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Mission Grey Daily Brief - June 10, 2024

Global Briefing

The world is witnessing a complex interplay of geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics. From the ongoing war in Ukraine to the far-right gains in the EU elections, the global landscape is undergoing significant shifts. Here is today's global briefing:

Ukraine-Russia War

Russia's military offensive in Ukraine's northeast Kharkiv region has stalled, with Ukrainian forces inflicting heavy losses on Russian troops. With billions of dollars in new military aid from the US and Europe, Ukraine's hand is being strengthened. However, Russia continues to launch attacks on Ukrainian cities, targeting energy infrastructure. The war has entered a stalemate, and Ukraine and its allies face the challenge of sustaining resistance.

Far-Right Gains in EU Elections

The far-right has made significant gains in the European Union parliamentary elections, dealing defeats to French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In France, the far-right National Rally party dominated, prompting Macron to dissolve the parliament and call for snap elections. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany surged past the governing coalition. These elections will shift the EU to the right and may hinder its ability to pass legislation.

Belgium's Political Landscape

Following the Flemish nationalist parties' win in the federal election, Belgium is facing complex coalition talks. The AKP-MHP rivalry, which forms the ruling bloc, may intensify, raising questions about an early election.

China-Russia Relations

Amid tensions with the West, Russia is seeking to strengthen its ties with China. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Turkey could become a member of BRICS, an idea that China and Russia have differing views on.

Kenya's Intervention in Haiti

Kenya has deployed police officers to Haiti to assist in restoring law and order amid the country's gang crisis. This intervention, led by the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission, aims to protect critical infrastructure, manage borders, and conduct anti-gang operations. However, the mission faces challenges due to community distrust and resistance from Haitian gangs.

Armenia's Economic Challenges

Armenia's goods exports declined by 14.3% in the first quarter of 2024. Additionally, the country is facing a decrease in tourist flow. These economic setbacks come amidst efforts to restore Armenia's railway infrastructure, which was damaged by floods.

Indonesia's Mining Permits

Indonesia's President Joko Widodo has sparked controversy by granting mining permits to religious groups, including the country's largest Muslim organization, Nahdlatul Ulama. This move has been criticized as transactional politics, with some arguing that it undermines environmental sustainability.

New Caledonia's Unrest

People in New Caledonia are disappointed that the recent riots have been overshadowed by the upcoming Parliament elections and the Olympic Games. The European elections will go ahead as scheduled, with additional security deployed. However, the French media has stopped reporting on the territory, leading to feelings of abandonment among the locals.

Bulgaria's Political Turmoil

Bulgaria is facing its sixth parliamentary election in three years, with no party expected to win a majority. The country has been plagued by unstable governments and economic reforms remain stalled.

US-France Relations

US President Joe Biden concluded a state visit to France, celebrating the strong alliance between the two nations. Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed their support for Ukraine and addressed the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Biden also honored US war dead at a cemetery, marking a contrast with former President Trump, who had skipped a similar visit.


Further Reading:

A long, hot summer for Türkiye - Yetkin Report

As new arms flow to Ukraine, Putin is running out of time to achieve goals - South China Morning Post

Biden heralds close US-France ties as he’s treated to a state visit - CNN

Biden honors US war dead with a cemetery visit ending a French trip that served as a rebuke to Trump - ABC News

Bulgaria holds another snap election, more instability seen ahead - ThePrint

Canada reacts to posters glorifying Indira Gandhi's assassination: 'Promotion of violence is never acceptable' - India TV News

Complex coallition talks loom in Belgium after Flemish nationalist parties win federal election - Toronto Star

EU elections, Olympics overshadow New Caledonia crisis - Cook Islands News

Far-right gains in EU election deal stunning defeats to France’s Macron and Germany’s Scholz - The Mercury News

Far-right parties make stunning gains in EU election, prompting Macron to call snap vote in France - Fortune

Finance ministry: Armenia goods' exports recorded 14.3% decline in first 3 months of this year - NEWS.am

French far right obliterates Macron's party in EU election - POLITICO Europe

German exit polls point to far right gains in European election and a weak government showing - The Associated Press

How Kenya can succeed in troubled Haiti - Nation

Jokowi sparks controversy with mining permits for Indonesia’s religious groups - South China Morning Post

Kanaky New Caledonia unrest: ‘Nobody talks about what’s happening here anymore’ - Asia Pacific Report

Macron Dissolves Parliament, Calls Snap Elections In France On June 30 - NDTV

Themes around the World:

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China-Brazil Trade Deepening

China remains Brazil’s largest trading partner, with trade volumes rising despite global tensions. Brazil’s exports to China, notably in agriculture and minerals, are growing, but dependency on Chinese demand exposes Brazil to external shocks and policy shifts in Beijing.

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Fuel Regulation, Security, and Energy Transition

Brazil is intensifying fuel regulation, updating tariffs, and promoting biogas and sustainable aviation fuel. However, fuel theft in pipelines is rising, especially in São Paulo, posing operational and security risks. The energy transition agenda is advancing, but regulatory and enforcement challenges remain.

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Nationwide Protests and Legitimacy Crisis

Iran faces its largest protests in decades, driven by economic collapse, inflation exceeding 40%, and a generational rejection of the ruling system. The unrest, spreading to all provinces, threatens regime stability and disrupts business operations.

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Geopolitical Risk: U.S.-China Rivalry and Canadian Autonomy

Canada’s efforts to balance relations with both the U.S. and China expose businesses to geopolitical risks, including retaliatory tariffs, regulatory shifts, and political pressure. The evolving stance on ‘strategic autonomy’ will shape future trade, investment, and supply chain resilience.

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Foreign Direct Investment Trends and Incentives

Ukraine is actively seeking foreign direct investment, offering incentives and public-private partnerships, especially in reconstruction and defense industries. Investment climate remains volatile, with opportunities contingent on security guarantees and ongoing reforms.

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Energy Import Dependency and LNG Shift

Domestic gas production declines and regional supply disruptions forced Egypt to import a record 9 million metric tons of LNG in 2025. The country is transitioning from a gas exporter to a major importer, raising costs and energy security concerns.

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Legally Binding Security Guarantees

Ukraine’s allies have agreed to activate robust, legally binding security guarantees after a ceasefire, including military aid, multinational force deployment, and US-led monitoring. These measures aim to deter future Russian aggression and stabilize Ukraine’s business environment.

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Record Export Growth to United States

Mexico’s exports to the US reached historic highs in late 2025, with a 6.7% increase to $48.5 billion in October. This strengthens Mexico’s position as the US’s top trading partner, but exposes it to US protectionist policies and sudden regulatory shifts.

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Infrastructure Expansion and Investment Bottlenecks

Vietnam is launching large-scale infrastructure projects, targeting $5.5 billion in foreign loans for 2026 and up to $38 billion by 2030. However, persistent disbursement delays, land clearance, and regulatory hurdles threaten timely execution, impacting business operations and foreign investment flows.

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Trade Policy Protectionism and Import Controls

France has suspended imports of certain South American products over non-compliance with EU standards and is pushing for stricter border controls. This signals a more protectionist stance, increasing compliance costs and uncertainty for international suppliers and food sector operators.

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Low Growth Outlook Amid Fiscal Constraints

The IMF forecasts modest GDP growth of 1.4% in 2026, constrained by domestic structural issues and global risks. Fiscal vulnerabilities limit policy response capacity, making South Africa’s recovery fragile and heightening the need for increased investment and productivity improvements.

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Disrupted Grain Export Corridors

Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports have caused a 47% drop in agricultural exports year-on-year, severely impacting global supply chains. The Black Sea corridor remains vital but operates under constant threat, affecting food security and trade flows worldwide.

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Labor Reform and Wage Increases

Mexico’s 2026 labor reforms include a 13% minimum wage hike, stricter workplace inspections, and a planned reduction of the workweek to 40 hours. These changes improve worker protections but increase compliance costs and operational complexity, especially for export-oriented manufacturers.

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Green Energy Transition Accelerates

South Korea is rapidly advancing its green energy agenda, including large-scale investments in green ammonia and retrofitting coal plants for ammonia co-firing. These initiatives are reshaping the energy sector, creating new opportunities and compliance requirements for international investors.

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Japan’s Strategic Rare Earth Mining Push

Japan has launched the world’s first deep-sea rare earth mining trial near Minamitori Island, aiming to reduce dependence on China. Success could transform Japan into a key supplier, but technical, environmental, and cost hurdles remain, with full-scale operations targeted for 2027.

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Labor Market and Immigration Policy Uncertainty

US labor market tightness and evolving immigration policies continue to affect talent mobility and operational planning. Businesses face challenges in workforce recruitment, retention, and compliance, with implications for productivity and international assignments.

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Volatile Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook

Despite moderating inflation, robust employment and wage growth have increased expectations of Reserve Bank rate hikes in 2026. This environment creates uncertainty for borrowing costs, investment planning, and consumer spending, requiring businesses to closely monitor monetary policy developments.

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Geopolitical Tensions and Security Risks

China’s persistent claims over Taiwan and frequent military exercises in the Taiwan Strait heighten regional instability. Any escalation could disrupt global electronics, automotive, and defense supply chains, making Taiwan a critical flashpoint for international business risk.

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US-China Decoupling and Supply Chain Realignment

US-China trade relations have deteriorated, with tariffs and technology restrictions prompting companies to diversify supply chains. China’s exports to the US dropped 20% in 2025, but rerouting through third countries maintains indirect flows, complicating decoupling efforts and global sourcing strategies.

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AI-Driven Layoffs and Workforce Restructuring

A wave of major layoffs is sweeping the US, with Amazon alone cutting 16,000 jobs in January 2026 and UPS reducing up to 30,000 positions. These cuts are driven by rapid adoption of AI and automation, post-pandemic overhiring corrections, and cost pressures from tariffs and inflation. The trend is reshaping labor markets, increasing anxiety, and forcing companies to invest in upskilling or risk investor backlash. This structural shift impacts tech, logistics, retail, and manufacturing, with significant implications for consumer demand and supply chain resilience.

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Escalating US-South Korea Trade Tensions

The abrupt US tariff hike from 15% to 25% on South Korean autos, pharmaceuticals, and other goods marks a sharp escalation in bilateral trade tensions. This move disrupts supply chains, threatens export competitiveness, and injects volatility into investment strategies, especially in the automotive sector.

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Privatization and SOE Reform Acceleration

The government is fast-tracking privatization of loss-making state-owned enterprises, starting with a 75% stake in PIA and transferring PNSC to military-run NLC. These moves, driven by IMF requirements, aim to reduce fiscal burdens but raise questions about transparency and sectoral efficiency.

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Ambitious Double-Digit Growth Targets

Vietnam is targeting sustained GDP growth of over 10% annually through 2030. This aggressive goal is tied to deep economic reforms, industrial upgrading, and infrastructure investment, but its feasibility is challenged by global trade headwinds, tariff risks, and the need for innovation-driven growth.

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US-UK Tariff Tensions Escalate

President Trump’s imposition of 10–25% tariffs on UK exports over the Greenland dispute threatens to cost UK businesses £6–15bn and risks recession. The uncertainty disrupts trade, supply chains, and investment planning, with sectors like manufacturing and chemicals most exposed.

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State-Level Climate And Innovation Leadership

Despite federal policy reversals, US states and private sector actors continue to drive renewable energy adoption and climate innovation. This creates a patchwork regulatory landscape, with subnational initiatives sustaining investment opportunities and supply chain diversification for global firms.

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Currency Stability and Financial Mechanisms

The Turkish lira has stabilized amid tight policy and high reserves, reducing currency risk for foreign investors. The central bank’s cautious rate adjustments and selective support for key sectors aim to maintain financial stability, impacting capital flows and operational planning.

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Energy Supply and Cost Pressures

Delays in domestic gas production and reliance on expensive LNG imports have increased energy costs for industry. Pending petroleum law reforms and the need for clean energy to support new sectors, like data centers, are critical for operational planning and cost management.

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Persistent National Security and Human Rights Concerns

Despite renewed economic engagement with China, Canada faces ongoing challenges around foreign interference, technology transfer, and human rights. These issues influence investment screening, regulatory compliance, and reputational risk for international firms in sensitive sectors.

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Industrial Investment and Regional Modernization

Major investments in sectors like aerospace, steel, chemicals, and logistics—such as Airbus Helicopters’ €600 million modernization and Marcegaglia’s €750 million low-carbon steel plant—demonstrate France’s focus on industrial competitiveness, job creation, and sustainable development, shaping the long-term business environment.

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Critical Minerals and Mining Expansion

Saudi Arabia is investing $2.5 trillion in mineral reserves, including rare earths, gold, copper, and lithium, aiming to become a global mining and processing hub. Strategic partnerships with the US, Canada, Brazil, and others are reshaping global supply chains and reducing reliance on China for critical minerals.

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Energy Security and Transition Challenges

Vietnam’s drive for double-digit growth faces critical energy constraints. While LNG, offshore wind, and nuclear projects are prioritized, slow project execution, regulatory complexity, and grid integration issues risk power shortages, directly affecting industrial output and supply chain reliability.

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CUSMA Uncertainty and Trade Diversification

The upcoming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) introduces significant uncertainty for Canadian exporters and investors. With U.S. trade relations strained, Canada is accelerating efforts to diversify exports toward Europe, Asia, and the Global South, reshaping supply chains and investment strategies.

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Geopolitical Tensions and Regulatory Risks

Canada’s evolving trade strategy heightens exposure to geopolitical risks, including US-China rivalry, cybersecurity concerns, and regulatory divergence. Businesses must navigate shifting alliances, compliance challenges, and potential retaliatory measures as Canada balances economic pragmatism with security and values.

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Cybersecurity Regulation and Critical Infrastructure Protection

Israel is advancing comprehensive cyber legislation, expanding reporting and compliance requirements for critical sectors. With the country among the most targeted globally, these measures aim to enhance national resilience and safeguard business operations, particularly in tech, energy, and logistics.

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US Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty

Despite 20% US tariffs on Vietnamese exports, trade volumes to the US have reached record highs. However, ongoing tariff threats and negotiations inject volatility into Vietnam’s export-led growth model, compelling businesses to diversify markets and adapt to shifting global trade policies.

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AI and Data Center Infrastructure Expansion

Driven by global hyperscaler investment, South Korea is rapidly expanding AI and data center infrastructure. Government plans to triple AI spending and attract major tech firms are accelerating sector growth, supporting innovation but also intensifying competition for talent and resources.