Outbound investment restrictions expand

Treasury’s outbound investment security program is hardening into a durable compliance regime for certain China-linked AI, quantum, and semiconductor investments. Multinationals should expect transaction screening, notification/recordkeeping duties, and chilling effects on cross-border venture and joint-development strategies.

Semiconductor and electronics scale-up

Budget 2026 doubles electronics component incentives to ₹40,000 crore and advances ISM 2.0 to deepen design, equipment, and materials capacity. This accelerates supplier localization and India-plus-one strategies, while raising competition for talent and requiring careful IP, export-control, and vendor qualification planning.

Banking hidden risks and real-estate spillovers

Banks’ loan guarantees rose 19% to VND 52 trillion in the first nine months, outpacing equity growth and increasing off-balance-sheet exposure (e.g., SBLCs). Thin capital buffers heighten systemic risk; credit tightening could hit construction, suppliers and consumer demand.

Rail recovery and open-access shift

Transnet reports improving rail volumes from a 149.5 Mt low (2022/23) toward 160.1 Mt (2024/25) and a 250 Mt target, alongside reforms enabling 11 private operators. Better rail reliability lowers inland logistics costs but transition risks remain during access-agreement rollout.

Riesgos de seguridad y continuidad

La violencia criminal y extorsión siguen siendo un riesgo estructural para operaciones, transporte y personal, especialmente en corredores industriales y logísticos. Incrementa costos de seguros, seguridad privada y cumplimiento, y puede provocar interrupciones de proveedores y rutas, afectando puntualidad exportadora.

EIB Lending Returns, Project Pipeline

The gradual resumption of European Investment Bank operations—reported with €200m earmarked for renewable energy—signals improving European financing access. This can catalyze infrastructure, green industrial upgrades and supplier capacity expansion, while raising compliance expectations on procurement, ESG and governance standards.

US Tariff Hikes Disrupt Trade

The recent increase of US tariffs on South Korean autos, lumber, and pharmaceuticals from 15% to 25% has reversed previous concessions and heightened trade tensions. This move threatens South Korea’s export competitiveness, especially in the auto sector, and may disrupt global supply chains.

IMF-linked reforms and fiscal tightening

Ongoing engagement with the IMF and multilaterals supports macro stabilization but implies subsidy reforms, tax enforcement, and constrained public spending. These measures affect consumer demand, project pipelines, and pricing. Investors should track review milestones that can unlock financing and market confidence.

Red Sea–Suez shipping volatility

Red Sea security disruptions continue to reroute vessels, weakening Suez Canal throughput and foreign-currency inflows. While recent data show partial recovery (FY2025/26 H1 revenues +18.5%), insurers, transit times, and freight rates remain unstable, affecting Egypt-linked logistics and pricing.

Workforce nationalisation and labour reforms

Saudi authorities are tightening Saudization in selected functions (e.g., sales/marketing mandates reported up to 60% for targeted roles) alongside broader labour-law amendments. Firms must redesign HR operating models, pay structures, and compliance controls to avoid penalties and operational disruption.

Rising Role in Regional Energy Supply

Indonesia is expanding its LNG and gas infrastructure, securing supply for power generation and industry. Projects like the FSRU Jawa Barat and new gas processing facilities support energy security, industrial growth, and regional supply chain resilience.

Tightening tech sanctions ecosystem

US and allied export controls and enforcement actions—illustrated by a $252m penalty over unlicensed shipments to SMIC—raise legal and operational risk for firms with China-facing semiconductor supply chains. Expect stricter end-use checks, routing scrutiny, and deal delays.

Financial conditions and liquidity volatility

Interbank rates spiked before easing (overnight near 8.5% after 17–17.5%), highlighting liquidity sensitivity and potential pass-through to loan/deposit costs. Off-balance-sheet guarantees are also growing. Foreign investors should stress-test funding, hedging, and counterparty risk for Vietnam operations.

Dezenflasyon ve lira oynaklığı

Ocak 2026 enflasyonu yıllık %30,65, aylık %4,84; konut %45,36 artışta. Dezenflasyon sürse de kur ve fiyat oynaklığı ücret, kira, girdi maliyetleri ve fiyatlama stratejilerinde belirsizlik yaratıyor; stok, kontrat ve hedge ihtiyacını artırıyor.

High-tech FDI and semiconductors

FDI remains resilient and shifts toward higher-value electronics and semiconductors, with 2025 registered FDI at US$38.42bn and realized US$27.62bn; early-2026 approvals exceed US$1bn in key northern provinces. This supports supply-chain diversification but increases competition for talent and sites.

Supply chain resilience and port logistics risk

Australia’s trade-dependent sectors remain sensitive to shipping availability, port capacity and industrial relations disruptions. Any bottlenecks can raise landed costs and inventory buffers, particularly for LNG, minerals and agribusiness. Firms are prioritising diversification, nearshoring and stronger contingency planning.

AB FTA’larının asimetrik etkisi

AB’nin üçüncü ülkelerle yaptığı STA’lar, Türkiye’nin Gümrük Birliği nedeniyle tarifeleri uyarlamasına rağmen karşı pazara aynı ayrıcalıkla erişememesi sorununu büyütüyor. Örneğin AB‑Hindistan STA’sı Türkiye lehine işlemiyor; rekabet baskısı ve pazar payı riski yaratıyor.

US–Taiwan reciprocal trade pact

A newly signed U.S.–Taiwan trade agreement caps U.S. tariffs at 15% and exempts 2,072 product categories, cutting average tariffs to ~12.33%. Taiwan will liberalize most U.S. imports and commit large purchases (e.g., US$44.4B LNG/crude) affecting sourcing strategies.

New trade deals and friend-shoring

US is using reciprocal trade agreements to rewire supply chains toward strategic partners. The US–Taiwan deal caps many tariffs at 15%, links chip treatment to US investment, and includes large procurement and investment pledges, influencing regional manufacturing footprints and sourcing decisions.

Cybersecurity enforcement and compliance

Regulators are escalating cyber-resilience expectations. A landmark ASIC case imposed A$2.5m penalties after a breach leaked ~385GB of client data affecting ~18,000 customers, signalling higher compliance burdens, greater board accountability, and heightened due diligence requirements for vendors handling sensitive data.

Investment Paralysis Hits Key Sectors

Russian investment growth stagnated in 2025, with transport, construction, and extractive industries most affected. Only military and import substitution sectors show resilience. Reduced state funding and asset depletion raise concerns for foreign investors and long-term business planning.

Maritime services ban on crude

Brussels proposes banning EU shipping, insurance, finance and port services for Russian crude at any price, moving beyond the G7 price cap. If adopted, logistics will shift further to higher‑risk shadow channels, raising freight, delays, and legal liability.

Palm waste export restrictions

President Prabowo announced a ban on exporting used cooking oil and palm waste to prioritize domestic aviation fuel and biofuel ambitions. The move may tighten regional feedstock availability, disrupt traders’ supply contracts, and increase regulatory risk in Indonesia’s palm-based derivative exports.

Electricity grid reform uncertainty

Eskom’s revised unbundling keeps transmission assets inside Eskom, limiting the new TSO’s ability to raise capital for urgent grid expansion. Business warns this policy “U-turn” could prolong grid constraints, delay renewables connections, and revive supply insecurity for operations.

Water scarcity and treaty pressures

Drought dynamics and cross-border water-delivery politics are resurfacing as an operational constraint for industrial hubs, especially in the north. Water availability now affects site selection, permitting, and ESG risk, pushing investment into recycling, treatment and alternative sourcing.

Weak growth and deindustrialisation

Germany’s economy remains stuck near 2019 output with private investment down ~11% since 2019 and unemployment above 3 million. Persistent cost, regulation and infrastructure constraints are pressuring manufacturing footprint decisions, supplier stability and demand forecasts.

Shareholder activism and governance shifts

Japan’s record M&A cycle and activist pressure are reshaping capital allocation and control structures. Elliott opposed Toyota Industries’ take-private price, while Fuji Media launched a ¥235bn buyback to exit an activist stake. Deal risk, valuation scrutiny, and governance expectations are rising for investors.

Export Competitiveness Through Institutional Reform

Budget 2026 prioritizes regulatory streamlining, customs modernization, and logistics upgrades to boost export competitiveness. Institutional reforms now outweigh tariff cuts, lowering policy risk and enabling Indian exporters to navigate global supply chain disruptions more effectively.

Technology Decoupling and Domestic Substitution

US-led export controls on semiconductors and AI technology have prompted China to restrict foreign tech imports and accelerate domestic innovation. Chinese firms are increasingly substituting domestic components, impacting global technology supply chains and market access for foreign firms.

Infrastructure Investment and Development Hubs

A historic infrastructure plan allocates 5.6 trillion pesos to energy, transport, health, and education projects through 2030. The strategy seeks to boost growth, regional development, and social equity, with mixed public-private models and streamlined regulatory frameworks.

ESG Regulation and Compliance Shift

Brazil is implementing robust ESG regulations, including mandatory sustainability reporting by 2026 and credit restrictions for companies linked to illegal deforestation. These measures are reshaping corporate governance, access to finance, and export eligibility, especially for land-intensive sectors.

Semiconductor tariffs and reshoring push

A new 25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors, alongside ongoing incentives for domestic capacity, is reshaping electronics and AI hardware economics. Firms face higher input costs near-term, while medium-term investment flows shift toward U.S. fabs amid persistent dependence on foreign suppliers.

Escalating secondary sanctions pressure

The US is tightening “maximum pressure” through new designations on Iran’s oil/petrochemical networks and vessels, plus threats of blanket tariffs on countries trading with Tehran. This raises compliance, banking, and counterparty risks for global firms and intermediaries.

Fiscal slippage raises funding costs

Breaches of the 2025 spending cap and widening deficits are pushing gross debt higher (about 78.7% of GDP) and inflating “restos a pagar” (R$391.5bn). Markets may demand higher risk premia, increasing hedging, financing and project-delivery risk.

EV incentives and industrial policy resets

Les dispositifs de soutien aux véhicules électriques se reconfigurent: fin du leasing social après 50 000 véhicules, ajustements de bonus et débats fiscaux (malus masse EV lourd supprimé). Cela crée volatilité de la demande, impacts sur chaînes auto, batteries, réseau et occasion.

Fiscal pressure and project sequencing

Lower oil prices and reduced Aramco distributions are tightening fiscal space, raising the likelihood of project delays, re-scoping and more PPP-style financing. International contractors and suppliers should plan for slower award cycles, tougher payment terms, and higher counterparty diligence.