Fiscal consolidation and VAT politics

Treasury is stabilising debt near 79% of GDP while avoiding major tax hikes after a contentious VAT episode. Predictability supports investment, yet revenue gaps increase pressure for stronger enforcement, fuel/“sin” levies, and spending restraint that can affect consumer demand and public procurement.

Electricity market reform accelerates

Eskom unbundling and rollout of a wholesale power market (SAWEM) are advancing, with more private PPAs and wheeling. Improved reliability lowers operating risk, but tariff-setting, grid access, and regulatory capacity remain key uncertainties for investors.

LNG export expansion and price politics

DOE approved additional LNG export capacity (e.g., Cheniere Corpus Christi +0.47 Bcf/d; 4.45 Bcf/d authorized), while domestic lawmakers push to curb exports citing higher utility bills. Policy swings affect energy-intensive manufacturing costs, European/Asian supply security, and project financing timelines.

Fiscal deadlock and tax volatility

France’s 2026 budget passed via Article 49.3 after ~25,000 amendments, with a projected 5.4% GDP deficit. Corporate surtaxes and production-tax uncertainty raise planning risk for multinationals, affecting pricing, capex timing, and location decisions amid 2027 election volatility.

USMCA review and North America rules

USMCA exemptions shield much trade, but the agreement is under mandatory review and political pressure. Businesses should expect potential rule-of-origin tightening, sector carve-outs, and enforcement disputes, affecting auto, energy and agriculture supply chains across North America.

Kalkınma Yolu: Irak bağlantılı tedarik

Irak-Türkiye-Katar-BAE ortak Kalkınma Yolu, Büyük Fav Limanı’ndan Türkiye üzerinden Avrupa’ya kara/demir yolu taşımayı hedefliyor. Tamamlanma ve güvenlik riskleri sürse de, alternatif rota ve depolama/dağıtım yatırımlarına orta vadede ivme verebilir.

Financial-Sector Opening, Bank FDI

Government discussions may lift FDI cap in state-owned banks from 20% to 49% while retaining 51% public ownership. If adopted, it would widen strategic-entry options for global banks and PE, support capital raising, and reshape competition in India’s credit and payments markets.

Land bridge logistics megaproject

The government is advancing a 990 billion baht ‘land bridge’ under the Southern Economic Corridor to connect Gulf and Andaman ports via rail and motorway under a 50-year PPP. If legislation progresses, it could reshape regional shipping, warehousing, and industrial location strategies.

Critical minerals export licensing

China is expanding and enforcing export controls on dual-use and strategic materials, including rare-earth-related items and metals like gallium/germanium. New restrictions (including toward Japan) increase procurement uncertainty, lead times, and price volatility for electronics, aerospace, defense-adjacent, and clean-tech supply chains.

Trade diversification into Indo-Pacific

Ottawa is explicitly pursuing export-market diversification, with leadership travel and new strategic partnerships in Japan, India and Australia. This can open new demand for energy, technology and services, but requires investment in market entry, standards compliance, and geopolitical balancing.

Selic alta e crédito restrito

Com Selic em torno de 15% a.a., o custo financeiro pressiona consumo e investimento, reduz fôlego de empresas e encarece hedge cambial. A expectativa de cortes depende de inflação e credibilidade fiscal, afetando decisões de capex, estoques e financiamento de comércio exterior.

USMCA review and tariff risk

2026 USMCA/CUSMA review raises North American market-access uncertainty. Even with broad exemptions, U.S. Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, autos and other products persist, and Washington signals baseline tariffs. This pressures pricing, sourcing, and investment timing.

Anti-corruption tightening and compliance

A new Party resolution on anti-corruption and waste is set for adoption, emphasizing stronger deterrence, post-audit controls, and scrutiny of high-risk sectors. While improving integrity over time, short-term effects include slower approvals, higher documentation burdens, and elevated enforcement risk for partners and intermediaries.

Domestic unrest and instability

Economic stress has fueled widespread protests and heavy crackdowns, increasing operational disruption risks. Businesses face strikes, transport interruptions, internet restrictions, and security concerns. Political uncertainty also increases regulatory unpredictability, payment delays, and expropriation or forced-localization pressures.

IMF program and reform conditionality

IMF completion of Egypt’s fifth and sixth EFF reviews unlocks about $2.0bn plus $273m RSF, reinforcing policy discipline. However, uneven structural reforms and slow state-asset divestment create regulatory uncertainty affecting privatizations, procurement, and investor confidence.

Post-election coalition policy direction

A new multi-party coalition around Bhumjaithai is forming after February elections, reducing near-term political deadlock but reshaping ministerial priorities. Watch budget timing, industrial policy, and regulatory continuity, especially for infrastructure approvals and investment promotion decisions impacting FDI pipelines.

OPEC+ policy drives price volatility

Saudi-led OPEC+ decisions remain a primary driver of global energy prices and petrochemical feedstocks. Recent deliberations and an agreed ~206,000 bpd April hike amid Iran-related disruption highlight how quota shifts and spare-capacity limits can quickly reprice fuel, shipping, and input costs.

Baht strength and rate cuts

The baht strengthened below 31/USD amid gold and capital inflows; reserves reached about US$312bn. Markets expect the Bank of Thailand to cut rates toward 1.0%–1.25% as 2026 growth slows (~1.5%–2.5%). FX volatility affects margins, hedging, and tourism receipts.

Mining push and critical minerals

Saudi is positioning mining as a third economic pillar, citing an estimated $2.5 trillion resource base and new investment-law frameworks emphasizing ESG. Partnerships include rare-earth processing interest. This creates opportunities in exploration, processing, and industrial inputs, with permitting and ESG scrutiny rising.

Asset seizure and expropriation risk

Russia’s state-driven confiscations are expanding, with reported criminal-case confiscation rulings rising from 11,000 (2023) to 31,000 (2025). Combined with forced “nationalization” precedents, this materially elevates political risk for any remaining or re-entering foreign investors and JV partners.

Carbon border and emissions compliance

EU CBAM transition is moving toward payment obligations from 2026, raising embedded-carbon reporting and cost exposure for imports of steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizers and electricity into France. Suppliers must improve emissions data, audit trails and pricing clauses to protect margins.

EU gas exit and volatility

Despite continued EU purchases of Russian LNG in the billions of euros, Europe is moving toward a full ban on Russian pipeline gas and LNG by 2027. Firms should plan for abrupt contract and price shifts, infrastructure bottlenecks, and renewed competition for alternative LNG supply.

Internet shutdowns and cyber risk

Iran’s periodic internet restrictions and heightened cyber activity during crises disrupt communications, cloud access, payments, and remote operations. Firms reliant on digital workflows face downtime, data-security exposure, and continuity planning needs, including alternative connectivity and localization measures.

External financing and Gulf support

Egypt’s recovery remains tied to external funding—IMF disbursements and Gulf capital—while financing conditions can tighten quickly during risk-off episodes. Record reserves around $52.7bn provide buffers, yet large import bills and debt refinancing remain sensitive.

Water security and municipal service risk

Water shortages and weak municipal maintenance disrupt operations in major metros and industrial zones. National plans include >R156bn for water/sanitation and a new National Water Resources Infrastructure Agency from 2026, but near-term outages and leak losses persist.

Power-grid upgrades for EEC growth

Electricity transmission constraints in the Eastern Economic Corridor are being addressed through Egat’s 31bn baht upgrades, raising transfer capacity to 1,150MW from 600MW. With BOI projecting 16 new data centers needing ~3,600MW (2026–2030), grid readiness and clean-power access shape project timelines.

Red Sea security and Suez reliability

Shipping lines continue to oscillate between Trans-Suez and Cape routes as Red Sea risks persist, undermining schedule reliability. Even partial diversions materially affect Egypt’s foreign-currency earnings and global supply chains, raising freight costs, transit times, and insurance premiums.

Geoeconomic bloc politics with China

US-led ‘economic security’ clubs—especially critical minerals—pressure Australia to align with tariff-enabled frameworks while China remains its largest export market. Firms face higher policy volatility, potential retaliatory trade friction, and the need to diversify routes and customers.

China de-risking and market access

Germany’s China exposure remains high: 2025 bilateral trade totaled €251.8bn, while firms report rising intervention and unequal competition. De-risking efforts and tougher screening can reshape sourcing for critical inputs, force localisation choices, and raise geopolitical contingency planning costs.

Social protection and price interventions

Ahead of Ramadan, government cash transfers, early wage payments, and food imports (e.g., frozen chicken) aim to contain cost-of-living pressures. Such measures can reduce social risk and demand volatility, but complicate fiscal consolidation and subsidy reform efforts.

EU reliance on Russian LNG

EU ports absorbed essentially all Yamal LNG cargoes in early 2026 even as a 2027 ban is planned. This policy-market gap increases regulatory whiplash risk, complicates long-term contracting, and heightens scrutiny of European shipping and insurance participation.

EU sidelined in Iran strikes

U.S.–Israel operations proceeded with minimal advance consultation of EU leaders, exposing Europe’s limited leverage. Firms should expect policy volatility, fragmented EU positions, and faster U.S.-driven escalations that reshape risk assumptions for Middle East exposure and contracts.

Critical minerals onshoring and alliances

Australia is funding critical-minerals refining R&D ($53m public plus $185m partners) and deepening cooperation with Canada and G7 partners to reduce China dependence. This supports downstream processing investment, but highlights infrastructure, permitting, and cost-competitiveness constraints.

EU market access and EPA transition

Uganda and the EU are nearing an Economic Partnership Agreement: up to 80% of EU goods could enter duty-free over time while sensitive sectors stay protected. Exporters must prepare for stricter SPS, traceability and rules-of-origin as LDC benefits evolve.

Cross-border data rules under ART

ART RI–AS memperkuat arus data lintas batas; Indonesia diminta tidak membatasi penyimpanan/pemrosesan data (mis. asuransi) di luar negeri. Ini meningkatkan efisiensi cloud dan menarik investor digital, tetapi menambah risiko kepatuhan UU PDP, akses regulator, serta ketahanan operasional saat insiden siber/geopolitik.

US–Indonesia trade pact reset

The Reciprocal Trade Agreement expands market access but creates compliance and political risks: Indonesia promises fewer export restrictions to the US yet keeps raw-ore bans, while most US imports face 0% tariffs. Firms should anticipate regulatory follow-through and potential renegotiation pressures.