Mining export expansion and bottlenecks

South Africa dominates seaborne manganese trade (~36%) and holds ~three-quarters of identified reserves, but logistics constrain growth. Producers plan a Ngqura terminal targeting 16 Mt/year, replacing Port Elizabeth’s 5.5 Mt capacity, paired with corridor rail upgrades—offering upside if Transnet execution and permitting hold.

Trade policy uncertainty: US tariffs

Authorities warn fluctuating U.S. tariff and fee policies could disrupt Thailand’s export outlook, even as electronics-led exports recently strengthened. Businesses should expect shifting rules-of-origin scrutiny, re-pricing needs, and greater value of diversified end-markets and ASEAN FTA utilisation.

Automotive and EV competitiveness squeeze

Germany’s auto sector faces intensifying cost and technology pressure: higher energy inputs, ongoing restructuring, and tougher competition from Chinese EV makers in batteries, software and pricing. This accelerates supply‑chain shifts, localization decisions, and risk for tier‑one suppliers.

Tighter economic security regulation

Germany and the EU are strengthening foreign investment screening and security-linked controls, expanding scrutiny in critical infrastructure, tech and data. Combined with new cybersecurity and compliance expectations, this increases deal timelines, conditionality, and operational reporting burdens for multinationals.

US–Indonesia trade pact compliance

Perjanjian Perdagangan Resiprokal RI–AS memuat komitmen menahan kebijakan kuota tertentu dan pembelian (mis. 100.000 ton jagung/tahun), plus pengaturan jasa. Implementasi dapat mengubah akses pasar, menekan kebijakan proteksi domestik, dan meningkatkan risiko politik bagi sektor pangan, logistik, dan retail.

Sanctions compliance and trade diplomacy

US tariff and sanctions signalling around Russian oil purchases creates material uncertainty for exporters and investors. India secured temporary relief via an interim trade framework and OFAC licence, but legal clarity on sanctioned counterparties remains murky, elevating banking, insurance, and contracting risk.

Proxy multi-front pressure campaign

Iran is positioned to sustain “axis of resistance” operations—Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Houthis—to keep U.S. forces and partners under constant threat while limiting direct attribution. This raises persistent disruption risk for shipping lanes, contractors, and energy infrastructure across the region.

Foreign investment screening intensifies

CFIUS scrutiny and sectoral industrial-policy priorities are raising execution risk for cross-border M&A, minority stakes, and greenfield projects in sensitive technologies and infrastructure. Longer timelines, mitigation agreements, and potential deal abandonments impact capital allocation and market-entry strategies.

Investment screening and data sovereignty

Canada is tightening national-security scrutiny of foreign investment, especially in sensitive tech and data. The TikTok Canada decision proceeded only with legally binding undertakings on data protection, oversight and local presence, signaling higher compliance burdens and deal-closure timelines for investors.

Transnet logistics bottlenecks and reform

Transnet’s rail/port constraints, high debt (~R144bn) and locomotive shortfalls keep export corridors volatile. While PPPs and corridor upgrades (e.g., coal/iron-ore) progress, congestion, vandalism and maintenance backlogs elevate shipping delays, costs, and inventory buffers.

Reconstruction pipeline and guarantees

Reconstruction needs are estimated near $588bn over a decade, creating large opportunities in construction, energy, transport, and services. Deal flow depends on donor financing, PPP frameworks, and scaling war-risk insurance/guarantees (EBRD and others) to crowd in private capital.

Automotive-Transformation und EV-Nachfrage

Der Umstieg auf E-Mobilität bleibt volatil und beeinflusst Investitionsentscheidungen in OEM- und Zulieferketten. Februar 2026: 46.275 BEV-Neuzulassungen; der angekündigte Umweltbonus bis 6.000 € ist erst ab Mai beantragbar. Unklare Förderdetails bremsen Privatnachfrage, während China-Marken ~3% Marktanteil erreichen.

USMCA review and tariff volatility

High‑stakes 2026 USMCA/CUSMA review occurs amid continuing U.S. sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, lumber and more, and threats of broader duties. Expect pricing, sourcing and compliance adjustments, higher contract risk, and pressure to diversify export markets.

Sanctions volatility and enforcement risk

Western sanctions remain dynamic, with stepped-up targeting of shipping, insurance and intermediaries. Recent temporary waivers and political disputes over new EU packages increase compliance uncertainty, heightening due-diligence costs, contract risk, and potential secondary-sanctions exposure for traders, banks, and logistics providers.

EU unity crisis weakens predictability

EU member states struggled to agree on a joint response, with national divergences on legality and support for Washington. For investors, this raises uncertainty over EU regulatory reactions, emergency trade measures, and coordinated maritime-security posture affecting operations.

Manufacturing Export Competitiveness Squeeze

Potential global US levies under Trade Act Section 122 and follow-on tools could lift effective tariffs on non-chip exports (e.g., machine tools, textiles, plastics, bicycles). Taiwan’s competitiveness versus Korea/Japan may hinge on exemptions, quota access, and rules-of-origin strategy.

Nickel quota cuts reshape supply

Pemerintah memangkas kuota bijih nikel RKAB 2026 menjadi 260–270 juta ton dari 379 juta (2025), memicu potensi defisit hingga ~130 juta ton dan utilisasi smelter turun 70–75%. Risiko impor naik, biaya bahan baku meningkat, kontrak offtake tertekan.

Electronics export incentives in flux

Government is considering extending smartphone PLI (“PLI 2.0”) to sustain export momentum amid shifting US tariff regimes and renewed China competition. Continuation would support supply-chain localisation and capex, while policy uncertainty complicates long-term sourcing, contract pricing, and investment timing.

Yen volatility and rate hikes

Authorities signal vigilance over yen weakness amid BOJ tightening. Policy-rate rises and FX swings affect import costs, pricing, and hedging. Tokyo core inflation eased to 1.8% y/y while underlying remained ~2.5%, keeping uncertainty over further hikes and growth.

Broader AI chip export gatekeeping

Draft rules would require US approval for most global exports of advanced AI accelerators, even to allies, with thresholds from <1,000 to 200,000+ GPUs and possible site visits or security assurances. This could reshape data-center investment, cloud expansion, and supplier allocations.

$350bn U.S. investment execution

A new legal framework and Korea–U.S. Strategic Investment Corporation will steer up to $350bn into U.S. projects (about $20bn annually), including $150bn shipbuilding and $200bn strategic sectors. Deal execution will reshape capex, financing, and supplier localization decisions.

Renewables manufacturing and grid buildout

Government-backed projects in silicon, PV wafers, rare earths and magnetite aim to localise decarbonisation supply chains and reduce import dependence. This creates opportunities in equipment, EPC, logistics, and offtake, but execution hinges on permitting, infrastructure readiness, and skills availability.

Export competitiveness and market access

Exports—especially textiles—remain pivotal, yet vulnerable to energy costs, compliance, and foreign tariff changes. With the US a key market and EU access crucial, tighter standards or tariffs would hit orders, supplier stability, and long-term supply-chain commitments.

Supply-chain diversification into precision manufacturing

Thailand continues attracting “China-plus-one” investment in high-precision components supporting semiconductors, aerospace and medical devices. Deals such as ADM’s controlling stake in CCS Advance Tech signal capability upgrading, raising opportunities for suppliers but intensifying talent and quality competition.

Energy-price shock exposure via gas

Despite power resilience, France remains exposed to gas-market spikes through indexed contracts and industrial feedstock costs. Around 60% of gas subscribers are on indexed offers; Bercy expects impacts from May, typically under €10/month for households, but higher for energy-intensive firms.

GST formalisation and compliance intensification

GST collections and registrations are rising as e-invoicing, Aadhaar authentication, and faster SME registrations expand the tax base. Businesses face tighter reconciliation and audit trails, affecting working capital via ITC mismatches, refunds, and import-linked IGST—especially for new entrants.

FX instability and import constraints

Sanctions and limited banking access strain hard-currency availability, driving rial volatility and complicating letters of credit, repatriation, and supplier payments. Importers face higher working-capital needs, sporadic shortages of inputs and spare parts, and increased reliance on intermediaries and barter-like structures.

U.S.–China tariff regime uncertainty

Trade policy remains volatile ahead of the Trump–Xi summit, with shifting legal bases for U.S. tariffs (temporary 10% levy, renewed Section 301 probes) and China’s retaliatory options. Firms face pricing whiplash, contract renegotiations and re-routing of sales strategies.

Section 301 probes widen scope

New Section 301 investigations target “structural excess capacity” across 16 partners and forced-labor policy gaps across 60+ countries, potentially yielding fresh tariffs or import restrictions by mid‑summer. Companies face expanded documentation, supplier shifts, and retaliatory trade risk.

Energy security and clean-power reform

Power availability remains a binding constraint for factories, while Vietnam is rebooting direct clean-power purchase mechanisms and accelerating LNG and grid projects. Large energy users may gain better access to renewable supply, but should plan for price volatility, curtailment, and permitting risk.

Logistics hub push: Middle Corridor

Disruptions to sea lanes and the Northern Corridor are increasing interest in Turkey-centered land–rail routes such as the Middle Corridor and the Iraq-led Development Road. Opportunities rise for warehousing, intermodal, and port services, but capacity bottlenecks and border procedures can constrain reliability.

Nearshoring surge, industrial park buildout

Plan México is accelerating capacity for relocated manufacturing: 20 of 100 planned industrial parks are already operating, representing about US$711M investment and 3.5M m² across 10 states, targeting automotive, electronics, aerospace and logistics, reshaping site selection and supplier ecosystems.

Market diversification and new FTAs

Authorities are pushing a ‘Resilience’ export strategy: reduce concentration in top markets, expand in South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, and accelerate Thailand–EU and Thailand–UAE FTAs. The shift affects site selection, rules-of-origin planning, and supplier localization initiatives.

Energiepreise und Stromsubventionen

Deutschlands hohe Stromkosten treiben Standort- und Lieferkettenrisiken. 2026 gilt ein CO2-Fixpreis von 65 €/t; ab 2028 droht EU-ETS-Volatilität (Schätzungen 40–400 €/t). Gleichzeitig werden Industriestrompreise mit >3 Mrd. €/Jahr subventioniert und neue 10–12 GW Gaskraftwerke diskutiert.

External financing and rollover risk

Pakistan’s reserves depend on continued rollovers and refinancing from UAE, China, and Saudi Arabia, including a closely watched $2bn UAE deposit extension. Any delay would raise devaluation and capital-control risks, disrupting trade settlement and repatriation.

Missile and drone reconstitution push

Despite strikes, Iran is rebuilding missile/UAV capacity through dispersed production, hardened sites, and procurement networks abroad. OFAC actions highlight machinery and precursor-chemical sourcing. For business, this sustains long-tail regional risk, complicates investment horizons, and keeps air/sea corridors unstable.