Large FTAs expand market access

India is advancing major FTAs, including a concluded EU–India deal that could remove pharma tariffs (2–11%) and cut medical-device duties (up to 27.5%) to zero. This improves regulated-market access, supports longer supply agreements, and raises compliance demands.

Nova reforma tributária do consumo

A transição para CBS e IBS entra em fase operacional em 2026, exigindo mudanças em faturamento, apuração e sistemas ERP, mesmo antes da vigência plena. A incerteza de regras infralegais e créditos pode afetar precificação, estrutura de cadeias e decisões de localização e investimentos.

Crypto and alternative payments expansion

Russia is scaling crypto for cross‑border settlement, with officials citing roughly 50 billion rubles ($647m) in daily transactions and possible ruble‑stablecoin studies. The EU is moving toward broader crypto transaction bans, raising compliance uncertainty for fintechs and commodity traders.

Black Sea export corridor risk

Russia’s intensified missile and drone strikes on ports keep the Odesa maritime corridor operational but fragile, raising insurance and freight costs and causing volatile volumes. Disruption would hit grain, metals and containerized trade, widening delivery lead times.

Reforma tributária em implementação

O novo IVA dual (IBS/CBS) avança com portal único, apuração paralela e pilotos (134 empresas), além de split payment e documento unificado de arrecadação. A transição muda preços relativos, compliance e fluxo de caixa; ERPs, contratos e cadeia de fornecedores precisam adaptação antecipada.

Legislative approval and policy uncertainty

Key cross-border economic initiatives, including the ART and related investment MOU, still require Legislative Yuan review, creating timing and implementation uncertainty. Companies should monitor ratification risk, possible carve-outs, and changes to standards/labeling rules that affect market access and compliance.

Regional proxy conflict hits shipping

Iran-aligned militias and proxy dynamics around the Red Sea and Gulf raise marine risk and insurance premiums, incentivizing rerouting and longer lead times. Businesses reliant on Suez/Bab el‑Mandeb lanes should plan for persistent volatility, capacity tightness, and higher landed costs.

Energy exports and regional dependency

Eastern Mediterranean gas production and exports underpin power supply and industrial costs; Israel-to-Egypt flows are reported at full pipeline capacity. Yet infrastructure remains exposed to regional security shocks, and counterparties’ payment/contract renegotiation risks can spill over into supply.

Política comercial e tarifas de importação

Medidas para reforçar arrecadação e indústria local, como aumento de Imposto de Importação sobre bens de capital e TI/telecom, podem elevar custos de projetos, automação e tecnologia, pressionando margens. Para exportadores, volatilidade tarifária externa aumenta risco de demanda.

Logistics PPP pipeline accelerates

The Ministry of Investment is marketing 45 transport and logistics opportunities, including PPP greenfield airports, truck stops, rail/metro facilities management, feeder shipping to East Africa, and air-cargo trucking networks. This expands market entry points for operators, financiers and suppliers, while raising competition and due-diligence needs.

Fiscal Rules and Investment Execution

Debate over Germany’s debt brake and stimulus delivery creates uncertainty for contractors and investors. A €500bn off-budget infrastructure fund and sharply higher defense budgets may boost demand, but political resistance and execution shortfalls can delay projects, permitting, and procurement pipelines.

Monetary easing and credit conditions

The central bank cut rates by 100 bps (deposit 19%, lending 20%) and lowered reserve requirements to 16%, aiming to support growth as inflation moderates. Funding costs may ease, yet FX sensitivity and administered-price reforms can still affect financing and demand forecasts.

Persistent sectoral national-security tariffs

Section 232 duties on steel, aluminium, autos and other products remain outside the IEEPA ruling, sustaining cost pressure for manufacturers and construction. With Section 301 investigations signaled as the next durable tool, firms should expect continued targeted tariff escalation and exemptions management.

Automotive Transition and Competition

German automakers confront a costly EV transition while Chinese brands rapidly gain share in Europe; car exports to China fell about 33% in 2025 and job cuts continue. Suppliers face margin pressure, relocation risks, and retooling capex needs.

Energy grid disruption risk

Sustained Russian missile and drone strikes are fragmenting Ukraine’s power grid, causing recurring blackouts and forcing industry onto costly imports and generators. Volatile electricity supply disrupts manufacturing, cold-chain logistics, and raises downtime, insurance, and force-majeure risk.

FDI ivmesi ve yatırım teşvikleri

2025’te DYY %12,2 artarak 13,1 milyar $ oldu; en büyük pay toptan-perakende %32, imalat %31, bilgi-iletişim %14. HIT-30 ve teşvik güncellemeleri, 5G yetkilendirmeleri ve sanayi alanı ilanları yatırım çekiyor; ancak finansman maliyeti ve politika algısı seçiciliği artırıyor.

Investor confidence, market governance risks

Kekhawatiran atas arah kebijakan era Prabowo—termasuk peran Danantara, potensi akuisisi aset, dan isu independensi bank sentral—memicu volatilitas pasar, peringatan MSCI, serta outlook Moody’s negatif. Perusahaan multinasional perlu menilai risiko pembiayaan, valuasi aset, serta perubahan aturan free-float dan transparansi pasar.

Energy subsidy and LPG distribution reform

Government plans tighter subsidized LPG 3kg controls: KTP-linked purchases, welfare ‘decile’ targeting, a single-price concept, and a new sub-distributor tier, with pilots before rollout. This affects FMCG demand, retail logistics, inflation dynamics, and operational planning for distributors.

China trade controls and escalation

Washington is preparing fresh Section 301 investigations into Chinese strategic sectors (EV batteries, rare earths, advanced AI chips) alongside existing high China tariff ranges and technology restrictions. Expect renewed compliance burdens, supplier diversification, and heightened disruption risk for electronics, energy transition, and defense-adjacent supply chains.

Vision 2030 spending recalibration

PIF is resetting its 2026–2030 strategy toward industry, minerals, AI and tourism while re-scoping mega-projects like NEOM’s The Line amid fiscal pressure from lower oil prices. Investors should expect shifting procurement pipelines, timelines and counterparties across giga-project supply chains.

EU Trade-Defense and EV Tariffs

EU trade defenses are tightening, but with flexibility: Volkswagen’s China-built Cupra Tavascan received a tariff exemption via minimum import price and quota, avoiding a 20.7% duty. Firms must plan for contingent duties, undertakings, and potential retaliation affecting cross-border EV supply chains.

Ports and maritime security exposure

Strategic gateways such as Haifa face heightened missile/drone risk and operational contingency measures. Even when terminals remain open, security protocols, rerouting, and insurer requirements can slow throughput, complicate just‑in‑time inventory, and raise demurrage and storage costs.

Sovereign funding needs and debt rollover

High public debt and elevated gross financing needs constrain fiscal space, a risk highlighted by the IMF. Reliance on T-bills, official inflows, and asset sales keeps refinancing conditions central for contractors, PPPs, and suppliers exposed to payment delays.

Ports, rail and labor disruption risk

Labor negotiations and periodic disruption risks at major ports and freight nodes threaten schedule reliability and inventory buffers. Companies reliant on just-in-time flows should diversify gateways, contract for surge capacity, and reassess nearshoring versus ocean/air modal mixes.

Local content rules remain decisive

TKDN requirements continue for government procurement, with a 40% minimum (TKDN+BMP) under industry rules, despite trade‑deal debate. Multinationals in telecom, electronics, and infrastructure must localize sourcing, assembly, or partnerships to qualify for projects.

China–US strategic competition spillovers

Indonesia’s nickel dominance (>60% of global mine supply) is now central to US–China rivalry. US access initiatives and Indonesia’s tightening control could prompt China to adjust investment/technology transfers. Multinationals should stress-test supply chains for retaliation and geopolitical compliance risk.

UK–EU border friction persists

Post-Brexit trade remains burdened by customs/SPS checks and ongoing regulatory divergence. Businesses report costly documentation and shifting procedures; agri-food and pharma face particular compliance complexity. This raises lead times, inventory needs and the value of EU-based distribution footprints.

AB Gümrük Birliği güncellemesi

İş dünyası, Türkiye–AB Gümrük Birliği’nin modernizasyonu ve vize kolaylığı çağrısını artırıyor. AB’nin üçüncü ülkelerle STA’ları (ör. Hindistan, MERCOSUR) Türkiye’de ticaret sapması ve rekabet baskısı yaratıyor; tedarik zinciri konumlandırmayı etkiliyor.

Tourism and visa liberalization

Expanded 60-day visa exemptions for 93 countries, new Destination Thailand Visa options, and broader e-visa/digital arrival processes aim to boost arrivals and service-sector revenues. Benefits include demand for hospitality and retail, but authorities are tightening misuse controls that may affect hiring and operations.

Foreign access to government tenders

Riyadh reversed its 2024 regional-headquarters restriction for public contracts, allowing agencies to award projects to foreign firms without a Saudi RHQ via Etimad exceptions. This widens addressable government demand but adds procedural controls, pricing thresholds and compliance documentation for bidders.

Nickel quota cuts, supply risk

Indonesia cut 2026 nickel RKAB to ~250–270Mt from 379Mt (2025), aiming to lift prices. Smelters may face ore shortages; imports from the Philippines could rise toward ~30Mt. Supply uncertainty affects stainless steel, battery materials, and long-term contracts.

Russia sanctions and compliance expansion

Australia issued its largest Russia sanctions package since 2022, targeting 180 individuals/entities, shadow-fleet vessels, and—newly—crypto facilitators. Multinationals must tighten screening, shipping due diligence, and payment controls, especially in energy, maritime logistics, and fintech.

US–Taiwan reciprocal trade deal

The new U.S.–Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade locks a 15% U.S. tariff on Taiwanese goods while Taiwan cuts most U.S. import tariffs and tackles non‑tariff barriers. It reshapes sourcing, compliance, pricing, and investment decisions across agriculture, autos, pharma, and advanced manufacturing.

FDI screening recalibration risk

India is reviewing Press Note 3 on FDI from bordering countries, potentially adding a de minimis threshold for small-ticket investments while keeping national-security screening intact. This could ease funding flows yet maintain uncertainty for China-linked capital structures.

Migrant labor renewals, shortages persist

Thailand extended work-permit renewals for Lao, Myanmar, and Vietnamese workers to March 31, 2026; ~375,038 of 890,786 cases remain unresolved. Fisheries also updated Seabook renewals to avert crew shortages. Compliance bottlenecks and border issues with Cambodia can still disrupt labor-intensive sectors.

TL oynaklığı ve sermaye akımları

IMF, 2025 Mart stresinde yabancıların yaklaşık 18 milyar $ TL varlığı sattığını, net rezervlerin 56,9 milyar $’dan 29,1 milyar $’a indiğini belirtti. Geçici piyasa kısıtları görülebilir. Hedging, nakit yönetimi ve ithalat/İhracat fiyatlaması kritik.