Juros altos e inflação persistente

O Banco Central cortou a Selic para 14,50%, mas sinalizou forte cautela, com expectativas de inflação de 2026 em 4,80%, acima do teto da meta. O ambiente mantém crédito caro, afeta investimento, demanda doméstica, hedge cambial e custo financeiro corporativo.

Export Competitiveness Under Pressure

Merchandise exports weakened while imports rose, widening the trade deficit to about $25 billion in July-February. Higher logistics, energy, and financing costs are squeezing textiles and other export sectors, reducing competitiveness and complicating sourcing, contract pricing, and capacity-utilization decisions for foreign partners.

Strong shekel export squeeze

The shekel strengthened beyond NIS 3 per dollar for the first time since 1995, compressing margins for exporters. With exports near 40% of activity, currency appreciation is raising relocation, layoffs and competitiveness risks for manufacturing and dollar-earning technology businesses.

Regional war and ceasefire

Fragile Gaza and Iran-related ceasefire dynamics remain the top business risk, with border restrictions, intermittent strikes and unresolved security arrangements sustaining uncertainty for investment timing, project execution and insurance costs across Israel-linked operations and regional trade corridors.

Hormuz Chokepoint Disrupts Trade

Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz remains the single largest business risk, with roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas flows exposed. Restricted transits, proposed tolls, and volatile access sharply raise freight, insurance, energy, and inventory costs across supply chains.

Alternative Export Route Shifts

Iran is increasingly using Chabahar and offshore ship-to-ship transfers to bypass maritime restrictions, while regional corridors through Iran toward Central Asia are expanding. These reroutings may preserve some trade flows but raise opacity, compliance, insurance, and monitoring risks.

Sovereign Risk and Capital Flows

Fitch revised Turkey’s outlook to Stable from Positive, while portfolio outflows and carry-trade unwinding exposed sensitivity to external shocks. Although CDS retreated below 240 basis points after ceasefire relief, financing conditions and investor sentiment remain vulnerable to renewed volatility.

Power Market Reform Accelerates

Ministers are moving to weaken gas-linked electricity pricing by shifting older renewable assets onto fixed-price contracts and raising the generator levy from 45% to 55%. The reform could stabilize bills and support investment, but changes revenue assumptions across energy-intensive and power sectors.

European Trade Relationship Pressure

Israel’s access to European markets faces rising political pressure as EU states debate partial suspension of preferential trade terms. With the EU accounting for 32% of Israel’s goods trade in 2024, any tariff changes or restrictions would materially affect exporters and investors.

Energy Infrastructure Recovery Push

Russian strikes continue to damage power assets, after roughly 9 gigawatts of generation capacity were previously lost. Energy reconstruction is now a top investment priority, with strong demand for distributed generation, equipment, backup systems, and private capital partnerships.

Border Bottlenecks Raise Costs

Land trade with the EU still faces costly friction at border crossings. Nearly half of surveyed firms cite queues as the top customs problem, average clearance time rose to 6.9 hours, infrastructure constraints remain acute, and repairs at key Poland crossings risk adding further delays.

War-driven inflation and rates

Oil-linked supply disruptions are lifting business costs across transport, agriculture and retail, with some forecasts putting inflation near 5.4-5.5% in coming months. That raises the risk of further monetary tightening, weaker consumer demand, and more expensive financing for corporate investment.

Reshoring Incentives Policy Reset

The government plans to broaden reshoring eligibility and ease subsidy requirements as investment slows. Reshoring firms have generated about 7 trillion won and 8,000 jobs since 2014, and new incentives could redirect supply chains, site selection, and domestic manufacturing investment decisions.

Oil Export Volatility Intensifies

Russia’s crude and product revenues jumped to $19 billion in March from $9.7 billion in February, yet Ukrainian strikes and shifting waivers cut transshipments and forced output reductions of 300,000-400,000 barrels per day, increasing energy-market and shipping volatility.

Suez Economic Zone Manufacturing

The Suez Canal Economic Zone is attracting export-oriented industrial investment, including a proposed $2 billion Chinese aluminium complex creating about 3,000 jobs. This strengthens Egypt’s role as a manufacturing and re-export base serving Europe, the Gulf, and African markets.

Frozen Assets And Reconstruction Funding

Tehran is pressing for access to billions in frozen assets and external financing for war-related reconstruction, with figures from $6 billion to about $120 billion cited. Any partial release could reshape import demand, state spending priorities, and opportunities in sanctioned-adjacent sectors.

Arctic Logistics Constrain Supply

Russia’s Arctic export strategy is constrained by shortages of Arc7 ice-class tankers and delayed domestic shipbuilding. Novatek has launched a new engineering unit, but near-term capacity remains limited, threatening LNG project scalability, delivery reliability and long-run infrastructure competitiveness.

IMF Reforms and Financing

Egypt’s business environment remains tightly linked to IMF reviews, privatization, and fiscal reforms. Cairo may seek $1.5-3 billion in emergency funding, while upcoming disbursements depend on faster state-asset sales, shaping liquidity, policy continuity, and investor confidence.

Monetary Tightening and Inflation

Turkey’s central bank held the policy rate at 37% and overnight lending at 40%, while March inflation was 30.87%. Elevated financing costs, softer domestic demand, and delayed rate cuts raise borrowing, hedging, and working-capital pressures for importers, exporters, and investors.

Regional conflict and security risk

Ongoing military confrontation spanning Gaza, Iran and Lebanon continues to shape Israel’s operating environment, with periodic escalation affecting investor sentiment, insurance costs, aviation reliability, workforce availability and contingency planning for multinationals with assets, staff or suppliers in-country.

Structural Competitiveness Erosion

Business groups and foreign investors increasingly describe Germany’s weakness as structural rather than cyclical, citing high taxes, labor costs, bureaucracy and weak digitalization. Industrial production has declined annually since 2022, raising deindustrialization risks and encouraging production or investment shifts abroad.

Sectoral Tariffs Reshaping Industries

Section 232 and Section 301 actions are extending beyond steel and aluminum into pharmaceuticals and other strategic sectors. Firms now face uneven tariff regimes, country-specific carveouts, and pressure to onshore production or negotiate exemptions, materially altering location, sourcing, and market-entry decisions.

Electronics Export Surge Reshapes

March exports jumped 18.7% year on year to a record US$35.16 billion, driven by AI-related electronics and data-centre equipment. Strong US demand supports manufacturers, but falling shipments to China and the Middle East expose concentration and geopolitical demand risks.

Middle East Energy Shock

Higher oil prices and possible Strait of Hormuz disruption are raising import costs, inflation, and logistics risk. April inflation was seen accelerating to 2.6%, while import growth reached 16.7%, exposing energy-intensive manufacturers and transport-dependent supply chains to external shocks.

US-Japan Policy Coordination Signals

Japanese officials signaled close coordination with the United States and G7 counterparts on foreign-exchange stability. For multinationals, this reduces tail-tail risk of disorderly markets but underscores that geopolitical and macro shocks can quickly influence Japan-related trade and investment conditions.

US Trade Deal Uncertainty

India-US trade negotiations remain pivotal as both sides rebuild tariff terms after a US court ruling. A temporary 15% US tariff and ongoing talks on market access, customs, digital trade, and non-tariff barriers affect exporters’ pricing and investment planning.

Fragmented Payment Settlement Channels

Banking restrictions are pushing Iran-related trade into non-dollar channels, including yuan settlement through offshore branches and third-country intermediaries. This increases transaction complexity, AML scrutiny, documentation burdens, counterparty risk, and the chance of delayed or blocked payments for cross-border business.

Legal Compliance Conflict Escalates

China’s new blocking and anti-extraterritorial rules deepen conflict between Chinese and Western legal regimes. Companies in shipping, finance, technology licensing, and data management may face mutually incompatible obligations, including fines, asset freezes, data-transfer limits, or restrictions on executives and local operations.

Energy Grid Access and Expansion

Brazil introduced new rules for transmission-grid access as connection demand rises from renewables, low-carbon hydrogen, and data centers. Expanded substations and upcoming auctions support industrial growth, but competitive access processes and permitting bottlenecks may delay power-intensive investments.

Trade Defence and Sanctions

The government is preparing anti-coercion powers allowing sanctions, export controls, import curbs or investment restrictions against economic pressure from major powers. Simultaneously, tighter Russia-diversion export licensing will raise compliance costs, especially for dual-use manufacturers shipping through intermediary markets.

Energy Import Dependence Rising

Egypt’s gas and LNG import bill is climbing sharply, with $10.7 billion earmarked for FY2026/27, about 26% above this year. Higher fuel costs, imported energy dependence, and summer supply risks raise operating expenses for industry, transport, and power-intensive investors.

Judicial Uncertainty and Tax Pressure

Judicial reform and complaints of aggressive SAT audits are deepening legal uncertainty for multinational investors. U.S. business groups warn weaker judicial autonomy and disputed tax credits could deter capital allocation, raise dispute-resolution costs, and delay long-horizon projects.

China Tech Export Controls

Washington is tightening semiconductor controls through the proposed MATCH Act, targeting DUV lithography tools, servicing, and allied-country compliance. The measures deepen U.S.-China technology decoupling, affect chip equipment supply chains, and raise compliance risk for multinationals operating across both markets.

Critical Minerals Strategic Interest

Ukraine’s minerals sector is attracting strategic Western interest through U.S. and German partnerships covering lithium, geological data digitization, and investor access. For international business, critical minerals could become a major long-term opportunity, though security and regulatory risks remain elevated.

Vision 2030 Shifts Toward Delivery

Ten years into Vision 2030, non-oil activity exceeds half of the economy and female workforce participation reached 36%, but privatization and FDI targets still lag. Businesses should expect pragmatic project scaling, stronger focus on returns, and milestone-driven implementation.

Fertiliser Security Pressures Agriculture

Urea shortages and higher input prices have exposed major agricultural supply vulnerabilities, with around 60% of Australia’s supply typically linked to Hormuz routes. Canberra secured 250,000 tonnes from Indonesia, but ongoing risks threaten farm output, food processing and freight demand.