China ties deepen strategically

Jakarta and Beijing agreed to expand cooperation in minerals, energy, artificial intelligence, rail, satellites, and fisheries, while bilateral trade reached about US$167 billion in 2025. Deeper integration creates opportunities, but also heightens concentration risk for firms exposed to China-linked ecosystems.

Chinese Overcapacity Spurs Trade Defense

Mexico and the EU are both responding to Chinese overcapacity with anti-dumping and anti-subsidy actions, targeting products from bicycles and float glass to EVs, batteries, chemicals, and machinery. This raises landed-cost uncertainty and may redirect sourcing strategies globally.

IMF review and fiscal conditionality

Pakistan’s September IMF review remains central to near-term financing, with talks tied to a $1.2 billion disbursement, revised import data, and governance benchmarks. Energy-sector reforms and circular debt resolution will shape liquidity, policy credibility, and operating conditions for lenders and investors.

Low-Value E-Commerce Tax Reform

Brazil has eliminated the 20% federal import tax on purchases up to US$50, while keeping state ICMS and allowing up to 30% charges on larger shipments. The change benefits consumers and foreign platforms but pressures domestic retailers.

Ports and rail privatization momentum

Coverage on Transnet, port concessions and the broader shift toward private involvement in infrastructure points to a major logistics transition. Improved rail and port performance would aid exporters, but the process may disrupt operators, labour relations and contracting models across key supply chains.

Enforcement Gaps Raise Compliance Risk

Australia’s inquiry found no prosecutions for Russia sanctions breaches since 2022 and highlighted weak enforcement, while Switzerland and others are tightening account closures, visa policy, and asset controls. Businesses should expect uneven enforcement, escalating due diligence demands, and reputational exposure.

Electric Vehicle Export Risks

Negotiations around EU rules of origin, subsidies and 'Made in Europe' preferences may leave British EV makers at a disadvantage. The outcome will affect investment allocation, supplier localization and competitiveness in one of the UK’s most strategically important export industries.

Middle Corridor strengthens logistics role

Turkey is consolidating its position as a regional logistics hub through the Middle Corridor, the Iraq Development Road, and revived Syrian routes. Digital tools such as eTIR and faster border procedures are being promoted to improve transit predictability and reduce supply chain delays.

Move up the value chain

Vietnam’s policy agenda is shifting away from low-value assembly toward R&D, design, branding, and higher-value manufacturing. This is important for investors because future incentives, supplier development, and market positioning will likely favor firms that deepen local capability.

Electricity reform and pricing pressure

Ramaphosa’s push to restructure the power sector, create an independent transmission system operator and publish a new pricing policy signals lower load-shedding risk but continued regulatory change. Businesses face near-term tariff uncertainty, while longer-term competition could improve reliability and investment conditions.

Global Trade Gateways Face Friction

Sanctions actions against Turkish and UAE-linked entities show Washington is willing to penalize counterparties in key commercial hubs. This increases geopolitical friction for firms operating through regional transshipment, banking, and aviation gateways that connect U.S., Middle East and Asian trade.

Export zones under IMF pressure

IMF-backed restrictions on EPZ domestic sales and eventual phase-out by 2035 are creating uncertainty for export-oriented factories. Business groups warn the curbs could damage investor confidence, disrupt the 80/20 model, and force industrial closures, especially where production by-products support cash flow.

Energy Security Drives Import Shifts

Turkey is reshaping crude, diesel, and gas sourcing under war-driven disruption and U.S. pressure. The country is moving toward U.S. crude and diesel while still relying on Russian and Iranian gas, which affects procurement strategy, pricing, and winter supply resilience.

Palestinian Labor Exposure Grows

Reports warned that sanctions and reduced settlement activity could hit Palestinian workers employed in settlement factories and farms. Companies in industrial parks such as Mishor Adumim may face operational disruption, labor turnover, and politically sensitive workforce management.

Municipal and transport digitalisation

Articles on online taxi licensing, AI-enabled monitoring, smart licensing centres and integrated transport systems show a push to digitise public services. For businesses, successful implementation could reduce downtime, corruption and administrative friction, while failures would leave bottlenecks largely unchanged.

Export Controls On Critical Inputs

China’s controls on dichlorosilane and rare earths underscore the growing use of export and import restrictions on inputs vital to semiconductors and advanced manufacturing. Businesses relying on Japanese, European, or Chinese supply chains should expect volatility, delays, and countermeasures.

Transport Reliability Under Pressure

Planned reforms include a zero-alcohol driving limit, a single ticketing system, freight growth targets and expanded rail investment. With road fatalities costing an estimated R266 billion annually, transport inefficiency remains a major drag on trade, distribution and worker mobility.

Inflation squeezes consumer demand

Inflation has been revised up to around 2.1%-2.9%, while surveys show 67% of citizens feel purchasing power has fallen. Softer household demand may pressure retail, services, and domestic supply chains.

Fiscal Strain Shapes Investment Sentiment

Brazil’s fiscal outlook remains a central risk, with gross debt around 81.9%–82.5% of GDP, a nominal deficit near 10% of GDP, and market skepticism about consolidation. Persistent uncertainty is keeping interest rates high and weighing on capital allocation.

Hormuz Security and Energy Risk

South Korea is weighing a possible role in Strait of Hormuz maritime security while facing U.S. pressure, Iranian warnings, and domestic legal constraints. With 61% of crude imports and 54% of naphtha imports routed through the waterway, any escalation could lift energy costs and disrupt shipping.

Tighter AI and telemarketing compliance

New French and EU rules on AI transparency and opt-in telemarketing are forcing offshore service providers to redesign call scripts, consent capture, and governance. The regime carries penalties up to 375,000 euros per breach and extends liability across subcontracting chains.

EU-China Trade Hardening

Berlin is aligned with a tougher EU stance on China as tariffs, anti-dumping actions, quotas and safeguard tools are discussed. This matters for exporters and importers facing shifting market access, higher compliance costs, and possible Chinese retaliation.

Steel Tariffs And Market Access

The UK is seeking relief from higher EU steel tariffs and has lowered its own tariff-free quota levels, with imports above thresholds facing 50% duties. The issue is critical for manufacturers, reshoring plans and supply-chain decisions across metals-intensive sectors.

Retirement reform remains contested

The suspension of the pension reform until January 2028 keeps retirement age, labor supply, and social stability unresolved. Candidates propose ages from 60 to 64, implying future changes to workforce availability, payroll planning, and long-term cost structures for employers.

Non-oil imports and logistics collapse

Port disruption at Bandar Abbas and reliance on inefficient land routes through Pakistan have created severe bottlenecks for industrial inputs, medicine and spare parts. Reports cite container transit times stretching from 35 days to months, with freight rates rising from about $3,000 to nearly $10,000 per container.

Supply-Chain Diversification Becomes Priority

EU and German officials are warning that dependence on Chinese inputs, overcapacity, and strategic concentration create business risk. Brussels is considering diversification tools, while German leaders say firms must reduce exposure and broaden sourcing to protect production continuity.

Energy Grid And Storage Investment

The government says growth will depend on major investment in electricity generation, the grid and storage, alongside renewables and small modular nuclear reactors. These priorities matter for industrial power costs, data centres, AI infrastructure and wider business resilience.

Europe-Israel Trade Friction Deepens

European states are acting individually because EU-wide consensus remains elusive, but the bloc still represents about 31.7% of Israel’s goods trade. Fragmented restrictions create patchwork market-access rules, complicating cross-border sales and compliance planning.

Energy Policy Supports Gas But Limits It

Australia is easing gas reservation rules while still seeking a 110% supply buffer for the east coast market and delaying implementation until 2028. The shift matters for LNG exporters, domestic industrial users and power-intensive investors facing price and availability uncertainty.

Internal barriers shape competitiveness

Canadian experts highlighted interprovincial trade barriers, regional industrial concentration and provincial divergence as major constraints. Reducing domestic barriers could offset tariff damage, but political and regulatory frictions remain significant for firms seeking a more resilient national market.

US Secondary Sanctions Expand Broadly

Washington’s Operation Economic Outcast has expanded secondary sanctions across shipping, aviation, digital assets, gold, and technology. Nearly sixty entities and individuals have been designated, creating higher compliance risk for international firms, banks, and counterparties with any Iran nexus or indirect exposure.

Sovereignty Limits Policy Concessions

President Sheinbaum repeatedly states Mexico will not sign agreements that affect sovereignty or domestic decision-making. That stance suggests some regulatory demands from Washington may be resisted, creating negotiation uncertainty for IP, patents, and market-access issues.

UK-EU Reset Negotiations

London is pursuing a five-part rapprochement with Brussels covering agricultural trade, electricity market integration, emissions trading alignment, steel quotas and EV tariffs, and youth mobility. Any breakthrough could materially ease frictions for exporters, utilities and investors exposed to EU market access.

Auto Supply Chain Exposure

Trump’s threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian vehicles, auto parts, and steel from 2027, combined with current duties, put North American automotive production and repeated cross-border parts flows at risk. Firms may need to reassess plant allocation, inventory buffers, and supplier footprints.

Industrial competitiveness versus China

Business debates at Roland-Garros focused on France’s industrial weakness and China’s competitive advantage. Proposals included quotas, stronger EU action, and fewer regulations, signaling pressure for protectionist or interventionist policies that could affect sourcing, manufacturing partnerships, and market access.

Chip Material Controls Escalate

China’s new import controls on Japanese dichlorosilane, including cash deposits up to 99.2%, threaten semiconductor supply chains and the export outlook for firms such as Shin-Etsu Chemical. The dispute adds procurement risk and reinforces the need for diversified chip materials sourcing.