EU CEPA nearing completion

IEU‑CEPA negotiations have entered legal scrubbing, with completion targeted May 2026 and implementation aimed for January 2027. Indonesia expects up to 98% tariff-line elimination (around 90% duty‑free both ways), boosting EU-linked manufacturing, services, and investment planning.

US tariff shock and AGOA risk

US imposed 30% tariffs on South African exports in 2025, undermining AGOA preferences and creating uncertainty for autos, metals, and agriculture. Exporters face margin compression, potential job losses, and incentives to re-route supply chains or shift production footprints regionally.

Expanded secondary sanctions via tariffs

Washington is blending sanctions and trade tools, including a proposed blanket 25% tariff on imports from any country trading with Iran. This “long-arm” approach raises compliance costs, forces enhanced supply-chain due diligence, and increases retaliation and WTO-dispute risk for multinationals.

Electricity market reform uncertainty

Eskom restructuring and the Electricity Regulation Amendment rollout are pivotal for stable power and competitive pricing. Debate over a truly independent transmission entity risks delaying grid expansion; 14,000km of new lines need about R440bn, affecting project timelines and energy-intensive operations.

UK-EU supply chain re-fragmentation

EU ‘Made in Europe’ industrial rules risk excluding UK firms from subsidised value chains, potentially raising costs and disrupting integrated automotive, advanced-tech and green-energy supply chains spanning Britain and the continent, complicating investment planning and post‑Brexit trade resets.

Trade gap and dollar-driven imbalances

A widening US trade deficit—near $1 trillion annually in recent data—reflects strong import demand and softer exports. Persistent imbalances amplify political pressure for protectionism, invite sectoral tariffs, and increase FX sensitivity for exporters, reshoring economics, and pricing strategies.

AB Gümrük Birliği modernizasyonu

AB ve Türkiye, Gümrük Birliği’nin modernizasyonu için çalışmaları hızlandırma sinyali verdi; EIB’nin Türkiye’de operasyonlarına kademeli dönüşü de gündemde. Kapsamın hizmetler, tarım ve kamu alımlarına genişlemesi tedarik zinciri entegrasyonunu güçlendirebilir; takvim belirsiz.

Post-election policy continuity risks

Bhumjaithai’s strong election showing reduces near-term instability, supporting portfolio inflows, but coalition bargaining and a multi-year constitutional rewrite could still delay budgets and reforms. Foreign investors face execution risk around stimulus, infrastructure procurement, and regulatory priorities.

Economic-security industrial policy intensifies

Taiwan is deepening “economic security” cooperation with partners, prioritizing trusted supply chains in AI, chips, drones, and critical inputs. This favors vetted vendors and data-governance discipline, but increases screening, documentation, and resilience requirements for cross-border projects and M&A.

USMCA review and tariff risk

Washington and Mexico have begun talks on USMCA reforms ahead of the July 1 joint review, with stricter rules of origin, anti-dumping measures and critical-minerals cooperation. Uncertainty raises pricing, compliance and investment risk for export manufacturers, especially autos and electronics.

Escalating Cross-Strait Geopolitical Risks

China’s intensifying military drills and threats of reunification by force heighten the risk of conflict, blockades, or supply chain disruption. This persistent tension is a critical risk factor for international investors and global business operations.

Aerospace certification dispute escalation

A U.S.–Canada aircraft certification dispute triggered threats of 50% tariffs and decertification affecting Canadian-made aircraft and Bombardier. Even if moderated, this highlights vulnerability of regulated sectors to politicized decisions, raising compliance, delivery, leasing and MRO disruption risk.

Record Export Growth Driven by Chips

South Korea’s exports surged 34% year-on-year in January to $65.85 billion, led by booming semiconductor demand for AI servers and memory chips. This export momentum, especially to China and the US, underpins economic resilience but faces risks from protectionist policies and supply chain disruptions.

US–Taiwan tariff pact reset

The newly signed US–Taiwan reciprocal trade deal lowers US tariffs on Taiwan to 15% and has Taiwan remove or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on US goods. It reshapes sourcing, pricing, compliance, and market-entry strategies across electronics, machinery, autos, and agriculture.

Supply Chain Infrastructure Modernization

Major investments in logistics, freight, and facility management are underway, with the market projected to reach USD 37.8 billion by 2031. Enhanced infrastructure and integrated services improve operational efficiency and regional connectivity for global businesses.

Tighter inbound investment screening

CFIUS scrutiny is broadening beyond defense into data-rich and “infrastructure-like” assets, raising execution risk for cross-border M&A and minority stakes. Investors should expect longer timelines, mitigation demands, and valuation discounts for sensitive data, education, and tech targets.

Undersea cable and cyber resilience

Taiwan’s connectivity relies heavily on subsea cables and faces recurrent cyber pressure. New initiatives to harden cables and telecoms signal operational risk for cloud, finance, and BPO services; companies should diversify routes, enhance redundancy, and test incident response.

Afghanistan border closures disrupt trade

Prolonged closures of major crossings since Oct 2025 have stranded cargo and cut exports to Afghanistan (down 56.6% in H1 FY26). Unpredictable border policy and security spillovers increase lead times, spoilage risk, and rerouting costs for regional traders and logistics firms.

Currency Stability and Market Growth

The Brazilian real appreciated 11.19% in 2025, while the Ibovespa index rose 33.7%, marking its best performance since 2016. Stable currency and booming equities enhance Brazil’s attractiveness for portfolio investment and international business expansion.

US-China Economic Competition Intensifies

US-China relations remain a dominant force in global economics, with ongoing tensions over technology, trade, and security. These dynamics influence market access, regulatory risk, and supply chain resilience for international businesses operating in or sourcing from both countries.

Export target amid protectionism

Vietnam is targeting US$546–550bn exports in 2026 (+15–16% vs 2025’s record US$475bn), but faces rising protectionism, stricter standards, and dependence on foreign-invested manufacturing and imported inputs—raising compliance, sourcing, and margin risks for exporters.

Maritime and insurance risk premia

Geopolitical volatility continues to reshape Asia–Europe logistics. Even as Red Sea routes partially normalize, rate swings and capacity overhang drive volatile freight pricing. China exporters and importers should plan for sudden rerouting, longer lead times, and higher war-risk insurance.

US-India trade deal recalibration

A framework for a reciprocal interim US–India agreement signals selective tariff relief tied to market-access concessions and rules-of-origin tightening. Companies should expect changing duty rates across textiles, chemicals, machinery and pharma inputs, plus increased focus on standards, NTBs, and supply-chain resilience clauses.

Water treaty and climate constraints

Mexico committed to deliver at least 350,000 acre-feet annually to the U.S. under the 1944 treaty after tariff threats, highlighting climate-driven water stress. Manufacturers and agribusiness in northern basins face rising operational risk, potential rationing and stakeholder conflict over allocations.

Shifting Global Trade Alliances

US unpredictability has accelerated trade realignments, with the EU and India finalizing deals and Germany increasing investment in China. Major economies are hedging against US volatility by building alternative trade frameworks, reducing reliance on American markets and supply chains.

Geopolitical Tensions and Russia Sanctions

Finland is at the forefront of EU efforts to enforce and expand sanctions against Russia, targeting oil exports and maritime services. These measures, including actions against Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’, impact energy supply chains, raise compliance costs, and heighten regional security risks for international businesses.

Cybersecurity and hybrid interference exposure

Taiwan’s critical infrastructure faces persistent cyber and influence operations alongside military ‘grey-zone’ pressure. Multinationals should anticipate higher compliance expectations, stronger incident-reporting norms, and increased operational spending on redundancy, supplier security, and data integrity.

Санкции и вторичные риски

20-й пакет ЕС расширяет санкции: полный запрет морских услуг для российской нефти, +43 судна «теневого флота» (640), ограничения на банки и криптоплатформы, новые импорт/экспорт‑запреты. Растут риски вторичных санкций и комплаенса для глобальных цепочек поставок.

Targeted Sectoral Trade Actions

Beyond country tariffs, the U.S. is signaling sector-focused measures (autos, steel/aluminum, aerospace certification disputes) that can abruptly disrupt specific industries. Companies should expect episodic shocks to cross-border flows, inventory strategy, and after-sales service for regulated products.

Domestic Economic Policy and Inflation Management

Turkey’s central bank continues cautious monetary easing as inflation falls to 30.9% in late 2025, with targets of 16% for 2026. Policy predictability, declining inflation, and supportive infrastructure investments are expected to foster a more stable business environment, though volatility remains a concern.

Defense-driven simulation procurement

Finland’s heightened security posture is accelerating procurement of training, mission rehearsal and synthetic environments across NATO-compatible standards. This expands demand for simulators, XR devices and secure networks, creating export opportunities but raising compliance, security-clearance and supply-chain assurance requirements.

Regulatory push for digital sovereignty cloud

France continues to steer sensitive workloads toward “sovereign” cloud and security certifications (e.g., SecNumCloud), affecting public procurement and regulated sectors. Non-EU hyperscalers may need partnerships or ring-fenced operations; compliance can reshape IT sourcing.

Incertidumbre por revisión del T-MEC

La revisión obligatoria del T‑MEC hacia el 1 de julio y señales de posible salida o “modo zombi” elevan el riesgo regulatorio. Se discuten reglas de origen, antidumping y minerales críticos, afectando decisiones de inversión, pricing y contratos de largo plazo.

Industrial zones and SCZONE expansion

The Suez Canal Economic Zone continues upgrading ports and terminals (including new container-handling capacity), positioning Egypt for nearshoring and regional distribution. Benefits include improved clearance and industrial clustering, but investors must assess land allocation terms, utility reliability, and FX-linked input costs.

Trade competitiveness and tariff headwinds

Businesses warn of weak exports and tariff pressures, including potential U.S. measures affecting regional trade. Firms should expect tougher price competition versus Vietnam and Malaysia and prioritize rules-of-origin compliance, diversification of end-markets, and scenario planning for new trade barriers.

Foreign real estate ownership liberalization

New rules enabling foreign ownership of land (with limits in Makkah/Madinah) are lifting international demand for Saudi property and mixed-use developments. This improves investment entry options and collateralization, but requires careful title, zoning, and regulatory due diligence.