Critical Minerals and Resource Security

Canada’s vast reserves of critical minerals and natural resources have become a focal point in US-Canada tensions. Control over these assets is now central to national security and industrial policy, affecting global supply chains for energy, technology, and manufacturing sectors.

Energy Transition And Renewables Expansion

Khanh Hoa and other provinces are advancing large-scale renewable energy projects, including wind, solar, and nuclear. National policies support the shift to green energy, grid stability, and green hydrogen, enhancing Vietnam’s energy security and export potential in the clean tech sector.

German Investment Pivot to China

German direct investment in China surged 55% in 2025, reaching over €7 billion. Firms are localizing supply chains in China to hedge against US trade volatility, deepening economic ties with Beijing and complicating EU efforts to reduce China dependence.

Infrastructure Investment and Digitalization

Record infrastructure investment pledges—reaching 1.88 trillion baht in 2025—are catalyzing growth in transport, energy, and digital connectivity. Projects like the EEC and smart logistics hubs are enhancing Thailand’s role in regional supply chains and supporting high-tech industry expansion.

Infrastructure Concessions Drive Investment Surge

A record wave of infrastructure concessions—50 auctions in 2023-2025—has attracted over R$229 billion in private investment, especially in ports, highways, and energy. This shift to private sector-led development is improving logistics but also exposes projects to regulatory, financial, and execution risks.

Eastern Economic Corridor Bottlenecks

Land and zoning constraints in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) have delayed major industrial projects, prompting urgent regulatory reforms. The government is also considering opening new regions for investment, which could reshape the industrial landscape and supply chain dynamics.

Strategic Partnerships and Economic Security

Japan is deepening strategic partnerships with the EU, Italy, and India, focusing on critical minerals, AI, and defense cooperation. These alliances aim to de-risk supply chains, foster innovation, and reinforce Japan’s role in Indo-Pacific and global economic security frameworks, offering new opportunities for international investors.

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Legal Risks

US trade policy remains volatile, with the Supreme Court set to rule on the legality of broad tariffs. The outcome could reshape tariff regimes and inject further uncertainty into global trade, affecting investment strategies and long-term business planning.

Regulatory and Economic Reform Momentum

Recent reforms, including public-private partnerships in energy and logistics, have improved investor sentiment. South Africa’s removal from the FATF greylist and credit rating upgrades signal progress, but policy uncertainty and slow execution remain barriers to sustained investment and economic growth.

Energy Transition and LNG Import Surge

Egypt is rapidly expanding renewable energy projects, signing $1.8 billion in deals with Norway and China. However, domestic gas production decline and regional supply disruptions have turned Egypt into a major LNG importer, raising costs and supply chain complexity.

Infrastructure Investment Spurs Opportunities

Major federal investments under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act are modernizing US transportation, energy, and digital networks. These initiatives create significant opportunities for construction, technology, and green energy sectors, while also improving long-term supply chain efficiency.

Semiconductor Sector Under Geopolitical Pressure

South Korea’s semiconductor industry faces mounting pressure from US industrial policy, including demands for increased US-based production and threats of tariffs. This creates strategic dilemmas for Korean firms, affecting global supply chains and technology investment decisions.

Sluggish Growth and Structural Reform

Thailand’s GDP growth is projected at just 1.5–2.0% for 2026, the lowest in three years, driven by weak exports, currency appreciation, and political uncertainty. This stagnation is prompting urgent calls for structural reforms, impacting investment strategies and business confidence.

Escalating US-EU Trade Tensions

Recent tariff threats linked to the Greenland dispute have triggered fears of a US-EU trade war, risking up to 25% tariffs on key sectors. This volatility threatens global supply chains, investment flows, and could reshape transatlantic business strategies.

Manufacturing Push Through Deregulation

India aims to triple exports to $1.3 trillion by 2035 by prioritizing manufacturing in 15 sectors and launching the National Manufacturing Mission. The focus is on regulatory simplification, building manufacturing hubs, and reducing red tape rather than heavy subsidies, to boost competitiveness and attract investment.

Dollar, Rates, and Financing Conditions

Shifts in U.S. monetary expectations and risk-off episodes tied to trade actions can strengthen the dollar and tighten financing. This affects import costs, commodity pricing, emerging-market demand, and the viability of capex-heavy supply-chain relocations, especially for leveraged manufacturers and traders.

Privatization and PPP Expansion

Saudi Arabia’s new National Privatization Strategy targets over 220 PPP contracts and $64 billion in private investment by 2030. This broadens opportunities for foreign investors in infrastructure, transport, water, and health, while increasing private sector participation and competition.

UK-EU supply chain re-fragmentation

EU ‘Made in Europe’ industrial rules risk excluding UK firms from subsidised value chains, potentially raising costs and disrupting integrated automotive, advanced-tech and green-energy supply chains spanning Britain and the continent, complicating investment planning and post‑Brexit trade resets.

Geopolitical Uncertainty and Global Realignment

US trade unpredictability is prompting major economies like Germany, India, and Canada to diversify trade ties and reduce reliance on American markets. German investment in China surged 55% in 2025, and India finalized a landmark EU deal after US talks collapsed. This realignment is fragmenting global trade frameworks, increasing the complexity of cross-border investment and supply chain strategies.

Australia–China Trade Tensions Escalate

Rising trade friction with China, including potential tariffs on steel and ongoing disputes over agricultural exports, threatens key sectors. Policy responses risk retaliation, supply chain disruptions, and market volatility, underscoring the need for diversification and robust risk management for international businesses.

‘Made in Europe’ Strategy Debated

France champions the EU’s ‘Made in Europe’ industrial strategy to counter Chinese imports and strengthen supply chains. Internal EU divisions over protectionism versus openness create uncertainty for multinational firms, affecting procurement, investment, and market access decisions.

Macro resilience, currency strength

Israel’s shekel strength, low unemployment and expectations of further rate cuts support domestic demand and investment planning, while war risk premia remain. Foreign firms should hedge FX volatility, stress-test financing costs, and monitor credit-rating narratives and sovereign bond market access.

Supply Chain Diversification and Resilience

Vietnam remains a key beneficiary of global supply chain shifts, especially as firms diversify away from China. Its strategic location, robust manufacturing base, and integration into RCEP and CPTPP enhance resilience, but exposure to global shocks and regulatory risks persists.

Eastern Economic Corridor Infrastructure Push

Thailand is accelerating infrastructure megaprojects in the Eastern Economic Corridor, including the U-Tapao Airport City PPP and a proposed Disneyland-style complex. These initiatives are designed to attract FDI, boost tourism, and create a high-tech industrial hub, but require policy continuity and investor confidence.

Energy Sector Diversification and Export Strategy

Canada is scaling up LNG and renewable energy exports, targeting Asian markets and seeking Chinese investment in infrastructure. This diversification mitigates US market risk and positions Canada as a key player in the global energy transition, though it faces regulatory and environmental scrutiny.

Energy Sector Expansion and Transition

Recent agreements with China and Gulf states are boosting Canadian oil, LNG, and uranium exports, while also fostering collaboration in renewables and clean technology. These developments are pivotal for Canada’s energy sector, supporting both traditional exports and the transition to net-zero goals.

US fiscal dysfunction and shutdown risk

Recurring shutdown threats and funding brinkmanship can disrupt federal procurement, permitting, and regulatory processing. While some enforcement bodies continue operating, uncertainty affects travel, customs coordination, infrastructure programs, and contractor cashflow—raising operational contingencies for firms dependent on federal interfaces.

Sectoral Gains in Chemicals, Textiles, IT, and Pharma

The India-EU trade deal and other FTAs immediately benefit Indian exporters in chemicals, textiles, metals, pharmaceuticals, and IT. Tariff eliminations and improved regulatory cooperation are expected to boost exports, employment, and integration into global value chains.

Global Trade Diversification Strategies

Amid US-EU tensions, the UK and EU are accelerating trade talks with partners like China, India, and Mercosur. Diversifying trade relationships is seen as essential to mitigating risks from US protectionism and ensuring long-term resilience in UK supply chains and export markets.

Shifting Trade Partnerships and Diversification

US unpredictability has prompted partners like India, the EU, and others to seek alternative trade relationships, including new deals with China. This diversification reduces US leverage, alters global trade flows, and impacts long-term market positioning for multinationals.

Electricity market and hydro reform

Le Parlement avance une réforme des barrages: passage des concessions à un régime d’autorisation, fin de contentieux UE et relance d’investissements. Mais mise aux enchères d’au moins 40% des capacités, plafonnement EDF, créent risques de prix et de contrats long terme.

Geopolitical Realignment and Western Coordination

The Ukraine crisis is accelerating Europe’s push for strategic autonomy and closer EU-US cooperation. Ongoing trilateral talks (Ukraine, US, Russia) and evolving security architectures are influencing investment climates, regulatory frameworks, and the broader geopolitical risk environment for business.

Geopolitical Tensions and Regional Security Risks

Border disputes with India, instability in Afghanistan, and trilateral dynamics involving China heighten security risks for supply chains and cross-border trade. Persistent threats from militancy and unresolved regional conflicts add to operational uncertainties for international businesses.

Export Growth Amid Rising Competition

Despite global headwinds, Turkey achieved record exports in 2025, notably to the EU and Italy. However, rising input costs, increased Asian competition, and sector-specific declines (e.g., white goods) signal the need for policy support, innovation, and cost-effective production to sustain export momentum.

Energy Security and Infrastructure Deals

A new 15-year gas agreement with Azerbaijan and major investments in natural gas and renewables are central to Turkey’s drive for energy security and reduced import dependency. These moves enhance industrial competitiveness and supply chain resilience.

China and Russia Strategic Partnerships

Iran’s economic and security dependence on China and Russia has deepened, with China absorbing over 80% of Iran’s oil exports and providing military, technological, and diplomatic support. These partnerships offer Iran lifelines but also expose foreign investors to secondary sanctions and geopolitical entanglements.