Regulação de dados e compliance LGPD

A Câmara aprovou MP que transforma a ANPD em agência reguladora, com carreira própria e maior capacidade de fiscalização. Isso tende a elevar enforcement, custos de conformidade e exigências contratuais, especialmente em cadeias com compartilhamento internacional de dados.

Yen volatility and intervention risk

Post-election fiscal expansion, rising JGB yields and BoJ normalization keep USD/JPY near 160, with officials signaling readiness to intervene. FX swings can whipsaw importer margins, repatriation flows and hedging costs, affecting pricing, procurement and investment timing.

Strategic stockpiles and resilience push

Japan’s government and industry continue building resilience via stockpiling, diversification, and domestic capability in materials and energy, accelerated by global geo-economic fragmentation. Businesses should anticipate subsidies tied to reshoring, stricter supply-chain transparency, and contingency planning expectations.

China trade deal and market pivot

China is offering selected duty-free access and investment/technology-transfer commitments, reinforcing China as a top trade partner. This can boost minerals, agriculture and components exports, but may deepen dependency, invite Western scrutiny, and intensify local industry competition.

Health-tech export platform for simulation

Finland’s health-technology exports exceed €2.5bn with a stated ambition toward €3bn this decade, underpinned by strong digital health infrastructure. This creates a pull for VR training and clinical simulation solutions, but requires rigorous clinical validation and procurement navigation.

Energy transition and critical minerals

India targets rare-earth corridors and a ₹7,280 crore permanent-magnets incentive, reflecting urgency after China export curbs. Renewable capacity reached ~254 GW (49.83% of installed) by Nov 2025, boosting investment in grids, storage, and clean-tech supply chains.

Sanctions compliance and Russia payments

Sanctions-related banking frictions persist: Russia and Turkey are preparing new consultations to resolve payment problems. International firms face heightened counterparty and routing risk, longer settlement times, and stricter AML screening when Turkey-linked trade intersects with Russia exposure.

Investment screening and national security

U.S. inbound (CFIUS) and outbound investment scrutiny is increasingly tied to economic security, especially for China-linked capital, data, and dual-use tech. Deal timelines, mitigation terms, and ownership structures are becoming decisive for cross-border M&A, JV approvals, and financing certainty.

Финансы, платежи и валютная волатильность

Ограничения на банки и альтернативные платёжные каналы усиливаются; регулятор удерживает жёсткие условия: ключевая ставка снижена до 15,5% (с сигналом дальнейших шагов), что отражает высокую инфляционную неопределённость. Для бизнеса растут FX‑риски и стоимость капитала.

Labour market cooling and wage dynamics

Payrolled employment is softening and unemployment has climbed to 5.2%, while private‑sector regular pay growth eased to about 3.4% and public‑sector pay remains higher. For employers, this reshapes recruitment, retention, and automation decisions; for services firms, wage pass‑through and demand remain volatile.

Industrial relations and project risk

Rising union activity and expanded workplace rights are increasing operational complexity, notably in WA mining where right-of-entry requests rose ~400% in 12 months. Alongside corruption probes in construction unions, investors should price in schedule risk, bargaining costs, and governance diligence.

PIF strategy reset and PPPs

The Public Investment Fund is revising its 2026–2030 strategy and Saudi launched a privatization push targeting 220+ PPP contracts by 2030 and ~$64bn capex. Creates bankable infrastructure deals, but raises tender competitiveness, localization requirements, and governance diligence needs.

Governance, anti-corruption compliance drive

Pakistan’s new governance plan targets high-risk agencies, procurement rules, AML strengthening and asset disclosures under IMF scrutiny. Improved enforcement may reduce long-term corruption risk, but near-term increases in audits, documentation and dispute resolution timelines raise operating friction.

Dependência de China em commodities

A China ampliou compras de soja brasileira por vantagem de preço e incertezas tarifárias EUA–China. Essa concentração sustenta exportações, mas aumenta exposição a mudanças regulatórias chinesas, logística portuária e eventos climáticos, afetando contratos de longo prazo.

Banking hidden risks and real-estate spillovers

Banks’ loan guarantees rose 19% to VND 52 trillion in the first nine months, outpacing equity growth and increasing off-balance-sheet exposure (e.g., SBLCs). Thin capital buffers heighten systemic risk; credit tightening could hit construction, suppliers and consumer demand.

Telecom spectrum and 5G economics

Pelelangan spektrum 700 MHz dan 2,6 GHz pada 2026 ditujukan mempercepat 5G; regulator cost di Indonesia ~12,2% pendapatan operator (vs rata-rata ASEAN 8%). Target cakupan 5G 8,5% luas permukiman 2026, sementara 4G ~99% populasi. Biaya spektrum mempengaruhi rollout, IoT industri, dan kualitas layanan.

Energy import diversification to US

Pertamina menandatangani MoU pasokan light crude dan kontrak LPG 2026 dengan Hartree dan Phillips 66, total LPG sekitar 2,2 juta metrik ton. Bersama komitmen ART membeli energi AS, ini menggeser pola impor dari pemasok tradisional, berdampak pada harga, logistik, dan peluang trading/penyimpanan regional.

Ports and logistics hub acceleration

Saudi ports are expanding capacity and private participation to capture transshipment and east–west trade. January throughput reached 738,111 TEUs (+2% YoY) with transshipment +22%. Deals include APM Terminals buying 37.5% of Jeddah’s 4.1m TEU South Container Terminal, plus new logistics centers.

Tariff regime and legal uncertainty

Trump-era broad tariffs face Supreme Court and congressional challenges, creating volatile landed costs and contract risk. Average tariffs rose from 2.6% to 13% in 2025; potential refunds could exceed $130B, complicating pricing, sourcing, and inventory strategies.

Gasversorgungssorgen treiben Wärmewende-Tempo

Sehr niedrige Gasspeicherstände (unter 30%) erhöhen Preis- und Versorgungsschwankungen für gasbasierte Wärme, insbesondere im Süden. Das beschleunigt Umstiegsentscheidungen zu Wärmepumpen und Fernwärme, verändert Beschaffungsstrategien und erhöht Hedging-, Vertrags- und Kreditrisiken entlang der Lieferkette.

Gaza spillovers and border constraints

Rafah crossing reopening remains tightly controlled, with limited throughput and heightened security frictions. Ongoing regional instability elevates political and security risk, disrupts overland logistics to Levant markets, and can trigger compliance and duty-of-care requirements for firms.

Logistics disruption and labor risk

Rail and potential port labor disruptions remain a recurrent risk, with spillovers into U.S.-bound flows. For exporters of bulk commodities and importers of containerized goods, stoppages elevate inventory buffers, demurrage, and rerouting costs, stressing time-sensitive supply chains.

Supply-chain bloc formation pressures

US-led efforts to build critical-minerals “preferential zones” with reference prices and tariffs signal broader de-risking blocs. Companies may face bifurcated supply chains, dual standards, and requalification of suppliers as trade rules diverge between China-centric and allied networks.

Dollar hedging costs surge

Foreign investors are increasing USD hedge ratios, amplifying dollar swings even without mass Treasury selling. Higher FX-hedging costs reshape portfolio allocation, pricing of long-term supply contracts, and can reduce inward investment appetite while raising working-capital volatility for importers.

Organised crime and infrastructure security

Government plans to deploy the army to support police against organised crime in Gauteng and Western Cape. Persistent vandalism and cable theft raise logistics and utilities downtime, elevate insurance and security costs, and can deter private participation in rail and grid projects.

Coal output controls, export risk

Jakarta is signaling coal production limits for 2026 (proposal: 600m tons vs 790m in 2025), though top miners may be exempt. Annual RKAB approvals create uncertainty, thinning spot liquidity and complicating long-term export contracts for Asia’s import-dependent buyers.

EU customs union modernization push

Turkey and the EU agreed to keep working toward modernizing the 1995 customs union, while business groups press for progress and visa facilitation. Potential updates could broaden sector coverage and ease frictions, materially benefiting manufacturers, logistics, and EU-facing investment cases.

Foreign investment scrutiny and CFIUS

Elevated national-security screening of foreign acquisitions and sensitive real-estate/technology deals increases transaction timelines and remedies risk. Cross-border investors should expect greater diligence, mitigation agreements, and sectoral red lines in semiconductors, data, defense-adjacent manufacturing, and critical infrastructure.

Rupee volatility and policy trilemma

The RBI balances growth-supportive rates with capital flows and currency stability amid heavy government borrowing (gross ~₹17.2 lakh crore planned for FY27). A gradually weaker rupee may aid exporters but raises import costs and FX-hedging needs for firms with dollar inputs or debt.

Enerji arzı çeşitlenmesi ve LNG

Türkiye’nin LNG alımları artıyor; uzun vadeli kontratlar ve FSRU kapasitesi genişlemesi gündemde. Bu, enerji yoğun sektörlerde maliyet öngörülebilirliğini artırabilir; ancak gaz fiyatlarına ve jeopolitik risklere duyarlılık sürer. Sanayi yatırımlarında enerji tedarik sözleşmeleri kritikleşiyor.

Electricity grid reform uncertainty

Eskom’s revised unbundling keeps transmission assets inside Eskom, limiting the new TSO’s ability to raise capital for urgent grid expansion. Business warns this policy “U-turn” could prolong grid constraints, delay renewables connections, and revive supply insecurity for operations.

Ciclo de juros e crédito caro

Com a Selic em 15% e possível início de cortes em março, decisões seguem dependentes de inflação e câmbio. A combinação de juros altos e mercado de trabalho firme afeta financiamento, valuation e demanda, pressionando setores intensivos em capital e importadores.

Tariff Volatility and Litigation Risk

On‑again, off‑again tariff actions and court challenges are driving demand swings and front‑loading. Forecasts show US container imports down 2% YoY in H1 2026, with March -12% and April -7.1%, complicating pricing, contracts, and inventory planning.

SOE liabilities and privatization pipeline

State-owned enterprises remain a major fiscal drag: SOE support reached about Rs2.079tr in FY25, while power-sector unfunded liabilities exceeded Rs2tr and circular debt neared Rs1.9tr. Privatization and restructuring create openings, but execution, labor resistance and tariff politics drive deal risk.

Energy exports shifting to gas

Aramco’s $100bn Jafurah unconventional gas project has begun condensate exports (4–6 cargoes/month, ~500k barrels each), aiming for 2 Bcf/d gas by 2030. Gas-for-power could free ~1 mb/d crude for export, reshaping feedstock costs and regional supply balances.

EU-China EV trade rebalancing

EU’s new ‘price undertaking’ mechanism is reshaping China-made EV flows: VW’s Cupra Tavascan won a tariff waiver by accepting minimum pricing, quotas and EU battery-investment commitments. This creates a template for others, altering sourcing, margins and trade friction.