Rare earths processing and project pipeline

Government promotion of 49 mines and 29 processing projects, plus discoveries in gallium/scandium and magnet rare earths, supports Australia’s shift from raw exports to midstream processing. Opportunities are significant, but permitting, capex, and processing technology risk remain decisive.

Aggressive US Industrial and Tariff Policy

Sweeping tariffs, export controls, and industrial subsidies under the Trump administration aim to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce trade deficits. These measures raise input costs, provoke foreign retaliation, and complicate cross-border investment and supply chain management for global firms.

Balochistan security and CPEC exposure

Militant attacks in Balochistan underscore elevated security risks around CPEC assets, transport corridors, and Gwadar-linked logistics. Higher security costs, insurance premiums, and project delays weigh on FDI appetite, especially for infrastructure, mining, and energy ventures with long payback periods.

Long-term LNG contracting shift

Japan is locking in multi-decade LNG supply to secure power for data centres and industry. QatarEnergy’s 27-year deal with Jera covers ~3 Mtpa from 2028, improving resilience but adding destination-clause rigidity and exposure to gas-demand uncertainty from nuclear restarts.

Infrastructure Investment and AI Integration

Massive US infrastructure investment is underway, increasingly integrating AI for project management and sustainability. However, regulatory shifts and fragmented standards pose execution risks, while competition over infrastructure data and standards shapes global influence and market access.

State-ownership shift and privatization pipeline

Cairo is signaling greater private-sector space via the State Ownership Policy, IPO/asset-sale plans, and “Golden License” fast-tracking. Opportunities are rising in ports, logistics, manufacturing, and services, but execution risk persists around valuation, governance, and military/state-linked competition in key sectors.

USMCA, nearshoring, and critical minerals

Nearshoring to Mexico/Canada is accelerating, reinforced by U.S. critical-mineral initiatives and stricter origin enforcement. This benefits firms that regionalize supply chains, but raises audit burdens for rules-of-origin, labor content, and ESG traceability—especially in autos and batteries.

Expanded secondary sanctions, tariffs

US pressure is escalating from targeted sanctions to broader secondary measures, including proposed blanket tariffs on countries trading with Iran. This raises compliance costs, narrows counterparties, and increases sudden contract disruption risk across shipping, finance, insurance, and procurement.

Defense procurement surge and controls

Large US-approved arms packages and sustained defense demand support Israel’s defense-industrial base but heighten regulatory sensitivity. Companies in dual-use, electronics, aviation, and logistics face tighter export-control, end-use, and supply-chain traceability requirements, plus potential delays from licensing and oversight.

US-China Trade and Geopolitical Tensions

Ongoing US-China rivalry continues to drive restrictive trade measures, especially in technology and critical goods. These tensions create persistent risks of supply chain disruptions, regulatory changes, and retaliatory actions that international businesses must navigate to ensure operational continuity.

US trade access and AGOA uncertainty

AGOA has been extended only short-term amid strained US–South Africa relations and eligibility scrutiny. Exporters in autos, agriculture and apparel face tariff cliff risk, contract repricing and investment hesitation, while firms may need contingency routing, rules-of-origin checks and market diversification.

Secondary Iran trade penalties

An executive order authorizes ~25% additional tariffs on imports from countries trading with Iran, effectively extending secondary sanctions through border measures. Multinationals must intensify supply-chain and customer screening, reassess third-country exposure, and anticipate retaliation and compliance costs.

Korea semiconductor industrial policy reboot

A new Special Act creates a presidential commission, dedicated funding and cluster support to strengthen the entire chip supply chain. Regulatory streamlining and regional incentives can attract foreign suppliers, but unresolved labor flexibility debates may constrain rapid R&D and ramp-ups.

China’s Strategic Export Controls

China has expanded export controls on critical minerals and technology, targeting entire supply chains. These measures, often ambiguous and reactive, create uncertainty for global manufacturers and heighten the risk of supply disruptions in sectors such as electronics, EVs, and renewable energy.

Energy Transition and Russian Sanctions

Germany and nine North Sea states agreed to massively expand offshore wind capacity, aiming for energy independence from Russia by 2050. This strategic shift, reinforced by new EU sanctions on Russian gas, will reshape energy supply chains and create opportunities in renewable energy and related industries.

Infrastructure Investment Spurs Opportunities

Major federal investments under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act are modernizing US transportation, energy, and digital networks. These initiatives create significant opportunities for construction, technology, and green energy sectors, while also improving long-term supply chain efficiency.

Agricultural Export Resilience and Vulnerability

Despite war, Ukraine’s maritime corridor has shipped 100 million tons of grain since 2023, but attacks on ports have slashed agricultural exports by 47% year-on-year. This volatility threatens global food security and the stability of agri-business supply chains.

Privatization and Industrial Restructuring

Pakistan is accelerating privatization of state-owned enterprises and restructuring its energy and manufacturing sectors. These reforms aim to attract FDI and improve competitiveness, but create transitional risks for supply chains and legacy contracts, especially in infrastructure, energy, and logistics.

Industrial policy reshoring incentives

CHIPS/IRA-style subsidies, procurement preferences, and accelerated permitting are steering investment toward U.S. manufacturing, energy, and AI infrastructure. Multinationals must optimize site selection, local-content strategies, and subsidy compliance while anticipating partner-country countermeasures.

Political Polarization and Business Uncertainty

Deepening political divisions and unpredictable policy shifts, especially around elections, undermine regulatory stability and investor confidence. Businesses must navigate volatile labor, tax, and regulatory environments, increasing operational risk and complicating long-term planning.

Semiconductor and Technology Sector Push

Vietnam is prioritizing the development of its semiconductor and technology industries, including chip fabrication and critical minerals processing. Collaboration with the EU and other partners aims to move Vietnam up the value chain, supporting high-tech investment and innovation ecosystems.

Fiscal volatility and higher taxes

Le budget 2026 est adopté via 49.3, dans un contexte de majorité introuvable. Déficit visé à 5% du PIB, dette projetée à 118,2% et surtaxe sur grandes entreprises (7,3 Md€) augmentent le risque de changements fiscaux rapides.

Energy Transition and Power Security

Eskom’s reforms and renewable energy expansion have reduced load shedding, but high electricity costs and grid vulnerabilities persist. Recent tariff relief for energy-intensive industries aims to prevent deindustrialization, yet long-term competitiveness depends on sustainable pricing and infrastructure modernization.

Supply Chain Diversification and Resilience

US and Taiwanese efforts to co-locate semiconductor production and critical supply chains in the US and third countries aim to reduce reliance on China, enhance resilience, and manage geopolitical risk. This trend is shaping investment and operational strategies.

US-UK Tariff Tensions Escalate

President Trump’s imposition of 10–25% tariffs on UK exports over the Greenland dispute threatens to cost UK businesses £6–15bn and risks recession. The uncertainty disrupts trade, supply chains, and investment planning, with sectors like manufacturing and chemicals most exposed.

EU Customs Union modernization momentum

Turkey and the EU agreed to keep working toward modernizing the 1995 Customs Union, with business pushing to expand it to services, digital and procurement. Progress could reduce friction for integrated value chains, but talks remain conditional on rule-of-law and climate alignment.

Sanctions and secondary tariff enforcement

U.S. sanctions policy is broadening beyond entity listings toward “secondary” trade pressure, increasing exposure for banks, shippers, and manufacturers tied to Iran/Russia-linked trade flows. Businesses face higher screening costs, disrupted payment channels, and potential retaliatory measures from partners.

Labor Market Softness and Restructuring

US job growth remains sluggish, with the lowest gains outside recession years and a 4.4% unemployment rate. Tariffs and high interest rates have contributed to weak hiring, prompting the Fed to cut rates. Labor market fragility poses risks for consumer demand and business operations.

US tariff uncertainty and exports

Thailand’s 2025 exports rose 12.9% (Dec +16.8%), but 2026 momentum may slow amid US tariff uncertainty (reported 19% rate) and scrutiny of transshipment via Thailand. Firms should stress-test pricing, origin compliance, and buyer commitments.

Giga-project recalibration and procurement risk

Vision 2030 mega-developments exceed $1 trillion planned value, but timelines and scope are being recalibrated as oil prices soften and execution scrutiny rises. About $115bn in contracts have been awarded since 2019, yet suppliers face more selective, longer procurement cycles.

Tariff rationalisation amid protectionism

Recent tariff schedules cut duties on many inputs, improving manufacturing cost structures, while maintaining high protection on finished goods in select sectors. This mix changes sourcing decisions, compliance requirements, and effective protection rates, influencing export orientation versus domestic-market rent-seeking.

Semiconductor Supply Chain Realignment

The US-Taiwan trade deal mandates $250 billion in Taiwanese investment in US semiconductor manufacturing, aiming to relocate up to 40% of Taiwan’s chip supply to the US. This shift is reshaping global supply chains and risk management strategies for international businesses.

Supply Chain Disruptions from Conflict

Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries and logistics hubs in 2025 led to the lowest pipeline deliveries since 2010 and a 25% drop in energy income. Such disruptions threaten supply reliability for global partners and heighten operational risks.

Supply Chain Diversification and Resilience

Amid US tariffs and rising protectionism, China has diversified export markets and supply chains, boosting trade with ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America. However, supply chain ‘reallocation’ through third countries keeps China central to global manufacturing, complicating true decoupling efforts.

Digitalization and Regulatory Streamlining Initiatives

The launch of an electronic licensing platform offering 460 services from 41 government entities marks a major step in improving Egypt’s business environment. Faster, more transparent licensing supports ease of doing business and facilitates foreign investment and business expansion.

E-Auto-Förderung und Autowandel

Die Regierung reaktiviert E-Auto-Subventionen (1.500–6.000 €, ca. 3 Mrd. €, bis zu 800.000 Fahrzeuge). Das stabilisiert Nachfrage, beeinflusst Flottenentscheidungen und Zulieferketten. Gleichzeitig verschärfen EU-Klimaziele und Konkurrenz aus China Preisdruck, Lokalisierung und Technologietransfer-Debatten.