Sanctions compliance and leakage risks

Investigations show tens of thousands of sanctioned-brand cars reaching Russia via China, including German models, often reclassified as ‘zero-mileage used’. This heightens legal, reputational and enforcement risk across distributors, logistics and financing; controls must tighten.

Water scarcity and failing utilities

Water system deterioration is a growing operational hazard, especially in Gauteng and major metros. National repair backlog is estimated near R400bn versus ~R26bn budgeted for 2025/26; outages affecting millions raise business-continuity costs and heighten ESG and social risk.

EU accession-driven regulatory alignment

With accession processes advancing but timelines uncertain, Ukraine is progressively aligning with EU acquis and standards. International firms should anticipate changes in competition policy, customs, technical regulations, and state aid rules—creating compliance workload but improving long-run market access.

Outbound chip-tech controls at home

Domestic politics are moving toward tighter controls on exporting advanced chip technologies, including proposals for legislative approval of overseas transfers. This could slow cross-border capacity moves, complicate JV structures, and raise IP localization requirements for investors.

Post-election coalition policy continuity

A Bhumjaithai-led coalition has reduced near-term political uncertainty, supporting foreign portfolio inflows and business confidence, yet cabinet allocation and reform pace remain watchpoints. Investors should monitor budget timing, regulatory direction, and the durability of the 295-seat coalition majority.

CRE losses constrain regional lenders

Commercial real estate stress—especially office and maturing balloon loans—continues to pressure regional-bank capital and credit quality. As banks retrench, availability and pricing of construction, warehouse, and SME credit worsen, affecting US expansion plans and domestic supply-chain investment.

Chabahar port and corridor uncertainty

India’s Chabahar operations face waiver expiry (April 26, 2026) and new U.S. tariff threats tied to Iran trade, prompting budget pullbacks and operational caution. Uncertainty undermines INSTC/overland connectivity plans, increasing transit risk for firms seeking Eurasia routes via Iran.

Security, vandalism and criminality risks

Persistent cable theft and rail vandalism raise insurance, security and maintenance costs and deter private participation in logistics. Broader crime elevates risk for warehousing, trucking and staff mobility, requiring fortified facilities, vetted contractors and robust business-continuity planning.

Nonbank credit and private markets substitution

As banks pull back, private credit and direct lenders fill financing gaps, often at higher spreads and with tighter covenants. This shifts refinancing risk to less transparent markets, raising cost of capital for midmarket firms that anchor US supply chains and overseas procurement networks.

Power tariffs and circular debt

Energy-sector reform remains central to IMF conditionality. Tariff redesign and circular-debt containment can shift cost burdens between households and industry, affecting margins, plant uptime and pricing. Investors face policy risk around subsidies, DISCO recoveries, and contract enforcement in generation and distribution.

Electricity tariffs and affordability squeeze

Large-user electricity tariffs are cited as up ~970% since 2007, with further hikes expected, while government plans a revised pricing policy in 2026. Higher operating costs and energy poverty pressures can hit mining, manufacturing margins, and project bankability.

Nominee crackdown and AML scrutiny

Authorities will probe 110,000 foreign-invested firms for nominee structures and shell accounts, with penalties up to three years’ jail and THB1m fines. This raises compliance, KYC/AML and corporate-structure risk for foreign investors, advisors and real-estate-linked operations.

De minimis and import enforcement

Washington is reshaping import enforcement, including curbs or suspension of duty‑free de minimis treatment and tighter screening for forced‑labor and evasion. Cross‑border e‑commerce and consumer goods supply chains should expect longer clearance times, higher landed costs, and expanded documentation demands.

US/EU trade policy pressure

Vietnam’s export engine faces heightened trade-policy risk, notably US tariff negotiations and stricter enforcement actions, plus EU standards. Record US surplus (~US$133.8bn in 2025) increases scrutiny of transshipment and origin compliance, raising duty, audit and rerouting risks.

Foreign access to government tenders

Riyadh reversed its 2024 regional-headquarters restriction for public contracts, allowing agencies to award projects to foreign firms without a Saudi RHQ via Etimad exceptions. This widens addressable government demand but adds procedural controls, pricing thresholds and compliance documentation for bidders.

Labor-law rewrite raises hiring risk

Parliament plans to enact a revised labor law before October 2026 following Constitutional Court mandates to amend the Job Creation/omnibus framework. Firms should prepare for changes in severance, contracting, and dispute resolution that could affect labor-intensive manufacturing competitiveness and investment planning.

Energy security and LNG dependence

Taiwan’s energy system remains highly import-dependent, making LNG procurement and maritime access strategically critical. Recent U.S. trade commitments include roughly US$44.4B in LNG/crude purchases (2025–2029), affecting utilities, industrial power costs, and resilience planning for manufacturers and data centers.

EU–Mercosur provisional trade opening

The EU will provisionally apply the Mercosur agreement, despite strong French opposition and court review. Likely tariff cuts reshape agri-food and industrial trade flows, intensifying competition while creating export opportunities; safeguards and compliance controls may tighten.

Tech industrial policy and AI compute

The UK is pushing advanced computing and semiconductor capability. Fractile plans £100m investment over three years, including a Bristol engineering and test facility, underscoring incentives and procurement focus. Opportunities rise for R&D, but export controls, talent scarcity, and funding selectivity shape market entry.

Aranceles y reglas automotrices

El sector automotriz, altamente integrado con EE. UU., sufre por aranceles y posible endurecimiento de origen. En 2024 EE. UU. compró 2.8 de 4.0 millones de autos hechos en México; las exportaciones cayeron ~3% en 2025 y se perdieron ~60,000 empleos.

Power security and fast load

Electricity demand is targeted to grow 15%+ in 2026, forcing accelerated generation and transmission build-out. EVN plans hundreds of grid projects and pursues cross-border imports, targeting ~8,000 MW from Laos by 2030. Energy constraints can disrupt factories, data centers, and pricing.

US/EU trade enforcement risk

Vietnam’s export boom faces rising trade-remedy scrutiny. Recent U.S. antidumping/countervailing duties include hard empty capsules with 47.12% dumping and 2.45% subsidy rates, signalling broader enforcement risk. Exporters should strengthen origin compliance and diversify end-markets.

Cross-border payments and de-dollarization

Saudi Arabia’s participation in the mBridge multi-CBDC platform (joined 2024) supports faster cross-border settlement; reported cumulative volume exceeds ~$55bn by late-2025, with e-CNY >95% of settlement value. This may broaden currency options and compliance considerations for regional trade financing.

State-backed semiconductor reshoring push

Japan is scaling strategic chip capacity via Rapidus: government took a 40% stake (11.5% voting rights) and plans further investment, targeting 2‑nm mass production in 2027. Subsidies reshape supplier ecosystems, site selection, and partnership opportunities for inbound investors.

Energy export diversification projects

Canada is accelerating west-coast export optionality, including proposals for an Alberta-to-Pacific crude line and expansion of export routes. This could reshape long-term offtake, shipping, Indigenous partnership requirements, and permitting timelines for investors.

Nuclear talks and snapback risk

Intermittent Iran–U.S. negotiations in Oman coexist with new sanctions and demands like “zero enrichment,” keeping escalation risk high. EU “snapback”/UN sanctions restoration threats would broaden prohibitions, trigger compliance resets, and deter long-cycle investment and technology transfer.

Energy security and gas pricing

Indonesia is expanding LNG infrastructure and pushing megaprojects like Inpex’s US$21bn Abadi LNG, with permitting debottlenecking and possible local-content relaxation. Industrial users seek a US$9/MMBtu domestic LNG cap, affecting power, chemicals and manufacturing competitiveness and supply reliability.

Deprem yeniden inşa ve altyapı talebi

Deprem sonrası konut, ticari ve sanayi yeniden inşası büyük kamu/özel yatırım gerektiriyor. Yabancı müteahhitlik, yapı malzemeleri ve mühendislik hizmetlerinde fırsat var; ancak ihale şeffaflığı, finansman koşulları ve yerel tedarik zorunlulukları proje riskini artırabilir.

TikTok divestiture and platform governance

TikTok’s U.S. joint venture, leaving ByteDance at 19.9% ownership, reduces immediate shutdown risk but keeps scrutiny on data handling and algorithm governance. Brands and sellers dependent on the platform face ongoing regulatory, reputational, and advertising-policy volatility.

Property slump and demand uncertainty

Housing remains a key drag on confidence and consumption despite targeted easing. January showed slower month-on-month declines, yet year-on-year weakness persists across most cities. Multinationals should expect uneven regional demand, supplier stress, and heightened counterparty and payment risks.

EU trade defenses and retaliation

EU countervailing duties on China-made EVs are evolving into minimum-price, quota, and EU-investment “undertakings,” while Beijing retaliates with targeted tariffs (e.g., 11.7% on EU dairy). Firms face higher compliance costs, pricing constraints, and fast-moving dispute risk.

Tariff regime reset, ongoing uncertainty

Supreme Court invalidated broad IEEPA-based ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, but the White House is implementing a time-limited Section 122 global tariff (10–15% for 150 days) and signaling new Section 301/232 actions. Import pricing, contracts, and compliance remain volatile.

Rule-of-law versus policy volatility

U.S. judicial constraints on emergency tariffs underscore institutional checks, yet Washington is signaling replacement measures (e.g., Section 122, 301). For Canada-based operators, the operating environment remains a mix of legal uncertainty, refund litigation and recurring trade-policy shocks affecting planning horizons.

SOE reform momentum and policy execution

Business confidence has improved but remains fragile, with reform progress uneven across Eskom and Transnet. Slippage on rail legislation, ports corporatisation and electricity unbundling timelines creates execution risk for PPPs, project finance, and long-horizon capex decisions.

Nickel quota cuts, ore imports

Pemerintah memangkas kuota produksi nikel 2026 ke ~250–270 juta ton dari RKAB 2025 379 juta; Weda Bay dipotong ke 12 juta wmt dari 42. Smelter berpotensi defisit 90–100 juta wmt dan impor bijih (2025: 15,84 juta ton; 97% Filipina) meningkat, mengguncang rantai pasok EV/stainless.

Sanctions escalation, maritime compliance

UK and partners continue expanding Russia-related sanctions and are considering tougher maritime actions against “shadow fleet” tankers. UK measures target LNG shipping services and designated energy firms, raising due-diligence burdens for traders, insurers, shipping, and commodity supply chains.