Local content rules remain decisive

TKDN requirements continue for government procurement, with a 40% minimum (TKDN+BMP) under industry rules, despite trade‑deal debate. Multinationals in telecom, electronics, and infrastructure must localize sourcing, assembly, or partnerships to qualify for projects.

Political-legal volatility and reforms

Election disputes (e.g., QR/barcode ballot secrecy) could reach the Constitutional Court, while a referendum approved drafting a new constitution—likely a multi-year process. Legal uncertainty can delay policy execution, permitting, and major projects, raising the premium on compliance monitoring and stakeholder planning.

Defense localization and offsets

Saudi Arabia is deepening industrial participation requirements, targeting >50% defense-spend localization by 2030 (24.89% by end-2024). World Defense Show 2026 generated 60 arms contracts worth SAR33bn. Foreign suppliers face stronger tech-transfer, local manufacturing, and SME supply-chain obligations.

Energy grid attacks and rationing

Repeated strikes on generation and transmission continue to drive blackouts and reliance on electricity imports. Manufacturing, cold chains, and data centers must invest in backup power, redundant connectivity, and flexible scheduling; energy-intensive projects face higher operating costs and execution risk.

Industrial relations tightening pressures

Mining majors warn expanded union powers are raising operational friction (BHP cites 400% rise in right-of-entry requests) and could deter capital spending. International operators should model productivity impacts, bargaining complexity and labour-hire cost pass-through.

UK–EU border friction persists

Post-Brexit trade remains burdened by customs/SPS checks and ongoing regulatory divergence. Businesses report costly documentation and shifting procedures; agri-food and pharma face particular compliance complexity. This raises lead times, inventory needs and the value of EU-based distribution footprints.

Strategic sectors: drones and minerals

Ukraine’s drone output surged to about 1.5 million units in 2024, while critical minerals (lithium, titanium, rare earths) draw US/EU interest. Investment upside is high, but component supply dependencies and licensing, security, and governance risks complicate partnerships.

Import-standards reform reshapes market access

Israel’s shift toward European-aligned import standards and expanded ‘what’s good for Europe’ pathways can lower barriers for compliant products, increase competition, and change certification workflows. Firms should reassess labeling, testing, and parallel-import strategies as rules phase in.

Digital sovereignty and cloud buildout

Vietnam is expanding sovereign digital infrastructure, highlighted by G42 and Vietnamese partners’ plan to invest up to US$1bn across three data centres for AI and cloud services. Firms should assess data residency, vendor approvals, and cybersecurity obligations before migration.

Clima de inversión y certeza

El Plan México busca reactivar inversión, pero persisten señales de debilidad: menor confianza empresarial, caída en inversión de maquinaria y construcción y bajo componente de proyectos “greenfield” (US$6.5bn de US$41bn hasta 3T2025). La incertidumbre regulatoria limita decisiones.

Export logistics: Black Sea and Danube

Maritime access remains volatile as port strikes and naval risks raise freight, security, and insurance premiums. Firms diversify via Danube, rail, and EU “Solidarity Lanes,” but capacity bottlenecks and border friction can delay deliveries and complicate export contracts.

Large infrastructure spend and PPP pipeline

Government plans about R1.07 trillion over three years for transport, energy and water, with revised PPP rules and infrastructure bonds. This creates opportunities for EPC, finance and suppliers, but execution risk, procurement disputes, and governance capacity remain key constraints.

Industrial incentives, WTO scrutiny

PLI/industrial policy is deepening local manufacturing and exports (₹2.16 lakh crore investment; ₹8.3 lakh crore exports), but faces rising trade-law friction. China has triggered a WTO dispute over domestic content-linked incentives in batteries, autos and EVs.

Freight logistics and port capacity

Transnet’s reform programme is moving into executed private-sector participation deals, including Durban Pier 2 upgrades, Richards Bay and Ngqura terminal projects, and open-access rail with 11 train operators targeting operations from FY2027. Improved corridors materially affect exporters’ costs and reliability.

Fiscalización digital y aduanas

El SAT acelera auditorías basadas en CFDI, cruces bancarios y datos de comercio exterior, priorizando subvaluación, importaciones incoherentes y facturación simulada. Para multinacionales, aumenta el riesgo de ajustes, devoluciones más lentas, y necesidad de gobernanza documental y KYC.

Balancing China ties under U.S. scrutiny

Mexico raised tariffs up to 50% on some Asian imports while China seeks deeper supply-chain ties; Chinese automakers are bidding for Mexican plants. Companies face heightened origin and transshipment scrutiny, potential investment screening pressures, and reputational/political risk in North America.

Power grid and CFE investment gap

Electricity availability and interconnection delays increasingly constrain industrial expansions. Reports of reduced CFE investment and grid stress elevate outage and curtailment risk, pushing firms toward onsite generation, energy-efficiency capex, and more complex PPAs and permitting.

Foreign investment scrutiny and security

Canada is applying more assertive national-security review to sensitive sectors such as critical minerals, telecom, AI, and defense supply chains. Investors should expect longer timelines, mitigation conditions, and partner-vetting requirements—especially where state-linked capital or dual-use technologies are involved.

Anti-corruption tightening and compliance

A new Party resolution on anti-corruption and waste is set for adoption, emphasizing stronger deterrence, post-audit controls, and scrutiny of high-risk sectors. While improving integrity over time, short-term effects include slower approvals, higher documentation burdens, and elevated enforcement risk for partners and intermediaries.

Energy Supply Shock Exposure

Middle East conflict risk is testing Taiwan’s import dependence and price stability. Taiwan holds >100 days oil and >11 days gas reserves, but LNG sourcing disruptions can raise power costs. Government pursues diversification and spot purchases, affecting industrial electricity pricing.

EU-Nachhaltigkeitsregeln und Lieferkettenpflichten

Die Umsetzung/Überarbeitung von EU-CSDDD/„Omnibus“-Paketen und die Verzahnung mit deutschen Sorgfaltspflichten verschieben Compliance-Anforderungen. Fokus auf Tier‑1‑Lieferanten, Haftungsfragen und Berichtspflichten verändern Vertragsgestaltung, Auditprogramme und Lieferantenauswahl; Reputations- und Bußgeldrisiken bleiben.

Escalating sanctions and enforcement

UK and EU are widening measures against Russian energy logistics, including Transneft, banks and dozens of shadow-fleet tankers. Businesses face heightened secondary-sanctions exposure, tighter compliance expectations, contract frustration risk, and higher costs for screening counterparties, cargoes and beneficial ownership.

Ports, freight corridors, logistics capex

Budget 2026 lifts capex to ~₹12.2 lakh crore (4.4% of GDP), funding seven rail corridors, freight corridors, and logistics upgrades. Lower transit time and logistics costs can improve export competitiveness, but timelines, land acquisition, and contractor capacity remain key.

Finanzas aisladas y de-risking bancario

El aislamiento financiero (incluido el estigma AML/CFT y limitaciones de corresponsalía) restringe pagos transfronterizos, trade finance y cobertura. Aumenta el uso de intermediarios, trueque o cripto, elevando costos de cumplimiento, riesgo de fraude y demoras en liquidaciones.

Energy security and LNG flexibility

Japanese firms handled ~110 million tons of LNG in 2024; destination-restricted volumes remain ~40%, though projected to decline. JERA’s long-term Qatar deal (3 mtpa for 27 years) plus U.S. LNG adds resilience, influencing power costs and contract strategies.

Regulatory tightening on tax compliance

Implementation of a unified tax registration number and expanded invoicing/record-keeping requirements increase compliance burdens, especially for multinationals with related-party transactions. Expect more audits, documentation demands (master/local files), and potential penalties impacting operating costs.

Licenciamento ambiental e conflitos

Protestos indígenas bloquearam acesso a terminal no Tapajós, contestando dragagem e privatização de hidrovias, enquanto mudanças no licenciamento aumentam incerteza jurídica. Para agronegócio e mineração, atrasos podem interromper rotas do Arco Norte, encarecer seguros e exigir due diligence socioambiental reforçada.

Regional war disrupts logistics

Escalation involving Iran and wider fronts is lifting war‑risk insurance and forcing carriers to add surcharges. Shipping and air-cargo rates to Israel have risen roughly 10–25%, tightening lead times and increasing landed costs for importers and exporters.

Avantage nucléaire, prix électricité bas

Grâce à un mix électrique 95,2% bas-carbone et des exportations record (92,3 TWh en 2025), la France affiche des prix de gros relativement contenus vs Allemagne. Opportunité pour relocalisation industrielle, mais risque de prix négatifs et contraintes d’export réseau.

Shipbuilding and LNG carrier upswing

Geopolitical energy reconfiguration is boosting demand for LNG carriers, FLNG and related offshore projects, benefiting Korean yards. However, China is underbidding by ~10% on LNG carriers and gaining early orders, pressuring margins and delivery-slot competition through 2029.

Supply-chain localisation via PLI

India’s PLI programmes have disbursed ₹28,748 crore across 14 sectors, approving 836 projects with ₹2.16 lakh crore investment, ₹8.3 lakh crore exports and 1.439 million jobs. Import substitution is material (mobile imports down ~77%), affecting sourcing, incentives, and partner selection.

ANPD vira agência reguladora forte

A ANPD ganhou status de agência reguladora, com mais autonomia para normatizar e fiscalizar a LGPD e o “ECA Digital”. A mudança tende a elevar exigências de governança de dados, incident response e compliance, com impacto direto em plataformas, e-commerce e BPOs.

TikTok divestiture and platform governance

TikTok’s U.S. joint venture, leaving ByteDance at 19.9% ownership, reduces immediate shutdown risk but keeps scrutiny on data handling and algorithm governance. Brands and sellers dependent on the platform face ongoing regulatory, reputational, and advertising-policy volatility.

LNG expansion and permitting fast-tracks

Western Canada’s LNG export buildout is advancing, with projects in British Columbia and potential federal fast-tracking of “national interest” infrastructure. This supports long-term gas demand, port and pipeline contracting, and Asia-linked offtake, but faces Indigenous partnership requirements, legal challenges, and climate-policy constraints.

Sticky inflation, policy uncertainty

February CPI rose 2.96% m/m and 31.53% y/y, with food up 6.89% m/m; disinflation is slowing. Markets now expect a pause in rate cuts. Pricing, wage contracts, and long-lead procurement remain exposed to renewed inflation shocks.

Russia sanctions and enforcement

The UK rolled out its largest Russia sanctions package since 2022, targeting Transneft (moving over 80% of Russia’s crude exports), 48 shadow-fleet tankers and ~300 entities. Firms face heightened screening, shipping/insurance risk, and penalties for circumvention.