Rising antitrust pressure on tech

U.S. antitrust enforcement is intensifying across major digital and platform markets, affecting dealmaking and operating models. DOJ is appealing remedies in the Google search monopoly case; FTC expanded an enterprise software/cloud probe into Microsoft bundling and interoperability; DOJ also widened scrutiny around Netflix conduct.

Immigration tightening strains labour

Visa and sponsor-licence enforcement is intensifying, with policy moving to end care-worker visas by 2028 and continued restrictions on overseas recruitment. Sectors reliant on migrant labour face staffing risk, wage pressure, and service disruption, pushing automation, outsourcing, and location strategy reviews.

Immigration rule overhaul and labour supply

Proposals to extend settlement timelines (typically five to ten years, longer for some visa routes) plus intensified sponsor enforcement create uncertainty for employers reliant on skilled migrants, notably health and social care. Expect higher compliance costs, churn, and wage pressure.

Tariff Volatility and Litigation Risk

On‑again, off‑again tariff actions and court challenges are driving demand swings and front‑loading. Forecasts show US container imports down 2% YoY in H1 2026, with March -12% and April -7.1%, complicating pricing, contracts, and inventory planning.

PPE 2035: nucléaire relancé

La France adopte la PPE3 par décret: six EPR2 confirmés (première mise en service vers 2038) et option de huit supplémentaires, avec objectifs ENR revus à la baisse. Impacts: coûts électriques, contrats long terme, besoins réseau et localisation industrielle.

Defense posture and maritime asset protection

Israel is prioritizing protection of Eilat approaches and offshore gas infrastructure, reflected in expanded naval readiness. Persistent maritime threats raise operational continuity and security requirements for ports, energy off-take, subsea cables and critical infrastructure suppliers operating nearby.

Oil revenues squeeze and discounts

Russia’s oil-and-gas tax receipts fell to about 393 billion rubles in January, with Urals trading at steep discounts and buyers demanding wider risk premia. Falling proceeds drive tax hikes and borrowing, raising payment-risk, contract renegotiations, and counterparty resilience concerns for exporters and suppliers.

EV policy reset and incentives

Canada scrapped the 2035 100% ZEV sales mandate, shifting to tighter tailpipe/fleet emissions standards plus renewed EV rebates (C$2.3B over five years) and charging funding (C$1.5B). Automakers gain flexibility; investors must reassess demand forecasts and compliance-credit markets.

Nonbank credit and private markets substitution

As banks pull back, private credit and direct lenders fill financing gaps, often at higher spreads and with tighter covenants. This shifts refinancing risk to less transparent markets, raising cost of capital for midmarket firms that anchor US supply chains and overseas procurement networks.

Investment screening and national security risk

The National Security and Investment regime continues to raise deal‑execution risk in sensitive sectors (defence, data, advanced tech, infrastructure). Longer timetables, remedies, and potential unwinds affect valuation and M&A structuring, especially for non‑UK acquirers and joint ventures involving critical supply chains.

Export earnings and currency pressure

Port damage is delaying exports of grain and ore, with central bank warnings of lower export revenues and added import needs for fuel and energy equipment. This raises hryvnia volatility and payment risks, impacting pricing, working capital, and hedging strategies for importers/exporters.

Nuclear diplomacy volatility

Indirect talks mediated by Oman continue amid mutual distrust, while Iran maintains high enrichment levels. Any breakdown could trigger snapback-style sanctions escalation; a breakthrough could rapidly reopen sectors. Businesses face scenario risk, contract instability, and valuation uncertainty.

Strait of Hormuz security risk

Rising U.S.–Iran tensions and tanker incidents increase the probability of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Even without closure, higher war-risk premia, rerouting, and convoying can inflate logistics costs, tighten energy supply, and disrupt just-in-time supply chains regionally.

Industrial overcapacity and price wars

Beijing is attempting to curb destructive competition, including in autos after January sales fell 19.5% y/y. Regulatory moves against below-cost pricing may stabilize margins but can trigger abrupt policy interventions, supplier renegotiations, and compliance investigations for both domestic and JV players.

Incertidumbre por revisión del T-MEC

La revisión obligatoria del T‑MEC hacia el 1 de julio y señales de posible salida o “modo zombi” elevan el riesgo regulatorio. Se discuten reglas de origen, antidumping y minerales críticos, afectando decisiones de inversión, pricing y contratos de largo plazo.

Energy transition bottlenecks and costs

UK decarbonisation continues, but grid constraints and high power costs remain a competitiveness issue for energy‑intensive industry. Delays in connections and network upgrades can slow plant expansions and electrification projects, increasing capex timelines and pushing firms to reassess UK footprint versus EU/US options.

LNG buildout and Asian markets

Canadian LNG export capacity is advancing through projects such as LNG Canada and Cedar LNG, with long-term supply contracts emerging. This supports upstream and midstream investment, but depends on regulatory certainty, Indigenous agreements, and global LNG pricing.

Energy export diversification projects

Canada is accelerating west-coast export optionality, including proposals for an Alberta-to-Pacific crude line and expansion of export routes. This could reshape long-term offtake, shipping, Indigenous partnership requirements, and permitting timelines for investors.

Ports and hubs targeted abroad

EU proposals to sanction Georgia’s Kulevi and Indonesia’s Karimun terminals signal a new precedent: third-country infrastructure enabling Russian oil may be designated. This expands due diligence from Russian entities to global transshipment nodes, increasing disruption risk in Asia and the Black Sea.

Carbon competitiveness policy uncertainty

Industrial carbon pricing (OBPS and provincial systems) remains central to decarbonization incentives, but is politically contested. Potential policy shifts create uncertainty for long-horizon projects in steel, cement, oil and gas, and clean tech, affecting capex, compliance costs, and supply contracts.

Technology dependence and shortages

Despite ‘import substitution’ rhetoric, Russia remains reliant on high-tech imports; Chinese microchips reportedly supply ~90% of needs. Gaps persist in transport and industrial capabilities, raising risks of equipment shortages, degraded maintenance cycles, and unpredictable regulatory interventions to secure inputs.

Skilled-visa tightening and backlogs

Stricter H-1B vetting, social-media screening, and severe interview backlogs—plus state-level restrictions like Texas pausing new petitions—constrain talent mobility. Impacts include project delays, higher labor costs, expanded nearshore/remote delivery, and relocation of R&D and services work outside the U.S.

Tighter tech export controls

BIS continues tightening—and sometimes recalibrating—controls on advanced computing, AI chips, and semiconductor equipment tied to China. Firms must manage licensing, end-use checks, and diversion risk through third countries, raising costs and delaying shipments in sensitive tech ecosystems.

Mining regulation and exploration bottlenecks

Mining investment is constrained by slow permitting and regulatory uncertainty. Exploration spend fell to about R781 million in 2024 from R6.2 billion in 2006, and permitting delays reportedly run 18–24 months. This deters greenfield projects, affects critical-mineral supply pipelines.

Critical minerals and lithium policy

Mexico’s lithium nationalization has not yet translated into production; key deposits are clay-based and costly to extract, with state firm LitioMX pursuing technology partnerships. Uncertainty around permitting and commercial terms complicates EV-battery supply chain plans and upstream investment.

Sanctions and export-control compliance

Canada’s alignment with allied sanctions—especially on Russia-related trade and finance—raises compliance burden across shipping, commodities, and dual-use goods. Businesses need robust screening, beneficial-ownership checks, and controls on re-exports via third countries to avoid enforcement exposure.

Treasury market liquidity drains

Large Treasury settlements and heavy auction calendars can pull cash onto dealer balance sheets, reducing liquidity elsewhere. Tightened repo and margin dynamics raise volatility across risk assets, complicate collateral management, and increase the chance of disruptive funding squeezes for corporates.

EU market access and GSP+ scrutiny

Pakistan’s duty-free access under EU GSP+ (extended to 2027) is pivotal for textiles and apparel, but remains linked to 27 conventions and rights monitoring. Any compliance slippage or preference erosion would raise landed costs and disrupt buyer sourcing decisions.

China tech controls tighten further

Stricter export controls and licensing conditions on advanced semiconductors (e.g., Nvidia H200) and enforcement actions (e.g., Applied Materials $252m penalty for SMIC-linked exports) raise compliance burdens, restrict China revenue, and accelerate redesign, re-routing, and localization of tech supply chains.

Finanzas aisladas y de-risking bancario

El aislamiento financiero (incluido el estigma AML/CFT y limitaciones de corresponsalía) restringe pagos transfronterizos, trade finance y cobertura. Aumenta el uso de intermediarios, trueque o cripto, elevando costos de cumplimiento, riesgo de fraude y demoras en liquidaciones.

Credit outlook stabilizes, debt stays high

Moody’s lifted Israel’s outlook to stable while keeping Baa1, citing resilience and ~$220bn FX reserves. However war spending has pushed debt toward ~68% of GDP and budgets target ~3.9% deficit, affecting sovereign spreads, financing costs, and public procurement capacity.

Escalating energy grid disruption

Sustained Russian missile and drone strikes are driving nationwide power rationing, forcing factory downtime, higher generator and fuel imports, and unstable cold-chain logistics. Grid repairs are slow due to scarce transformers and long lead times, raising operating costs and continuity risk.

Rail recovery and open-access shift

Transnet reports improving rail volumes from a 149.5 Mt low (2022/23) toward 160.1 Mt (2024/25) and a 250 Mt target, alongside reforms enabling 11 private operators. Better rail reliability lowers inland logistics costs but transition risks remain during access-agreement rollout.

War-driven fiscal and budget shifts

The 2026 budget prioritizes defense (about NIS 112bn) amid elevated security needs, with deficit targets still high. This can crowd out civilian spending, affect taxes/regulation, shape procurement opportunities, and influence sovereign risk and project pipelines.

Supply-chain reallocation to Vietnam

US tariff-driven diversification continues shifting export orders and supplier footprints toward Vietnam, expanding opportunities in electronics, apparel and components. Companies should anticipate capacity tightening, supplier qualification bottlenecks and heightened origin scrutiny as Vietnam gains US import share.

FX liquidity and import compression

Foreign-exchange availability and rupee volatility continue to shape import licensing, payment timelines, and working-capital needs. Even with gradual reserve improvements, firms face episodic restrictions and higher hedging costs, affecting machinery, chemicals, and intermediate inputs critical to export supply chains.