High rates and inflation persistence

Inflation expectations have climbed to 5.11%, above target, and the Selic at 14.5% may stay near 14% year-end. Elevated borrowing costs constrain credit, delay capex, pressure consumer demand, and increase hedging and working-capital burdens for multinationals.

Suez Canal Shipping Repricing

Red Sea and Hormuz disruptions are reshaping route economics through Egypt. April canal revenue rose 27% year on year to $419 million, while new transit surcharges from July 15 will raise shipping costs for tankers, LNG, bulk and ro-ro operators.

Ports and logistics modernization delays

Port reform remains stalled after the government dropped a substitute bill, leaving labor rules unresolved and reducing chances of a vote this year. Meanwhile, selective investments continue, including a R$2 billion Suape terminal, but wider logistics efficiency gains remain uneven.

Energy corridor volatility

Regional conflict continues to affect energy markets through pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and spillovers into Red Sea routes. Israel’s economy remains partly cushioned by gas exports to Egypt and Jordan, but import costs and industrial planning remain vulnerable.

Sanctions Pressure And Evasion

Tighter EU and UK sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet, finance, crypto, and energy logistics may constrain Moscow’s war funding while reshaping regional trade compliance. Businesses operating around Ukraine must strengthen screening, shipping due diligence, and sanctions-evasion controls.

Carbon Border Costs on Exports

South African manufacturers face rising carbon-related trade costs from the domestic carbon tax and the EU’s CBAM. With carbon tax at R190 per tonne and EU certificates around €70-€100, exporters, especially automotives, face margin pressure and competitiveness risks.

High-Tech Export Control Escalation

Semiconductors, AI and advanced manufacturing remain central to geopolitical competition. Even though Washington delayed new Entity List additions, more than 100 Chinese firms were reportedly under review, highlighting persistent risk of sudden restrictions on chips, software, equipment and cross-border research partnerships.

Seguridad y migración entran al comercio

La relación comercial con EE.UU. se está usando como palanca para objetivos no comerciales, incluidos seguridad fronteriza, migración, fentanilo y cadenas críticas. Esa mezcla amplía la incertidumbre política y puede condicionar acceso preferencial, inspecciones y tiempos logísticos para empresas internacionales.

China Strategic Risk Reassessment

Australia continues balancing deep trade exposure to China with stronger security hedging after earlier coercive trade restrictions, maritime incidents and interference concerns. For businesses, this means persistent geopolitical volatility around market access, investment screening, technology, and critical supply-chain concentration.

India trade deal implementation

The UK-India trade pact enters into force on 15 July, liberalising 99% of UK tariffs and 90% of Indian tariffs. It should boost bilateral trade by £25.5 billion annually, with direct implications for autos, whisky, textiles, professional mobility and sourcing decisions.

Rail Strikes and Logistics Disruption

Nationwide SNCF strikes canceled about one-third of TGV services and half of Intercités trains, while regional traffic was heavily disrupted. Labor tensions over restructuring, competition and wages create recurring transport risk for business travel, commuter reliability and time-sensitive domestic supply chains.

Export Controls Reshape Competition

U.S. export controls, sanctions, and military-linked blacklists are expanding across semiconductors, vehicles, drones, and advanced technology. These restrictions are altering partner selection, investment screening, and product design, while raising the risk that competitors in third countries capture displaced demand.

US Tariff and Compliance Frictions

Australia faces a proposed 12.5% US tariff tied to alleged forced-labour import enforcement gaps, despite a bilateral free trade agreement. The dispute increases compliance pressure on businesses, may accelerate tougher modern-slavery due diligence rules, and adds uncertainty for exporters serving the US market.

Inflation Pressures and Demand Shifts

French consumer prices rose 2.4% year on year nationally in May, while energy shocks linked to Middle East conflict are reviving cost pressures. Higher input and transport costs may squeeze margins, alter consumer demand and accelerate interest in energy-efficient products and electric vehicles.

Thailand-Vietnam Supply Chain Alignment

Bangkok and Hanoi aim to raise bilateral trade to US$25 billion within four years while expanding cooperation in electronics and semiconductors. The partnership offers supply-chain hedging and regional diversification, but also underscores competitive pressure as Vietnam attracts more manufacturing and investment.

PIF Strategy Shifts Capital Domestic

The Public Investment Fund is redirecting roughly 80% of its portfolio toward domestic projects and reducing overseas exposure from 30% to 20%. For foreign firms, this increases opportunities in local partnerships, procurement, capital markets, and Saudi-based project execution.

Political Transition and Policy Uncertainty

France is entering a sensitive pre-presidential period with no clear parliamentary majority and a difficult 2027 budget cycle. Businesses should expect elevated uncertainty around taxation, spending priorities, regulatory changes, and reform momentum as political positioning intensifies.

Talent and Labor Shortages Deepen

TSMC says talent is its biggest shortage, while Taiwan still faces gaps in water, labor, land, and power. With 26.3 million vacancies reported across industry and services and migrant workers above 870,000, employers face rising competition, training costs, and execution risk.

Pilbara Strikes Threaten Iron Ore

Industrial action at Port Hedland, gateway to over A$116 billion in annual iron ore exports, risks rail, shipping and stockpile disruption. A 24-hour BHP shutdown alone could cost about A$116 million, with broader repercussions for steelmakers, freight schedules and commodity pricing.

Trade Diversification Favors China

Brazil continues deepening trade links with China while facing friction with the United States and compliance demands from Europe. For foreign companies, this raises strategic questions around market positioning, supplier diversification, export orientation, and exposure to geopolitical competition shaping Brazilian trade and investment flows.

Infrastructure Weakness Disrupts Logistics

Germany’s aging infrastructure is becoming a direct operational risk for businesses. The closure of Bonn’s key Rhine bridge highlights transport fragility, raising delivery times and regional logistics costs, while the government promises accelerated rebuilding and wider investment in roads, rail and digital networks.

Security-first regulatory tightening

Beijing is expanding controls over outbound investment, technology transfers, data flows, and overseas staffing from July 1. This security-driven approach raises compliance burdens for multinationals, complicates cross-border R&D and treasury operations, and increases legal exposure for firms handling sensitive information.

Trade Diversification Beyond United States

With nearly 70% of Canadian exports still heading south, Ottawa is accelerating diversification to reduce U.S. dependence. Businesses should expect stronger policy support for alternative export corridors, new partnerships and strategic sectors such as critical minerals, energy and advanced manufacturing.

Rare earth coercion risk

China’s control over critical minerals has become a major supply-chain leverage point. It processes roughly 87-90% of rare earths globally, and prior export controls disrupted automakers and defense suppliers, raising risks of licensing delays, retaliation, and higher input costs.

US Trade Scrutiny Intensifies

Washington is pressing Hanoi over a roughly US$123.5 billion 2025 trade surplus, illegal transshipment, intellectual property enforcement and market access. Tighter US scrutiny could affect tariff exposure, customs compliance, origin certification and export-led manufacturing strategies for firms using Vietnam.

Security Risks in Balochistan Corridors

Escalating BLA attacks on highways, railways, energy sites and Chinese-linked projects are disrupting freight routes through Balochistan, home to Gwadar and CPEC. With Pakistan recording 1,139 terrorism deaths in 2025, logistics, insurance and project-security costs remain elevated for investors.

Tourism And Aviation Resilience

Tourism and aviation remain key hard-currency earners despite regional conflict. Egypt handled 70.7 thousand flights and 9.4 million passengers in January-April, up 7.4% and 6.8%, while incentive packages for Sharm el-Sheikh and Hurghada aim to preserve airline capacity and visitor inflows.

Suez Canal Security Shock

Red Sea instability remains Egypt’s largest external business risk, suppressing canal traffic and transit revenues. Analysts cite about $10 billion in losses, while any normalization would improve shipping reliability, lower freight costs, and support trade, tourism, and foreign-exchange inflows.

Industrial Policy Tightens Localization

Federal incentives for domestic manufacturing remain attractive, but oversight is tightening around foreign—especially Chinese—involvement in tax-credit-backed projects. Investors in batteries, clean energy, electronics, and strategic manufacturing should prepare for tougher compliance reviews, partner restrictions, and national-security screening.

Platform labor rules tightening

A new ILO convention could influence Brazil’s postponed regulation of app-based work, affecting roughly 2 million workers. Possible future rules on social security, pay transparency, algorithm disclosure and worker classification would raise compliance obligations for digital platforms and outsourced service operators.

Monetary easing versus war inflation

The policy mix is in flux as inflation appears contained but conflict-related supply constraints remain. The policy rate has fallen from 4.5% to 3.75%, and pressure for faster cuts is rising, affecting borrowing costs, consumer demand, real estate, and corporate financing conditions.

Immigration Politics Increase Friction

Tighter visa, residency, and land-purchase rules are emerging as anti-foreigner sentiment strengthens. Survey data show 66.5% support stricter foreign land regulations, creating greater policy risk for foreign executives, investors, business owners, and firms dependent on international talent mobility.

Maritime gray-zone disruption risk

Chinese coast guard and maritime enforcement activity around Taiwan, the South China Sea, and adjacent routes is raising shipping and insurance concerns. Recent harassment of merchant vessels near Taiwan underscores growing risks to freedom of navigation, operational planning, and regional logistics resilience.

Industrial overcapacity export surge

China’s manufacturing overcapacity continues pushing low-priced goods into foreign markets, with a global trade surplus near $1.2 trillion. EVs, batteries, machinery, chemicals, and solar products are central flashpoints, increasing anti-dumping risk and pressuring producers competing with Chinese state-backed scale.

Farm Stress Hits Agri Chains

Thailand’s farm economy is under strain from fertiliser costs up over 30%, diesel spikes above 60% at peak, and rice prices near an 18-year low. Debt distress across rural households threatens agricultural supply stability, purchasing power and political pressure for intervention.

Política energética frena capital privado

La disputa energética sigue siendo un foco estructural. EE.UU. cuestiona políticas mexicanas que favorecen a Pemex sobre inversionistas privados y extranjeros; esto afecta confianza en proyectos de petróleo, gas y electricidad, además de elevar preocupaciones sobre acceso al mercado y solución de controversias.