EU–Thailand FTA acceleration

Bangkok and Brussels aim to conclude an EU–Thailand FTA by mid-2026, promising tariff reduction and investment momentum, especially in S-curve industries. However, compliance demands on environment, product standards and regulatory alignment will raise costs for lagging manufacturers and SMEs.

China-De-Risking und Rohstoffabhängigkeiten

Die EU bleibt durch chinesische Exportkontrollen bei Seltenen Erden verwundbar (ca. 60% Förderung, 90% Verarbeitung). Deutschlands Unternehmen müssen Beschaffung diversifizieren, Lager aufbauen und Substitution beschleunigen. Gleichzeitig wächst politischer Druck, Handelsrisiken mit Investitionszugang und Marktchancen auszubalancieren.

إعادة تشكيل الحكومة وملفات الاستثمار

تعديل وزاري ركّز على الحقائب الاقتصادية واستحداث/فصل وزارات الاستثمار والتجارة الخارجية والتخطيط والصناعة. التغييرات قد تُسرّع تراخيص المشاريع وتحسين بيئة الأعمال، لكنها تخلق فترة انتقالية في السياسات والتنفيذ، ما يستدعي متابعة قرارات الرسوم، التراخيص، والحوافز القطاعية.

Dezenflasyon ve faiz patikası

TCMB 2026 enflasyonunu %15–21 aralığında öngörüyor, hedef %16; politika faizi %37 civarında ve kademeli indirim beklentisi sürüyor. Kur, talep ve kredi koşullarındaki oynaklık ithalat maliyetlerini, fiyatlamayı, yatırımın finansmanını ve sözleşme endekslemelerini etkiliyor.

Energy strategy pivots nuclear-led

The new 10‑year energy plan (PPE3) prioritizes nuclear with six EPR2 reactors (first by 2038) and aims existing fleet output around 380–420 TWh by 2030–2035. Lower wind/solar targets add policy risk for power‑purchase strategies and electrification investments.

Makroihtiyati kredi sıkılaştırması

BDDK ve TCMB, kredi kartı limitleri ile kredili mevduat hesaplarına büyüme sınırları getiriyor; yabancı para kredilerde limit %0,5’e indirildi. Şirketler için işletme sermayesi, tüketim talebi ve tahsilat riskleri değişebilir; tedarikçilere vade ve stok politikaları yeniden ayarlanmalı.

China EV import quota tensions

A new arrangement allows up to 49,000 Chinese-made EVs annually at low duties, while excluding them from new rebates. This creates competitive pressure on domestic producers and raises security, standards, and political-risk concerns—potentially triggering U.S. retaliation or additional screening measures.

Geopolitical alignment and sanctions exposure

Heightened US–South Africa tensions increase tail-risk of targeted financial measures. With roughly 20% of SA government debt held by foreigners, any restrictions could spike yields and weaken the rand, complicating trade finance, USD liquidity, and investment returns.

Data protection compliance tightening

Draft DPDP rules and proposed faster compliance timelines raise near-term operational and legal burdens, especially for multinationals and potential “Significant Data Fiduciaries.” Unclear thresholds and cross-border transfer mechanisms increase compliance risk, contract renegotiations, and potential localization-style costs.

Inflación persistente y tasas

Banxico pausó recortes y mantuvo la tasa en 7% tras 12 bajas, elevando pronósticos de inflación y retrasando convergencia al 3% hasta 2T‑2027. Enero marcó 3,79% anual y subyacente 4,52%, afectando costos laborales, demanda y financiamiento corporativo.

Balochistan militancy and corridor security

Repeated attacks in Balochistan target transport links and state assets, raising security costs for CPEC, mining and logistics around Gwadar. Heightened risk threatens project timelines, insurance premiums and staff safety, complicating due diligence for greenfield investment.

UK–EU border frictions endure

Post‑Brexit customs and SPS requirements, the Border Target Operating Model, and Northern Ireland arrangements continue to reshape UK–EU flows. Firms face documentation risk, delays, and higher logistics overheads, driving route diversification, inventory buffers, and reconfiguration of distribution hubs serving EU markets.

Fiscal stimulus vs debt sustainability

A proposed two-year suspension of the 8% food tax creates an estimated ~5 trillion yen annual revenue gap and intensifies scrutiny of financing options, including FX-reserve surpluses. Uncertainty can lift bond yields, tighten credit and reshape consumer demand outlooks.

Post-war security risk premium

Ceasefire conditions remain fragile and multi-front escalation risk persists (Gaza governance transition, northern border tensions, Yemen/Houthi threats). The resulting security risk premium affects insurance, travel, site selection, and contingency planning for multinationals operating in Israel.

FX Volatility and Capital Flows

The won remains prone to sharp moves amid foreign equity flows and shifting hedging behavior. Korea’s National Pension Service, with ~59.6% of AUM overseas and 0% FX hedge, may change strategy in 2026, potentially moving USD/KRW and altering pricing, repatriation and hedging costs.

Strategic U.S. investment mandate

Seoul is fast‑tracking a special act to operationalize a $350bn U.S. investment pledge, including a state-run investment vehicle. Capital allocation, project selection (including energy), and conditionality will influence Korean corporates’ balance sheets and partner opportunities for foreign suppliers.

Optics and photonics supply expansion

Nokia’s optical-network growth and new manufacturing investments support high-capacity connectivity crucial for cloud simulation and telepresence. This can reduce latency for cross-border services, yet photonics component bottlenecks and specialized materials sourcing remain supply-chain risks for integrators.

Shareholder activism and governance shifts

Japan’s record M&A cycle and activist pressure are reshaping capital allocation and control structures. Elliott opposed Toyota Industries’ take-private price, while Fuji Media launched a ¥235bn buyback to exit an activist stake. Deal risk, valuation scrutiny, and governance expectations are rising for investors.

Data protection and digital trade pressure

DPDP Act implementation and India–US digital trade commitments may reshape cross-border data transfers, localization expectations, and platform regulation. Multinationals should prepare governance, consent management, breach response, and contract updates amid evolving rules and enforcement.

Payment constraints and crypto workarounds

With banking restrictions persistent, Iran increasingly relies on alternative settlement channels including stablecoins and local exchanges, complicating compliance and AML controls. Firms face elevated fraud, convertibility, and repatriation risk, plus higher transaction costs and delayed settlement timelines.

BoJ normalization lifts funding costs

The Bank of Japan’s cautious tightening bias—policy rate lifted to 0.75% in December and markets pricing further hikes—raises borrowing costs and may reprice real estate and equities. Firms should revisit capex hurdle rates, refinancing timelines, and counterparty risk.

Electronics export surge reshapes supply chains

Electronics exports hit $22.2bn in the first half of FY26; mobile production rose nearly 30x from FY15 to FY25, making India the world’s second-largest phone manufacturer. Opportunities grow in EMS, components, tooling, and specialized logistics.

Energy mix permitting and local opposition

While no renewables moratorium is planned, the PPE points to slower onshore wind/solar and prioritizes repowering to reduce local conflicts. Permitting risk and community opposition can delay projects, affecting PPAs, factory decarbonization plans, and ESG delivery timelines.

High-risk Black Sea shipping

Merchant shipping faces drone attacks, sea mines, GNSS jamming/spoofing, and sudden port stoppages under ISPS Level 3. Operational disruption and claims exposure rise for hull, cargo, delay, and crew welfare, complicating charterparty clauses, safe-port warranties, and routing decisions.

Rupee flexibility and policy transmission

RBI reiterates it won’t defend a rupee level, intervening only against excessive volatility; rupee touched ~₹90/$ in Dec 2025. For importers/exporters, hedging discipline and INR cost pass-through matter as rates stay on hold and liquidity tools drive conditions.

LNG buildout and Asian markets

Canadian LNG export capacity is advancing through projects such as LNG Canada and Cedar LNG, with long-term supply contracts emerging. This supports upstream and midstream investment, but depends on regulatory certainty, Indigenous agreements, and global LNG pricing.

Data localization and cross-border transfers

Data security and personal information rules constrain cross-border data transfers, affecting cloud architectures, HR systems, and analytics. Multinationals may need China-specific data stacks, security assessments, and contractual controls, increasing IT spend while limiting global visibility and centralized operations.

Rule-of-law and governance uncertainty

Heightened tensions between government and judiciary raise concerns about institutional independence and regulatory predictability. For investors, this can affect contract enforceability perceptions, dispute resolution confidence, and ESG assessments, influencing cost of capital and FDI appetite.

Saudization and workforce constraints

Saudi Arabia is tightening localization rules, restricting expatriates from certain senior and commercial roles and raising Saudization ratios in sales/marketing. Multinationals must redesign org charts, compensation, and compliance processes, increasing operating costs and talent-transition risk.

Rising electricity cost exposure

A windless cold spell drove Finnish wholesale power prices sharply higher, intensifying scrutiny of energy-hungry data centres. For immersive tech operators, energy hedging, flexible workloads and heat-reuse options become key, affecting total cost of ownership and resilience planning.

Liquidity regime and Fed balance sheet

Debate over shrinking the Fed balance sheet versus maintaining ample reserves raises the probability of periodic money-market “jumps,” especially in repo and wholesale funding. Volatility tightens bank liquidity, raises hedging costs, and can propagate to global USD funding and trade finance.

Treasury demand and credibility strain

Reports of Chinese regulators urging banks to curb US Treasury buying, alongside elevated issuance, steepen the yield curve and raise term premia. Higher US rates lift global funding costs, hit EM dollar borrowers, and reprice project finance and M&A hurdles.

Réglementation agricole et contestation

Mobilisations contre la loi Duplomb et débats sur la réintroduction de pesticides (acéthamipride). Impacts: incertitude sur intrants, normes ESG et traçabilité, risques réputationnels, volatilité des coûts agroalimentaires et tensions sur accords commerciaux (ex. Mercosur).

Ports congestion and export delays

Transnet port performance remains among the world’s worst, with Cape Town fruit export backlogs reported around R1 billion amid wind stoppages, aging cranes, and staffing issues. Unreliable port throughput increases demurrage, spoils perishables, and disrupts contract delivery schedules.

Gas and LNG project constraints

New EU measures include bans on maintenance and services for LNG tankers and icebreakers, tightening pressure on Russian LNG export projects and Arctic logistics. This increases delivery uncertainty, reduces long‑term offtake reliability, and complicates energy‑intensive investments.

Accelerating LNG exports and permitting

The administration is fast-tracking U.S. energy production and LNG export approvals, reshaping global gas supply and contracting. Cheniere filed for a major Corpus Christi expansion to ~49 mtpa; U.S. LNG exports were ~111 mtpa in 2025, with ~100 mtpa more under construction for 2027–2030.