Foreign real estate ownership opening

New rules effective Jan. 22 allow non-Saudis to own property across most of the Kingdom via a digital platform, boosting foreign developer and investor interest. This supports regional HQ and talent attraction, while restrictions in Makkah/Madinah and licensing remain key constraints.

Liquidity regime and Fed balance sheet

Debate over shrinking the Fed balance sheet versus maintaining ample reserves raises the probability of periodic money-market “jumps,” especially in repo and wholesale funding. Volatility tightens bank liquidity, raises hedging costs, and can propagate to global USD funding and trade finance.

Energy security via long-term LNG

With gas about 60% of Thailand’s power mix and domestic supply shrinking, PTT, Egat and Gulf are locking in 15-year LNG contracts (e.g., 1 mtpa deals) to reduce spot-price volatility. Electricity tariff stability supports manufacturing, but contract costs and regulation remain key.

Defense localization and offset requirements

Saudi Arabia is expanding defense industrialization, targeting over 50% localization of defense spending by 2030; localization reached 24.89% by end‑2024. New SAMI subsidiaries and industrial complexes increase requirements for local content, technology transfer, and Saudi supplier development across programs.

Energy finance, Aramco expansion

Aramco’s $4bn bond issuance signals sustained global capital access to fund upstream, downstream chemicals, and new-energy investments. For traders and industrial users, this supports feedstock reliability and petrochemical capacity, while policy shifts and OPEC+ dynamics keep price volatility elevated.

Critical minerals processing incentives

India plans incentives for lithium and nickel processing, including ~15% capex subsidies from April 2026 and capped sales-linked support, initially for four projects. This reshapes EV-battery and clean-tech sourcing, reducing China dependence but requiring partners with technology, ESG compliance, and long lead times.

Labor Localization Tightens Expat Employment

Saudi Arabia has restricted key senior roles to nationals and imposed high Saudization quotas in sales, marketing, and procurement. These changes require international companies to adapt staffing strategies, prioritize local talent, and navigate evolving labor compliance risks.

Semiconductor push and critical minerals

Vietnam is scaling its role in packaging/testing while moving toward upstream capabilities, alongside efforts to develop rare earths, tungsten and gallium resources. Growing EU/US/Korea interest supports high-tech FDI, but talent, permitting, and technology-transfer constraints remain.

Expanding sanctions and enforcement

EU’s proposed 20th package broadens restrictions on energy, banks, goods and services, adds 43 shadow-fleet vessels (≈640 total), and targets third‑country facilitators. Heightened secondary‑sanctions exposure raises compliance costs and transaction refusal risk for global firms.

Escalating sanctions and enforcement

The EU’s proposed 20th package broadens energy, banking and trade controls, including ~€900m of additional bans and 20 more regional banks. Companies face heightened secondary-sanctions exposure, stricter compliance screening, and greater uncertainty around counterparties and contract enforceability.

AB FTA’larının asimetrik etkisi

AB’nin üçüncü ülkelerle yaptığı STA’lar, Türkiye’nin Gümrük Birliği nedeniyle tarifeleri uyarlamasına rağmen karşı pazara aynı ayrıcalıkla erişememesi sorununu büyütüyor. Örneğin AB‑Hindistan STA’sı Türkiye lehine işlemiyor; rekabet baskısı ve pazar payı riski yaratıyor.

Russia-linked nuclear fuel exposure

France imports all uranium for its nuclear fleet and still sources about 18% of enriched uranium from Russia (~€1bn annually). Potential EU action on Russian nuclear trade could disrupt fuel logistics, compliance risk, and costs for electricity-intensive industry.

Tightening China tech export controls

Export-control enforcement is intensifying, highlighted by a $252 million U.S. settlement over unlicensed shipments to SMIC after Entity List designation. Expect tighter licensing, more routing scrutiny via third countries, higher compliance costs, and greater China supply-chain fragmentation.

Technology dependence and shortages

Despite ‘import substitution’ rhetoric, Russia remains reliant on high-tech imports; Chinese microchips reportedly supply ~90% of needs. Gaps persist in transport and industrial capabilities, raising risks of equipment shortages, degraded maintenance cycles, and unpredictable regulatory interventions to secure inputs.

Central bank independence concerns, rupiah

Parliament confirmed President Prabowo’s nephew to Bank Indonesia’s board after rupiah hit a record low near 16,985/USD. Perceived politicization can raise risk premia, FX hedging costs, and volatility for importers, exporters, and foreign investors pricing IDR exposure and local debt.

FX volatility and yen defense

Yen weakness and intervention signalling (rate checks, possible US coordination) heighten hedging costs and pricing uncertainty for importers/exporters. Policy risk rises around election-driven fiscal expectations, complicating repatriation, procurement contracts, and Japan-based treasury management.

Tariff Volatility and Legal Risk

U.S. tariff policy is highly fluid, with threatened hikes on key partners and the Supreme Court reviewing authority for broad “reciprocal” duties. This uncertainty raises landed-cost volatility, complicates contract pricing, and increases incentive for regionalizing production and sourcing.

Transición energética con cuellos

La expansión renovable enfrenta saturación de red y reglas aún en definición sobre despacho, pagos de capacidad e interconexión, clave para baterías y nuevos proyectos. Permisos “fast‑track” avanzan (p.ej., solares de 75‑130MW), pero curtailment y retrasos pueden afectar PPAs y costos.

Central bank pivot and rate path

The Bank of Thailand is shifting from rate-only signalling toward broader measures targeting productivity and inequality, while maintaining accommodative policy. Analysts expect a possible cut toward 1.00% in early 2026. Lower rates help borrowers but may not revive investment without reforms.

Infrastructure Investment and Development Hubs

A historic infrastructure plan allocates 5.6 trillion pesos to energy, transport, health, and education projects through 2030. The strategy seeks to boost growth, regional development, and social equity, with mixed public-private models and streamlined regulatory frameworks.

Regulatory Environment Grows More Complex

The US is implementing significant regulatory changes, including expanded compliance requirements and sector-specific rules. Businesses face increased costs and operational complexity, particularly in finance, technology, and manufacturing, affecting market entry and ongoing operations.

Energy Sector Expansion and Export Infrastructure

Israel’s energy sector is expanding, with new gas contracts, export pipelines to Egypt, and increased production. Long-term contracts and infrastructure investments support revenue stability, but regional geopolitical tensions pose ongoing risks to supply and capital allocation.

Industrial zones and SCZONE expansion

The Suez Canal Economic Zone continues upgrading ports and terminals (including new container-handling capacity), positioning Egypt for nearshoring and regional distribution. Benefits include improved clearance and industrial clustering, but investors must assess land allocation terms, utility reliability, and FX-linked input costs.

IMF program drives policy shocks

Upcoming IMF reviews under the $7bn EFF are shaping budgets, tariffs and tax measures, tightening compliance pressure. Policy reversals, new levies and subsidy cuts can rapidly change input costs, cash-flow planning, and market access conditions for foreign firms.

Federal shutdown and budget volatility

Recurring U.S. funding disputes create operational uncertainty for businesses dependent on federal services. A late-January partial shutdown risk tied to DHS and immigration enforcement highlights potential disruptions to permitting, inspections, procurement, and travel, with spillovers into logistics and compliance timelines.

Automotive transition and investment flight

VDA reports 72% of 124 suppliers are delaying, cutting or relocating German investment; employment fell from 833k (2019) to 726k (2025). EV incentives may depress used values and dealer margins, while CO₂-rule uncertainty complicates capex and sourcing decisions.

Improving external buffers and ratings

Fitch revised Turkey’s outlook to positive, citing gross FX reserves near $205bn and net reserves (ex-swaps) about $78bn, reducing balance-of-payments risk. Better buffers can stabilize trade finance and counterparty risk, though inflation and politics still weigh on sentiment.

EU Trade Relations and GSP+ Extension

The EU’s extension of GSP+ status until 2027 secures duty-free access for Pakistani exports, especially textiles, contingent on continued progress in human rights and governance. This preferential access is vital for export-led growth and supply chain resilience to European markets.

Rupiah volatility and import costs

The rupiah’s depreciation episodes and tight monetary stance can raise hedging costs and complicate pricing for import-dependent sectors. Businesses should expect periodic FX-driven margin pressure, potential administrative frictions, and greater emphasis on local sourcing and USD liquidity management.

Tech Controls and China Decoupling

U.S.-China technology rivalry continues to constrain semiconductor and AI supply chains via export controls and licensing, while China accelerates substitution. Firms face dual-ecosystem risks, tighter compliance, potential reconfiguration of R&D and manufacturing footprints, and higher costs for advanced computing capacity.

Labour mobilisation, skills constraints

Ongoing mobilisation and displacement tighten labour markets and raise wage and retention costs, especially in construction, logistics and manufacturing. Firms face productivity volatility, compliance requirements for military-related absences, and higher reliance on automation or cross-border staffing.

Critical Minerals Strategy Accelerates

Canada is rapidly advancing its critical minerals sector, with new provincial and federal strategies, international partnerships (notably with India), and investment in recycling. This positions Canada as a key supplier for global EV, battery, and tech supply chains, reducing reliance on China.

Workforce nationalisation and labour reforms

Saudi authorities are tightening Saudization in selected functions (e.g., sales/marketing mandates reported up to 60% for targeted roles) alongside broader labour-law amendments. Firms must redesign HR operating models, pay structures, and compliance controls to avoid penalties and operational disruption.

Record EBRD and Foreign Investment Inflows

The EBRD invested a record €2.7 billion in Turkey in 2025, with 91% in the private sector. Major projects include infrastructure and post-earthquake reconstruction, underlining Turkey’s long-term investment appeal and resilience.

Financial Sector Resilience and Growth Outlook

Israel’s economy demonstrates resilience, with strong currency performance, low unemployment, and robust growth forecasts for 2026. Rate cuts and potential normalization agreements could further boost foreign investment and exports, enhancing the country’s attractiveness for global investors.

AI Basic Act compliance

South Korea’s AI Basic Act introduces duties for high‑impact AI, human oversight, and labeling of AI-generated content, applying to large domestic and foreign platforms. Cross-border digital services face new governance, localization, and documentation requirements affecting product roadmaps and go‑to‑market.