EIB Lending Returns, Project Pipeline

The gradual resumption of European Investment Bank operations—reported with €200m earmarked for renewable energy—signals improving European financing access. This can catalyze infrastructure, green industrial upgrades and supplier capacity expansion, while raising compliance expectations on procurement, ESG and governance standards.

US–India tariff reset framework

A pending interim deal cuts US tariffs on many Indian goods to 18% (from 50%), while India pledges ~$500bn US purchases over five years. Expect sourcing shifts toward India, but watch execution risk, rules-of-origin, and sector carve‑outs.

Balancing China ties under U.S. scrutiny

Mexico raised tariffs up to 50% on some Asian imports while China seeks deeper supply-chain ties; Chinese automakers are bidding for Mexican plants. Companies face heightened origin and transshipment scrutiny, potential investment screening pressures, and reputational/political risk in North America.

Ports and rail recovery, still fragile

Transnet reports improving port performance and rail volumes rising toward ~168Mt by March 2026, with private operators gaining route access and Durban Pier 2 run privately. However, general freight corridors lag, bottlenecks persist, and service reliability remains a supply-chain constraint.

China tech export controls tighten

Stricter licensing and enforcement are reshaping semiconductor and AI supply chains. Nvidia’s H200 China sales face detailed KYC/end-use monitoring, while Applied Materials paid a $252M penalty over SMIC-related exports, elevating compliance costs, deal timelines, and diversion risk.

FX Volatility and Capital Flows

The won remains prone to sharp moves amid foreign equity flows and shifting hedging behavior. Korea’s National Pension Service, with ~59.6% of AUM overseas and 0% FX hedge, may change strategy in 2026, potentially moving USD/KRW and altering pricing, repatriation and hedging costs.

Makroihtiyati kredi sıkılaştırması

BDDK ve TCMB, kredi kartı limitleri ile kredili mevduat hesaplarına büyüme sınırları getiriyor; yabancı para kredilerde limit %0,5’e indirildi. Şirketler için işletme sermayesi, tüketim talebi ve tahsilat riskleri değişebilir; tedarikçilere vade ve stok politikaları yeniden ayarlanmalı.

Manufacturing competitiveness under cost pressure

CBI surveys show manufacturing output falling (balance -14) and order books weak (-28), with export orders down and price expectations elevated (+26). High energy costs and volatile trade conditions are constraining investment, reshoring decisions and supplier stability across industrial value chains.

Sanctions enforcement tightening and incentives

OFSI is reforming enforcement with a case‑assessment matrix, public penalties, and higher potential maxima (proposed £2m or 100% of breach value). Discounts up to 30% for voluntary disclosure/cooperation and cumulative reductions encourage faster reporting, raising compliance burdens for banks and traders.

Carbon pricing policy uncertainty

Debate over reforming or suspending the EU ETS triggered a price drop to ~€71/tonne, increasing uncertainty for low‑carbon investment cases. Industrial and power players face shifting hedging strategies, capex deferrals, and potential repricing of CBAM-exposed product margins.

Customs reforms and tariff reclassification

Budget 2026 adds 44 new tariff lines and advances trust-based customs measures (longer AEO deferrals, longer advance rulings). This improves import monitoring and classification precision, affecting landed-cost modeling, product coding, and audit readiness for traders.

Dezenflasyon ve faiz patikası

TCMB 2026 enflasyonunu %15–21 aralığında öngörüyor, hedef %16; politika faizi %37 civarında ve kademeli indirim beklentisi sürüyor. Kur, talep ve kredi koşullarındaki oynaklık ithalat maliyetlerini, fiyatlamayı, yatırımın finansmanını ve sözleşme endekslemelerini etkiliyor.

EU tech regulation and platform governance

Macron’s push for ‘transparent algorithms’ reinforces France’s hard line on EU digital rules (GDPR, DSA, DMA) amid transatlantic friction. Tech, e-commerce, and advertisers should expect higher compliance burdens, auditability demands, and enforcement attention affecting data, content, and competition.

Immigration crackdown labor tightness

Intensified enforcement is reducing foreign-born employment and discouraging participation, with estimates that 200,000 to over 1 million immigrants stopped working. Key sectors (agriculture, construction, services) face labor shortages, wage pressure, and slower demand growth in affected local economies.

IMF programme conditionality pressure

Late‑February IMF review will determine release of roughly $1.2bn under the $7bn EFF plus climate-linked RSF funding, tied to tax, energy and governance reforms. Slippage risks delayed disbursements, confidence shocks, and tighter import financing for businesses.

Suudi kaynaklı yenilenebilir yatırım dalgası

Suudi şirketlerinin yaklaşık 2 milyar dolarlık 2.000 MW güneş yatırımı ve toplam 5.000 MW planı, 25 yıllık alım garantileri ve %50 yerlilik şartı içeriyor. Ekipman tedariki, EPC, finansman ve yerli içerik uyumu; enerji fiyatları ve şebeke bağlantı kapasitesi üzerinde etki yaratabilir.

Energy transition financing and municipal arrears

Even with transmission separation, bankability depends on cost-reflective tariffs and fixing municipal payment arrears that undermine revenue certainty. Without a workable revenue model, private grid finance may demand higher returns or sovereign support, raising electricity costs and operational risks for industry.

China engagement versus U.S. backlash

Canada’s limited tariff adjustments with China (e.g., canola oil and EVs) are triggering U.S. political retaliation threats, including extreme tariff proposals. Firms exposed to China-linked supply chains face higher geopolitical friction, compliance scrutiny and potential forced rebalancing toward allied markets.

Critical minerals and export controls

Dependence on China for rare earths and intermediates is a strategic vulnerability amid tightening export controls. Companies should expect higher price volatility, longer lead times, and accelerated diversification into recycling, substitute materials and non‑Chinese supply agreements for manufacturing resilience.

Semiconductor mission and tech supply chains

India is accelerating its semiconductor roadmap (multiple approved units, focus on OSAT and ecosystem build-out). This expands opportunities in equipment, materials, design, and datacenter hardware, but timelines, infrastructure reliability, and export-control alignment remain key risks.

Third-country hubs targeted

EU proposals would sanction non-EU ports and facilitators—including Georgia’s Kulevi and Indonesia’s Karimun—and activate an anti-circumvention tool restricting exports to high-risk jurisdictions (e.g., Kyrgyzstan). Multinationals face expanded due diligence on transshipment, refining, and re-export chains.

North America China-evasion enforcement

U.S. officials are pressing partners to curb ‘non-market economy’ leakage into North American supply chains, spotlighting Chinese EVs and components. Companies may face tighter origin verification, audits, and customs enforcement, affecting sourcing strategies for autos, batteries, critical minerals, and electronics.

Regional Security and Trade Corridors

Turkey’s role in the Black Sea and Middle East connectivity agenda is growing, but regional conflicts keep logistics and insurance risks high. Disruptions can hit maritime routes, trucking corridors and transit times, affecting just-in-time supply chains and prompting inventory and routing diversification.

Investment unlock via omnibus law

Government is drafting an “omnibus” investment law to streamline land, permits, property rules, and investor visas, targeting ~THB900bn in realized investment from BOI-approved projects. If enacted, it could shorten project timelines, reduce regulatory friction, and boost greenfield expansion.

Labour constraints and mobilisation effects

Ongoing mobilisation and wartime displacement tighten labour supply and raise wage and retention pressures, especially in construction, logistics, and manufacturing. Companies should plan for training pipelines, cross-border staffing, and continuity arrangements to manage productivity and safety risks.

Foreign investment screening frictions

Investors report rising delays, cost and opacity in FIRB and related approvals, contributing to capital reallocation toward deregulating markets. For acquirers and infrastructure funds, timelines, conditions and sovereign-risk clauses are becoming central to deal strategy.

Energy supply shocks and LNG dependence

Israel’s indefinite halt of roughly 1.1 bcf/d gas exports heightens Egypt’s power and industrial fuel risk. Egypt is lining up regas capacity and up to 75 LNG cargoes (~$3.75bn), likely increasing energy costs and outage risks for factories and logistics.

Yaptırım uyumu ve ikincil riskler

ABD’nin İran ‘gölge filo’ ve tedarik ağlarına yönelik son yaptırımlarında Türkiye bağlantılı kişi/şirketler de anıldı. Bu, bankacılık, denizcilik, kimya ve makine ticaretinde KYC, ödeme kanalları ve yeniden ihracat kontrollerini sıkılaştırma ihtiyacını büyütüyor.

Reconfiguración automotriz y China

Cierres y reestructuraciones abren espacio a fabricantes chinos. BYD y Geely buscan comprar la planta Nissan‑Mercedes (230.000 unidades/año) mientras México intenta aplazar inversiones chinas para no tensionar negociaciones con EE. UU.; impactos en cadenas regionales y compliance de origen.

Critical minerals reshoring push

Australia is leveraging tax credits, strategic reserves and partner deals to build ex‑China supply chains in lithium and antimony. Closures like Kemerton show cost gaps versus China, shaping investment incentives, offtake contracts, and processing-location decisions.

Yaptırım uyumu: İran bağlantıları

ABD, İran’ın ‘gölge filo’ petrol taşımaları ve silah tedarik ağlarıyla bağlantılı Türkiye’deki şirket ve şahıslara yeni yaptırımlar uyguladı. Enerji, lojistik, kimya ve finans işlemlerinde karşı taraf riski yükseliyor; bankacılık uyumu, sigorta ve sevkiyat rotaları maliyet artışı yaratabilir.

Energy grid attacks and rationing

Repeated strikes on generation and transmission continue to drive blackouts and reliance on electricity imports. Manufacturing, cold chains, and data centers must invest in backup power, redundant connectivity, and flexible scheduling; energy-intensive projects face higher operating costs and execution risk.

Rising US Section 232/301 exposure

With Taiwan’s US trade surplus widely reported near $150–160B and 76% of exports falling under Section 232-relevant categories, companies face heightened risk of 301 investigations and security-based tariffs. This could reprice margins for non-chip exports and machinery.

Monetary easing amid weak demand

The Bank of Thailand cut the policy rate to 1.0% amid persistent low growth and 10 months of negative inflation, with a strong baht squeezing exporters. Lower borrowing costs help investment, but currency volatility and subdued credit—especially for SMEs—remain key risks.

Kredi koşulları ve makroihtiyati çerçeve

Kredi faizleri yüksek seyrediyor; para politikası aktarımı sınırlı, makroihtiyati tedbirlerin kademeli gevşemesi dezenflasyon hızına bağlı. Kart limitleri gibi adımlar iç talebi etkileyebilir. Şirketler için işletme sermayesi, vadeli satış ve stok finansmanı zorlaşıyor.

US–China decoupling accelerates

China tariffs remain high (reported 35%–50% by product) while new investigations target strategic sectors (EVs, rare earths, AI). Expect retaliatory measures, licensing delays, and relocation of manufacturing to Vietnam/India; also heightened scrutiny of transshipment and origin compliance.