Cybersecurity and data regulation tightening

Rising cyber and foreign-interference concerns are driving stricter critical-infrastructure security expectations and data-governance requirements. Multinationals should anticipate higher compliance costs, vendor-risk audits, and incident-reporting duties, influencing cloud sourcing, cross-border data flows, and M&A diligence.

Critical minerals investment opportunities, risks

Ukraine is advancing licensing and production-sharing models for strategic minerals, including lithium projects with large capex (reported up to US$700m initial; longer-term >US$1.8bn). Potential upside is high for EU battery supply chains, but war-risk insurance, permitting integrity, and infrastructure security remain decisive.

Data security and cross-border flows

China’s data-security regime continues tightening around cross-border transfers, localization, and security assessments for “important data.” Multinationals face higher compliance costs, audit exposure, and potential disruption to global IT architectures, analytics, HR systems, and cloud-based operations.

Automotive transition and competitiveness

Germany’s auto sector warns of a “location crisis”: 72% of suppliers are delaying, cutting or relocating investments; employment fell from 833,000 (2019) to ~726,000 (2025). Weak EV demand and Chinese competition disrupt suppliers, capex and supply chains.

EU–Thailand FTA acceleration

Bangkok and Brussels aim to conclude an EU–Thailand FTA by mid-2026, promising tariff reduction and investment momentum, especially in S-curve industries. However, compliance demands on environment, product standards and regulatory alignment will raise costs for lagging manufacturers and SMEs.

Inflation resurgence and rate volatility

Core inflation has re-accelerated (trimmed mean 0.9% q/q; 3.4% y/y), lifting expectations of near-term RBA tightening. Higher and more volatile borrowing costs raise hurdle rates, pressure consumer demand, and change hedging, funding, and FX assumptions for cross-border investors.

Energy security via long-term LNG

With gas about 60% of Thailand’s power mix and domestic supply shrinking, PTT, Egat and Gulf are locking in 15-year LNG contracts (e.g., 1 mtpa deals) to reduce spot-price volatility. Electricity tariff stability supports manufacturing, but contract costs and regulation remain key.

Gaza ceasefire uncertainty persists

Ceasefire implementation remains fragile, with intermittent strikes, aid-flow constraints and contentious governance/disarmament sequencing for post-war Gaza. Businesses face elevated security, force‑majeure and personnel-duty-of-care risks, plus potential reputational exposure and operational volatility tied to border closures.

Global trade remedies against overcapacity

Rising anti-dumping and safeguard actions targeting China-made steel and other industrial goods reflect persistent overcapacity and subsidization concerns. More tariffs, quotas, and investigations increase landed costs, disrupt procurement, and heighten retaliation risk across unrelated sectors, including commodities.

Regulatory and antitrust pressure on tech

Heightened antitrust and platform regulation increases compliance and deal uncertainty for digital firms operating in the U.S., affecting M&A, app store terms, advertising, and data practices. Global companies should anticipate litigation risk, remedy requirements, and operational separations.

Labor shortages and immigration bureaucracy

Germany needs about 300,000 skilled workers annually to maintain capacity, but slow, fragmented visa and qualification recognition processes delay hires by months. Tight labor markets raise operating costs and constrain scaling; multinationals should expand nearshoring, automation and structured talent pipelines.

Escalating US tariff regime

Average US import tariffs rose to about 13% in 2025 (from ~2.6% in 2024), with studies finding ~90–95% of costs borne domestically. Rapidly shifting sector tariffs (notably metals) heighten pricing volatility, contract risk, and sourcing reconfiguration.

Tougher sanctions enforcement compliance

Germany is tightening EU-sanctions enforcement after uncovering ~16,000 illicit Russia-bound shipments worth about €30m. Legislative reforms criminalize more violations and raise corporate penalties up to 5% of global turnover, increasing due‑diligence, screening and audit burdens.

Regulatory shocks at borders

Abrupt implementation of Decree 46 food-safety inspections stranded 700+ consignments (~300,000 tonnes) and left 1,800+ containers stuck at Cat Lai port, exposing clearance fragility. Firms should plan for sudden rule changes, longer lead times, higher testing costs and contingency warehousing.

Sanctions compliance incentives harden

OFSI now states penalties can be reduced up to 30% for self-reporting and cooperation. For online investing firms with cross-border clients, stronger screening, escalation and audit trails become strategic necessities as UK sanctions enforcement intensity rises.

Post-war security risk premium

Ceasefire conditions remain fragile and multi-front escalation risk persists (Gaza governance transition, northern border tensions, Yemen/Houthi threats). The resulting security risk premium affects insurance, travel, site selection, and contingency planning for multinationals operating in Israel.

Pemex: deuda, liquidez y socios

Pemex bajó deuda a US$84.500m (‑13,4%) pero Moody’s prevé pérdidas operativas promedio ~US$7.000m en 2026‑27 y dependencia fiscal. Emitió MXN$31.500m localmente para vencimientos 2026 y amplía contratos mixtos con privados; riesgo para proveedores y energía industrial.

Red Sea routing volatility persists

Carrier reversals on Suez/Red Sea transits underscore persistent maritime insecurity and schedule unreliability. For U.S. importers and exporters, this implies longer lead times, higher inventory buffers, potential demurrage/warehousing costs, and fluctuating ocean capacity and rates.

IMF and EU funding conditionality

Ukraine risks losing over US$115bn linked to IMF ‘benchmarks’ and the EU Ukraine Facility if reforms slip, including customs leadership and public investment management. Any delays could tighten liquidity, slow public payments, and postpone infrastructure and supplier contracts.

EV and automotive supply-chain shift

Thailand’s auto sector is pivoting toward electrification: 2025 production about 1.455m units (−0.9%), while BEV output surged (reported +632% to 70,914) and sales rose (+80%). Incentives and OEM localization change parts sourcing, standards, and competitor dynamics.

IMF-linked reforms and fiscal tightening

Ongoing engagement with the IMF and multilaterals supports macro stabilization but implies subsidy reforms, tax enforcement, and constrained public spending. These measures affect consumer demand, project pipelines, and pricing. Investors should track review milestones that can unlock financing and market confidence.

Semiconductor reshoring and export controls

Taiwan’s chip sector faces simultaneous pressures: US tariffs on certain advanced chips, tighter tech controls toward China, and major offshore fab investment. Firms must redesign compliance, IP protection, and capacity allocation while managing customer qualification and margin impacts.

Nuclear expansion and export-linked cooperation

Seoul is restarting new reactors (two 1.4GW units plus a 700MW SMR) while pursuing expanded US civil nuclear rights and fuel-cycle cooperation. This reshapes electricity price expectations, industrial siting, and opportunities for EPC, components, and uranium services.

Ports congestion and export delays

Transnet port performance remains among the world’s worst, with Cape Town fruit export backlogs reported around R1 billion amid wind stoppages, aging cranes, and staffing issues. Unreliable port throughput increases demurrage, spoils perishables, and disrupts contract delivery schedules.

Critical minerals leverage and reshoring

U.S. policy increasingly links trade and security to critical minerals and domestic capacity. Officials explicitly frame rare earths and magnets as weaponized supply points, reinforcing incentives for reshoring and allied sourcing, and pressuring firms to redesign inputs and secure non-China supply alternatives.

Sanctions escalation and enforcement

EU’s proposed 20th package expands beyond price caps toward a full maritime-services ban for Russian crude, adds banks and third-country facilitators, and tightens export/import controls. Compliance burdens, secondary-sanctions exposure, and abrupt counterparty cutoffs increase for trade, finance, and logistics.

Sanctions escalation and compliance spillovers

The EU’s proposed 20th Russia sanctions package expands energy, shipping, banking, and trade controls (including shadow-fleet listings and maritime services bans). Ukraine-linked firms face tighter due diligence on counterparties, routing, and dual-use items; enforcement pressure increases financing and logistics friction regionwide.

Migration tightening, labour shortages

Visa rule tightening is depressing skilled-worker and student inflows; analysts warn net migration could turn negative for the first time since 1993. Sectors like construction, care and health face hiring frictions, lifting wage pressure and constraining delivery timelines for UK operations.

Semiconductor push and critical minerals

Vietnam is scaling its role in packaging/testing while moving toward upstream capabilities, alongside efforts to develop rare earths, tungsten and gallium resources. Growing EU/US/Korea interest supports high-tech FDI, but talent, permitting, and technology-transfer constraints remain.

Financial liquidity chasing commodities

Ample liquidity amid weak real-economy returns is spilling into metals and gold trading, amplifying price volatility. With M2 growth (8.5% y/y) outpacing nominal GDP (3.9%), firms face unpredictable input costs, hedging needs, and potential administrative tightening if bubbles are suspected.

Frozen assets, litigation, retaliation risk

Debate over using immobilized Russian sovereign assets to back Ukraine financing is intensifying, alongside Russia’s lawsuits against Euroclear seeking about $232bn. Businesses face heightened expropriation/retaliation risk, asset freezes, and legal uncertainty for custodial holdings, claims, and arbitration enforceability.

Riesgos de seguridad y continuidad

La violencia criminal y extorsión siguen siendo un riesgo estructural para operaciones, transporte y personal, especialmente en corredores industriales y logísticos. Incrementa costos de seguros, seguridad privada y cumplimiento, y puede provocar interrupciones de proveedores y rutas, afectando puntualidad exportadora.

Digital markets enforcement on platforms

The UK CMA secured proposed commitments from Apple and Google to improve app-store fairness, limit use of rivals’ non‑public data, and expand interoperability. This signals tougher UK digital regulation, affecting monetization models, developer access, and platform compliance obligations.

Sanctions enforcement hits shipping

The UK is tightening Russia-related controls, including planned maritime services restrictions affecting Russian LNG and stronger action against shadow-fleet tankers. Heightened interdiction and compliance scrutiny increase legal, insurance, and chartering risk for shipping, traders, and financiers touching high-risk cargoes.

Border, visa and immigration digitisation

Home Affairs is expanding Electronic Travel Authorisation and pursuing a digital immigration overhaul using biometrics and AI to cut fraud and delays. If implemented well, it eases executive mobility and tourism; if not, it can create compliance bottlenecks and privacy litigation risk.

Political fragmentation drives policy volatility

Repeated no-confidence votes and reliance on Article 49.3 highlight governance fragility. Expect sudden regulatory shifts, slower permitting, and higher execution risk for infrastructure, energy, and industrial projects as parties bargain issue-by-issue and elections loom.