Balochistan security threatens projects

Militant violence in Balochistan is disrupting logistics and deterring FDI, including audits and security redesigns around the $7bn Reko Diq project. Attacks on rail and highways raise insurance, security and schedule costs for mining, energy, and corridor-linked supply chains.

FDI surge and industrial-park expansion

Vietnam attracted $38.42bn registered FDI in 2025 and $27.62bn realised (multi-year high), with early-2026 approvals exceeding $1bn in key northern provinces. Momentum supports supplier clustering, but strains land, power, logistics capacity and raises labour competition.

ACC consolidation and ramp risks

Stellantis-backed ACC is shelving planned gigafactories in Germany and Italy and refocusing on French operations, while its Nersac site faces temporary chemistry shutdown, reduced temporary staff, and reported high scrap/efficiency issues—raising execution and supply reliability risks.

USMCA review and regional risk

The coming USMCA review is a material downside risk for North American supply chains, with potential counter-tariffs and compliance changes. Canada’s central bank flags U.S.-driven policy volatility; businesses may defer capex, adjust sourcing, and build contingency inventory across the region.

Digital regulation and data enforcement

US states are escalating privacy, AI, and children’s online-safety enforcement, creating a fragmented compliance landscape alongside EU rules. Multinationals must manage divergent consent, age-assurance, and data-broker obligations, with rising litigation and enforcement risk affecting digital business models.

Reopening travel, visa facilitation

Large rises in cross-border trips and wider visa-free/extended transit policies (including UK visa-free plans) improve commercial mobility and service trade. However, implementation details and reciprocity remain variable, requiring firms to plan for compliance, documentation, and policy reversals.

Trade rerouting and logistics costs

With port disruptions, exporters increasingly divert cargo by rail and road through EU borders, raising transit time, capacity constraints and costs. Agriculture remains the largest export driver (commodities US$41.7bn in 2024), so volatility in corridors affects global buyers’ sourcing strategies and contract performance.

Energy insecurity and high costs

Gas storage fell below 30% in early February, with some Bavarian sites near-empty, boosting LNG reliance and price volatility. Elevated energy costs threaten energy‑intensive production, contract pricing, and Germany’s investment appeal versus the US and Asia.

Regional HQ and market access leverage

Riyadh continues using policy to anchor multinationals locally, linking government contracting and strategic opportunities to in‑kingdom presence. Reports indicate over 200 companies have relocated HQs to Riyadh. This affects corporate structuring, tax residency, talent deployment, and bid competitiveness.

Energy policy boosts LNG exports

A shift toward faster permitting and “regular order” approvals for LNG terminals and non-FTA exports signals higher medium-term US gas supply to Europe and Asia. This supports long-term contracting but can raise domestic price volatility and regulatory swings for energy-intensive industries.

Energy planning and power constraints

Vietnam is revising national energy planning to support 10%+ growth targets, projecting 120–130 million toe demand by 2030 and rapid renewables expansion. Businesses face execution risk in grids, LNG logistics, and permitting; power reliability remains a key site-selection factor.

Nuclear talks uncertainty and snapback

Muscat talks resumed but remain far apart on enrichment and scope, while sanctions continue alongside diplomacy. The risk of negotiation breakdown—or further UN/EU/U.S. “snapback” measures—creates unstable planning horizons for contracts, project finance, and long-cycle investments in Iran-linked trade.

Strategic manufacturing incentives scale-up

Budget 2026 expands electronics and chip incentives: ECMS outlay doubled to ₹40,000 crore and India Semiconductor Mission 2.0 launched to deepen materials, equipment and IP. This strengthens China+1 investment cases but raises localization and eligibility diligence.

Importers Registry liberalization

Amendments to the importers’ registry law aim to reduce friction by permitting capital payment in convertible currency and easing registration continuity for firms. For foreign investors, this could streamline market entry and compliance, though implementation consistency will be decisive.

Energy exports and LNG geopolitics

US LNG is central to allies’ energy security, but export policy and domestic political pressure can affect approvals, pricing, and availability. For industry, this shapes energy-intensive manufacturing siting, long-term contracts, and Europe-Asia competition for cargoes, with knock-on logistics and hedging needs.

Procurement reforms open to nonresidents

From 1 July 2026, procurement bid evaluation will be VAT-neutral in Prozorro, displaying expected values and comparing offers without VAT for residents and nonresidents. This improves bid comparability and could increase foreign participation in state tenders and reconstruction supply.

Nickel governance and reporting gaps

Regulators disclosed a major Chinese-linked nickel smelter failed to submit mandatory investment activity reports, weakening oversight of capital, production, taxes, and environmental compliance. This heightens governance and ESG due-diligence needs for counterparties in Indonesia’s nickel downstreaming ecosystem.

İşgücü gerilimleri ve operasyon sürekliliği

Büyük perakende/lojistik ağlarında ücret anlaşmazlıkları grev ve işten çıkarmalara yol açabiliyor; dağıtım merkezleri ve depolarda aksama riski yükseliyor. Çok lokasyonlu işletmeler için sendikal dinamikler, taşeron kullanımı, güvenlik müdahaleleri ve itibar yönetimi tedarik sürekliliğini etkiler.

Energy security and LNG logistics

PGN began supplying LNG cargoes from Tangguh Papua to the FSRU Jawa Barat, supporting power and industrial demand with distribution capacity up to 100 MMSCFD. Greater LNG reliance improves near-term supply resilience, but exposes users to shipping, price-indexation, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Immigration crackdown labor tightness

Intensified enforcement is reducing foreign-born employment and discouraging participation, with estimates that 200,000 to over 1 million immigrants stopped working. Key sectors (agriculture, construction, services) face labor shortages, wage pressure, and slower demand growth in affected local economies.

Selic alta e volatilidade

Com Selic em 15% e inflação de 12 meses em 4,44% (perto do teto de 4,5%), o BC sinaliza cortes graduais a partir de março, sem guidance longo. A combinação de juros e incerteza fiscal afeta crédito, câmbio, hedges e decisões de capex.

Tighter tech export controls

BIS continues tightening—and sometimes recalibrating—controls on advanced computing, AI chips, and semiconductor equipment tied to China. Firms must manage licensing, end-use checks, and diversion risk through third countries, raising costs and delaying shipments in sensitive tech ecosystems.

Multipolar payments infrastructure challenge

Growth in non-dollar payment plumbing—CBDCs, mBridge-type networks, and yuan settlement initiatives—incrementally reduces reliance on USD correspondent banking. Firms face fragmentation of rails, higher integration costs, and strategic decisions on invoicing currencies and liquidity buffers.

Critical minerals and industrial policy

Canada’s critical-minerals endowment supports batteries, defense, and clean-tech, but policy is tightening on national-security and foreign-investment scrutiny. Expect more conditions on acquisitions, offtakes, and subsidies; firms should structure deals for reviews, Indigenous engagement, and traceability.

Energy transition, nuclear restart optionality

Japan’s decarbonisation path remains hybrid: renewables growth alongside potential nuclear restarts and new flexibility markets. This uncertainty affects long-term power pricing, siting of energy-intensive assets, and PPAs; it also shapes LNG demand forecasts and contract flexibility requirements for utilities and traders.

Gwadar logistics and incentives evolve

Gwadar Airport operations, free-zone incentives (23-year tax holiday, duty-free machinery) and improved highways aim to deepen re-export and processing activity. The opportunity is new distribution hubs; the risk is execution capacity, security costs, and regulatory clarity for investors.

Cross-platform 3D software ecosystem

Finland’s software stack for embedded and real-time 3D—exemplified by Qt-based tooling—supports industrial HMI, visualization and simulation interfaces. This reduces porting friction across devices, benefiting global deployments, though talent competition and valuation cycles can affect supplier stability.

Port congestion and export delays

Transnet port underperformance—especially Cape Town—continues disrupting time-sensitive exports; fruit backlogs reportedly reached about R1bn, driven by wind stoppages, ageing cranes and staffing issues. Diversions to other ports add cost, extend lead times and raise spoilage risk.

LNG Export Expansion and Permitting Shifts

US LNG capacity is expanding rapidly; Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 4 filing would lift site capacity to ~49 mtpa, while US exports reached ~111 mtpa in 2025. Faster approvals support long‑term supply, but oversupply and policy swings create price and contract‑tenor risk.

Banking hidden risks and real-estate spillovers

Banks’ loan guarantees rose 19% to VND 52 trillion in the first nine months, outpacing equity growth and increasing off-balance-sheet exposure (e.g., SBLCs). Thin capital buffers heighten systemic risk; credit tightening could hit construction, suppliers and consumer demand.

EU customs union modernization push

Turkey and the EU agreed to keep working toward modernizing the 1995 customs union, while business groups press for progress and visa facilitation. Potential updates could broaden sector coverage and ease frictions, materially benefiting manufacturers, logistics, and EU-facing investment cases.

Trade balance strain with neighbors

Pakistan’s trade deficit with nine neighbors widened 44.4% to $7.68bn in H1 FY26, driven by import growth (notably China) and weaker exports. This pressures FX demand and can prompt import management measures affecting raw materials and intermediate goods availability.

Customs crackdown on free zones

Customs plans tighter duty-exemption rules and higher per-item fines to curb false origin, under-valuation, and minimal-processing practices in free zones. Likely impacts include stricter ROO documentation, more inspections, longer clearance times, and higher compliance costs for importers and assemblers.

Critical minerals export leverage

China’s dominance in rare earths and magnet refining (about 70% mining, ~90% processing) increases vulnerability to licensing delays or curbs. US-led “critical minerals bloc” initiatives may accelerate decoupling, raising compliance, sourcing, and price-volatility risks.

US–China trade realignment pressure

South Africa is navigating rising US trade frictions, including 30% tariffs on some exports and lingering sanctions risk, while deepening China ties via a framework/early-harvest deal promising duty-free access. Firms should plan for rules-of-origin, retaliation and market diversification.

Tariff Volatility and Legal Risk

U.S. tariff policy is highly fluid, with threatened hikes on key partners and the Supreme Court reviewing authority for broad “reciprocal” duties. This uncertainty raises landed-cost volatility, complicates contract pricing, and increases incentive for regionalizing production and sourcing.