Deflation and overcapacity pressures

China’s demand remains soft: January CPI +0.2% y/y and PPI −1.4% y/y, extending multi‑year factory deflation. Firms should expect aggressive price competition, export push to clear capacity, margin compression for suppliers, and higher countervailing‑duty risk abroad.

PIF strategy reset and prioritization

The $925bn PIF is reshaping its 2026–2030 strategy toward industry, mining, AI and tourism while re-scoping select giga-projects. For investors and suppliers, this shifts deal flow, timelines, and counterparty priorities, favoring bankable industrial and infrastructure packages.

Regulatory uncertainty, policy credibility

Even with improving macro indicators (primary surplus ~1.3% of GDP; current-account surplus), business planning is constrained by frequent policy adjustments tied to IMF benchmarks and coalition politics. Expect shifting tax measures, price controls and sectoral directives; robust scenario planning and stabilization clauses are critical.

Security environment and border tensions

Militancy risks and periodic Pakistan–Afghanistan border escalations elevate duty-of-care, route security, and insurance costs, with potential for localized disruptions in transport corridors. Firms should plan for contingency logistics, staff mobility constraints, and heightened scrutiny for dual-use goods.

US Tariff Volatility, Deal Reset

US Supreme Court curtailed emergency tariffs, replaced by temporary 10–15% global surcharge under Section 122, complicating the India–US interim trade pact. Export pricing, contracts, and compliance face uncertainty; sectoral Section 232 duties still penalise metals, autos.

War-driven fiscal and labor strain

Bank of Israel estimates Gaza-war economic cost at ~352bn shekels (~$113bn), with defense outlays and reserve mobilization disrupting labor availability. Higher deficits and taxes risk tighter procurement, slower project timelines, and elevated country risk premiums for investors.

Sanctions escalation and compliance exposure

EU’s next Russia sanctions package may expand maritime service bans and shadow-fleet targeting amid internal EU resistance. Ukraine also sanctions shadow-fleet actors. Companies must enhance screening, shipping due diligence, and third‑country diversion controls to avoid violations and disruptions.

Alta dependencia de China para exportaciones

La concentración de ventas de crudo en China (más de 80% de compras seaborne; estimaciones ~1.38 mb/d) crea vulnerabilidad a cambios regulatorios, controles aduaneros y presión diplomática. Para proveedores y traders, sube el riesgo de contrapartes opacas y descuentos forzados.

Hormuz shock hits energy costs

Escalating Israel–Iran conflict and Hormuz disruption are pushing oil, LNG, freight, and war-risk insurance costs higher. Thailand has ~60–61 days of oil reserves, froze diesel below Bt30 briefly, and is sourcing US/West Africa crude—raising operating costs and inflation risk.

Export controls and origin‑laundering scrutiny

The US–Taiwan framework emphasizes tighter critical-technology export controls, enhanced investment review, and prevention of country‑of‑origin laundering. Firms routing China-linked production through Taiwan face higher compliance burdens, licensing risk, and intensified due diligence requirements across supply chains.

Tighter sanctions licensing and guidance

OFSI published 2026 guidance on how it prioritises licence applications, signalling a more structured, transparent approach but also higher compliance expectations. Businesses should anticipate longer lead times for sensitive transactions, stronger documentation requirements, and increased need for sanctions governance.

Trade policy and tariff recalibration

The government is signalling multi-year tariff reform to support export-led growth, while managing domestic protection and revenue needs. Shifts in duties, SROs, and sector incentives can quickly change landed costs and investment economics across textiles and consumer goods.

Rising labor costs and compliance

A new minimum-wage adjustment is being prepared for 2026, with regional classifications and mandatory social insurance and union-related contributions affecting total labor cost. Manufacturers should budget for wage drift, update payroll compliance, and reassess automation versus hiring plans.

Oil exports to China dependence

Iran’s oil revenue increasingly relies on China, which buys over 80% of Iran’s shipped crude, often via opaque logistics. Crackdowns or shipping disruption at Kharg Island/Hormuz can abruptly reduce supply, shift price discounts, and create volatility for Asian refiners and freight markets.

Supply-chain reorientation away China

Tariffs and security policy are accelerating sourcing shifts: China’s share of U.S. non‑oil imports has reportedly fallen below 10% in 2025 as Mexico and Vietnam gain. Companies face dual-sourcing, rules-of-origin complexity, and higher transition costs but improved geopolitical resilience.

Supply-chain rerouting via third countries

Firms are increasingly routing trade and investment through ASEAN, South Asia and Mexico to manage tariffs and market access. Data show North/East Asia-to-ASEAN/South Asia trade flows up ~44% (2019–2024), while Chinese exports to these regions rose ~57%, complicating rules-of-origin compliance and enforcement exposure.

Defence spending boom and localisation

Defence outlays are projected above €108 billion in 2026, benefiting German primes and suppliers and accelerating capacity expansion in munitions, vehicles, sensors and shipbuilding. However, EU joint-procurement rules and ‘buy-European’ politics may constrain non-EU vendors and partnerships.

Yaptırım uyumu ve ikincil riskler

ABD’nin İran ‘gölge filo’ ve tedarik ağlarına yönelik son yaptırımlarında Türkiye bağlantılı kişi/şirketler de anıldı. Bu, bankacılık, denizcilik, kimya ve makine ticaretinde KYC, ödeme kanalları ve yeniden ihracat kontrollerini sıkılaştırma ihtiyacını büyütüyor.

Fiscal consolidation and VAT politics

Treasury is stabilising debt near 79% of GDP while avoiding major tax hikes after a contentious VAT episode. Predictability supports investment, yet revenue gaps increase pressure for stronger enforcement, fuel/“sin” levies, and spending restraint that can affect consumer demand and public procurement.

EEC-led FDI and re-shoring

Foreign investment is concentrating in the Eastern Economic Corridor: January 2026 permits totaled THB33.8bn (+46% y/y), with the EEC taking 43% (THB14.6bn). Focus areas include automation, contract manufacturing, EV supply chains, and services—strengthening Thailand’s role as ASEAN production base.

Liquidity shifts as rates rise

Analysts warn a move toward a 1% policy rate could trigger large household flows into bank deposits, complicating money markets as the BoJ shrinks its balance sheet. Corporates may face changing bank funding behavior, altered commercial paper pricing, and episodic short-term rate volatility.

Energy exports under maritime crackdown

Oil revenues are pressured by lower price caps and aggressive action against the “shadow fleet,” including tanker seizures and new vessel designations. Disruptions raise freight, insurance and counterparty risk, complicate energy trading, and increase volatility for buyers relying on Russia-linked crude flows.

Tourism downturn from China tensions

Inbound arrivals fell 4.9% year-on-year in January as Chinese visitors plunged 61%, after Beijing travel warnings tied to Taiwan tensions. Retail, airports, and hospitality face revenue volatility, affecting investment cases and commercial real-estate demand in key destinations.

AI model governance and IP leakage

Accusations that Chinese AI labs mined frontier models via fake accounts highlight growing IP and cybersecurity risk in cross-border AI collaboration. Expect tighter access controls by US labs, more audits of data/model use, and heightened due diligence for partnerships and cloud usage.

Agenda ESG e risco Amazônia

Pressão regulatória e de investidores sobre desmatamento e rastreabilidade na cadeia agro-mineral continua elevando due diligence, cláusulas contratuais e risco reputacional. A proximidade de COP30 e instrumentos de carbono reforçam exigências de compliance socioambiental para acesso a mercados.

Immigration constraints and labor supply

Moves to cap temporary residents and Alberta’s proposed referendum to limit students, foreign workers and asylum seekers may tighten labor supply. This raises wage and staffing risks for logistics, construction and services, and could alter demand for housing and infrastructure.

Suez Canal rerouting shock

Red Sea insecurity and wider Middle East escalation are again diverting carriers around the Cape, slashing hard-currency inflows. Canal revenue fell from about $9.6bn (2023) to ~$3.6bn (2024), with officials citing ~$10bn cumulative losses.

Hydrogen Scale-Up and Permitting

Germany is accelerating hydrogen deployment by treating hydrogen projects as “overriding public interest,” simplifying licensing and enabling large hubs like Hamburg’s 100MW electrolyzer. Opportunities grow for equipment, offtake, and infrastructure, alongside cost, CCS, and demand risks.

Capacity constraints and inflation breadth

Broad-based price pressures and tight labor conditions suggest capacity constraints across services, construction, and logistics. For multinationals, this can mean wage escalation, contractor shortages, and longer project timelines—especially for large industrial and infrastructure builds.

Tighter residency and talent rules

Japan raised permanent residency guideline requirements to a five-year visa stay and increased scrutiny of tax and social-insurance compliance. While highly skilled professionals retain faster pathways, multinationals may see higher HR friction, retention risk, and compliance workload.

US–Japan strategic investment trade-offs

Phase-one projects in a $550bn US–Japan investment initiative include a $33bn, 9.2GW Ohio gas plant plus US export infrastructure. The package links market access and tariff mitigation to outward FDI, influencing capex planning, local-content, and political risk management.

National security investment screening

CFIUS scrutiny remains intense while outbound investment screening (focused on sensitive technologies) adds new compliance obligations. Deal timelines can lengthen, mitigation agreements may constrain operations, and joint ventures in semiconductors, AI, quantum, and defense-adjacent sectors face higher rejection risk.

Security, crime, and operational continuity

Persistent organised crime and infrastructure sabotage risks raise insurance costs, disrupt logistics and construction, and require higher security spending for sites and transport. Business continuity planning, secure transport corridors, and supplier vetting remain essential, especially for high-value exports.

Dezenflasyon ve faiz patikası

TCMB 2026 enflasyon aralığını %15–21’e yükseltti; Ocak yıllık enflasyon %30,7. Kademeli faiz indirimleri sürse de oynaklık riski ve kredi koşulları sıkı. Şirketler fiyatlama, sözleşme endeksleri ve finansman maliyetlerini yeniden kalibre etmeli.

Semiconductor build-out accelerates

Semicon Mission 2.0 prioritizes chip design, ecosystem suppliers and talent, alongside new ATMP/OSAT capacity (e.g., Micron Sanand; more plants due by end-2026). This supports electronics supply-chain localization but raises execution, yield and infrastructure risks.

Gibraltar border regime evolving

Post‑Brexit Gibraltar border arrangements are moving toward Schengen‑linked procedures, with Spain performing certain checks. Changes could reshape travel and service-delivery logistics for firms using Gibraltar structures, affecting cross‑border staffing, tourism flows, and compliance for regulated industries.