Ports, roads and logistics competitiveness

Cai Mep–Thi Vai handled 711,429 TEU in Jan 2026 (+9% y/y) with >20 direct US/EU mainline services. New links—Bien Hoa–Vung Tau Expressway (Q2 2026) and Phuoc An Bridge (2027)—should cut truck times to 45–60 minutes, lowering landed costs.

Municipal service delivery and arrears

Municipal non-payment to Eskom exceeds R110bn, prompting potential supply interruptions in 14 municipalities, including industrial nodes. Weak local governance also drives water outages and emergency procurement risks. Businesses must plan for localised power/water interruptions, billing changes and higher compliance burdens at municipal level.

Labor shortages and wartime mobilization

Tight labor markets, migration constraints and war recruitment deepen shortages across industry and public services, pushing wage inflation and productivity pressure. Businesses encounter higher operating costs, staffing instability, and greater reliance on automation, outsourcing, or politically managed labor programs.

HPAL sulphur shock from Gulf

Lebih dari 75% impor sulfur RI (2025) berasal Timur Tengah; penutupan/risiko Selat Hormuz mengancam pasokan untuk HPAL. Stok pabrik hanya beberapa minggu–1 bulan; harga sekitar US$500/ton naik 10–15%. Produksi MHP/battery materials dan margin smelter berisiko.

Chabahar and regional corridor uncertainty

Shifting sanctions waivers and geopolitical pressure cloud investment and operations at Chabahar port and related transit corridors. Logistics planners face uncertainty over permitted cargoes, financing, and insurance, limiting Iran’s potential as a Eurasian trade bridge and raising reroute costs.

Tariff volatility and refunds

Court-ordered refunds of illegal IEEPA tariffs (est. US$168–182bn) and a temporary 10–15% global Section 122 tariff create pricing whiplash, contract disputes, and cashflow swings for importers, requiring rapid reclassification, landed-cost resets, and hedging.

US–China escalation and retaliation

Renewed US actions on tariffs, export controls and investment limits raise risk of Chinese countermeasures—rare-earth curbs, slowed soybean purchases, and other informal restrictions. Businesses should expect episodic de-risking, shipment frontloading, licensing delays, and sudden input shortages.

Volatilidade macro e trajetória da Selic

Projeções de mercado indicam IPCA 2026 em 3,91% e Selic no fim de 2026 em 12,13%, com câmbio projetado a R$5,45. Juros ainda elevados encarecem capital e hedge, enquanto desaceleração/queda abre janelas para M&A e financiamento de cadeias produtivas.

AI-driven memory and component inflation

AI data-center buildouts are tightening DRAM/HBM markets, with reported 2Q26 contract price hikes and widening spot-contract spreads. Electronics and OEM buyers should expect higher BOM costs, prioritize allocation agreements, and revisit inventory and pricing strategies for 2026 planning.

Sanctions and trade compliance tightening

Heightened Israel–Iran confrontation increases sanctions-screening, dual‑use export controls, and end‑use verification burdens. Multinationals face higher compliance costs and contractual risk around force majeure, payment rails, shipping documentation, and dealing with designated entities across the region.

Pembatasan pajak layanan digital

Klausul ART melarang pajak layanan digital yang diskriminatif terhadap perusahaan AS serta melarang bea atas transmisi elektronik, sambil membuka komitmen transfer data lintas batas. Ini menurunkan opsi kebijakan fiskal dan memengaruhi negosiasi dengan platform global, tetapi dapat mempercepat investasi cloud, pusat data, dan layanan digital.

Hormuz shock, energy imports risk

Strait of Hormuz disruption and US sanctions dynamics are reshaping India’s crude/LPG sourcing. India imports ~88–90% of oil; ~40–50% transits Hormuz. A US 30‑day waiver enabled Russian cargo offload, raising compliance and price volatility risks.

Inflation and rates volatility

Grocery inflation has re-accelerated (4.3% latest reading), while Middle East conflict risks renewed energy-price shocks. Markets have repriced expectations for Bank of England cuts, affecting sterling, financing costs, consumer demand and inventory planning. Businesses should stress-test margins, hedging and working-capital assumptions.

USMCA review and tariff volatility

High‑stakes 2026 USMCA/CUSMA review occurs amid continuing U.S. sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, lumber and more, and threats of broader duties. Expect pricing, sourcing and compliance adjustments, higher contract risk, and pressure to diversify export markets.

Supply-chain insurance and security pricing

War-risk insurance, specialized underwriting, and state-supported facilities remain critical for shipping and infrastructure work. Persistent attacks on ports and energy nodes keep premiums elevated, affecting Incoterms, inventory buffers, and working-capital needs for importers, exporters, and project contractors.

Inbound travel shifts and aviation capacity

Inbound tourism and passenger flows are changing with geopolitics: Narita reported foreign travelers down ~1% y/y in January while China routes fell ~30%. This affects retail, hospitality, aviation, and cargo belly-capacity planning, especially for Asia-focused consumer supply chains.

IMF program accelerates reforms

IMF completed Egypt’s reviews, unlocking about $2.3bn and extending the EFF to Dec 2026. Conditions emphasize exchange-rate flexibility, VAT/tax-base expansion, debt management, and faster state asset divestment. Reform delivery will shape regulatory predictability, competition, and market access for investors.

China export curbs escalate

Beijing’s dual‑use export restrictions and watchlists targeting 40 Japanese entities (including major defense/aerospace groups) heighten compliance risk, disrupt critical‑mineral inputs, and accelerate diversification away from China in sourcing, sales, and JV planning.

Iran war escalation risk

Fighting involving Iran raises sustained disruption risk for Israel-based operations: airspace closures, workforce mobilization, and physical damage. Israel’s Finance Ministry has warned losses around 9.4 billion shekels weekly under “red” restrictions, pressuring budgets, timelines, and continuity planning.

Trade facilitation and export competitiveness

Government prioritises export-led growth via trade facilitation and tariff rationalisation. Outcomes matter for textiles and other export sectors facing weak demand and high input costs. Faster border procedures, stable FX access and predictable duties can materially improve sourcing and delivery timelines.

Fuel subsidy rollback and costs

Egypt raised domestic fuel prices by roughly 14–30% amid war-driven energy costs; diesel rose ~17% to EGP 20.50/litre and vehicle gas jumped 30% to EGP 13/m³. Higher logistics and input costs will hit transport, manufacturing margins, and consumer demand, raising wage and pricing pressures.

Yen volatility and policy normalization

BoJ normalization and potential FX intervention are back in focus as yen weakens near 157–160/USD. Rate-hike timing hinges on wages and inflation. Volatility affects import costs, hedging, repatriation, and pricing for exporters and Japan-based multinationals.

Digital infrastructure and tax nexus

Hyperscaler data-centre investment is constrained by ‘permanent establishment’ tax uncertainty. Google has reportedly paused a proposed A$20bn AI/data-centre hub due to exposure to the 30% corporate rate. The outcome will shape cloud capacity, AI supply chains, and energy procurement.

Corporate governance reform accelerates

Toyota’s potential ~¥3tn cross‑shareholding unwind signals intensifying Tokyo Stock Exchange and regulator pressure to boost capital efficiency. Expect more buybacks, stake sales, and activism—altering control dynamics, partnership stability, and entry via equity positions.

Rail, border, and multimodal constraints

Repeated strikes and infrastructure bottlenecks push reliance onto rail and western land corridors, heightening congestion and lead-time uncertainty. Temporary train reroutes after substation and bridge hits illustrate fragility; businesses should plan redundancy, buffer stocks, and alternative routings.

US tariff uncertainty, investment pledge

Washington signaled tariffs could revert from 15% to 25% if Seoul’s legislature delays implementation of the Korea–US deal tied to a $350bn investment pledge. Firms face price volatility, rushed localization decisions, and heightened exposure to US non-tariff complaints.

Inflation distortions and tariff controls

Headline CPI remains negative for 11 months due to capped electricity (3.88 baht/unit) and cheaper fuel/food, while core inflation stays positive. Price controls and subsidy tools can change quickly if oil rises, complicating contract indexation and operating-cost forecasting.

Tariff regime legal reset

Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based tariffs, prompting a temporary 10–15% Section 122 global levy (150-day limit) and a pivot toward Sections 301/232. Expect volatile landed costs, contract repricing, and litigation-driven refund uncertainty for importers and suppliers.

FX volatility and capital flows

Geopolitical shocks have driven large foreign equity outflows and Taiwan-dollar weakness, with swaps pricing possible rate hikes. Currency swings affect import costs, hedging needs, and cross-border earnings translation, while tighter monetary conditions can lift borrowing costs for corporates.

USMCA review and North America rules

Formal USMCA review talks begin, with US seeking tighter rules of origin and anti-transshipment measures to block third-country inputs, plus dairy access and more domestic production. Automakers, machinery, and agri-food supply chains face documentation, content sourcing, and tariff cliff risks.

Central European Gas Transit Leverage

Germany’s first gas deliveries to Ukraine via Rügen LNG regasification routed through Poland highlight Germany’s rising role in regional energy flows. Cross-border capacity, regulatory coordination, and geopolitical shocks can directly affect industrial continuity and energy procurement in Germany.

US–Indonesia tariff deal uncertainty

Ratification and legal uncertainty around the US–Indonesia Reciprocal Trade Agreement (ART) and a flat US 15% tariff reshape market access. Rules-of-origin conditions (e.g., US cotton) and security-alignment clauses risk supply-chain redesign, compliance burdens, and sector-specific margin shocks.

Auto supply chains under reshoring

U.S. reshoring rhetoric and auto tariffs threaten Canada’s highly integrated vehicle supply chain where parts cross borders multiple times. With job losses already reported, firms face pressure to reconfigure North American footprints, rules-of-origin strategies, and supplier localization to preserve duty-free access.

Supply-chain labor and port fragility

US logistics remains vulnerable to port labor disputes, rail/trucking constraints, and regulatory bottlenecks, amplifying lead-time variability. Firms reliant on US gateways should diversify ports and modes, increase inventory buffers selectively, and harden contingency plans for peak-season disruptions.

Logistics and insurance cost surge

War-risk surcharges, marine insurance spikes (historically up to sevenfold), airspace closures, and Suez diversions increase end-to-end lead times and working capital needs. Korean exporters—especially SMEs—face higher contract-performance risk and should update Incoterms and buffer stocks.

Sanctions politics and energy transit

EU Russia-sanctions renewal faces periodic veto threats, linked to disputes over the Druzhba oil pipeline. Any weakening of sanctions enforcement or energy-transit disruptions can alter regional fuel pricing, shipping/insurance exposure, and compliance risk for firms operating across Europe.