Montée en puissance défense

La base industrielle de défense accélère, avec capacités en hausse et recrutements, tandis que l’UE oriente davantage d’achats vers l’industrie européenne. Effets: opportunités export, exigences de conformité, priorisation des commandes publiques et tensions sur compétences industrielles.

Supply-chain exposure to sectoral probes

Even as some broad tariffs were struck down, U.S. Section 232 investigations into additional sectors (e.g., aircraft, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals) keep Canadian exporters at risk. Companies should scenario-plan for sudden duty changes, certification requirements and localization pressures.

Infraestrutura portuária e concessões

Portos movimentaram recorde de 1,4 bilhão de toneladas em 2025 (+6,1%), com contêineres +7,2%. Leilões e autorizações somaram investimentos bilionários. Para comércio exterior, melhora capacidade e reduz gargalos, mas exige gestão de tarifas, regulação e SLAs logísticos.

Electricity grid reform uncertainty

Eskom’s revised unbundling keeps transmission assets inside Eskom, limiting the new TSO’s ability to raise capital for urgent grid expansion. Business warns this policy “U-turn” could prolong grid constraints, delay renewables connections, and revive supply insecurity for operations.

High-tech FDI and semiconductors

FDI remains resilient and shifts toward higher-value electronics and semiconductors, with 2025 registered FDI at US$38.42bn and realized US$27.62bn; early-2026 approvals exceed US$1bn in key northern provinces. This supports supply-chain diversification but increases competition for talent and sites.

Startup export momentum in deeptech

Finnish startups’ export revenues reportedly exceeded €10bn, reinforcing Finland as a scalable base for XR/simulation software and B2B platforms. For investors, deal flow is improving, though valuations, talent competition, and reliance on EU funding cycles influence entry timing and portfolio strategy.

US interim trade reset

A new US–India interim framework cuts peak US tariffs to ~18% on many Indian goods, with some lines moving to zero, while India lowers duties on US industrial and select farm products. Expect near-term export uplift but ongoing uncertainty around Section 232 outcomes.

Post-election policy continuity boost

Bhumjaithai’s clear election lead reduces coalition deadlock risk, supporting budget passage, infrastructure rollout and investor confidence. Near-term stability may lift portfolio inflows and SET liquidity, but structural reform pace and governance concerns still shape longer-run FDI decisions.

Labor shortages and foreign workers policy

Mobilization and restricted Palestinian labor have intensified shortages, especially in construction; courts are also shaping foreign-worker rules. Project timelines, costs, and contractor capacity remain volatile, impacting real estate, infrastructure delivery, and onsite operational planning.

Reforma tributária e transição IVA

A reforma do consumo cria um IVA dual (CBS/IBS) e muda créditos, alíquotas efetivas e compliance. A transição longa aumenta risco operacional: necessidade de reconfigurar ERPs, pricing e contratos, além de revisar incentivos setoriais e cadeias de fornecimento interestaduais.

Long-term LNG contracting, energy security

Jera signed a 27-year deal with QatarEnergy for 3 mtpa LNG from 2028; Japan imported 66.15m tons in 2023. More long-term contracting supports power reliability for data centers and chip fabs but locks in fossil exposure and price-index risks.

Data regulation tightening under DUAA

Most provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Multinationals face higher compliance costs for AI, marketing, and cross‑border data operations.

EU accession pathway reshaping rules

Brussels is exploring faster, phased or ‘membership‑lite’ models to anchor Ukraine in Europe by 2027, amid veto risks from Hungary. For firms, this accelerates regulatory convergence prospects, procurement localization rules, and standards alignment—yet creates uncertainty over timelines, rights, and legal implementation.

BOJ tightening, yen volatility

Markets increasingly expect further Bank of Japan hikes (policy rate 0.75% after December) with forecasts near 1% by end-June and intervention risk around ¥160/$, driving FX volatility, funding costs, hedging needs, and repricing of Japan-based assets.

Foreign investment security tightening

Ottawa is balancing growth and national security under the Investment Canada Act, amid debate about allowing greater Chinese state-owned participation in energy and resources. Case-by-case reviews increase deal uncertainty, lengthen timelines, and can impose mitigation conditions for acquirers and JVs.

Semiconductor concentration and reshoring

Taiwan remains central to advanced chips, while partners push partial reshoring. Taipei rejects relocating “40%” of the chip supply chain, keeping leading‑edge R&D on-island. Firms should plan for dual footprints, IP controls, and higher capex amid ecosystem limits.

DHS shutdown and border frictions

Repeated funding standoffs risk partial DHS shutdowns, creating operational uncertainty for TSA, Coast Guard, and oversight functions even if ICE/CBP enforcement continues. Cross-border logistics and travel may face delays, staffing disruptions, and heightened scrutiny at ports of entry and airports.

China export curbs on Japan

Beijing sanctioned 40 Japanese entities, restricting exports of dual-use goods to 20 and putting 20 more on a watch list. Escalation over security tensions raises supply-chain disruption risk for aerospace, electronics and automotive, plus countermeasure uncertainty.

Durcissement vis-à-vis de la Chine

Rapports publics et débats politiques évoquent un bouclier commercial, avec l’idée de droits de douane élevés pour contrer la concurrence chinoise (coûts 30–40% inférieurs). Les entreprises doivent anticiper contrôles, exigences d’origine, et tensions sur approvisionnements critiques.

Санкции против арктического LNG

ЕС предлагает запрет обслуживания LNG‑танкеров и ледоколов, что бьёт по арктическим проектам и логистике. При этом в январе 2026 ЕС купил 92,6% продукции Yamal LNG (1,69 млн т), сохраняя зависимость и создавая волатильность регуляторных решений.

Stablecoins and payments disintermediation

Rapid stablecoin growth threatens to siphon deposits from banks (estimates up to $500bn by 2028 in developed markets) and disrupt fee income. For corporates, faster settlement may help, but deposit outflows can weaken regional lenders’ credit provision and liquidity buffers.

High energy costs, gas risk

Germany faces structurally higher industrial power costs and renewed gas-storage risk. Storage levels were ~26–34% in early February and summer prices near winter 2026/27 reduce refill incentives; some sites may close. Energy-intensive production and contracts face volatility.

Tech export controls tightening

Stricter semiconductor and AI export controls and aggressive enforcement are reshaping tech supply chains. Recent fines for unlicensed China shipments and stringent licensing terms for AI GPUs raise compliance costs, constrain China revenues, and accelerate ‘compute-at-home’ and redesign strategies.

Customs duty rebalancing on inputs

India is cutting tariffs on critical inputs (EV batteries, solar glass chemicals, rare-earth feedstocks like monazite) to reduce China dependence and protect exporters’ margins. Multinationals should reassess landed-cost models, rules-of-origin, and supplier localization roadmaps.

Rising deception and trade opacity

Investigations uncovered a network of ~48 shell entities shipping over $90bn of Russian crude using shared infrastructure, short-lived firms, and opaque labeling. Compliance teams should expect higher documentation fraud, beneficial-ownership complexity, and elevated contractual and reputational risk.

EU market access with green compliance

An India–EU FTA conclusion and stricter EU climate/traceability tools (e.g., CBAM-type reporting) increase both access and compliance burdens for exporters in steel, aluminum, chemicals and textiles. Firms should invest in emissions data, auditing, and supplier traceability.

NATO demand for simulation

Finland’s expanding NATO role—hosting a Deployable CIS Module and accelerating defence readiness—supports sustained demand for secure training, synthetic environments and mission rehearsal. This can pull in foreign primes and SMEs, while tightening cybersecurity, export-control and procurement compliance expectations.

Ports, corridors, and logistics buildout

Cairo is rolling out seven multimodal trade corridors, 70 km of new deep-water berths, and a network targeting 33 dry ports. New financing such as the $200m Safaga terminal (with $115m arranged) supports capacity, inland clearance, and supply-chain resilience.

Defense-led industrial upswing

Industrial orders surged 7.8% m/m in Dec 2025 (13% y/y), heavily driven by public procurement and rearmament. Defense spending targets ~€108.2bn and weapons-related orders reportedly exceed pre-2022 averages by 20x. Opportunities rise, compliance burdens increase.

Inflación persistente y tasas

Banxico pausó recortes y mantuvo la tasa en 7% tras 12 bajas, elevando pronósticos de inflación y retrasando convergencia al 3% hasta 2T‑2027. Enero marcó 3,79% anual y subyacente 4,52%, afectando costos laborales, demanda y financiamiento corporativo.

LNG export surge and costs

U.S. LNG exports hit 111 million tons in 2025 and capacity may more than double by 2029, aided by faster permitting. This supports energy security for allies but can lift U.S. gas prices, tightening margins for energy-intensive manufacturers and data centers.

Strike disruptions across logistics

A renewed strike cycle is hitting transport and services: Lufthansa cancellations reached ~800 flights affecting ~100,000 passengers, while further rail and public‑sector actions are possible from March. Recurrent stoppages raise lead times, logistics costs and contingency needs.

Border crossings and movement controls

The limited reopening of Rafah for people—under Israeli security clearance and EU supervision—highlights how border-regime shifts can quickly change labor mobility, humanitarian flows and regional political risk. Businesses should expect sudden permitting changes affecting contractors, travel and project timelines.

Strategic stockpiles and resilience push

Japan’s government and industry continue building resilience via stockpiling, diversification, and domestic capability in materials and energy, accelerated by global geo-economic fragmentation. Businesses should anticipate subsidies tied to reshoring, stricter supply-chain transparency, and contingency planning expectations.

Enerji arzı çeşitlenmesi ve LNG

Türkiye’nin LNG alımları artıyor; uzun vadeli kontratlar ve FSRU kapasitesi genişlemesi gündemde. Bu, enerji yoğun sektörlerde maliyet öngörülebilirliğini artırabilir; ancak gaz fiyatlarına ve jeopolitik risklere duyarlılık sürer. Sanayi yatırımlarında enerji tedarik sözleşmeleri kritikleşiyor.

Makroihtiyati kredi sıkılaştırması

BDDK ve TCMB, kredi kartı limitleri ile kredili mevduat hesaplarına büyüme sınırları getiriyor; yabancı para kredilerde limit %0,5’e indirildi. Şirketler için işletme sermayesi, tüketim talebi ve tahsilat riskleri değişebilir; tedarikçilere vade ve stok politikaları yeniden ayarlanmalı.