Expo 2030 Infrastructure Buildout

Construction has begun at the Expo 2030 Riyadh site, with infrastructure, design, and master-planning work accelerating and more countries confirming participation. The buildout should generate procurement, engineering, mobility, and urban-services opportunities while tightening execution and delivery requirements.

External Accounts Stabilizing Fragilely

March recorded a current-account surplus above $1 billion, remittances of $3.8 billion, and foreign reserves around $15.8 billion, with projections above $18 billion by June. Yet this stability remains exposed to oil shocks, debt repayments, and export weakness.

Customs and Tax Overhaul Pressure

Ukraine is pushing revenue reforms under IMF pressure, including customs modernization, digital platform taxation, and proposed changes to the self-employed FOP regime used by 1.6–1.8 million people. Businesses face potential compliance cost increases, labor-model adjustments, and greater formalization of economic activity.

Won Volatility Complicates Planning

The Bank of Korea says current-account surpluses no longer reliably support the won as private investors move capital abroad. Net external assets reached a record $904.2 billion, but shallow FX market depth and strong dollar demand amplify exchange-rate volatility for importers and exporters.

External financing and reform

Ukraine’s fiscal stability remains tightly linked to EU, IMF and World Bank disbursements tied to reforms. Recent legislation unlocked €2.7 billion, but missed benchmarks still threaten billions more, directly affecting sovereign liquidity, public procurement, reconstruction spending and payment reliability.

China Dependence Deepens Further

China accounts for roughly one-third of Russia’s total trade, while more settlements shift into yuan, helping Moscow bypass Western restrictions but making Russian trade, liquidity and pricing power increasingly dependent on Chinese banks, demand conditions and political decisions.

Macro Reforms and IMF

IMF-linked reforms remain the central business variable as Egypt weighs $1.5-3 billion in extra funding, targets a 6.1% fiscal deficit, and faces privatization demands. Reform execution will shape FX liquidity, taxation, subsidies, interest rates, and investor confidence.

US Trade Relationship Scrutiny

Trade with the United States remains central but increasingly sensitive. Bilateral trade reached US$141.4 billion in the first ten months of 2025, while Section 301 probes, market-economy status issues, export controls, and labor allegations could alter compliance costs and sourcing strategies.

Agricultural Exports Face Port Congestion

Agriculture remains Ukraine’s main export engine, but grain terminal congestion is creating truck queues, slower unloading, and contract-delay risks. In January-February, farm exports reached 9.95 million tonnes worth $4 billion, while bottlenecks pressure prices and complicate shipment planning for buyers.

Imported Inflation and Wage Pass-Through

A weak yen is feeding imported inflation in food and energy while wage growth momentum continues. Businesses face rising labor and input costs, pressuring margins, contract pricing, and consumer demand assumptions across manufacturing, retail, and services sectors.

Persistent Tariff-First Trade Policy

Washington is signaling that higher tariffs are structural rather than temporary, with USTR saying the US will not return to a zero-tariff world. This raises landed costs, complicates pricing, and encourages supply-chain redesign across autos, metals, and manufactured goods.

New Mineral Pricing Raises Costs

Indonesia’s revised HPM formula for nickel increases benchmark factors, captures cobalt, iron and chromium by-products, and switches to wet-ton pricing. The changes should curb arbitrage and boost state value capture, but they also increase smelter costs and contract uncertainty across metals supply chains.

US Tensions Threaten Market Access

Relations with Washington have deteriorated, with reports of a 30% US tariff on South African goods and continued scrutiny of AGOA preferences. For exporters in agriculture, autos, and manufacturing, the risk is reduced market access and greater policy uncertainty.

Energy Import Shock Exposure

Turkey imports more than 90% of its energy, leaving it highly exposed to oil and gas spikes from Middle East disruption. Officials estimate each $1 oil increase costs roughly $400 million, worsening inflation, current-account pressures, utility costs and industrial input expenses.

Export Competitiveness Under Strain

Goods exports fell 14.4% year-on-year in March to $2.264 billion, while July–March exports declined 8% to $22.73 billion. High energy tariffs, expensive credit, delayed refunds and weak diversification are undermining textile-led export sectors central to trade and sourcing strategies.

US Tariff Exposure Intensifies

Vietnamese exporters face mounting U.S. trade risk after a temporary 10% Section 122 surcharge and new Section 301 probes. Firms in electronics, furniture, and light manufacturing may need origin controls, compliance upgrades, and supply-chain restructuring to preserve market access and margins.

Export Controls as Leverage

Beijing’s wider export controls on rare earths, dual-use goods and potentially solar equipment are increasing licensing delays, compliance risk and supply uncertainty. European firms report near-breakpoint disruptions, while China’s dominance in critical inputs raises coercion and diversification pressures.

Labor Constraints Limit Reshoring

US reshoring ambitions face a workforce bottleneck. Manufacturing had roughly 394,000 to 449,000 unfilled jobs in late 2025, with a projected 2.1 million-worker shortfall by 2030, constraining factory expansion, operating costs, and timelines for greenfield investment.

War Damage Weakens Infrastructure

Strikes on energy, industrial, transport, and banking assets are increasing reconstruction needs and operational fragility. Damage to factories, bridges, railways, petrochemical sites, and payment infrastructure raises outage risk, delivery delays, labor disruption, and capex requirements for businesses with Iran exposure.

Tariff Circumvention Drives Enforcement

Roughly $300 billion of tariffed goods are estimated to reach the U.S. via Southeast Asia and Mexico, with suspicious transactions up 76% in early 2025. That is increasing customs scrutiny, origin-verification risk, and exposure to penalties for companies relying on transshipment or complex multi-country assembly structures.

Inflation Risks From Oil

Middle East tensions are feeding directly into South Africa’s fuel, transport and input costs. Brent crude rose from $69.08 to $93.67 per barrel during the review period, lifting inflation risks, threatening rate hikes, and pressuring import-dependent supply chains and consumer demand.

Tax, Labor and Demographic Pressures

Germany’s tax and labor-cost burden remains a major business constraint as the OECD puts the labor tax wedge at 49.3%, among the highest surveyed. Demographic decline could shrink the working-age population by 1.9 million by 2030, tightening labor supply further.

Trade Defence and Tariffs

The UK is tightening trade-defence tools, including a proposed anti-coercion regime, 60% lower steel import quotas and 50% out-of-quota tariffs from July. This raises compliance burdens, input costs and market-access uncertainty for manufacturers, exporters and investors exposed to UK-EU-US-China trade frictions.

Trade Remedy Risks Are Rising

Australia may open an anti-dumping case on Vietnamese galvanised steel, highlighting broader trade-remedy vulnerability as exports expand. Producers face higher legal and compliance costs, market diversification pressure, and possible margin erosion if more partners tighten import scrutiny.

Freight and Energy Cost Pressures

Middle East disruption and higher fuel prices are lifting US logistics costs, with more than 34,000 shipping routes diverted and diesel remaining elevated. Port and trucking constraints are pushing surcharges higher, reducing schedule reliability, and pressuring importers, exporters, and inventory strategies.

Data Protection Compliance Tightening

India’s DPDP regime applies extraterritorially to foreign firms serving Indian users, with penalties up to ₹250 crore per breach. Multinationals in SaaS, fintech, e-commerce, healthcare, and edtech face rising compliance costs, contract changes, and higher operational risk around data handling.

Geopolitical Spillovers, Trade Disruption

Regional conflict is affecting Turkey through oil prices, tanker disruption around Hormuz and broader uncertainty rather than direct spillover. Businesses face elevated contingency requirements for shipping, insurance, inventory buffers and market-demand assumptions, especially in energy-intensive and logistics-dependent industries.

Agribusiness Export Resilience

Brazil remains well positioned in global commodities, with strong foreign interest linked to its exporter status and trade surplus support. A firmer real and sustained demand for agricultural and energy exports benefit producers, but can complicate competitiveness for manufacturers.

Sanctions Broaden Secondary Exposure

US sanctions on Iran-linked trade are widening compliance risks for global firms, especially in shipping, energy and finance. Recent measures targeted a 400,000-barrel-per-day Chinese refinery, dozens of shippers and 19 vessels, increasing due-diligence demands across cross-border transactions.

Baht Weakness Energy Exposure

The baht has weakened more than 4% against the dollar since the Iran conflict began, reflecting Thailand's large net oil and gas deficit. Currency volatility, imported inflation and slower growth raise hedging, pricing and working-capital risks for foreign businesses.

Yen Volatility and Intervention

Japan intervened as the yen neared 160 per dollar, with the currency briefly strengthening about 3%. Continued volatility affects import costs, exporter margins, hedging expenses, and pricing decisions for international firms operating or sourcing from Japan.

Energy Transition and Data Center Buildout

Indonesia is courting AI and hyperscale investment through data localization, lower land and power costs, and large digital demand, while targeting 100 GW of solar by 2029. Reliable cleaner electricity will increasingly shape data center, industrial, and advanced manufacturing location choices.

Inflación persistente y tasas

La inflación anual subió a 4.59% en marzo, máximo de 17 meses, mientras Banxico recortó la tasa a 6.75% en una votación dividida. Las presiones en alimentos, energía y servicios pueden frenar nuevas bajas y encarecer financiamiento corporativo y consumo.

Reformas operativas y laborales

Empresas enfrentan cambios regulatorios simultáneos en aduanas, trabajo y gobernanza electoral. La reforma aduanera exige más digitalización y responsabilidad operativa; la laboral obliga a recalibrar turnos, contratos y costos. En conjunto, aumentan la carga de cumplimiento y la complejidad operativa.

Sulfur Shock Hits Battery Metals

Indonesia’s nickel processing sector depends heavily on imported sulfur, with around 75% sourced from the Middle East. Supply disruptions and spot prices near $900-$1,000 per ton are adding roughly $4,000 per ton nickel to HPAL costs and threatening production continuity.

EV Manufacturing Investment Surge

Thailand is deepening its role as an ASEAN electric-vehicle base as Chery opens a Rayong plant targeting 80,000 units by 2030. Planned trade-in incentives and local-content rules support suppliers, but intensify competition, Chinese exposure and technology-transfer dynamics for investors.