IMF programme conditionality pressure

Late‑February IMF review will determine release of roughly $1.2bn under the $7bn EFF plus climate-linked RSF funding, tied to tax, energy and governance reforms. Slippage risks delayed disbursements, confidence shocks, and tighter import financing for businesses.

Nickel quota cuts, ore scarcity

Indonesia is slashing nickel ore RKAB quotas—targeting ~250–260m wet tons vs 379m in 2025—and ordering major mines like Weda Bay to cut output. Smelters may face feedstock deficits, driving imports (15.84m tons in 2025) and price volatility.

Third-country hubs targeted

EU proposals would sanction non-EU ports and facilitators—including Georgia’s Kulevi and Indonesia’s Karimun—and activate an anti-circumvention tool restricting exports to high-risk jurisdictions (e.g., Kyrgyzstan). Multinationals face expanded due diligence on transshipment, refining, and re-export chains.

Dual-use export controls expansion

Beijing is widening dual-use controls, including blacklisting foreign defense-linked entities (e.g., Japanese aerospace and heavy industry). International firms must map China-origin inputs and re-export exposure, as licensing delays and end-use verification can disrupt aerospace, electronics and machinery supply chains.

Energy roadmap: nuclear-led electrification

The PPE3 to 2035 prioritizes six new EPR2 reactors (first expected 2038) and aims to raise decarbonised energy to 60% of consumption by 2030 while trimming some solar/wind targets. Impacts power prices, grid investment, and energy‑intensive manufacturing location decisions.

Pemex: deuda, liquidez y socios

Pemex bajó deuda a US$84.500m (‑13,4%) pero Moody’s prevé pérdidas operativas promedio ~US$7.000m en 2026‑27 y dependencia fiscal. Emitió MXN$31.500m localmente para vencimientos 2026 y amplía contratos mixtos con privados; riesgo para proveedores y energía industrial.

Ports and rail capacity recovery

Transnet is improving but remains a major supply-chain risk. Freight volumes rose to ~160.1Mt with revenue ~R42.7bn (+9.2%); coal exports via Richards Bay hit ~57.7Mt in 2025 (+11%). Yet Cape Town port backlogs can strand ~R1bn fruit shipments.

Durcissement sanctions UE Russie

L’UE prépare un 20e paquet de sanctions: interdiction de services maritimes pour pétrole russe, ajout de navires “shadow fleet”, restrictions bancaires et crypto, nouvelles interdictions d’import/export. Impacts: due diligence, shipping/assurance, énergie, chaînes matières.

Indo-Pacific decoupling, China risk

An updated Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy prioritizes critical-mineral diversification, anti-coercion coordination, and tighter technology alignment with like-minded partners. For firms, this raises the likelihood of China-facing export controls, dual-use compliance burdens, and accelerated “China+1” supply-chain restructuring.

Reconstruction, Seismic and Compliance Risk

Post‑earthquake reconstruction continues, with large public and PPP procurement and significant regulatory scrutiny. Companies face opportunities in construction materials, engineering and logistics, but must manage seismic-building codes, local permitting, anti-corruption controls and contractor capacity constraints in affected regions.

Digital regulation and data liability

Korea is tightening rules affecting global tech firms: platform “fairness” initiatives, network-usage fee disputes, mapping-data controls, and tougher Personal Information Protection Act amendments that shift breach liability onto companies. Multinationals face higher compliance, litigation, and operational-risk exposure.

Ports, corridors, and logistics buildout

Cairo is rolling out seven multimodal trade corridors, 70 km of new deep-water berths, and a network targeting 33 dry ports. New financing such as the $200m Safaga terminal (with $115m arranged) supports capacity, inland clearance, and supply-chain resilience.

Eastern Mediterranean gas hub strategy

A planned $2bn Cyprus–Egypt subsea pipeline (170 km, ~800 mmcfd, target 2030) would feed Egypt’s grid and LNG export terminals (Idku, Damietta). This strengthens energy security and industrial inputs, while creating opportunities in EPC, services, and offtake.

FX liquidity and pound stability

Foreign reserves reached a record $52.6bn (about 6.9 months of imports) and banks forecast USD/EGP around 45–49 in 2026. Improved liquidity supports trade finance, but devaluation risk remains tied to reform execution and external shocks.

Gas price and storage stress

Low German gas storage levels and higher winter price sensitivity increase heating-cost volatility. This strengthens the business case for electrification and efficiency retrofits, but also elevates default risk for households and SMEs, affecting credit underwriting, consumer financing, and project payback calculations.

Inflación persistente y tasas

Banxico pausó recortes y mantuvo la tasa en 7% tras 12 bajas, elevando pronósticos de inflación y retrasando convergencia al 3% hasta 2T‑2027. Enero marcó 3,79% anual y subyacente 4,52%, afectando costos laborales, demanda y financiamiento corporativo.

Escalating sanctions and enforcement

The EU’s proposed 20th package broadens energy, banking and trade controls, including ~€900m of additional bans and 20 more regional banks. Companies face heightened secondary-sanctions exposure, stricter compliance screening, and greater uncertainty around counterparties and contract enforceability.

Critical minerals export leverage

Beijing’s dominance—about 70% of rare-earth mining and ~90% processing—keeps global manufacturers exposed to licensing delays or sudden controls. Western allies are organizing price floors and stockpiles to de-risk, raising sourcing costs and compliance burdens for China-linked inputs.

Fiscal consolidation and debt trajectory

The IMF urges a clearer debt rule as Treasury projects gross debt near 77.9% of GDP. Prospective tightening to reach primary surpluses may constrain infrastructure spending, affect SOE support, and influence taxes and public procurement—key inputs for investor risk pricing.

Shift toward LFP/next-gen chemistries

European producers’ reliance on NMC faces pressure as Chinese suppliers scale LFP and sodium-ion, and solid-state projects advance. French plants may need retooling, new equipment, and revised sourcing to stay cost-competitive, affecting procurement, licensing and offtake contracts.

Energy import dependence and LNG

Taiwan’s tight energy margins and heavy LNG reliance create acute vulnerability to maritime disruption. Under the U.S. deal, Taiwan plans US$44.4B LNG/crude purchases through 2029, underscoring strategic stockpiling, grid upgrades, and potential cost volatility for industry.

Steel and aluminum tariff redesign

The administration is considering redesigning Section 232 downstream metal tariffs, potentially tiering rates (e.g., ~15/25/50%) and applying them to full product value. Importers of machinery, appliances, autos, and consumer goods should model margin impacts and reprice contracts quickly.

Monetary easing amid weak growth

Bank of England is holding Bank Rate at 3.75% after a narrow 5–4 vote, but signals likely cuts from spring as inflation trends toward 2%. Shifting rate expectations affect GBP, financing costs, valuations, and hedging for UK-linked trade.

Auto sector retooling amid trade

Canada’s auto industry is heavily integrated with the U.S.; trade renegotiation and tariff exposure are delaying parts of roughly C$46B in announced investment and complicating EV transition plans. Plant idlings, retooling, and rules-of-origin shifts raise operational and sourcing risk.

GCC connectivity and rail integration

The approved fully electric Riyadh–Doha high‑speed rail (785 km, >300 km/h) signals deeper GCC transport integration and future freight corridors. Alongside expanding domestic rail (30m tons freight in 2025), it can reshape supply-chain geography, customs coordination, and distribution footprints.

Coût de l’énergie industrielle

La facture énergétique industrielle a reculé en 2024 (−24% à 17,3 Md€), mais reste ~1,5 fois 2019. L’électricité a baissé (−28% en 2024) après hausse 2023. Compétitivité, pricing et décisions de localisation restent sensibles aux marchés.

Labor shortages and immigration bureaucracy

Germany needs about 300,000 skilled workers annually to maintain capacity, but slow, fragmented visa and qualification recognition processes delay hires by months. Tight labor markets raise operating costs and constrain scaling; multinationals should expand nearshoring, automation and structured talent pipelines.

Energy transition: nuclear plus renewables

Seoul plans two new nuclear reactors by 2038 alongside renewables to cut coal/LNG reliance, responding to strong public support. This reshapes power-price trajectories and grid investment needs, influencing energy-intensive manufacturing costs and long-term decarbonization compliance.

Critical minerals bloc and rare-earth strategy

South Korea chairs the US-led FORGE initiative while also building a China hotline and joint committee to stabilize rare-earth imports. Policy includes easing public-sector overseas resource limits and funding mine access, reshaping sourcing, compliance, and procurement for EVs, chips, and defense.

Manufacturing incentives and localization

India continues industrial policy via PLI-style incentives and strategic missions spanning electronics, textiles, chemicals, and MSMEs. International manufacturers should evaluate local value-add requirements, supplier development, and potential WTO challenges, especially in autos and clean tech.

Semiconductor Mission 2.0 push

India Semiconductor Mission 2.0 prioritizes equipment, materials, indigenous IP and supply-chain depth, building on ~₹1.6 lakh crore in approved projects. Customs duty waivers on capex reduce entry costs, supporting chip packaging, OSAT and design ecosystems that affect tech supply chains.

Chabahar port and corridor uncertainty

India’s Chabahar operations face waiver expiry (April 26, 2026) and new U.S. tariff threats tied to Iran trade, prompting budget pullbacks and operational caution. Uncertainty undermines INSTC/overland connectivity plans, increasing transit risk for firms seeking Eurasia routes via Iran.

BoJ tightening, yen volatility

Japan’s exit from ultra-loose policy is accelerating: markets price further hikes from 0.75% toward ~1% by mid‑2026, with intervention risk near ¥160/$1. FX and rate volatility will affect hedging, funding costs, pricing, and inbound investment returns.

ديناميكيات غزة ومعبر رفح

إعادة فتح معبر رفح بشكل محدود وتحت ترتيبات تفتيش ومراقبة مع حصص يومية للحركة يؤثر في تدفقات المساعدات والعمالة واللوجستيات إلى شمال سيناء. أي تصعيد أو تشديد قيود يرفع مخاطر التشغيل للشركات قرب الحدود ويؤخر الإمدادات والمشاريع.

Sanctions and export-control compliance

Canada’s alignment with allied sanctions—especially on Russia-related trade and finance—raises compliance burden across shipping, commodities, and dual-use goods. Businesses need robust screening, beneficial-ownership checks, and controls on re-exports via third countries to avoid enforcement exposure.

Rising carbon price on heating

Germany’s national CO₂ price increased from €55 to up to €65 per tonne in 2026, lifting costs for gas and oil heating. The trajectory supports Wärmewende investments, while impacting fuel import flows, hedging strategies, and competitiveness of fossil-based heating equipment supply chains.