal and financial difficulties pose contagion risks to interconnected economies like Portugal, which depend heavily on French trade and investment. Volatility in French debt markets could increase borrowing costs and disrupt regional economic stability. This interdependence underscores the importance of monitoring France's economic health for broader European financial and trade stability.

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Judicial and Regulatory Uncertainty Impacting Investment

Reforms tightening legal injunctions and perceived politicization of Mexico's judiciary have raised concerns among foreign investors and US business groups. This environment increases compliance risks and may deter investment, particularly in energy, telecommunications, and logistics sectors.

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Geopolitical Risks in Supply Chains

A DP World and Supply Chain Dive study reveals 82% of North American supply chain leaders see geopolitical events as moderate to significant risks, with 78% expecting intensification. Despite a median 5% revenue loss from disruptions, only 25% feel very prepared. Companies are shifting supply chains and partnerships to mitigate inflation, tariffs, and sanctions impacts.

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Political Instability Impacting Economy

France's ongoing political crisis is significantly undermining business confidence and manufacturing output. Persistent political turbulence fuels uncertainty, leading to contraction in manufacturing sectors and dampening both domestic and foreign demand. This instability risks deterring investment and complicates fiscal policy implementation, thereby affecting economic growth and international trade dynamics.

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Security Operations Impact on Business

Intensified anti-crime operations in Rio de Janeiro targeting organized crime cartels have led to significant casualties and increased security measures. Enhanced security reduces risks for businesses and expats, supporting continuity in logistics, tourism, and urban operations despite short-term disruptions.

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Security Challenges and US Cross-Border Operations

The US has signaled readiness for land-based operations against Mexican drug cartels without formal war declarations, heightening sovereignty concerns. This escalates risks of trade disruptions, increased border inspections, and insurance costs, affecting supply chain reliability and cross-border business operations critical to Mexico's trade-dependent economy.

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Volatile Indian Stock Markets Amid Global and Domestic Factors

Indian equity markets face volatility driven by global uncertainties, persistent foreign fund outflows, mixed corporate earnings, and delayed trade deal clarity. Sectoral weaknesses contrast with selective strengths in financials, while IPO activity remains robust. Market direction hinges on inflation data, foreign investment flows, and geopolitical developments influencing investor sentiment and capital allocation.