Immigration tightening and labor supply

Policies projected to cut legal immigration by roughly 33–50% over four years could deepen labor shortages in logistics, tech, healthcare, and manufacturing. Firms may see wage pressure, slower expansion, and increased reliance on automation and offshore service delivery.

Sanctions enforcement and shadow fleets

US sanctions activity is intensifying against Iran and Russia-linked networks, targeting vessels, traders, and financiers. This raises secondary-sanctions exposure for non‑US firms, heightens maritime due diligence needs (AIS, beneficial ownership, STS transfers), and increases insurance, freight, and payment friction.

Housing and construction capacity constraints

Housing commencements and completions remain below national targets, signalling ongoing constraints in labour, permitting and materials. Construction volatility can disrupt demand for building products, logistics and services, and keep pressure on wages and inflation—affecting operating costs for project-based investors.

Critical minerals alliance, China risk

Japan is aligning with the US and EU on a critical minerals framework to diversify mining, refining, recycling and stockpiling, responding to China’s export controls on rare earths. Expect tighter compliance expectations, higher input costs, and new investment incentives in non-China supply.

Industrial policy reshapes investment

Federal incentives and procurement preferences for semiconductors, EVs, batteries, and critical minerals are accelerating domestic buildouts while tightening local-content expectations. Multinationals may gain subsidies but must manage higher US operating costs, labor constraints, and complex reporting requirements tied to funding.

Transshipment and origin enforcement risk

Growing US scrutiny of origin fraud and transshipment is pushing Vietnam to tighten customs controls, creating higher audit, documentation, and supplier-traceability burdens for manufacturers. Sectors vulnerable to tariffs (e.g., solar components) face elevated trade-remedy exposure.

Canada pivots trade diversification

Ottawa is explicitly pursuing deeper trade ties with India, ASEAN and MERCOSUR to reduce U.S. dependence, while managing frictions around China-linked deals. Exporters may see new market access and compliance needs, but also transition costs, partner-risk screening and logistics reorientation.

Fiscal volatility and higher taxes

Le budget 2026 est adopté via 49.3, dans un contexte de majorité introuvable. Déficit visé à 5% du PIB, dette projetée à 118,2% et surtaxe sur grandes entreprises (7,3 Md€) augmentent le risque de changements fiscaux rapides.

Auto trade standards and market access changes

Seoul agreed to abolish the 50,000-unit cap recognizing US FMVSS-equivalent vehicles, and broader auto provisions remain in talks amid tariff threats. Even if volumes are modest, rule changes shift competitive dynamics and compliance planning for OEMs and suppliers.

Digital regulation targets big tech

Regulators are escalating scrutiny of platforms and AI: the ICO and Ofcom opened investigations into X/Grok, while CMA reforms and interventions aim for faster, more predictable merger and market oversight. International tech and investors should expect higher compliance costs and deal-execution uncertainty.

Semiconductor controls and compliance risk

Export controls remain a high‑volatility chokepoint for equipment, EDA, and advanced nodes. Enforcement is tightening: Applied Materials paid $252m over unlicensed shipments to SMIC routed via a Korea unit. Multinationals face licensing uncertainty, audit exposure, and rerouting bans affecting capex timelines.

Regional security, Hormuz risk

Military build-ups and tit-for-tat maritime actions heighten disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor for roughly one-fifth of seaborne oil. Any escalation could delay shipping, spike premiums, and force rerouting, affecting chemicals, commodities, and container traffic.

US reciprocal tariff deal pending

Indonesia and the US are preparing to sign an Agreement on Reciprocal Tariff (ART), with talks reportedly reducing a mooted 32% US tariff to ~19% and carving out key Indonesian exports. Commitments may include ~$15bn Indonesian purchases of US energy, reshaping trade flows.

Water scarcity and urban infrastructure failures

Gauteng’s water constraints—Johannesburg outages lasting days to nearly 20—reflect aging networks, weak planning and bulk-supply limits. Operational continuity risks include downtime, hygiene and labour disruptions, higher onsite storage/treatment costs, and heightened local social tensions.

Grid constraints reshape renewables rollout

Berlin plans to make wind and clean-power developers pay for grid connections and to better align renewables expansion with network build-out. Higher project costs, slower connection timelines and curtailment risks can affect PPAs, site selection and data-center/industrial electrification plans.

IMF-backed macro stabilisation momentum

Egypt’s IMF program and policy shift toward a flexible exchange rate are strengthening confidence. Net international reserves hit a record $52.6bn (about 6.3 months of imports) while inflation eased near 12%. This supports import capacity, but policy discipline must hold.

Tax and cost-base reset

Budget-linked measures raise employer National Insurance to 15% (from April 2025) and change pension salary-sacrifice NI from 2029/30, expected to raise £4.8bn initially. Combined with business-rates changes, this tightens margins and alters location, hiring, and pricing strategies.

Tariff volatility reshapes trade flows

Ongoing on‑again, off‑again tariffs and court uncertainty (including possible Supreme Court review of IEEPA-based duties) are driving import pull‑forwards and forecast containerized import declines in early 2026, complicating pricing, customs planning, and supplier diversification decisions.

Tighter tax audits and customs scrutiny

SAT is intensifying enforcement against fake invoicing and trade misvaluation, using CFDI data to trigger faster audits and focusing on import/export inconsistencies and improper refunds. Compliance burdens rise for multinationals, making vendor due diligence, transfer pricing and customs documentation more critical.

Immobilien-, Bau- und Projektpipeline-Risiko

Hohe Finanzierungskosten bremsen Bau und Real Estate: Hypothekenzinsen lagen Ende 2025 bei ca. 3,9% (10 Jahre), Neubaufinanzierungen schwächer. Der Bau-PMI fiel Januar 2026 auf 44,7. Auswirkungen: Standortverfügbarkeit, Werks-/Logistikflächenpreise, Lieferantenaufträge und Investitions-Timings.

Nuclear talks uncertainty and snapback

Muscat talks resumed but remain far apart on enrichment and scope, while sanctions continue alongside diplomacy. The risk of negotiation breakdown—or further UN/EU/U.S. “snapback” measures—creates unstable planning horizons for contracts, project finance, and long-cycle investments in Iran-linked trade.

China-tech decoupling feedback loop

U.S. controls and tariffs are accelerating reciprocal Chinese policies to reduce reliance on U.S. chips and financial exposure. This dynamic increases regulatory fragmentation, raises substitution risk for U.S. technology vendors, and forces global firms to design products, data flows, and financing for bifurcated regimes.

Undersea cable and cyber resilience

Taiwan’s connectivity relies heavily on subsea cables and faces recurrent cyber pressure. New initiatives to harden cables and telecoms signal operational risk for cloud, finance, and BPO services; companies should diversify routes, enhance redundancy, and test incident response.

Industrial policy reshoring incentives

CHIPS/IRA-style subsidies, procurement preferences, and accelerated permitting are steering investment toward U.S. manufacturing, energy, and AI infrastructure. Multinationals must optimize site selection, local-content strategies, and subsidy compliance while anticipating partner-country countermeasures.

Labour mobilisation, skills constraints

Ongoing mobilisation and displacement tighten labour markets and raise wage and retention costs, especially in construction, logistics and manufacturing. Firms face productivity volatility, compliance requirements for military-related absences, and higher reliance on automation or cross-border staffing.

Immigration and visa policy uncertainty

Shifting U.S. visa rules and politicized immigration enforcement complicate global talent mobility. Employers may face higher costs, slower processing, and tighter eligibility for H-1B and other work visas, constraining staffing for high-skill operations, construction, and tech-enabled supply chains.

Baht strength and financing conditions

The baht appreciated strongly in 2025 and stayed firm into 2026, pressuring export and tourism competitiveness while lowering import costs. With possible rate cuts but rising long-end yields, corporates face mixed funding conditions, FX hedging needs, and margin volatility.

Strategic stockpiles and resilience push

Japan’s government and industry continue building resilience via stockpiling, diversification, and domestic capability in materials and energy, accelerated by global geo-economic fragmentation. Businesses should anticipate subsidies tied to reshoring, stricter supply-chain transparency, and contingency planning expectations.

Semiconductor tariffs and controls

A tightening blend of Section 232 chip tariffs, case-by-case export licensing, and enforcement actions (e.g., a $252m Applied Materials settlement) is reshaping cross-border tech trade, raising compliance costs, and accelerating supply-chain diversification away from China.

USMCA, nearshoring, and critical minerals

Nearshoring to Mexico/Canada is accelerating, reinforced by U.S. critical-mineral initiatives and stricter origin enforcement. This benefits firms that regionalize supply chains, but raises audit burdens for rules-of-origin, labor content, and ESG traceability—especially in autos and batteries.

LNG permitting accelerates exports

A faster, “regular order” approach to LNG export permits and terminal approvals is boosting long-term contracting (often 15–20 years) with Europe and Asia, shaping global gas pricing, supporting US upstream investment, and offering buyers diversification from geopolitically riskier suppliers.

Sanktionsdurchsetzung und Exportkontrollen

Strengere Durchsetzung von EU-Russland-Sanktionen erhöht Compliance-Risiken. Ermittler deckten ein Netzwerk mit rund 16.000 Lieferungen im Wert von mindestens 30 Mio. € an russische Rüstungsendnutzer auf. Unternehmen müssen Endverbleib, Zwischenhändler und Dual-Use-Checks deutlich verschärfen.

Electricity market reform uncertainty

Eskom restructuring and the Electricity Regulation Amendment rollout are pivotal for stable power and competitive pricing. Debate over a truly independent transmission entity risks delaying grid expansion; 14,000km of new lines need about R440bn, affecting project timelines and energy-intensive operations.

India–EU FTA reshapes access

India and the EU signed a major free trade agreement expected to reduce or eliminate tariffs on most traded goods by value and deepen standards alignment. This expands market access and diversification options, pressuring competitors and influencing supply-chain site selection and investment sequencing.

US-linked investment and credit guarantees

Taiwan’s commitment to roughly US$250bn of investment in the US, backed by up to US$250bn in credit guarantees, will redirect corporate capital planning. It may accelerate supplier localization in North America while raising financing, execution, and opportunity-cost considerations at home.

Pemex finances and supply reliability

Pemex reported debt reduced to about $84.5bn and announced multi-year capex to lift crude and gas output, targeting 1.8 mbd oil and 4.5 bcf/d gas. Improved balance sheet helps suppliers, but operational execution and fiscal dependence still affect energy reliability and payments.