Macroeconomic rebound with fiscal strain

IMF projects Israel could grow about 4.8% in 2026 if the ceasefire holds, driven by delayed consumption and investment. However, war-related debt, defense spending and labor constraints pressure fiscal consolidation, influencing taxation, public procurement priorities, and sovereign risk pricing.

Regulação de dados e compliance LGPD

A Câmara aprovou MP que transforma a ANPD em agência reguladora, com carreira própria e maior capacidade de fiscalização. Isso tende a elevar enforcement, custos de conformidade e exigências contratuais, especialmente em cadeias com compartilhamento internacional de dados.

Energy grid attacks, rationing risk

Sustained missile and drone strikes are damaging transmission lines, substations and thermal plants, triggering nationwide outages and forcing nuclear units to reduce load. Expect operational downtime, higher generator/backup costs, constrained production schedules, and rising insurance/security requirements.

Fiscal activism and policy uncertainty

Snap election dynamics and proposed tax/spending shifts are raising fiscal-risk scrutiny for Japan’s high-debt sovereign, influencing rates, infrastructure budgets and public procurement. For investors, this can move funding costs, affect stimulus-linked sectors, and increase scenario-planning needs around policy reversals.

Immigration rule overhaul and labour supply

Proposals to extend settlement timelines (typically five to ten years, longer for some visa routes) plus intensified sponsor enforcement create uncertainty for employers reliant on skilled migrants, notably health and social care. Expect higher compliance costs, churn, and wage pressure.

US–Taiwan reciprocal trade deal

The new U.S.–Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade locks a 15% U.S. tariff on Taiwanese goods while Taiwan cuts most U.S. import tariffs and tackles non‑tariff barriers. It reshapes sourcing, compliance, pricing, and investment decisions across agriculture, autos, pharma, and advanced manufacturing.

Stricter data-breach liability regime

Proposed amendments to the Personal Information Protection Act would shift burden of proof toward companies, expand statutory damages, and add penalties for leaked-data distribution. Compliance, incident response, and cyber insurance costs likely rise, especially for high-volume consumer platforms and telecoms.

AI Basic Act compliance duties

South Korea’s AI Basic Act introduces requirements for transparency and labeling of AI-generated content, plus human oversight for high-impact uses in health, transport and finance. Foreign providers with large user bases may need local presence, raising compliance and operating overhead.

Tax uncertainty and retrospective levies

Court-backed ‘super tax’ recoveries (around Rs310bn) and concerns over retroactive application undermine predictability. Firms face higher effective tax burdens, potential disputes and arbitration risk. This dampens FDI appetite and encourages short-horizon, defensive capital allocation.

Bölgesel yeniden inşa ve altyapı ihaleleri

Deprem bölgesinde ulaşım hatları ve sanayi bağlantılarını güçlendiren yeni demiryolu projeleri (ör. Nurdağı–Kahramanmaraş) planlanıyor. Bu, inşaat, lojistik, çimento-çelik ve makine ekipman talebini artırırken; ihale şartları, finansman ve yerel kapasite kısıtları risk yaratabilir.

Cost-competitiveness in processing

High energy, labor and compliance costs are challenging Australia’s ambitions to move up the value chain, illustrated by the planned closure of a WA lithium refinery amid weak prices. Investors should stress-test projects for cost inflation and price bifurcation scenarios.

Digital regulation and data enforcement

US states are escalating privacy, AI, and children’s online-safety enforcement, creating a fragmented compliance landscape alongside EU rules. Multinationals must manage divergent consent, age-assurance, and data-broker obligations, with rising litigation and enforcement risk affecting digital business models.

Environmental licensing and ESG exposure

Congressional disputes over environmental licensing reforms and tighter deforestation scrutiny are increasing permitting uncertainty for infrastructure, mining and agribusiness. Exporters face rising compliance demands—especially linked to deforestation-free requirements—raising audit, traceability and contract-risk costs across supply chains.

Transition and decarbonisation investment needs

Grid expansion plans imply roughly R400bn over 10 years and ~14,400km new lines to connect renewables, amid coal plant retirements around 2029–2030. Financing structure and JETP-linked funding conditions will shape ESG exposure, carbon costs, and industrial siting decisions.

Foreign investment approvals and regulation drag

Multinational CEOs report slower, costlier approvals and heavier compliance. OECD ranks Australia highly restrictive for foreign investment screening; nearly half of applications exceeded statutory timelines, and fees have risen sharply. Deal certainty, transaction costs and time-to-market are increasingly material planning factors.

US–India tariff reset framework

A new interim framework cuts US reciprocal tariffs on Indian-origin goods to 18% (from peaks near 50%) while India lowers barriers on US industrial and selected farm goods. Expect near-term export upside, but compliance, sector carve-outs and implementation timelines remain uncertain.

BOI Fast Pass investment surge

Government is accelerating roughly THB480bn of BOI-approved projects via “Fast Pass,” targeting over THB1.1tn total investment in 2026. This boosts near-term capex, industrial demand, and supplier opportunities, but increases competition for land, utilities, and skilled labor.

Reconstruction finance and procurement

Large-scale rebuilding is accelerating demand for engineering, equipment, logistics, and services, often tied to donor financing and transparency requirements. Access hinges on compliant procurement, local partnerships, and managing corruption and integrity risks in high-value public contracts.

Fiskalpolitik und Verfassungsklagen

Schuldenfinanzierte Sondervermögen treiben einen Großteil des Wachstums, zugleich drohen Rechtsrisiken: Die Grünen prüfen Verfassungsbeschwerden gegen Haushalt und Mittelverwendung. Unternehmen müssen mit Verzögerungen bei Infrastruktur- und Klimaprojekten, Förderunsicherheit sowie wechselnden Steuer- und Ausgabenprioritäten rechnen.

Treasury market liquidity drains

Large Treasury settlements and heavy auction calendars can pull cash onto dealer balance sheets, reducing liquidity elsewhere. Tightened repo and margin dynamics raise volatility across risk assets, complicate collateral management, and increase the chance of disruptive funding squeezes for corporates.

Gasversorgungssorgen treiben Wärmewende-Tempo

Sehr niedrige Gasspeicherstände (unter 30%) erhöhen Preis- und Versorgungsschwankungen für gasbasierte Wärme, insbesondere im Süden. Das beschleunigt Umstiegsentscheidungen zu Wärmepumpen und Fernwärme, verändert Beschaffungsstrategien und erhöht Hedging-, Vertrags- und Kreditrisiken entlang der Lieferkette.

Renewed US tariff escalation risk

Washington signals possible reversion to 25% tariffs, tying relief to South Korea’s $350bn US-investment pledge and progress on “non‑tariff barriers.” Uncertainty raises landed costs and disrupts pricing, contract terms, and US-facing automotive, pharma, and biotech supply chains.

Governance, anti-corruption compliance drive

Pakistan’s new governance plan targets high-risk agencies, procurement rules, AML strengthening and asset disclosures under IMF scrutiny. Improved enforcement may reduce long-term corruption risk, but near-term increases in audits, documentation and dispute resolution timelines raise operating friction.

Energy security via long LNG

Japan is locking in long-duration LNG supply, including a 27-year JERA–QatarEnergy deal for ~3 Mtpa from 2028 and potential Japanese equity in Qatar’s North Field South. This supports power reliability for data centers/semiconductors but reduces fuel flexibility via destination clauses.

Высокий риск реинвестиций и выхода

Российские власти сигнализируют, что возвращение иностранцев будет избирательным: «ниши заняты», условия различат «корректный» и «некорректный» уход. Это повышает риски репатриации прибыли, правоприменения и предсказуемости правил для инвестиций и M&A.

Strategic U.S. investment mandate

Seoul is fast‑tracking a special act to operationalize a $350bn U.S. investment pledge, including a state-run investment vehicle. Capital allocation, project selection (including energy), and conditionality will influence Korean corporates’ balance sheets and partner opportunities for foreign suppliers.

Energy diversification and LNG buildout

Turkey is expanding LNG and regasification capacity, planning additional FSRU projects and targeting ~200 million m³/day intake within two years. Long-term LNG contracting (including U.S.-sourced volumes) can improve supply security, but price volatility and infrastructure bottlenecks remain.

Power-demand surge from AI buildout

Rising electricity demand from data centers and semiconductor fabs is explicitly cited in LNG procurement plans. This increases exposure to grid constraints, permitting timelines, and power-price volatility, influencing site selection, capex schedules, and long-term PPAs for foreign investors.

Tightening export controls and investment screening

Taiwan–U.S. cooperation is moving toward stricter export controls on critical technologies and stronger investment review, including preventing origin ‘laundering.’ Multinationals face higher due-diligence burdens, end-user/end-use verification, and potential restrictions on China-linked counterparties in sensitive sectors.

Macroeconomic instability and FX collapse

The rial’s sharp depreciation and near-50% inflation erode purchasing power and raise operating costs. Importers face hard-currency scarcity, price controls, and ad hoc subsidies, complicating budgeting, wage management, and inventory planning for firms with local exposure or suppliers.

Concessões e PPPs de infraestrutura

O leilão do Aeroporto do Galeão (mínimo de R$ 932 milhões; outorga variável de 20% da receita bruta até 2039) sinaliza continuidade da agenda de concessões, criando oportunidades para operadores e fundos. Porém, reequilíbrios contratuais e intervenção regulatória seguem no radar.

Housing constraints and construction bottlenecks

Housing supply remains below the ~240,000 annual starts needed for the 1.2m homes target, with commencements around ~184,460 in the year to Sep-2025. Planning delays, workforce shortages, and compliance costs slow projects, impacting labour availability, facility location decisions and operating costs in major cities.

Reconstruction and infrastructure pipeline

Ongoing post-earthquake rebuilding and associated infrastructure upgrades continue to generate procurement and contracting opportunities across construction materials, logistics, and utilities. However, project execution risk remains tied to municipal permitting, cost inflation, and financing conditions under tight policy.

Tech investment sentiment and resilience

Israel’s innovation ecosystem remains a core investment draw, but conflict-linked volatility and talent constraints influence funding conditions and valuations. Companies should stress-test R&D continuity, cyber risk, and cross-border collaboration, while watching for policy incentives supporting strategic sectors.

Industrial decarbonisation subsidy wave

Paris is deploying large-scale state aid to keep energy‑intensive industry in France: €1.6bn over 15 years for seven sites, targeting ~3.8 Mt CO2/year abatement (~1% of national emissions). Subsidy conditionality and EU state‑aid scrutiny affect project bankability.

Reforma tributária em transição

A migração para IVA dual (CBS/IBS) cria riscos de implementação, cumulatividade temporária e disputas de créditos, especialmente em cadeias longas e operações interestaduais. Multinacionais devem reavaliar preços, contratos, sistemas fiscais e estruturas de importação/distribuição para evitar custos e autuações.