Ports and rail capacity recovery

Transnet is improving but remains a major supply-chain risk. Freight volumes rose to ~160.1Mt with revenue ~R42.7bn (+9.2%); coal exports via Richards Bay hit ~57.7Mt in 2025 (+11%). Yet Cape Town port backlogs can strand ~R1bn fruit shipments.

Tariff volatility and legal shifts

Supreme Court invalidation of IEEPA-based tariffs and the administration’s pivot to a temporary 10–15% Section 122 global surcharge increase short-term pricing uncertainty, refund litigation risk, and contract renegotiations for importers, exporters, and firms with tariff-indexed supply agreements.

Strategic sectors: drones and minerals

Ukraine’s drone output surged to about 1.5 million units in 2024, while critical minerals (lithium, titanium, rare earths) draw US/EU interest. Investment upside is high, but component supply dependencies and licensing, security, and governance risks complicate partnerships.

Ports competitiveness and political scrutiny

French ports face competitive pressure versus Northern European hubs, drawing heightened political attention ahead of elections. Potential reforms and labour relations risks can affect routing choices, lead times, and logistics costs for importers/exporters using Le Havre–Marseille corridors.

Energy security via long LNG deals

Japan is locking in multi-decade LNG supply, including a 27-year JERA–QatarEnergy deal for 3 mtpa from 2028 and potential Mitsui equity in North Field South. This stabilizes fuel supply, but links costs to long-term contract structures and geopolitics.

Export growth targets versus headwinds

Vietnam targets US$546–550bn exports in 2026 (+15–16%), after a 2025 record US$475bn and total trade over US$930bn. Heavy reliance on foreign-invested exporters and imported inputs increases vulnerability to demand swings, logistics shocks, and tighter standards.

Regional Security and Trade Corridors

Turkey’s role in the Black Sea and Middle East connectivity agenda is growing, but regional conflicts keep logistics and insurance risks high. Disruptions can hit maritime routes, trucking corridors and transit times, affecting just-in-time supply chains and prompting inventory and routing diversification.

Green industrial push, CBAM readiness

IEAT secured a US$100m World Bank loan to decarbonize Map Ta Phut and Laem Chabang, targeting 2.33m tonnes CO2 cuts and “Gold Standard” credits by 2026. This supports EU CBAM exposure management, but requires robust MRV, capex, and supplier compliance.

Cybersecurity mandates for supply chains

CISA directives to replace end-of-life edge devices and tighter contractor cyber rules (e.g., CMMC 2.0 rollout) raise compliance costs and vendor requirements. Noncompliance can block federal contracts and increase breach risk, affecting logistics, OT environments, and cross-border data flows.

Competition enforcement in platforms

Israel’s Competition Authority is challenging dominant platform models, signaling tougher antitrust. Wolt may lose its exemption for operating both a delivery platform and its own grocery retail chain, potentially forcing divestment—reshaping last-mile logistics, pricing, and retail partnerships.

Digital data sovereignty policy clash

A State Department cable directs diplomats to oppose foreign data-localization and cross-border transfer restrictions, citing AI and cloud impacts. This sets up sharper transatlantic and emerging-market regulatory disputes, affecting where multinationals host data, structure cloud contracts, and manage privacy-transfer compliance.

Post-election policy continuity risk

Bhumjaithai’s landslide win improved near-term sentiment, but coalition bargaining and potential reshuffles raise execution risk. Businesses should expect regulatory and budget-timing uncertainty (FY2027 disbursement delays), and prioritize scenario planning for permits, procurement, and public-project pipelines.

Regional war drives logistics shocks

Israel’s confrontation with Iran and spillovers from Gaza elevate force‑majeure risk for regional trade. Middle East airspace closures and Red Sea insecurity raise transit times, premiums and inventory buffers, disrupting time-sensitive supply chains and cross‑border service delivery.

Regional connectivity projects at risk

Strategic infrastructure tied to Iran, such as Chabahar/INSTC routes, faces uncertainty as partners reconsider funding under U.S. pressure and expiring waivers. This threatens diversification of Eurasian supply corridors, increasing reliance on other routes and reducing redundancy for time-sensitive cargo.

Semiconductor tariffs and reshoring push

A new 25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors, alongside ongoing incentives for domestic capacity, is reshaping electronics and AI hardware economics. Firms face higher input costs near-term, while medium-term investment flows shift toward U.S. fabs amid persistent dependence on foreign suppliers.

Geoeconomic bloc politics with China

US-led ‘economic security’ clubs—especially critical minerals—pressure Australia to align with tariff-enabled frameworks while China remains its largest export market. Firms face higher policy volatility, potential retaliatory trade friction, and the need to diversify routes and customers.

Energy import dependence and LNG

Taiwan’s tight energy margins and heavy LNG reliance create acute vulnerability to maritime disruption. Under the U.S. deal, Taiwan plans US$44.4B LNG/crude purchases through 2029, underscoring strategic stockpiling, grid upgrades, and potential cost volatility for industry.

Carbon market rollout and emissions caps

Vietnam is building a domestic carbon market: Decree 29/2026 sets the trading platform’s framework, with pilots through 2028 and full operation from 2029. Sector caps for 2025–26 (243–268 MtCO2e) start shaping compliance and green investment priorities.

Governance, taxation, and compliance tightening

IMF-led governance and anti-corruption reforms (procurement rules, asset disclosures, AML/CFT) may improve transparency but raise near-term compliance burden. Retroactive tax episodes and aggressive revenue drives increase legal and policy uncertainty, affecting investment underwriting and contract enforceability assumptions.

Semiconductor concentration and reshoring

Taiwan remains central to advanced chips, while partners push partial reshoring. Taipei rejects relocating “40%” of the chip supply chain, keeping leading‑edge R&D on-island. Firms should plan for dual footprints, IP controls, and higher capex amid ecosystem limits.

West Bank policy escalation and sanctions risk

Cabinet moves to deepen West Bank control and ease land acquisition for settlements raise diplomatic friction. Companies face heightened reputational exposure, potential EU/US policy responses, and tighter due diligence on counterparties, locations, and projects linked to occupied territories.

Corporate governance and capital efficiency

Regulators and the TSE are revising the governance code to push boards to deploy large cash balances into growth investment. Toyota is considering a ~¥3 trillion cross‑shareholding unwind. These shifts can catalyze buybacks, M&A, and improved foreign investor returns.

Tariff whiplash and uncertainty

A Supreme Court ruling invalidated broad IEEPA-based tariffs, but the administration quickly pivoted to a temporary 10–15% global surcharge under Section 122 (150-day limit). Firms face pricing volatility, contract renegotiations, and elevated country-allocation risk.

Natural gas exports and regional deals

Israeli gas flows to Egypt have risen with pipelines reportedly at full capacity, supporting regional power and LNG dynamics. Export reliability and pricing depend on security and contract reforms in Egypt, influencing energy-intensive industries and investment in infrastructure.

Chabahar port and corridor uncertainty

India’s Chabahar operations face waiver expiry (April 26, 2026) and new U.S. tariff threats tied to Iran trade, prompting budget pullbacks and operational caution. Uncertainty undermines INSTC/overland connectivity plans, increasing transit risk for firms seeking Eurasia routes via Iran.

China engagement versus U.S. backlash

Canada’s limited tariff adjustments with China (e.g., canola oil and EVs) are triggering U.S. political retaliation threats, including extreme tariff proposals. Firms exposed to China-linked supply chains face higher geopolitical friction, compliance scrutiny and potential forced rebalancing toward allied markets.

Tighter liquidity, shifting finance rules

Interbank rates spiked to ~16–17% before easing, reflecting periodic VND liquidity stress. Plans to test removing credit quotas by 2026 and adopt Basel III buffers (to 10.5% by 2030) may constrain weaker banks, tighten financing and widen funding costs for corporates.

Secondary pressure on Iran trade

Expanded maximum-pressure measures—new sanctions on Iran’s oil/petrochemical networks and proposals for broad punitive tariffs on countries trading with Iran—raise exposure for shippers, insurers, banks, and traders, increasing due‑diligence costs and disrupting energy and commodity logistics routes.

Labour shortages and mobilisation pressure

Mobilisation and displacement continue to tighten labour markets, raising wage pressure and reducing skilled workforce availability in manufacturing, construction, and logistics. Companies face productivity constraints, higher training costs, and execution risk for reconstruction projects and long-duration contracts.

TikTok divestiture and platform governance

TikTok’s U.S. joint venture, leaving ByteDance at 19.9% ownership, reduces immediate shutdown risk but keeps scrutiny on data handling and algorithm governance. Brands and sellers dependent on the platform face ongoing regulatory, reputational, and advertising-policy volatility.

Black Sea export corridor volatility

Ukraine’s maritime corridor via Odesa–Chornomorsk–Pivdennyi stays open but under intensified attacks on ports and shipping. Volumes swing sharply and insurance premiums remain elevated, complicating contract fulfillment for grain, metals, and containerized cargo and increasing lead-time uncertainty.

Environmental approvals and compliance

EPBC reforms and high-profile enforcement (Alcoa’s AU$55m undertaking; “national interest” exemptions tied to minerals projects) increase uncertainty for miners, infrastructure and renewables. Expect higher due-diligence burdens, litigation exposure and conditional operating constraints.

AB Gümrük Birliği modernizasyonu

AB ve Türkiye, Gümrük Birliği’nin güncellenmesi ve uygulamanın iyileştirilmesi için çalışmayı yeniden canlandırıyor; EIB operasyonlarının kademeli dönüşü de gündemde. İlerleme, tarım-hizmetler-kamu alımları kapsaması, uyum maliyetleri ve AB pazarına erişim/menşe kurallarında değişim yaratabilir.

U.S. tariffs and USMCA review

Ongoing U.S. Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos, plus uncertainty ahead of the USMCA/CUSMA review, are reshaping pricing, investment and sourcing decisions. Court action narrowed some emergency tariffs, but new U.S. tools keep policy volatility high.

Selic alta e crédito restrito

Com Selic em torno de 15% a.a., o custo financeiro pressiona consumo e investimento, reduz fôlego de empresas e encarece hedge cambial. A expectativa de cortes depende de inflação e credibilidade fiscal, afetando decisões de capex, estoques e financiamento de comércio exterior.

Tech resilience amid talent outflow

Israel’s tech sector remains pivotal (around 60% of exports) but faces brain-drain concerns, with reports of ~90,000 departures since 2023. Continued VC activity and large exits support liquidity, yet hiring constraints and reputational risk can affect scaling and site-location decisions.