US–China tech controls tighten

Washington is hardening licensing and end‑use conditions for advanced AI chips (e.g., Nvidia H200), while China accelerates substitution. Expect volatile availability, compliance burden, grey‑market leakage, and shifting revenue exposure across cloud, AI, electronics and automation supply chains.

Energía doméstica: déficit y cortes

Déficits de gas/electricidad y restricciones estacionales afectan producción industrial, minería y petroquímica. Para inversores y operadores, implica menor fiabilidad operativa, mayores costos de respaldo (diesel/UPS) y riesgo de incumplimiento de contratos de suministro, además de presión social.

Финансы, платежи и валютная волатильность

Ограничения на банки и альтернативные платёжные каналы усиливаются; регулятор удерживает жёсткие условия: ключевая ставка снижена до 15,5% (с сигналом дальнейших шагов), что отражает высокую инфляционную неопределённость. Для бизнеса растут FX‑риски и стоимость капитала.

Investment screening and CFIUS enforcement

Heightened national-security scrutiny is expanding into data-rich assets and tech supply chains. DOJ actions over failed divestment orders and greater sensitivity to China-linked capital raise timelines, mitigation costs, and deal-certainly risk for foreign investors, joint ventures, and M&A in strategic sectors.

BRICS payments push sanctions exposure

Brazil’s joint statement with Russia criticising unilateral sanctions and promoting local-currency settlement comes as bilateral trade reached US$10.9bn in 2025. Firms must strengthen sanctions screening, banking counterparties and shipping/insurance checks to avoid secondary-sanctions and compliance disruptions.

Balochistan security threatens projects

Militant violence in Balochistan is disrupting logistics and deterring FDI, including audits and security redesigns around the $7bn Reko Diq project. Attacks on rail and highways raise insurance, security and schedule costs for mining, energy, and corridor-linked supply chains.

Air defence shortages constrain continuity

Interceptor shortages—especially PAC-3 for Patriot—reduce protection of cities, ports and factories, increasing business interruption and asset-damage risk. Ukraine reports near-empty launchers at times; partners are scrambling to deliver missiles from stockpiles. Insurance, project timelines and onsite staffing remain volatile.

Tax uncertainty and retrospective levies

Court-backed ‘super tax’ recoveries (around Rs310bn) and concerns over retroactive application undermine predictability. Firms face higher effective tax burdens, potential disputes and arbitration risk. This dampens FDI appetite and encourages short-horizon, defensive capital allocation.

Shadow fleet logistics and enforcement

Investigations show complex “shadow fleet” networks masking Russian oil origins, including ~48 shell firms shipping at least $90bn and rapid entity turnover. Physical enforcement is rising (detentions, fines). Shipping, insurance, and commodity traders face higher disruption, fraud, and reputational risk.

Bölgesel güvenlik ve sınır lojistiği

Suriye ile ticaret 2025’te 3,7 milyar $; ortak gümrük komitesi, sınır kapılarının modernizasyonu ve transit hızlandırma planlanıyor. Buna karşın Suriye-Irak hattındaki güvenlik dinamikleri, kapı kapanmaları ve askeri varlık tartışmaları kara taşımacılığında kesinti ve sigorta primleri riski doğuruyor.

China tech controls tightening

Export controls and licensing for advanced AI chips and semiconductor tools are tightening amid enforcement concerns (e.g., alleged diversion/smuggling of Nvidia Blackwell-class chips). Firms selling to China must implement strict KYC, end‑use monitoring, and contingency planning for abrupt rule changes.

Eastern Mediterranean gas hub strategy

A planned $2bn Cyprus–Egypt subsea pipeline (170 km, ~800 mmcfd, target 2030) would feed Egypt’s grid and LNG export terminals (Idku, Damietta). This strengthens energy security and industrial inputs, while creating opportunities in EPC, services, and offtake.

Secondary tariffs and sanctions extraterritoriality

Washington is expanding secondary measures, including tariffs on countries trading with Iran and pressure on partners over Russia-linked commerce. This raises third-country compliance burdens, increases tracing requirements across multi-tier supply chains, and elevates retaliation and WTO-dispute risks for multinationals.

FX management and dong volatility

The State Bank of Vietnam actively manages the VND within a ±5% band, with the reference rate around 25,050 VND/USD in mid-February. Importers and exporters should prepare for episodic volatility affecting margins, hedging costs, and USD liquidity planning.

Russia sanctions and maritime enforcement

London is weighing stronger enforcement against Russia’s “shadow fleet,” including potential tanker seizures under sanctions law, amid NATO coordination. This raises compliance, insurance, and routing risks for shipping, energy traders, and any firms exposed to sanctioned counterparties.

EU accession pathway uncertainty

Kyiv’s push for EU entry by 2027 is prompting debate on fast-track or “reverse” accession models, while unanimity obstacles (notably Hungary) persist. Alignment with EU law can improve market access, but regulatory change risk and timing remain material for investors.

Cost competitiveness in processing

Battery-chemical and metals processing in Australia faces high energy, labour and compliance costs versus China, highlighted by a US$4–5/kg lithium hydroxide cost gap. Expect stronger demands for subsidies, price bifurcation, and contract structures rewarding provenance.

Förderlogik und KfW-Prozesse im Wandel

KfW vereinfacht Förderprogramme, während Budgets und Kriterien (z. B. hohe Zuschussquoten bis 70% beim Heizungstausch) politisch und fiskalisch unter Druck stehen. Für Anbieter und Investoren steigen Planungsrisiken, Vorfinanzierungsbedarf und die Bedeutung förderfähiger Produktkonfigurationen.

Trade controls and dual-use scrutiny

EU anti-circumvention measures increasingly target third-country re-export routes (e.g., machinery, communications equipment) and add more Russian banks and entities. Firms exporting industrial equipment, electronics, or software face stricter end‑use checks, documentation burdens, and elevated penalties for diversion.

Monetary easing amid weak growth

Bank of England is holding Bank Rate at 3.75% after a narrow 5–4 vote, but signals likely cuts from spring as inflation trends toward 2%. Shifting rate expectations affect GBP, financing costs, valuations, and hedging for UK-linked trade.

Gargalos logísticos no Porto

O megaterminal Tecon Santos 10 enfrenta atrasos e controvérsias sobre elegibilidade no leilão, elevando risco de judicialização. Exportadores reportaram perdas: no café, R$ 66,1 milhões e 1.824 contêineres/mês não embarcados, com US$ 2,64 bilhões em divisas perdidas em 2025.

BoJ normalization lifts funding costs

The Bank of Japan’s cautious tightening bias—policy rate lifted to 0.75% in December and markets pricing further hikes—raises borrowing costs and may reprice real estate and equities. Firms should revisit capex hurdle rates, refinancing timelines, and counterparty risk.

Ports and logistics labor uncertainty

U.S. supply chains remain exposed to port and transport labor negotiations and anti-automation disputes, increasing disruption risk at key gateways. Importers may diversify ports, adjust routing, and carry higher safety stock, especially when tariff timing triggers demand spikes and front-loading behavior.

Energy import dependence and LNG

Taiwan’s tight energy margins and heavy LNG reliance create acute vulnerability to maritime disruption. Under the U.S. deal, Taiwan plans US$44.4B LNG/crude purchases through 2029, underscoring strategic stockpiling, grid upgrades, and potential cost volatility for industry.

Semiconductor reshoring and tech geopolitics

Washington continues pressing for more Taiwan chip capacity and supply-chain relocation, while Taipei calls large-scale shifts “impossible.” TSMC’s massive US buildout and parallel overseas fabs heighten capex needs, export-control exposure, and dual-footprint operational complexity for suppliers and customers.

Policy execution and compliance environment

India continues “trust-based” tax and customs process reforms, including integrated systems and reduced litigation measures, while maintaining tighter enforcement in strategic sectors. Multinationals should expect improved digitalized compliance but uneven on-ground implementation across states and agencies.

Energy export logistics bottlenecks

Longer voyages, tankers idling offshore, and ice conditions around Baltic ports are delaying loadings and reducing throughput, while ports face stricter ice-class and escort rules. Combined with sanctions-driven rerouting, this increases freight rates, demurrage disputes, and delivery uncertainty for energy and commodities.

Sanctions compliance and rerouting risks

Ongoing Russia-related sanctions and rising evidence of gray-market rerouting via third countries increase exposure for Japanese brands and distributors. Companies should tighten end-use checks, dealer controls, and trade-finance screening to avoid enforcement, reputational harm, and shipment seizures.

US–China tech controls tightening

Advanced semiconductor and AI chip trade remains heavily license-bound. Recent U.S. scrutiny over Nvidia H200 terms and penalties for tool exports to Entity-Listed firms signal elevated enforcement risk, end-use monitoring, and disruption to China-facing revenue, R&D collaboration, and capex plans.

High-tech FDI and semiconductor scaling

FDI remains strong with US$38.42bn registered in 2025 and US$27.62bn realised (highest 2021–25). Policy emphasis is shifting toward electronics, semiconductors, AI and rare earths, deepening supplier ecosystems but increasing competition for skilled labour and land.

Tariff volatility as negotiation tool

The administration is using tariff threats—up to 100% on Canadian goods and shifting rates for key partners—as leverage in broader negotiations. This raises landed-cost uncertainty, complicates pricing and contracting, and incentivizes nearshoring, dual sourcing, and inventory buffers for import-dependent firms.

Port expansion and logistics scaling

Vietnam is investing heavily to become a regional logistics hub. Seaport system investment needs are estimated at VND 359.5 trillion (US$13.8bn) by 2030, while Hai Phong and Cat Lai report strong TEU growth, reducing lead-time risk but stressing hinterland links.

Industrial decarbonisation subsidy wave

Paris is deploying large-scale state aid to keep energy‑intensive industry in France: €1.6bn over 15 years for seven sites, targeting ~3.8 Mt CO2/year abatement (~1% of national emissions). Subsidy conditionality and EU state‑aid scrutiny affect project bankability.

Digital regulation and data-sovereignty disputes

US concerns over platform fairness rules, network usage fees, and restrictions on exporting high-precision map data (Google) are resurfacing in trade talks. Tighter privacy enforcement after major breaches raises liability, audit, and cross-border data-transfer costs for tech-enabled firms.

BOJ tightening, yen volatility

Markets increasingly expect further Bank of Japan hikes (policy rate 0.75% after December) with forecasts near 1% by end-June and intervention risk around ¥160/$, driving FX volatility, funding costs, hedging needs, and repricing of Japan-based assets.

Deflation and overcapacity pressures

China’s demand remains soft: January CPI +0.2% y/y and PPI −1.4% y/y, extending multi‑year factory deflation. Firms should expect aggressive price competition, export push to clear capacity, margin compression for suppliers, and higher countervailing‑duty risk abroad.