Mission Grey Daily Brief - September 30, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The global situation remains complex, with rising geopolitical tensions, economic shifts, and social unrest dominating the landscape. In Europe, Austria's far-right Freedom Party secured a historic win in the national election, tapping into anxieties about immigration, inflation, and the war in Ukraine. This will likely lead to significant changes in the country's relationship with the EU. In Asia, China's support for Russia's defense industry and its role in spreading pro-Beijing propaganda ahead of the US elections have raised concerns in Washington. Meanwhile, China and Brazil are pushing for a Ukraine peace plan, which has been criticized by the US and Ukraine. Azerbaijan's economic resilience and diversification efforts continue to attract foreign investment, and Indonesia's nickel boom is facing challenges due to community protests and environmental concerns. Lastly, the upcoming US elections on November 5 will be influenced by American expats in Hong Kong, with potential impacts on the White House and Congress.

Austria's Shift to the Far-Right

Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPO) secured a narrow victory in the national election, marking a significant shift in the country's political landscape. The FPO, led by Herbert Kickl, has expressed Eurosceptic and Russia-friendly sentiments, advocating for stricter asylum policies and criticizing Islam. This win could lead to substantial changes in Austria's relationship with the European Union, particularly given Kickl's admiration for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his criticism of the EU. The FPO's victory is part of a broader trend of surging far-right support across Europe, including in the Netherlands, France, and Germany. This shift underscores the need for businesses and investors to closely monitor political developments in Austria and their potential impact on the country's standing within the EU.

China's Support for Russia and Propaganda Efforts

US-China tensions escalated as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed strong concerns about China's support for Russia's defense industry. China has provided critical machine tools and microelectronics, enabling Russia to produce weapons and continue its aggression in Ukraine. Additionally, China, along with Brazil, is leading an effort to gather support from developing countries for a Ukraine peace plan, which has been rejected by the US and Ukraine as serving Moscow's interests. China's actions have prompted the US to consider how to disrupt the flow of critical resources to Russia and prevent further escalation. Businesses and investors should be cautious about potential spillover effects and the impact on their operations, especially in the technology and defense sectors.

Azerbaijan's Economic Resilience and Diversification

Azerbaijan's economic resilience and growth amid regional instability and resource dependency challenges have been notable. The country's 4.3% economic growth, driven by effective management of resources and diversification efforts, has attracted foreign investment. Azerbaijan's success in the non-oil sector, particularly in renewable energy sources, has enhanced its reputation in green energy production. This stability and diversification signal to investors that the country is a reliable destination for investment, even amidst geopolitical tensions. Businesses and investors should consider the potential opportunities arising from Azerbaijan's economic resilience and its focus on sustainable energy initiatives.

Indonesia's Nickel Boom and Community Protests

Indonesia already accounts for 55% of the world's nickel production, and its output is expected to grow further. However, the nickel boom has faced challenges due to community protests and environmental concerns. Local communities have protested the loss of agriculture jobs and the negative impact of the rapidly expanding nickel business on the environment. Businesses and investors in the nickel industry should closely monitor these developments and consider strategies to address community concerns and minimize environmental impacts to ensure long-term sustainability and social license to operate.

Risks and Opportunities

Austria's Political Shift: The far-right shift in Austria may lead to changes in the country's relationship with the EU, impacting businesses and investors, particularly in the immigration and asylum sectors.
China-US Tensions: Rising tensions between the US and China over Russia's war in Ukraine may result in businesses and investors facing challenges related to supply chain disruptions and technological restrictions.
Azerbaijan's Economic Growth: Azerbaijan's economic resilience and diversification efforts present opportunities for investors, especially in the renewable energy sector.
Indonesia's Nickel Boom: Businesses and investors in Indonesia's nickel industry should be mindful of community protests and environmental concerns, developing sustainable practices to maintain their license to operate.

Recommendations for Businesses and Investors

Monitor political developments in Austria and assess potential impacts on EU relationships, particularly regarding immigration and asylum policies.
Stay apprised of US-China tensions and their potential effects on supply chains and technology access, especially in the defense and technology sectors.
Consider investment opportunities in Azerbaijan, particularly in the renewable energy sector, as the country demonstrates economic resilience and a commitment to sustainable practices.
Engage with local communities and address environmental concerns in Indonesia's nickel industry to ensure long-term sustainability and social license to operate.

Themes around the World:

US-South Korea Trade Tensions Escalate

The US has raised tariffs on South Korean autos, pharmaceuticals, and other goods from 15% to 25%, reversing previous concessions and straining bilateral relations. This move directly impacts South Korea’s export competitiveness, especially in autos, and adds volatility to global supply chains.

Tax enforcement, digitisation, disputes

IMF-mandated tax reforms expand enforcement, digital payments and FBR capability, while high taxes are cited in multinational exits. Contractual tax disputes (e.g., “super tax” in petroleum) add legal uncertainty, affecting project finance, arbitration risk, and long-term investment appetite.

Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Realignment

Geopolitical competition, especially with China, is prompting US firms to restructure supply chains, diversify sourcing, and invest in regional trade agreements. These shifts are reshaping global trade flows and increasing operational complexity for international businesses.

Geopolitical Fragmentation and Business Uncertainty

US interventions abroad and retreat from multilateralism have contributed to a fragmented geoeconomic landscape. National security concerns, sanctions, and unpredictable policy shifts increase operational risks for international businesses, requiring adaptive strategies and robust risk management frameworks.

Labor Market Structural Transition

Taiwan’s labor market is undergoing structural change, driven by AI adoption, precision workforce planning, and geopolitical uncertainty. Companies face talent shortages in high-tech sectors and must adapt hiring strategies to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving environment.

Monetary Policy Shifts and Inflation

Turkey’s central bank has shifted to a cautious easing cycle, lowering the policy rate to 37% as inflation fell to 30.9% in December 2025. While investor confidence is improving, inflation volatility and policy uncertainty remain significant risks for business planning and financing.

Expanded secondary sanctions via tariffs

Washington is blending sanctions and trade tools, including a proposed blanket 25% tariff on imports from any country trading with Iran. This “long-arm” approach raises compliance costs, forces enhanced supply-chain due diligence, and increases retaliation and WTO-dispute risk for multinationals.

Labor Market Evolution and Human Capital

Vietnam’s growth model is shifting from low-cost labor to higher productivity and innovation. Investment in education, digital skills, and workforce upskilling is central to sustaining competitiveness, with rising wages and labor quality impacting cost structures and operational strategies.

Ruble Volatility and Financial Policy

The ruble’s real effective exchange rate surged 28% in 2025 due to trade surpluses and high interest rates, reducing inflation but hurting export competitiveness and budget revenues. Currency volatility complicates financial planning, pricing, and investment for international businesses operating in Russia.

Defence exports and geopolitical positioning

Turkey’s defence industry is expanding exports and co-production, exemplified by a reported $350m arms agreement with Egypt and large-scale drone manufacturing capacity growth. This supports industrial upgrading and regional influence, but can elevate sanctions, licensing and reputational due-diligence requirements.

Labor Market and Immigration Policy Uncertainty

US labor market tightness and evolving immigration policies continue to affect talent mobility and operational planning. Businesses face challenges in workforce recruitment, retention, and compliance, with implications for productivity and international assignments.

Political Volatility Amid Snap Elections

Prime Minister Takaichi’s snap election on February 8, 2026, introduces short-term political uncertainty. The outcome will shape fiscal, trade, and security policy, with potential impacts on regulatory stability, economic stimulus, and Japan’s international posture, affecting investor confidence and business planning.

Digital Transformation and Cybersecurity Initiatives

Japan is accelerating digital transformation, highlighted by advanced AI, biometric security, and expanded cyber defense partnerships with allies. These initiatives enhance operational efficiency and security for international firms, but require adaptation to evolving regulatory and technological standards.

Real Estate Transformation and Urbanization

India’s real estate market is projected to reach $1.26 trillion by 2034, driven by urbanization, infrastructure, and PropTech. Regulatory reforms like RERA and rising NRI investments are boosting transparency and investor confidence, with commercial and residential demand expanding in Tier-II cities.

Persistent Energy and Power Constraints

South Africa continues to face chronic electricity shortages and grid instability, impacting industrial output and investor confidence. Despite some renewable energy progress, reliance on coal and delays in infrastructure upgrades create ongoing risks for manufacturing, mining, and supply chains.

China-Brazil Strategic Alignment

China is deepening its strategic partnership with Brazil, especially in agriculture and infrastructure, amid shifting global power dynamics. Increased Chinese imports of Brazilian soybeans and infrastructure investments strengthen bilateral economic ties and supply chain resilience.

Advanced Manufacturing and Automation

Japan's leadership in semiconductor equipment, packaging, and automation is reinforced by robust growth in AI-driven demand. Investments in high-end manufacturing and automation support global supply chain reliability, with Japanese firms commanding key positions in advanced technology markets.

Gaza spillovers and border operations

Rafah crossing reopening for limited passenger flows underscores persistent Gaza-related security and humanitarian pressures. While not a primary goods corridor, heightened North Sinai sensitivities can affect permitting, workforce mobility, and reputational risk. Companies should strengthen security protocols and compliance screening.

Foreign Investment Scrutiny Intensifies

Australian authorities are tightening scrutiny of foreign investment, especially in strategic sectors like rare earths. Recent government actions to force divestment of Chinese-linked stakes in Northern Minerals reflect heightened national interest concerns, affecting deal certainty for international investors.

Labor Market Weakness Amid Economic Growth

While US GDP growth remains strong, job creation has slowed, with unemployment rising to 4.4%. AI-driven productivity gains and reduced immigration contribute to a decoupling of growth from employment, raising social and political risks for businesses dependent on domestic demand.

Defense build-up reshapes industry

La hausse des crédits militaires (+6,5 à +6,7 Md€, budget armées ~57,2 Md€) accélère commandes (sous-marins, blindés, missiles) et renforce exigences de conformité, sécurité et souveraineté. Opportunités pour fournisseurs, mais arbitrages budgétaires pèsent sur autres programmes d’investissement.

China-Canada Economic Engagement Risks

Canada’s renewed engagement with China, including tariff reductions and sectoral agreements, brings opportunities for market access but exposes firms to US retaliation, regulatory scrutiny, and reputational risks amid intensifying US-China rivalry.

Major Overhaul of Investment Laws

Thailand is implementing sweeping reforms to business, visa, and property regulations, including opening select sectors to 100% foreign ownership, easing expat entry, and legalizing same-sex marriage. These measures aim to attract global talent and investment, boosting Thailand’s competitiveness as an international business hub.

Strategic Expansion of Gas Infrastructure

Brazil is investing hundreds of millions of dollars in new pipelines, LNG terminals, and storage to secure domestic gas supply, reduce reliance on imports, and support industrial growth. Projects like TAG, SEAP, and GASOG are critical for energy security, especially amid declining Bolivian imports and rising pre-salt production.

Energy transition supply-chain frictions

Rising restrictions and tariffs targeting Chinese-origin batteries and energy storage (e.g., FEOC rules, higher Section 301 tariffs) are forcing earlier compliance screening, origin tracing, and dual-sourcing—impacting project finance, delivery schedules, and total installed costs globally.

Environmental and Labor Standards Scrutiny

Foreign investment, particularly from China, faces increasing scrutiny over environmental and labor practices. Regulatory enforcement and community expectations are rising, making compliance with sustainability standards essential for maintaining social license and business continuity.

US-China Economic Competition Intensifies

US-China relations remain a dominant force in global economics, with ongoing tensions over technology, trade, and security. These dynamics influence market access, regulatory risk, and supply chain resilience for international businesses operating in or sourcing from both countries.

Tariff escalation and legal risk

U.S. tariff policy remains volatile, with high effective tariff rates and active litigation over emergency authorities. Companies face sudden duty changes, pricing pressure, and contract disputes, while investment timing hinges on court outcomes and negotiated exemptions across sectors.

$350 Billion Investment Pact Stalled

A $350 billion South Korean investment commitment in the US, central to a new trade deal, faces delays due to parliamentary gridlock and currency concerns. The uncertainty undermines investor confidence and complicates cross-border business planning in key sectors such as technology and manufacturing.

Escalating US Tariff Policy Volatility

Recent months have seen the US intensify its use of tariffs as a strategic tool, with threats of 100% tariffs on Canadian goods and new sectoral levies. This volatility increases uncertainty for global supply chains and investment planning, impacting cross-border trade flows and business costs.

Regulatory and Policy Shifts for Business

Japan is implementing regulatory reforms to attract foreign investment and enhance business resilience. Policy changes in economic security, industrial strategy, and trade are designed to support supply chain diversification, technological innovation, and long-term competitiveness for international firms.

Hamas Disarmament and Demilitarization Unresolved

Efforts to fully disarm Hamas and demilitarize Gaza remain contested, with Israel insisting on complete disarmament before reconstruction. This impasse delays aid, infrastructure rebuilding, and business re-entry, creating persistent uncertainty for supply chains and investment planning.

Regulatory Reforms and Business Transparency

Reforms led by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan have enhanced transparency, digitalized company registration, and aligned regulations with international standards. These measures have improved Pakistan’s global business rankings and investor confidence, supporting easier market entry and compliance.

Supply Chain Disruptions from Conflict

Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries and logistics hubs in 2025 led to the lowest pipeline deliveries since 2010 and a 25% drop in energy income. Such disruptions threaten supply reliability for global partners and heighten operational risks.

E-Commerce and Logistics Transformation

South Korea’s logistics and third-party logistics (3PL) markets are expanding rapidly, fueled by e-commerce growth, technology adoption, and sustainability efforts. The market is projected to reach $41.7 billion by 2033, with trends toward omnichannel logistics, customized solutions, and green practices shaping operational strategies.

Political Stability and Policy Continuity Risks

The UK’s political landscape remains volatile, with ongoing debates over trade, security, and foreign policy direction. Uncertainty around future elections and leadership could impact investment strategies and long-term business planning for international investors.