US tariff-linked investment package

Tokyo and Washington are accelerating a $550bn investment mechanism tied to reduced US tariffs on Japanese exports (notably autos). Projects span LNG, gas power and critical minerals, creating opportunities but adding policy-conditional timing, compliance and clawback risks.

Capital markets opening and IPO pipeline

Tadawul is opening more broadly to foreign investors, with expectations of incremental inflows alongside continued IPO activity across industrials, energy services and contractors. For multinationals, this improves local funding options and exit routes, but brings higher governance and disclosure scrutiny.

Supply chain realignment and friend-shoring

U.S. economic security doctrine is reinforcing regionalization and ‘friend-shoring,’ influencing sourcing, logistics hubs, and capital flows toward allied jurisdictions. Companies are adopting dual supply chains, higher inventory buffers, and geopolitical risk premiums, raising costs but improving resilience.

Nickel quota cuts, ore imports

Pemerintah memangkas kuota produksi nikel 2026 ke ~250–270 juta ton dari RKAB 2025 379 juta; Weda Bay dipotong ke 12 juta wmt dari 42. Smelter berpotensi defisit 90–100 juta wmt dan impor bijih (2025: 15,84 juta ton; 97% Filipina) meningkat, mengguncang rantai pasok EV/stainless.

Saudization tightening in commercial roles

From April 19, 2026, private firms with three or more staff must localize 60% of specified sales and marketing jobs, with minimum Saudi salary thresholds (SAR 5,500). Separate restrictions reserve certain senior/procurement titles for Saudis, raising HR compliance, payroll costs and operating model adjustments.

Political fragmentation, policy volatility

Hung parliament dynamics and heavy reliance on decree procedures heighten regulatory uncertainty through 2027. Businesses face higher risk of abrupt changes in taxation, labor rules, and industrial policy, complicating long-term commitments and M&A valuation assumptions.

India–US trade pact reset

A new interim India–US trade framework cuts U.S. tariffs to ~18% on many Indian exports while India reduces tariffs and non-tariff barriers for U.S. goods. Companies should reassess rules-of-origin, pricing, market access, and compliance timelines.

Tighter foreign investment screening

Approval of Mara Holdings’ acquisition of EDF’s Exaion came with sovereignty safeguards: limits on sensitive data hosting, governance controls, and ongoing ministry monitoring. This underscores heightened scrutiny of strategic tech and infrastructure deals, extending timelines and conditions for foreign acquirers.

Port, logistics and infrastructure expansion

Vietnam is accelerating seaport and hinterland upgrades to reduce logistics bottlenecks: planned seaport investment to 2030 totals 359.5 trillion VND (US$13.8bn). Rising vessel calls and container throughput support supply-chain resilience, but construction timelines and local congestion remain risks.

Policy disruption from shutdown risks

Repeated funding standoffs—recent partial shutdowns and DHS funding cliffs—delay economic data releases, create operational uncertainty for agencies affecting travel, disaster response, and cybersecurity, and inject timing risk into regulated processes and government-dependent contracts for international firms.

Tighter liquidity and rate volatility

Interbank rates spiked near 16–17% before easing after central-bank injections via OMO and USD/VND swaps. Deposit rates have risen across tenors, raising corporate funding costs and FX-hedging complexity. Companies should stress-test working capital, supplier financing, and VND liquidity access.

Asset seizure and expropriation risk

Russia’s state-driven confiscations are expanding, with reported criminal-case confiscation rulings rising from 11,000 (2023) to 31,000 (2025). Combined with forced “nationalization” precedents, this materially elevates political risk for any remaining or re-entering foreign investors and JV partners.

Ports, air cargo, multimodal logistics

Major logistics capacity is coming online: Great Nicobar transshipment port (phase 1 by 2028; 4+ million TEU), FedEx’s ₹2,500‑crore Navi Mumbai air hub, and Gati Shakti rail cargo terminals. These can lower export lead times but add project, permitting, and integration risk.

Taiwan Strait disruption risk

Rising military activity and “gray-zone” coercion around Taiwan elevate shipping, insurance and single-point-of-failure risks for global electronics. Scenario analyses estimate first-year global losses above US$10 trillion in extreme outcomes, with severe semiconductor supply disruption and cascading impacts across ICT, automotive and industrial sectors.

China export curbs on Japan

Beijing imposed dual-use export bans on 20 Japanese entities and tightened licensing for 20 more, with extraterritorial restrictions on China-origin items. This raises compliance, sourcing, and contract-friction risks across aerospace, machinery, autos, and electronics supply chains.

Cybersecurity and data regulation tightening

Rising cyber and foreign-interference concerns are driving stricter critical-infrastructure security expectations and data-governance requirements. Multinationals should anticipate higher compliance costs, vendor-risk audits, and incident-reporting duties, influencing cloud sourcing, cross-border data flows, and M&A diligence.

Auto and EV policy reset

Canada is recalibrating its automotive strategy amid US auto tariffs and Chinese EV entry, shifting from a strict sales mandate toward tougher emissions standards and renewed consumer incentives. Policy changes will move demand, reshape supplier localization, and affect battery, charging, and assembly investment decisions.

Sanctions enforcement and compliance burden

Canada continues tightening Russia-related sanctions, including measures targeting shadow-fleet shipping and lowering the Russian crude price cap. Multinationals face heightened screening of counterparties, vessels, and cargo documentation, plus higher legal and operational costs for trade finance, insurance, and logistics.

IMF programme conditionality pressure

Late‑February IMF review will determine release of roughly $1.2bn under the $7bn EFF plus climate-linked RSF funding, tied to tax, energy and governance reforms. Slippage risks delayed disbursements, confidence shocks, and tighter import financing for businesses.

Bahn-Modernisierung belastet Logistik

Sanierungen zentraler Korridore und Verzögerungen im Bauprogramm sowie Restrukturierung bei DB Cargo (geplante 6.000 Stellenabbau bis 2030) erhöhen kurzfristig Störungsrisiken für Schiene/Intermodal. Unternehmen müssen mit längeren Laufzeiten, Umroutungen und höheren Transportkosten rechnen.

EU accession-driven regulatory alignment

With accession processes advancing but timelines uncertain, Ukraine is progressively aligning with EU acquis and standards. International firms should anticipate changes in competition policy, customs, technical regulations, and state aid rules—creating compliance workload but improving long-run market access.

Pakistan–Afghanistan border trade disruptions

Prolonged closures of key commercial crossings since mid-October have stranded hundreds of trucks and halted cement, food and medicines flows. Persistent security frictions raise transit-time uncertainty for regional corridors, increase inventory buffers, and redirect trade via Iran/China routes.

Secondary sanctions via tariffs

New executive authority threatens ~25% additional tariffs on imports from countries trading with Iran, alongside expanded “shadow fleet” designations. This blurs sanctions and trade policy, raising counterparty screening demands, shipping/insurance costs, and retaliation risk for firms operating across US-linked markets.

Federal shutdown and budget disruption risk

Recurring funding lapses and DHS budget disputes can delay permits, procurement, rulemaking, and infrastructure programs. Contractors and regulated firms should plan for payment delays, staffing disruptions at agencies, and slowed approvals—particularly in security, immigration, and critical-infrastructure oversight.

US tariff pact uncertainty

Taiwan’s signed US Agreement on Reciprocal Trade lowers tariffs to 15% and exempts 1,735 categories, but ratification and evolving US legal bases (Sections 122/232/301) create policy volatility. Firms should hedge pricing, routing and contract terms.

Persistent US sector tariffs

Despite courts limiting emergency-tariff powers, US Section 232 duties on Canadian steel, aluminum, autos and lumber remain central frictions. Tariffs and quota-like effects are reshaping sourcing, forcing margin sharing, accelerating nearshoring, and increasing working-capital needs for Canada-US integrated manufacturers and exporters.

Expansão ferroviária e corredores

A agenda ferroviária prevê oito leilões até 2027, >9.000 km e ~R$140 bi, mas há entraves ambientais, fundiários e de demanda (ex.: Ferrograo no STF/TCU). Avanços podem reduzir frete e emissões; incerteza afeta decisões de localização industrial e contratos de longo prazo.

Mega-logistics projects reshape routes

Major rail and logistics projects are advancing, including the Den Chai–Chiang Rai–Chiang Khong double-track line (53% complete; opening expected 2028) and the Thai–Chinese HSR phase 1 (51.74% complete). These will alter inland freight costs and distribution strategies.

Fiscal outlook, debt-market volatility

A dívida bruta ronda 78,7–78,8% do PIB e os juros consumiram ~8,05% do PIB em 12 meses, pressionando risco-país, câmbio e curva longa. Emissões elevadas do Tesouro aumentam custos de capital e incerteza para investimento e M&A.

Foreign investment scrutiny intensifies

Heightened national-security screening of capital flows—via CFIUS and Defense “FOCI” mitigation reviews—raises execution risk for cross-border M&A and minority stakes, especially in aerospace, AI, space, and dual-use sectors, potentially altering valuation, governance terms, and closing timelines.

Shadow fleet logistics under scrutiny

Iran’s crude exports rely on AIS manipulation, reflagging, and ship‑to‑ship transfers via hubs such as Malaysia; recent India interdictions highlight rising enforcement spillover. Firms face higher freight/insurance costs, voyage delays, cargo provenance disputes, and elevated KYC/Know‑Your‑Cargo requirements.

Energy grid strikes and shortages

Repeated attacks on power and gas infrastructure drive outages, emergency repairs, and import needs. Naftogaz cites at least €3 billion in damage and over €900 million equipment needs; businesses must plan for backup power, heating disruptions, and production downtime during winters.

War-driven Black Sea shipping risk

Drone strikes, mines, and GNSS spoofing in the Black Sea are raising war-risk premiums and operational constraints, particularly near Novorossiysk and key export terminals. Shipowners may avoid calls, tighten clauses, and price in delays, affecting regional supply chains and commodity flows.

Currency resilience and cost pressures

The baht is supported by a current account surplus (~3.1% of GDP) and reserves above US$200bn, but appreciation squeezes exporter margins. Rising labor costs (higher social security contributions) and PM2.5 disruptions add operating risk; hedging and contingency HR planning matter.

Regional proxy conflict hits shipping

Iran-aligned militias and proxy dynamics around the Red Sea and Gulf raise marine risk and insurance premiums, incentivizing rerouting and longer lead times. Businesses reliant on Suez/Bab el‑Mandeb lanes should plan for persistent volatility, capacity tightness, and higher landed costs.

Maximum-pressure sanctions escalation

The US is expanding sanctions on Iran’s “shadow fleet,” intermediaries in the UAE/Türkiye, and weapons-procurement networks, raising secondary-sanctions exposure. Compliance costs, de-risking by banks/shippers, and sudden designation risk complicate trade, contracting, and counterparty screening.