Energy import shock and rationing

Israel’s force-majeure halt of ~1.1 bcf/d gas exports exposes Egypt’s structural gas deficit (~4.1 bcfd output vs ~6.2 bcfd demand). Cairo is leasing ~2 bcfd FSRU regas capacity and planning ~75 LNG cargoes (~$3.75bn), raising power and industrial risk.

Volatilidade macro e trajetória da Selic

Projeções de mercado indicam IPCA 2026 em 3,91% e Selic no fim de 2026 em 12,13%, com câmbio projetado a R$5,45. Juros ainda elevados encarecem capital e hedge, enquanto desaceleração/queda abre janelas para M&A e financiamento de cadeias produtivas.

Cross‑Strait Security Risk Premium

Persistent China–Taiwan tensions raise tail risks for shipping, aviation, and insurer pricing. Even without disruption, companies must plan for sudden sanctions, export controls, or logistics rerouting that could interrupt just‑in‑time electronics, machinery, and intermediate-goods flows.

US Tariff Volatility for Textiles

US tariff shifts and parity disputes with India/Bangladesh create order uncertainty for Pakistan’s largest export market. With textiles dominant in exports, small tariff differentials can redirect sourcing. Firms should diversify markets and build flexibility into contracts and inventory planning.

IMF program and fiscal tightening

Ongoing IMF EFF/RSF reviews dominate policy, with a roughly $1.2bn tranche linked to tax collection, spending restraint, and governance benchmarks. Slippages risk renewed FX pressure, import curbs, delayed payments, and weaker investor confidence.

Energy infrastructure and export chokepoints

Iran’s exports remain concentrated at Kharg Island, while the Jask terminal offers limited bypass capacity but slower loading. Strikes, sabotage, or operational constraints can quickly reduce throughput, amplifying volatility in regional petrochemicals, shipping availability, and upstream service demand.

Critical minerals and export controls

Dependence on China for rare earths and intermediates is a strategic vulnerability amid tightening export controls. Companies should expect higher price volatility, longer lead times, and accelerated diversification into recycling, substitute materials and non‑Chinese supply agreements for manufacturing resilience.

Expansão portuária e concessões

Leilões portuários recentes somam mais de R$15 bilhões em investimentos contratados, com megaprojetos como Itaguaí (R$3,5 bi) e o túnel Santos–Guarujá (R$6,8 bi). A agenda reduz gargalos, melhora previsibilidade e reconfigura custos de exportação/importação.

Fuel-market regulation and enforcement

Authorities are tightening oversight of minimum fuel reserves, anti-hoarding enforcement, and preparing a new fuel-trading decree while rolling out E10 biofuel from June 1, 2026. Retail disruptions and compliance checks can create short-term distribution risk for logistics, aviation, and industrial buyers.

Sanctions compliance and banking normalization

The U.S. deferred-prosecution deal to end the Halkbank Iran-sanctions case lowers tail risk, but reinforces stricter AML/sanctions controls, monitoring and correspondent-banking scrutiny. Firms should expect tougher KYC, payment screening and documentation requirements for sensitive counterparties and routes.

Reconstruction pipeline and guarantees

Reconstruction needs are estimated near $588bn over a decade, creating large opportunities in construction, energy, transport, and services. Deal flow depends on donor financing, PPP frameworks, and scaling war-risk insurance/guarantees (EBRD and others) to crowd in private capital.

Inbound travel shifts and aviation capacity

Inbound tourism and passenger flows are changing with geopolitics: Narita reported foreign travelers down ~1% y/y in January while China routes fell ~30%. This affects retail, hospitality, aviation, and cargo belly-capacity planning, especially for Asia-focused consumer supply chains.

Supply-chain reorientation to “friendly” hubs

Trade increasingly routes through China, Turkey, UAE and Central Asia via parallel imports and intermediary logistics. This diversifies access to inputs but increases compliance complexity, lead times, and exposure to sudden controls, seizures, or partner-bank de-risking.

Régulation numérique renforcée plateformes

France et Espagne poussent une nouvelle étape de régulation contre TikTok/Shein: responsabilité accrue des plateformes sur contenus/produits, transparence algorithmique, sanctions potentielles visant dirigeants. Impact sur e-commerce transfrontalier, conformité DSA/DMA, publicité, données et marketplace sourcing.

US Tariff Regime Uncertainty

After a U.S. Supreme Court ruling voided IEEPA “reciprocal” tariffs, Washington shifted to a 10% then 15% global tariff and may use Sections 301/232. Korea faces renewed exposure on autos, steel, chips, and compliance planning.

Semiconductor boom and bottlenecks

AI-driven memory demand is powering exports and growth, but concentration risk is rising. Potential U.S. semiconductor measures, transshipment via Taiwan packaging, and domestic labor unrest at major fabs could disrupt HBM supply, margins, and delivery schedules for global tech customers.

Energy security and embargo exposure

Taiwan’s heavy LNG reliance is a strategic vulnerability. A US bill proposes a joint energy security center, expanded LNG support, and protection of energy shipping; Taiwan still needs about 22 LNG cargoes for two months, with roughly one‑third sourced from Qatar.

LNG trading shift and energy security

Japanese firms are reselling record LNG volumes: FY2024 resales rose ~15% y/y and represent ~40% of handled volumes, while domestic demand has fallen ~20% since FY2018. This supports trading profits but adds exposure to oversupply, price volatility, and contract flexibility.

FDI outflows and changing investor mix

TEPAV data show net FDI outflow of about $0.9bn in Q4 2025 ($1.8bn inflows vs $2.7bn outward), despite more foreign-company formations. Investors concentrate in manufacturing and trade; shifting sources and weaker sentiment can affect deal pipelines and valuations.

Energy tariffs and circular debt

Power-sector reform remains central: tariff adjustments, subsidy rationalisation, and circular-debt containment affect industrial operating costs and reliability. Volatility in pricing or load management can erode manufacturing margins, complicate contracts, and deter new FDI.

Hydrogen acceleration and permitting

Germany will deem hydrogen projects ‘overriding public interest’ and extend fast-track rules to green and blue hydrogen with CCS. This can speed permitting and attract suppliers, but raises regulatory and sustainability scrutiny, plus technology and demand‑uptake risk for investors.

Remittances underpin external resilience

Worker remittances remain a major stabiliser: $3.46bn in Jan 2026 (+15.4% YoY) and $23.2bn in 7MFY26 (+11.3%). Strong inflows support consumption and FX buffers, but dependence on Gulf/UK corridors adds geopolitical and labour-market exposure.

FDI Regime Recalibration, China Screen

India is reviewing Press Note 3 to potentially add a de minimis threshold for small investments from bordering countries while keeping national-security screening. This could accelerate minority deals, follow-on rounds and fund participation, but approvals remain unpredictable for China-linked capital.

Energieschockrisiko durch Nahostkonflikt

Die Iran-Krise treibt Öl- und Dieselpreise; Szenarien sehen bei Brent $100 BIP-Verluste von 0,3% (2026) und 0,6% (2027) bzw. rund €40 Mrd. Höhere Energie- und Transportkosten belasten Industrie, Logistik, Inflation und Preisgestaltung internationaler Lieferketten.

Geopolitical shipping shocks and insurance costs

Middle East tensions and ship-attack risk are driving rerouting and higher war-risk premiums, feeding into U.S. import timing and freight-rate volatility. Companies should expect longer lead times, inventory rebalancing, and added costs for energy-adjacent and containerized supply chains.

Tech controls and chip chokepoints

Semiconductor policy is increasingly inconsistent yet restrictive: case-by-case licensing, new tariffs, and tighter oversight proposals raise compliance burden. China-facing fabs and tool shipments remain entangled, elevating disruption risk for electronics, autos, and industrials reliant on China-based production.

DHS shutdown operational disruption

A lapse in Homeland Security funding has scaled back parts of TSA, Coast Guard, and FEMA operations, increasing airport and cargo friction risks. Prolonged disruption can affect travel, time-sensitive logistics, and security-dependent supply chains despite continued core enforcement activities.

Débat UE sur marché électricité

La hausse du gaz relance la controverse sur la formation des prix électriques en Europe (mécanisme marginal). Industriels et certains États demandent réforme; d’autres veulent préserver la réforme 2024. Enjeu pour contrats long terme, PPA, compétitivité industrielle et arbitrages localisation.

Central European Gas Transit Leverage

Germany’s first gas deliveries to Ukraine via Rügen LNG regasification routed through Poland highlight Germany’s rising role in regional energy flows. Cross-border capacity, regulatory coordination, and geopolitical shocks can directly affect industrial continuity and energy procurement in Germany.

Regional conflict spillovers and operational risk

Gaza and wider regional escalation periodically depress tourism, disrupt Red Sea trade, and trigger energy force majeure events. Heightened security posture can affect border logistics and corporate duty-of-care, while political risk premiums raise the cost of capital and insurance.

Labor rule changes and flexibility

The Yellow Envelope law (effective March 10) broadens “employer” to include subcontractors and limits damages from strikes, worrying foreign chambers about legal uncertainty. Parallel debate on exemptions to the 52-hour workweek for strategic-tech firms affects project timelines and R&D intensity.

Foreign investment and national security scrutiny

Foreign acquisitions in sensitive sectors face sustained scrutiny under national-security settings, especially energy, critical minerals, data and critical infrastructure. Investors should expect longer timelines, conditions on governance/offtake, and higher disclosure requirements, influencing deal structuring and partner selection.

Black Sea corridor export resilience

Despite repeated strikes on Odesa-area port and grain facilities and damaged port assets, Ukraine’s maritime corridor continues shipping at scale—about 177.7m tonnes total, including 106.4m tonnes of grain, to 55 countries. Maritime risk pricing, routing and contract flexibility remain essential.

UK CBAM draft rules consultation

The government launched a technical consultation on draft legislation for a UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Importers of covered emissions‑intensive goods should prepare for new reporting, data and potentially tax liabilities, influencing sourcing, pricing, and decarbonisation investment across supply chains.

Semiconductor supply-chain fragility

Beyond chips themselves, Korea faces upstream dependencies amplified by regional conflict: over 97% of bromine imports reportedly come from Israel, and helium supply is tied to Qatar LNG output. Any disruption raises fab uptime risk, inspection-equipment delays, and costs.

Semiconductor industrial policy surge

Japan is scaling state-led chip capacity via Rapidus, with government holding 11.5% voting rights after a ¥100bn investment and planning more. Massive subsidies and prospective guaranteed lending reshape supplier localization, IP partnerships, and procurement opportunities for foreign firms.