Energy policy and OPEC+ restraint

Saudi-led OPEC+ is keeping output hikes paused through March 2026, maintaining quotas amid surplus concerns and Iran-related volatility. For businesses, oil revenue sensitivity influences public spending, FX liquidity, project pacing, and input costs, especially energy-intensive industries.

EIB Lending Returns, Project Pipeline

The gradual resumption of European Investment Bank operations—reported with €200m earmarked for renewable energy—signals improving European financing access. This can catalyze infrastructure, green industrial upgrades and supplier capacity expansion, while raising compliance expectations on procurement, ESG and governance standards.

EV incentives and industrial policy resets

Les dispositifs de soutien aux véhicules électriques se reconfigurent: fin du leasing social après 50 000 véhicules, ajustements de bonus et débats fiscaux (malus masse EV lourd supprimé). Cela crée volatilité de la demande, impacts sur chaînes auto, batteries, réseau et occasion.

Сжатие азиатского спроса на нефть

Риски сокращения импорта Индией и санкционное давление увеличивают скидки на российскую нефть: дисконты ESPO к Brent около $9/барр., Urals — ~$12, а поставки в Индию падали до ~1,3 млн барр./сут. Россия сильнее зависит от Китая.

Monetary tightening and demand pressures

The RBA lifted the cash rate 25bp to 3.85% as inflation re-accelerated (headline ~3.8% y/y; core ~3.3–3.4%) and labour markets stayed tight (~4.1% unemployment). Higher funding costs and a stronger AUD affect capex timing, valuations, and import/export competitiveness.

Volatile US rate-cut expectations

Markets are highly sensitive to clustered US labor, retail, and CPI releases, with shifting expectations for 2026 Fed cuts. Exchange-rate and financing-cost volatility impacts hedging, M&A timing, inventory financing, and emerging-market capital flows tied to US dollar liquidity.

Industrial policy reshapes investment maps

CHIPS, IRA, and related subsidy programs are steering manufacturing and energy investment into the U.S., but with strict domestic-content and “foreign entity of concern” limits. Multinationals must align capex, JV structures, and supplier qualification to retain incentives and avoid clawbacks.

Logistics corridors and inland waterways

Budget 2026 prioritizes freight connectivity: new Dedicated Freight Corridor (Dankuni–Surat), 20 National Waterways, coastal cargo promotion, and ship-repair ecosystems. Goal is lower logistics friction and rerouting resilience after Red Sea disruptions, improving lead times and inventory strategy.

US tariffs hit German exports

US baseline 15% EU duty is biting: Germany’s 2025 exports to the United States fell 9.3% to about €147bn; the bilateral surplus dropped to €52.2bn. Automakers, machinery and chemicals face margin pressure, reshoring decisions, and supply-chain reconfiguration.

Volatile tariff regime and litigation

U.S. tariffs are shifting via exemptions, court challenges and congressional maneuvering, complicating pricing and customs planning. Forecast U.S. container imports fall 2% in H1 2026, with March down 12% year-on-year amid uncertainty over tariff legality and scope.

Sanctions and “blood oil” compliance

Scrutiny is rising over refined fuel derived from spliced Russian crude, with claims Australia was the largest buyer among sanctioning nations in 2025. Potential rule changes could require origin due diligence and contract flexibility, raising procurement costs and enforcement risk across energy inputs.

Import quotas for fuels tighten

Indonesia’s import caps are affecting private retailers, with Shell reporting work with government on 2026 fuel import quotas amid station shortages. Coupled with policy to stop diesel import permits for private stations, firms face supply disruptions, higher working capital needs, and reliance on Pertamina.

Disinflation and tight monetary policy

Annual inflation eased to 30.65% in January, but monthly CPI jumped 4.8%, underscoring sticky services and food risks. The central bank projects 2026 inflation at 15–21% and maintains a cautious stance, affecting credit costs, pricing, and demand planning.

India trade deals intensify competition

India’s new EU deal and evolving US tariff arrangements reduce Pakistan’s historical preference cushion, especially in textiles and made-ups. European and US buyers may renegotiate prices and lead times, pressuring margins and accelerating shifts toward higher value-add, reliability, and compliance performance.

Climate law and carbon pricing momentum

Thailand is advancing a first comprehensive Climate Change Act, with carbon-pricing and emissions-trading elements discussed in public reporting. Exporters to the EU and other low-carbon markets will face rising MRV and product-footprint demands, influencing supplier selection and capex.

Deforestation-linked trade compliance pressure

EU deforestation rules and tighter buyer due diligence raise traceability demands for soy, beef, coffee and wood supply chains. A Brazilian audit flagged irregularities in soybean biodiesel certification, heightening reputational and market-access risks for exporters and downstream multinationals.

Rail-border bottlenecks and gauge mismatch

Efforts to integrate Ukraine’s rail with EU networks highlight structural constraints: different track gauges require transshipment at borders, creating durable chokepoints. Any surge in exports or reconstruction imports can overwhelm terminals, extending lead times and pushing firms to diversify routing via Danube and road.

Improving external buffers and ratings

Fitch revised Turkey’s outlook to positive, citing gross FX reserves near $205bn and net reserves (ex-swaps) about $78bn, reducing balance-of-payments risk. Better buffers can stabilize trade finance and counterparty risk, though inflation and politics still weigh on sentiment.

Currency management and capital shifts

The yuan has strengthened toward multi‑year highs, but authorities are signaling caution to avoid rapid appreciation. Reports of guidance to curb bank U.S. Treasury exposure align with reserve diversification and yuan internationalization, affecting FX hedging costs, repatriation strategy, and USD funding assumptions.

Industrial policy reshapes investment

CHIPS/IRA-style incentives and local-content rules steer capex toward U.S. manufacturing, batteries, and clean tech, while raising compliance complexity for multinationals. Subsidies can improve U.S. project economics, but may trigger trade frictions, retaliation, and fragmented global production strategies.

Durcissement sanctions UE Russie

L’UE prépare un 20e paquet de sanctions: interdiction de services maritimes pour pétrole russe, ajout de navires “shadow fleet”, restrictions bancaires et crypto, nouvelles interdictions d’import/export. Impacts: due diligence, shipping/assurance, énergie, chaînes matières.

China trade deal and market pivot

China is offering selected duty-free access and investment/technology-transfer commitments, reinforcing China as a top trade partner. This can boost minerals, agriculture and components exports, but may deepen dependency, invite Western scrutiny, and intensify local industry competition.

Disaster and BCP-driven supply chains

Japan’s exposure to earthquakes and extreme weather is pushing stricter business-continuity planning and inventory strategies. Companies are investing in automated, earthquake-resilient logistics hubs and longer lead-time services to dampen disruption risk, affecting warehousing footprints, insurance costs, and supplier qualification.

Transactional deal-making with allies

Washington is increasingly using tariff threats to extract investment and market-access commitments from partners, affecting sectors like autos, pharma, and lumber. Businesses should anticipate rapid policy shifts tied to negotiations, with material implications for location decisions, sourcing, and pricing in key allied markets.

Foreign investment scrutiny and CFIUS

Elevated national-security screening of foreign acquisitions and sensitive real-estate/technology deals increases transaction timelines and remedies risk. Cross-border investors should expect greater diligence, mitigation agreements, and sectoral red lines in semiconductors, data, defense-adjacent manufacturing, and critical infrastructure.

Fiskalpolitik und Verfassungsklagen

Schuldenfinanzierte Sondervermögen treiben einen Großteil des Wachstums, zugleich drohen Rechtsrisiken: Die Grünen prüfen Verfassungsbeschwerden gegen Haushalt und Mittelverwendung. Unternehmen müssen mit Verzögerungen bei Infrastruktur- und Klimaprojekten, Förderunsicherheit sowie wechselnden Steuer- und Ausgabenprioritäten rechnen.

Digitalização financeira e Pix corporativo

A expansão do Pix e integrações com plataformas de pagamento e logística aceleram liquidação e reduzem fricção no varejo e no B2B, melhorando capital de giro. Ao mesmo tempo, cresce a exigência de controles antifraude, KYC e integração bancária para operações internacionais.

Minerales críticos y control estatal

México y EE. UU. acordaron un plan sobre minerales críticos y exploran un arreglo multilateral con UE, Japón y Canadá. La inclusión del litio choca con la reserva estatal mexicana, aumentando incertidumbre para JV, permisos y contenido regional en baterías, automotriz y electrónica.

Digital regulation targets big tech

Regulators are escalating scrutiny of platforms and AI: the ICO and Ofcom opened investigations into X/Grok, while CMA reforms and interventions aim for faster, more predictable merger and market oversight. International tech and investors should expect higher compliance costs and deal-execution uncertainty.

Mining investment incentives scale-up

The Mining Exploration Enablement Program’s third round offers cash incentives up to 25% of eligible exploration spend plus wage support. Combined with aggressive licensing expansion, it accelerates critical minerals supply, raising opportunities in equipment, services, offtake, and local partnerships.

Defense rearmament boosts demand

Germany is accelerating procurement, including a €536m first tranche of loitering munitions within a €4.3bn framework and NATO long-range drone initiatives. This supports select industrial orders and dual-use tech investment, but tightens export controls, compliance, and supply competition for components.

Sanctions compliance and leakage risks

Investigations show tens of thousands of sanctioned-brand cars reaching Russia via China, including German models, often reclassified as ‘zero-mileage used’. This heightens legal, reputational and enforcement risk across distributors, logistics and financing; controls must tighten.

Sanctions and compliance exposure regionally

Israel’s geopolitical positioning—amid Iran-related tensions and complex regional alignments—heightens sanctions-screening, export-control and counterparty risks. Multinationals face enhanced due diligence needs around dual-use goods, defense-linked supply, financial flows and third-country intermediaries.

Macro volatility: rates, inflation, peso

Banxico paused its easing cycle, holding the policy rate at 7% amid higher inflation forecasts and trade-tension risks. Higher financing costs and exchange-rate swings affect working capital, hedging and pricing, particularly for import-dependent industries and USD-linked contracts.

Digital regulation–trade linkage escalation

Coupang’s data-breach probe has triggered U.S. investor ISDS and Section 301 pressure, showing how privacy, platform and competition enforcement can become trade disputes. Multinationals should expect higher regulatory scrutiny, litigation risk, and bilateral retaliation dynamics in digital markets.

تعافي قناة السويس وأمن البحر الأحمر

عودة تدريجية لبعض خدمات الحاويات عبر البحر الأحمر وقناة السويس تقلّص أزمنة العبور بعد تراجع الحركة بنحو 60% منذ 2023. استمرار المخاطر الأمنية يرفع التأمين ويُبقي قابلية عكس المسارات عالية، ما يؤثر في موثوقية الجداول وتكاليف الشحن.