Macro-finance uncertainty: rates and dollar

Markets remain sensitive to Fed signaling, sticky services inflation, and Treasury issuance dynamics, supporting volatile yields and a firm dollar at times. This affects cross-border financing costs, hedging, commodity pricing, and investment hurdle rates for US-facing projects.

Political and security tightening post-election

Post-election tensions around opposition figures and security deployments elevate operational risk: protest disruption, permit uncertainty, and heightened scrutiny of NGOs/media. For investors, governance risk can affect licensing timetables, security costs, and reputational exposure in sensitive sectors.

Security threats to projects and staff

Persistent militant and insurgent violence, including attacks linked to major infrastructure corridors, elevates duty-of-care and insurance costs. Heightened security can delay site work, constrain travel, and raise risk premia for logistics, mining, and energy projects.

Enerji merkezi ve arz güvenliği

Türkiye, gaz transit/dağıtım merkezi olma hedefini LNG altyapısı ve boru hatlarıyla destekliyor; Rus gazı, Azerbaycan ve LNG dengesi kritik. Bölgesel gerilimler fiyat oynaklığı yaratabilir. Sanayi için enerji maliyetleri, sözleşme yapıları ve kesinti riski yönetilmeli.

Risco logístico no Porto de Santos

Associações do agro alertam para risco de colapso no Porto de Santos e pedem leilão imediato do megaterminal Tecon Santos 10. Em 2025, café perdeu R$66,1 milhões; 55% de navios atrasaram e 1.824 contêineres/mês não embarcaram, afetando supply chains.

Carbon border and emissions compliance

EU CBAM transition is moving toward payment obligations from 2026, raising embedded-carbon reporting and cost exposure for imports of steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizers and electricity into France. Suppliers must improve emissions data, audit trails and pricing clauses to protect margins.

Energy supply, pricing, and arrears

Egypt is pressing international oil companies to double output by 2030 and revise contracts as legacy gas pricing becomes uneconomic. Reports of arrears (e.g., >$200m owed to one producer) highlight payment-risk, while new Western Desert finds support medium-term supply.

Mining push and critical minerals

Saudi is positioning mining as a third economic pillar, citing an estimated $2.5 trillion resource base and new investment-law frameworks emphasizing ESG. Partnerships include rare-earth processing interest. This creates opportunities in exploration, processing, and industrial inputs, with permitting and ESG scrutiny rising.

Monetary policy and inflation persistence

Banxico has paused or slowed rate cuts as inflation remains sticky (around 3.8% early 2026) and pushed its 3% convergence target to 2027. Elevated rates and FX sensitivity affect working capital, project finance costs, and consumer-demand outlooks.

Foreign-backed infrastructure dealmaking

Mota-Engil is in advanced talks to assume Bahia’s Fiol rail, Porto Sul port, and Caetité mine in a ~R$15bn package, reportedly financed via China-linked capital. This signals renewed concession momentum, but adds geopolitically sensitive financing, governance, and execution considerations.

Alta dependencia de China para exportaciones

La concentración de ventas de crudo en China (más de 80% de compras seaborne; estimaciones ~1.38 mb/d) crea vulnerabilidad a cambios regulatorios, controles aduaneros y presión diplomática. Para proveedores y traders, sube el riesgo de contrapartes opacas y descuentos forzados.

Power tariffs and circular debt

Energy-sector reform remains central to IMF conditionality. Tariff redesign and circular-debt containment can shift cost burdens between households and industry, affecting margins, plant uptime and pricing. Investors face policy risk around subsidies, DISCO recoveries, and contract enforcement in generation and distribution.

Aduanas, cruces y digitalización

La migración de sistemas del SAT a la Agencia Nacional de Aduanas está ralentizando importaciones y exportaciones, con filas y pérdidas por demoras. En Mexicali se reportaron acumulaciones de hasta 120 camiones y se pide extender horarios binacionales para reducir congestión y costos.

Pungutan ekspor CPO naik 12,5%

Mulai 1 Maret 2026, pungutan ekspor CPO dan beberapa turunan naik dari 10% menjadi 12,5% berdasarkan harga referensi. Industri memperkirakan tekanan harga CPO sekitar 3% dan TBS 7–8%. Kebijakan ini mengubah struktur biaya, strategi hedging, dan daya saing ekspor sawit.

Sectoral duties hit metals autos

Section 232-style tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos remain the most damaging to Canada, driving production shifts and shutdown risks. Multinationals should reassess sourcing, rules-of-origin, and capacity allocation across North America to protect margins and contract reliability.

Dados e regulação digital (LGPD)

A ANPD foi transformada em agência reguladora, com autonomia e nova carreira de fiscalização, elevando probabilidade de enforcement. Para multinacionais, isso aumenta exigências de governança de dados, contratos com terceiros, transferências internacionais e resposta a incidentes, influenciando custos de compliance e reputação.

FDI surge into high-tech

FDI remains robust, with 2025 registered inflows above USD 38.4bn and disbursed USD 27.6bn, over 80% in manufacturing. Momentum in 2026 targets electronics, semiconductors, AI and renewables, deepening supply-chain relocation opportunities and industrial real-estate demand.

Shadow fleet oil sanctions squeeze

U.S. Treasury has expanded designations against Iran’s “shadow fleet” and intermediaries moving petroleum and petrochemicals, increasing secondary-sanctions exposure for shippers, traders, banks and insurers. Compliance burdens rise while Iran likely doubles down on transshipment, spoofing, and opaque ownership.

Crypto and alternative payments expansion

Russia is scaling crypto for cross‑border settlement, with officials citing roughly 50 billion rubles ($647m) in daily transactions and possible ruble‑stablecoin studies. The EU is moving toward broader crypto transaction bans, raising compliance uncertainty for fintechs and commodity traders.

US tariff pact uncertainty

Taiwan’s signed US Agreement on Reciprocal Trade lowers tariffs to 15% and exempts 1,735 categories, but ratification and evolving US legal bases (Sections 122/232/301) create policy volatility. Firms should hedge pricing, routing and contract terms.

Export-led model and trade backlash

IMF warns China’s record goods surplus ($1.2T) and subsidies (~4% of GDP) create global spillovers and overcapacity concerns. Expect more anti-dumping probes, tariffs, and local-content rules targeting Chinese EVs, solar and industrial goods, complicating market access strategies.

Red Sea security and route risk

Houthi shipping attacks are suspended but conditional on Gaza dynamics; advisories and high-risk designations remain. Carriers cautiously test Suez while many still route via the Cape. Firms should plan for volatile transit times, higher war-risk premiums, GPS interference and contingency inventory for Red Sea lanes.

Regulatory tightening on tax compliance

Implementation of a unified tax registration number and expanded invoicing/record-keeping requirements increase compliance burdens, especially for multinationals with related-party transactions. Expect more audits, documentation demands (master/local files), and potential penalties impacting operating costs.

Regulatory uncertainty and state dominance

State and security-linked entities maintain outsized control across energy, ports, and strategic industries, while policy shifts can be abrupt under crisis conditions. Foreign investors face opaque licensing, localization demands, procurement favoritism, and elevated corruption and enforcement risk, especially in regulated sectors.

Taiwan Strait gray‑zone disruption

Recent PLA activity—100+ aircraft sorties, missile firings into Taiwan’s contiguous zone, and coast‑guard involvement—supports a ‘quarantine’ coercion risk that raises insurance costs and delays shipping without open war. Supply chains should model rerouting, lead‑time buffers, and energy/port shocks.

Nearshoring constrained by policy uncertainty

Mexico’s nearshoring upside is tempered by weaker private investment and legal uncertainty after judicial reforms. Plan México targets 5.6 trillion pesos through 2030, yet new-project FDI is limited. Investors are delaying commitments, increasing hurdle rates and due diligence demands.

Tech decoupling and chip controls

US export controls on advanced AI chips and tools—and Beijing’s countermeasures—are tightening. Recent reporting on China AI training using restricted Nvidia Blackwell and halted China-bound H200 production signals rising compliance, licensing, and supply-chain disruption risk for tech-dependent firms.

Energy grid fragility and costs

Repeated attacks on generation and transmission drive outages, forcing costly generators, fuel logistics, and production interruptions. EBRD cut 2026 growth forecast to 2.5% from 5%, warning impacts persist into 2027 as repairs take time, affecting pricing and reliability.

China tech controls tightening

US export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI systems continue to tighten, with enforcement scrutiny over alleged chip diversion to China. Multinationals must redesign product roadmaps, licensing, and data-center sourcing while managing retaliation risk and compliance exposure.

Customs system fragility and border delays

National outages of Mexico’s customs IT systems have caused kilometer-long truck queues at key crossings like Otay and Nuevo Laredo, forcing manual processing. This raises dwell times, demurrage and inventory buffers, and increases the value of redundancy in brokers, documentation and routing.

Energía y combustibles: riesgo operativo

Casos de robo/contrabando de combustibles vinculados al crimen organizado y sanciones financieras elevan riesgos de abastecimiento, compliance y reputación. La energía sigue siendo sector sensible; interrupciones o costos de combustible impactan transporte, manufactura intensiva y contratos logísticos.

Export competitiveness and market access

Exports—especially textiles—remain pivotal, yet vulnerable to energy costs, compliance, and foreign tariff changes. With the US a key market and EU access crucial, tighter standards or tariffs would hit orders, supplier stability, and long-term supply-chain commitments.

ART RI–AS ubah aturan dagang

Perjanjian resiprokal RI–AS menetapkan tarif 19% untuk banyak ekspor RI namun memberi pengecualian 0% pada komoditas tertentu. Annex mencakup komitmen non‑tarif (TKDN, perizinan impor, data, pajak digital) yang dapat membatasi ruang kebijakan dan memicu penyesuaian kepatuhan.

Expanded Russia sanctions enforcement

The UK announced its broadest Russia sanctions since 2022, targeting Transneft (moving >80% of Russia’s crude exports) plus 48 shadow-fleet tankers and 2Rivers-linked entities. Firms face heightened compliance, shipping/insurance constraints and secondary exposure risks in energy trade.

Nuclear export push and disputes

Korea is expanding nuclear-energy exports, launching a feasibility study for a Türkiye plant and pursuing broader supply-chain cooperation. However, overseas tenders can trigger legal and political disputes, as seen in European challenges around Czech projects, affecting contract certainty and timelines.

Sanctions enforcement and compliance burden

Treasury’s OFAC expanded designations targeting Iran’s shadow fleet and procurement networks, signaling aggressive secondary-risk posture for shipping, traders and banks. Multinationals face heightened screening needs, shipment delays, higher insurance costs, and greater penalties exposure for facilitation.